Quebec Election

[BlackEleven]

So I don't know if its just me that's interested in the Quebec Election (since I live here), but there are some pretty surprising results, which may be of interest nation-wide.

-The Liberals did manage to win, but hold the first minorty government since 1878.

-The biggest surprise, at least for me, was the ADQ finishing second, only 4 seats behind the Liberals. They'll be the official opposition.

-The PQ finished third. Not only did they not win, they didn't even get official opposition status. Bad news for Quebec separatists.

-About the only victory the PQ can claim is knocking off Jean Charest in his own riding. So the premier didn't even win his riding. Not good news for Quebec Liberals.

-Lisa Lapointe (wife of famous separatist Jacques Parizeau) managed to win a seat.

-Support for the Green party doubled, in terms of popular vote. They didn't win any seats.

All in all, the PQ were the biggest losers in this election. The ADQ were the biggest winners, finishing quite a bit ahead of where anyone expected them to be. The Liberals, despite winning the election, will also be disapointed with the results. Seems that both the Liberals and the PQ underestimated the ADQ.

Any other thoughts?

CBC coverage:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes...s20070326.html

[Resolute 14]

Three parties in a virtual dead heat for seats? How much you want to bet this government doesnt last even a year?

Is there a chance that the Liberals and ADQ can work together to maintain a stable government?

[BlackEleven]

Originally Posted by Snakeeye

Is there a chance that the Liberals and ADQ can work together to maintain a stable government?

Unlikely. The ADQ came out before the election and said they would not form an alliance with either the PQ or the Liberals.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes...6.html?ref=rss

And it would probably be a bad move for him (Dumont) even if he did allign himself with one of the other parties. Both the PQ and Liberals are hugely unpopular in Quebec right now, and it would really piss off a lot of the ADQ supporters if some sort of alliance was formed.

Most of the ADQ MNAs (member of national assembly, in Quebec ) have very little political experience and now they will have a chance to gain some as the official opposition. This really is the best case scenario for the ADQ.

[BlackEleven]

Another interesting point I didn't mention in the original point is Quebec politics seem to be leaning further right, in a traditionally left-leaning province.

The ADQ is the furthest right party in Quebec and they made a gain of 37 seats this election. On a federal level, the Conservatives gained 10 seats in Quebec from the previous election.

[peter12]

Wow, a fiscally conservative party with a leader who takes some after Preston Manning as the Official Opposition in Quebec. Maybe the times they are a'changin'.

[Flames89]

Can someone give me the coles notes version on the ADQ? What are they about?

Thank god for the fall of the PQ. The worst thing that coudl happen to Quebec. I lived there for 5 years, and am looking at a potential job there - and if they were in power, I would have no interest.

[BlackEleven]

Originally Posted by Flames89

Can someone give me the coles notes version on the ADQ? What are they about?

Thank god for the fall of the PQ. The worst thing that coudl happen to Quebec. I lived there for 5 years, and am looking at a potential job there - and if they were in power, I would have no interest.

Here are three of their big campaign promises:

• A one per cent reduction in government spending.
• An increase in private health-care delivery.
• A reduction in the number of Quebecers on welfare.

They're also against Quebec separation.

Here's a nice summary by CBC:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes...dq-070326.html

Official website here (some English available, but its mostly French):
http://adqaction.com/main.php?lang=EN

[LockedOut]

Originally Posted by BlackEleven

About the only victory the PQ can claim is knocking off Jean Charest in his own riding. So the premier didn't even win his riding. Not good news for Quebec Liberals.

Reading the article it says Charest did win his seat with 37% and 2nd place PQ with 36.6%.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by LockedOut

Reading the article it says Charest did win his seat with 37% and 2nd place PQ with 36.6%.

Yeah, I was just going to post that. I believe by the skin of his teeth, but Charest did get re-elected.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories

Charest himself survived a tough personal challenge from the PQ in his Sherbrooke seat.

[Resolute 14]

That story definitely changed then, becuase when BlackEleven posted this thread, CTV was reporting that he was defeated.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Snakeeye

That story definitely changed then, becuase when BlackEleven posted this thread, CTV was reporting that he was defeated.

I wouldn't be surprised by that, as Charest looks to be REALLY lucky that he is sitting back in office today:

For his part, Charest won his riding with nearly 37 per cent of the popular vote, ahead of the PQ's Claude Forgues, who finished with 36.6 per cent of the popular vote.

From: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes...s20070326.html

Now that is close. I don't know how much that translates into actual votes (i.e. vote difference), but.....any chance of a recount?

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

Now that is close. I don't know how much that translates into actual votes (i.e. vote difference), but.....any chance of a recount?

Ok maybe not a recount, here is the actual vote difference according to CBC.ca

http://www.cbc.ca/quebecvotes2007/riding/111

Jean Charest
Votes: 13136
Percent: 36.56%

Claude Forgues PQ
Votes: 11804
Percent: 32.85%

[BlackEleven]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

Yeah, I was just going to post that. I believe by the skin of his teeth, but Charest did get re-elected.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories

Charest himself survived a tough personal challenge from the PQ in his Sherbrooke seat.

Yeah, that is weird. When I went to bed the news was going non-stop with Charest being defeated in his own riding -- it was one of the top stories. I wonder if they did a recount or something.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by BlackEleven

Yeah, that is weird. When I went to bed the news was going non-stop with Charest being defeated in his own riding -- it was one of the top stories. I wonder if they did a recount or something.

Maybe just not all polls had been reported, votes counted, etc....?

[FanIn80]

The media often uses statistical formulae on election nights to "predict" the winners. Sometimes you get certain "gung-ho" outlets that like to run with those predictions.

All-in-all... this has to look good for the Conservatives, and maybe put a little fear into Dion.

(yes, I know this was a provincial election)

[Bobblehead]

Interesting that this is considered a win for fiscal conservatives in Quebec. The recent Federal budget had a lot of money for Quebec, and there was quite a bit of spending (for a party that is Conservative).

It just seems liek a bit of a disconnect - Quebec is considered fairly liberal (I'm not speaking political party), but in this election has shown a fiscally conservative vein. Will that sentiment extend federally (as some in this thread have surmised), or will the BQ adopt more fiscally conservative policies in pursuit of this voting block and then point at the CPC as attempting to buy Quebec?

A pretty interesting result, both provincially and perhaps federally.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

Interesting that this is considered a win for fiscal conservatives in Quebec. The recent Federal budget had a lot of money for Quebec, and there was quite a bit of spending (for a party that is Conservative).

It just seems liek a bit of a disconnect - Quebec is considered fairly liberal (I'm not speaking political party), but in this election has shown a fiscally conservative vein. Will that sentiment extend federally (as some in this thread have surmised), or will the BQ adopt more fiscally conservative policies in pursuit of this voting block and then point at the CPC as attempting to buy Quebec?

A pretty interesting result, both provincially and perhaps federally.

I think that its really hard to say why the vote went the way it did. Sure the fiscal conservatives appear to have done well, but it could be a vote against the other two as much as a vote for their policies.

I think that all of the parties are "fiscally conservative" now anyway; none would run a deficit (maybe the NDP, but even their plans are not to do so).

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

It just seems liek a bit of a disconnect - Quebec is considered fairly liberal (I'm not speaking political party), but in this election has shown a fiscally conservative vein. Will that sentiment extend federally (as some in this thread have surmised), or will the BQ adopt more fiscally conservative policies in pursuit of this voting block and then point at the CPC as attempting to buy Quebec?

An interesting thing about the ADQ (i.e. Mario Dumont etc). I was reading an article stating that they are of the belief that "we already accomodate etc for newcomers enough, likely too much" (really paraphrasing). The idea was that this likely played a good part in getting them elected, as there has been somewhat of an upsurge in Quebec re: this (according to the article). To give a rough parallel, it was to the politician in France (Jean-marie Pen? or something like that? I don't know, his name escapes me at the momment) who is very anti-immigrants etc. Not that Dumont/the ADQ was nearly to that extent, but that there was a belief that way (in a lot more moderate way). Again this is just paraphrasing a newspaper article I read while sitting in a waiting room, so take it for what it is worth.

[BlackEleven]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

Interesting that this is considered a win for fiscal conservatives in Quebec. The recent Federal budget had a lot of money for Quebec, and there was quite a bit of spending (for a party that is Conservative).

It just seems liek a bit of a disconnect - Quebec is considered fairly liberal (I'm not speaking political party), but in this election has shown a fiscally conservative vein. Will that sentiment extend federally (as some in this thread have surmised), or will the BQ adopt more fiscally conservative policies in pursuit of this voting block and then point at the CPC as attempting to buy Quebec?

A pretty interesting result, both provincially and perhaps federally.

Its a win for small-c conservatives only. I'm sure the federal Conservatives would have much prefered a Liberal majority based on Charest ties to both the federal Conservative party and with Harper himself. Even though Charest flies the Liberal flag if you look at his policies and what he has done over the last term it seems much more fitting of a conservative government. This is the main cause of the dwindling popularity of the Liberal party in Quebec, particularly the union-busting that has been going on.

As for the PQ, the party is a complete mess. They haven't really had any sort of a leader with any charisma or intelligence since Parizeau. Bosiclair is the perfect example of that as a man who allegedly imbezzled thousands of dollars as a cabinet minister to fund his (self-admitted) cocaine habit. Hardly an ideal candiate on paper for a provincial leader. Not only that but there is a ton of squabbling within the party and no open can agree on anything except the fact that they want to separate. Their whole campaign is based on nothing but that.

The ADQ is the new player in the picture, so I think they got thrown a lot of protest votes from people that are hugely fed up with the other two parties. I don't think this signals a shift to the right as much as it indicates a growing disatisfaction with the status quo. I think this election was meant as a message to Charest who was pounding on his desk shouting about the Liberals having a majority -- people were upset at the Liberals for their arrogance much like people were upset at the federal Liberals for their arogance in the last federal election.

I think the big irony in the situation is that people are fed up with the the Liberals for leaning too far right, so the throw protest votes at party that leans even further right (on paper anyway, we'll see how they act in the coming weeks).

As far as the BQ is concerned, they have the luxury of sitting back and seeing how all this unfolds and whether it is just a protest vote or the political trend is shifting to the right in this province before they have to make any big political decisions.

My 2 cents.

[Devils'Advocate]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that its really hard to say why the vote went the way it did. Sure the fiscal conservatives appear to have done well, but it could be a vote against the other two as much as a vote for their policies.

*ding* *ding* *ding* And *THAT* is the right answer.

Quebecers are pissed off at inept PQ and Liberal governments doing everything they can to ignore the real needs of the province.

I live in Ottawa, so I work with many people from Gatineau and they seemed to be of the same opinion - the ADQ do not represent the world view of most people from the province; they simply were a protest vote against two parties that did nothing but drive the province further into the hole that they have been trying to climb out of for over a century.