Coronavirus All Purpose Thread: moving on?

[GordonBlue]

It's been interesting to see how people are getting more and more comfortable with shedding their masks.
At the beginning of the month when I was out, I'd say it was 80% of people wearing masks.
Over the month, it's been changing to now I think 80% of people do not wear masks.

I'm ok with that, but I hope we don't see a decline in the amount of hand sanitizing stations out there.

[loob job]

I'm in Ontario, and it seems like everyone has covid now. Ontario tested 6,200 people yesterday only and 18% were positive vs. about 12% last week. We got rid of mask mandates a couple weeks ago, weird that its going up again, smh.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

We know there has been about 200,000 reported cases since Christmas most of which were Omicron. If the estimate of only 1 in 10 cases having been caught is accurate that means about 45% of the Alberta population has had Covid in the last three months.

That level of infection seems unlikely. The UK conducts regular serosurveys to check for N-protein antibodies (which indicate an infection) and as of the end of February, they were only seeing about 36% of samples having antibodies. And that would include the entire pandemic (minus anyone whose antibodies wanted to undetectable levels), not just the Omicron wave. So Alberta having 45% of the population infected in a 3-month period would be pretty unbelievable.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by loob job

I'm in Ontario, and it seems like everyone has covid now. Ontario tested 6,200 people yesterday only and 18% were positive vs. about 12% last week. We got rid of mask mandates a couple weeks ago, weird that its going up again, smh.

Ha, 18%! That's the dream. I don't think Alberta has tested that low since ealry December. Currently at 22%.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Another unknown factor is how long you can go before re-infection. Haven't seen much on that.

WHO is suggesting that while reinfection, in the case of BA.2, is possible the risk is pretty low and previous infection of Omicron provides strong protection.

https://www.who.int/news/item/22-02-...ublineage-ba.2

Originally Posted by opendoor

That level of infection seems unlikely. The UK conducts regular serosurveys to check for N-protein antibodies (which indicate an infection) and as of the end of February, they were only seeing about 36% of samples having antibodies. And that would include the entire pandemic (minus anyone whose antibodies wanted to undetectable levels), not just the Omicron wave. So Alberta having 45% of the population infected in a 3-month period would be pretty unbelievable.

Well I definitely can't tell you what the situation has been like but the reported cases in Alberta are publicly available and our CMOH has repeatedly stated that they believe testing is/was only capturing 1 in 10 positive cases. It is possible that estimate is wrong but from what we have been told by our experts the calculation works out to ~45%.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

WHO is suggesting that while reinfection, in the case of BA.2, is possible the risk is pretty low and previous infection of Omicron provides strong protection.

https://www.who.int/news/item/22-02-...ublineage-ba.2

Ya, I looked for something newer, as Omicron had only been around 3 months at that point but I haven't seen anything.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Well I definitely can't tell you what the situation has been like but the reported cases in Alberta are publicly available and our CMOH has repeatedly stated that they believe testing is/was only capturing 1 in 10 positive cases. It is possible that estimate is wrong but from what we have been told by our experts the calculation works out to ~45%.

Sure, but they're just guessing. People used those multipliers all through the pandemic to come up with ridiculously high infection rates, but basically every time there was an actual measurement through blood testing for antibodies, the prevalence was lower than estimated. Granted, antibody prevalence tells more about how things were 2 months ago than today, but the point still remains.

If the 45% figure was correct, that would imply a ~0.4% hospitalization rate and a ~0.04% mortality rate for COVID in Alberta in that span (including incidentals). If you apply a similar rate to other countries, you come up with unbelievably high infection levels that aren't consistent with the evidence (i.e. if 70-90% of the UK population was infected during the Omicron wave as those numbers would imply, then why are estimated cases and hospitalizations back up to their prior peak again?). So either Alberta has a an exceptionally low hospitalization and mortality rate per infection compared to comparable jurisdictions (which didn't really manifest itself in prior waves), or their 10% ascertainment estimate is too low.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Ya, I looked for something newer, as Omicron had only been around 3 months at that point but I haven't seen anything.

I don't think reinfection from the same (or very similar) variant in a short time frame (i.e. months) is much of a concern, regardless of the variant.

The long-term issue is that it looks basically inevitable that we'll see another immune escape variant in the coming years, and there isn't much reason to suspect that it will necessarily share Omicron's relative mildness. The next variants of concern will need to be antigenically different enough from Omicron in order to effectively spread, and with those changes come the very real possibility of severity increasing. Ideally we'll have enough existing immunity to blunt the effects of any new variants considerably. But if you combine the reduced protection against severe disease from vaccination/immunity that we saw with Omicron, and couple it with a more severe variant, even that existing immunity might not be enough to avoid significant mitigation measures in the future. We really need to be working on improved 2nd generation vaccines, but it seems like the interest and funding for that has dried up a bit.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/china-...down-1.6400881

Shanghai recorded 4,477 new cases on Monday, all but 95 of them asymptomatic. Despite a nationwide surge, numbers of new COVID-19 deaths have remained low, with two more added on March 20 for a total of 4,638

Hearing how China was shutting down Shanghai was a bit disconcerting. But, then I read the above. That's a crazy stat. 98% of cases are asymptomatic. For me, that's good news as BA.2 is becoming dominant (or is already) in Alberta.

[Fuzz]

Spoiler!

https://covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca/

So our most recent Calgary sewage data is March 24th(green). The difference between the 2 yellow data points is 2 days. So for all we know, we could be matching our previous peak, but we just have no idea. It's tough to make personal decisions about what is safe when we have really ####ty data once a week.

Given Kenney's political misery, I don't think we can expect anything to rock the boat before maybe May?

[opendoor]

Regarding China, asymptomatic at the time of testing doesn't mean it stays that way. If they're doing a testing blitz and testing basically everyone multiple times while the number of cases is in a fast upswing, they're likely catching tons of pre-symptomatic infections. I believe China also uses a ridiculously high cycle count threshold for detecting cases, so they're more likely to catch cases that we wouldn't even consider infections, as well as ones where the person's immune system largely neutralized the virus (PCRs can't distinguish between viable and killed virions).

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So our most recent Calgary sewage data is March 24th(green). The difference between the 2 yellow data points is 2 days. So for all we know, we could be matching our previous peak, but we just have no idea. It's tough to make personal decisions about what is safe when we have really ####ty data once a week.

Given Kenney's political misery, I don't think we can expect anything to rock the boat before maybe May?

I can see why they don't want to report (increasingly inaccurate) case numbers every day, but there's no reason they can't be reporting hospitalizations regularly, because it's going to be an ongoing issue. The UK currently has less than half their prior case peak, but they're probably a few days from setting a new record for COVID hospitalizations.

[burn_this_city]

We got hit over the weekend. Friday night kid started shaking with a fever of 39, and threw up in bed like a fountain at 11pm. My wife and I didn't test positive until yesterday and we feel pretty awful now. We had managed to dodge it until now, but I knew our time was coming. Boosted in December but I'm sure its waning by now, kid was too young to ever be vaccinated.

[Amethyst]

I've stopped at a couple pharmacies lately to get rapid test kits and no one has them anymore. I guess we're doubling down on the "covid is over," message.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Amethyst

I've stopped at a couple pharmacies lately to get rapid test kits and no one has them anymore. I guess we're doubling down on the "covid is over," message.

I got 2 boxes last week at a Rexall.
they didn't even ask for our healthcare number, but just handed them to us with our prescriptions when we asked for the tests.

[REDVAN]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

We got hit over the weekend. Friday night kid started shaking with a fever of 39, and threw up in bed like a fountain at 11pm. My wife and I didn't test positive until yesterday and we feel pretty awful now. We had managed to dodge it until now, but I knew our time was coming. Boosted in December but I'm sure its waning by now, kid was too young to ever be vaccinated.

Best wishes. You are not alone.



We also got sick last week, our first bout with covid... after 2 years, surprised we held out this long- and honestly, at least since school had started last fall, we were back to pretty much "normal" life.



Our 7 month old started coughing Wednesday. Wife and I with the dry/scratchy throats Thursday & Friday. Saturday I had pretty tough headache/body ache/tiredness. Sunday it got a bit better, but the cough started. Wife was always slightly less severe than me. Monday both even better, cough intermittent. Today I feel like a human being again, just in time for our 7 year old to start coughing. She was doing the puking thing BEFORE the baby was sick last week, and she had tested negative then so I thought it was a different thing... maybe not. Weird that she is now getting the cough though.



My wife and I lost our taste and smell yesterday. I was feeling better so I took a shower, and I could not smell the smelly soaps. Reading online about that is scary, it could be back in a few days, weeks, months, or never



The worst part (so far) has been the baby coughing at night. It interrupts our her rest, our rest, and my mental well-being. I'm so worried that she'll need some help that any noise wakes me.



Anyway, I am 3x vaccinated, wife 2x, 7 year old none yet, and baby none. The only thing different lately is that we've not been wearing masks...

[GGG]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Sure, but they're just guessing. People used those multipliers all through the pandemic to come up with ridiculously high infection rates, but basically every time there was an actual measurement through blood testing for antibodies, the prevalence was lower than estimated. Granted, antibody prevalence tells more about how things were 2 months ago than today, but the point still remains.

If the 45% figure was correct, that would imply a ~0.4% hospitalization rate and a ~0.04% mortality rate for COVID in Alberta in that span (including incidentals). If you apply a similar rate to other countries, you come up with unbelievably high infection levels that aren't consistent with the evidence (i.e. if 70-90% of the UK population was infected during the Omicron wave as those numbers would imply, then why are estimated cases and hospitalizations back up to their prior peak again?). So either Alberta has a an exceptionally low hospitalization and mortality rate per infection compared to comparable jurisdictions (which didn't really manifest itself in prior waves), or their 10% ascertainment estimate is too low.

Denmark post BA2 has over 3 million infections so 50% infection rates aren’t unreasonable to be at.

[Drak]

Relatives in Calgary now have Covid after attending their daughter’s hockey game. A colleague of my wife’s now has Covid after attending a concert in Vancouver.

[Snuffleupagus]

Serious question, does anyone here know anybody who has been hospitalised because of covid in the last 2-3 months? I ask because between my GF and myself we know or know of over 70 people who got it with varying degree's of sickness but with the worst being a bad cold or a moderate flu but most just sore throat and minor cold that lasts a couple of days.

[Fuzz]

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...evere-outcomes

Hospitalization case rate is 4.1 per hundred, and skews heavily to over 70, so if you don't know a lot of people over 70 with covid, you may not know someone hospitalized for it.