Russia invades Ukraine

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by icarus

Met an American guy from Houston last night, he seemed to be firmly on the side of the Russians and even suggested he'd rather have Putin as POTUS than Biden. Was an eye-opening conversation to say the least.

Amazing isn't it?

[playmaker]

Support for NATO membership rises to 62% in Finland:
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...n-finland.html

[malcolmk14]

My father-in-law is Russian and immigrated in 1995. I like to ask him his perspective on this stuff as he consumes primarily Russian media and I’m always non-judgmental. I’m legitimately curious to know how Russian media is selling this war to their people and how it’s coming across. I don’t know all of the details, as I don’t follow Eastern European politics too closely, but in general he said:

There is an arm or faction of the Ukraine military called the Azov Battalion who has slowly been amassing power in Ukraine politics since 2014. This is the primary group Putin is concerned with removing.

The Azov Battalion is defending Mariupol and Russia has effectively trapped most of them there. Russia has provided humanitarian corridors to get civilians out of Mariupol and now it’s basically just these Azov people left so they’re going to level it now.

Putin is using this Azov arm as a scapegoat to exert more control over Ukraine, he predicts they will take Kiev within 2 weeks, “demilitarize” the country, and install a puppet government.

His prediction for when all this is over is that Russia exerts their power, does what they want in Ukraine, and eventually the west just kind of forgets about it and drops sanctions. Putin continues on as President and everyone just kind of moves on.

He buys the Russian propaganda hook line and sinker so it’s really interesting getting his perspective. I don’t try to change his mind, I just show him articles or resources that show the western perspective of things he talks about and let him make his own decisions about what he believes. Anyway, he thinks Putin will survive all this and the world will just let Ukraine go.

[GGG]

He is probably correct about the outcome.

Ukraine falls, the west moves on.

[eddly]

Delete.

One day I will figure out how to post YouTube videos… today is not that day…

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GGG

He is probably correct about the outcome.

Ukraine falls, the west moves on.

First of all, Russia winning in Ukraine currently looks very far away. The Ukrainian army currently has more men and equipment than when the war started, and there's still a ton of foreign military aid that hasn't even arrived yet. There's so many volunteers from abroad that Ukraine has started to limit who they even want to bring in.

The idea that the west might forget Ukraine is just delusional. The whole reason this war is happening is because Russia wanted to prove that when it's threatening it's neighbors with war, it's not bluffing. Message received. Russia has declared it WANTS to be our enemy, now and until the foreseeable future, that it will not allow other countries to decide for their own future unless it's too weak to do much. It'll take a generation change for people to even start forgetting this message.

Europe is also currently flooding with millions of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom will stay in their new country as a permanent reminder of the callousness and savagery of Russia. Ukrainian cities will show the marks of Russia's attack for decades, and the war is very far from over. Russia has threatened to start doing airstrikes in neighboring countries to stop the flow of weapons, and my guess is they will eventually do it.

The sanctions have relatively little do with Ukraine and everything to do with our own safety. Putins regime has threatened numerous countries in Europe with military strikes and/or nukes, everyone from Sweden to Slovakia. We are hitting back with what we have because we can't afford Russia to succeed and build itself back up.

Sure, United States news cycle might move on, but the attitudes towards Russia in Europe have changed permanently.

[White Out 403]

Unless the Chinese re-supply Russia, Russia can't win. They will either find a diplomatic solution that allows them to save face, or, they will level Ukraine with awful weapons and become a pariah state on the level of North Korea. Only that idiot Modi in India fully supports him.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Itse

First of all, Russia winning in Ukraine currently looks very far away. The Ukrainian army currently has more men and equipment than when the war started, and there's still a ton of foreign military aid that hasn't even arrived yet. There's so many volunteers from abroad that Ukraine has started to limit who they even want to bring in.

The idea that the west might forget Ukraine is just delusional. The whole reason this war is happening is because Russia wanted to prove that when it's threatening it's neighbors with war, it's not bluffing. Message received. Russia has declared it WANTS to be our enemy, now and until the foreseeable future, that it will not allow other countries to decide for their own future unless it's too weak to do much. It'll take a generation change for people to even start forgetting this message.

Europe is also currently flooding with millions of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom will stay in their new country as a permanent reminder of the callousness and savagery of Russia. Ukrainian cities will show the marks of Russia's attack for decades, and the war is very far from over. Russia has threatened to start doing airstrikes in neighboring countries to stop the flow of weapons, and my guess is they will eventually do it.

The sanctions have relatively little do with Ukraine and everything to do with our own safety. Putins regime has threatened numerous countries in Europe with military strikes and/or nukes, everyone from Sweden to Slovakia. We are hitting back with what we have because we can't afford Russia to succeed and build itself back up.

Sure, United States news cycle might move on, but the attitudes towards Russia in Europe have changed permanently.

There's a joke going down here is that Russian's "operation for regime change" is going perfectly according to plan. The plan is to dig in and wait for Zelenskiy's term to run out. That's probably Russia's best bet to remove him

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Pointman

There's a joke going down here is that Russian's "operation for regime change" is going perfectly according to plan. The plan is to dig in and wait for Zelenskiy's term to run out. That's probably Russia's best bet to remove him

I lol'd. Thanks.

[GGG]

I agree that the attitude toward Russia has changed permanently. But since NATO refuses to get involved eventually Kiev falls and a puppet regime is installed and Putin declares victory.

Russia switches to supplying China with O+G as Europe moves away from it. Putin survives by declaring it is western economic sanctions that are damaging Russia and not him.

Even Sanctions will weaken once civilians as the big multinationals try to recover losses.

To clarify though what I mean about him being right is the Ukraine is reduced to several puppet governments controlled by Russia with Donbas and Crimea as separate states. Perhaps western Ukraine left independent with Liev as Capital.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Unless the Chinese re-supply Russia, Russia can't win. They will either find a diplomatic solution that allows them to save face, or, they will level Ukraine with awful weapons and become a pariah state on the level of North Korea. Only that idiot Modi in India fully supports him.

Many European countries have started to go through all of their international and domestic policies from the starting point that the possibility of Russian aggression needs to be taken into account in everything we do.

North Korea only wishes it had as much attention.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1505576153804800000

[Fuzz]

Well that's one way to make sure the Generals don't overthrow you.

[CaptainCrunch]

I'm just reminded of the quote from the original Red Dawn, not the crappy remake.

Col. Andy Tanner: You think you're tough for eating beans every day? There's half a million scarecrows in Denver who'd give anything for one mouthful of what you got. They've been under siege for about three months. They live on rats and sawdust bread and sometimes... on each other. At night, the pyres for the dead light up the sky. It's medieval.

At this point for Putin and the Russians its not about winning in a conventional sense, they've lost all inititive, they've lost of ton of equipment. They probably have a moral problem (Though its tough to figure out how big that is because of the propaganda war)


They've lost 5 Generals and god knows how many other senior leaders. They're struggling to fuel and feed their army.



On the other side Ukraine's moral seems high, they do seem to be getting resupplied. But they're still on the ####ty end of things when it comes to numbers and attrition. They don't have the military strength to push out the Russian's on multiple fronts.



So yeah, we're heading into a medieval War of attrition, its clear that Putin isn't going to back down or throw his hands up and leave. The Ukrainians are moving into that stage of hardcore punishing on a unit and subunit level.



So what's the solution for Russia? Stand off, and just pound infrastructure and civillian centers from a distance and brutalize civillians until Ukraine agree's to give the Russian some victories, ie neutrallity, caps on their military etc.


What the solution for Ukraine, a couple of them. Dig in, move to more guerella tactics of stinging and moving, not to seize real estate, or even push Russian's back, but to draw blood and to kill and brutalize the Russian's that are fighting there.



The sanctions, Putin doesn't care. Going after the Oligarch's Putin doesn't care, he's one of the richest men on the planet, and he's not taking advice from them, but from his circle of trusted advisors that aren't going to put a cap in his ass. The Russian people rising up and deposing them, I don't know if that's going to happen, things feel like they're starting to settle a bit in Russia.


This is medieval, and time is really on Russia's side more then Ukraine.

[kn]

My wife reacquainted with a “friend” here in Calgary. This woman is originally from Kazakhstan but has lived in Canada for ten years with her husband and three children, two of which were born here. She has never lived in Russia and it seems her priorities in life are an expensive house, manicures and the latest clothes.

She is pro-Russia and pro-Putin. No argument puts even a dent in her worldview. The war has been exaggerated by Western media. Putin is a great leader and it’s actually better that Russia is now forced to become self-sufficient and not dependent on any other country. She switched the place where she gets her nails done because there were too many Ukrainians there and “all they do is talk about the war”.

She is anti-vaccines and was on 17th avenue with the other idiots complaining about our lack of freedoms. During the height of the pandemic, she actually said that Russia has more freedom than Canada. When my wife was in Kazakhstan, this woman told her that she should stay there because “you couldn’t believe what’s happening here (Canada).” Apparently Putin has offered to fast-track Russian citizenship and she’s all excited now for everyone in the family to get one.

When our families get together, things are fine because we avoid politics and current affairs as much as possible. I’ve become friends with her husband as we’re both software developers in O&G and my daughter enjoys playing with their children. I don’t want to burn these relationships but I wish I could drop her in the middle of Mariupol.

Unfortunately, she is not the only person we’ve come across in Calgary with similar views and my wife has broken relationships with two other women out of frustration.

If this is indicative of people in Russia, there will not be an organic revolution in our lifetimes.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by kn

My wife reacquainted with a “friend” here in Calgary. This woman is originally from Kazakhstan but has lived in Canada for ten years with her husband and three children, two of which were born here. She has never lived in Russia and it seems her priorities in life are an expensive house, manicures and the latest clothes.

She is pro-Russia and pro-Putin. No argument puts even a dent in her worldview. The war has been exaggerated by Western media. Putin is a great leader and it’s actually better that Russia is now forced to become self-sufficient and not dependent on any other country. She switched the place where she gets her nails done because there were too many Ukrainians there and “all they do is talk about the war”.

She is anti-vaccines and was on 17th avenue with the other idiots complaining about our lack of freedoms. During the height of the pandemic, she actually said that Russia has more freedom than Canada. When my wife was in Kazakhstan, this woman told her that she should stay there because “you couldn’t believe what’s happening here (Canada).” Apparently Putin has offered to fast-track Russian citizenship and she’s all excited now for everyone in the family to get one.

When our families get together, things are fine because we avoid politics and current affairs as much as possible. I’ve become friends with her husband as we’re both software developers in O&G and my daughter enjoys playing with their children. I don’t want to burn these relationships but I wish I could drop her in the middle of Mariupol.

Unfortunately, she is not the only person we’ve come across in Calgary with similar views and my wife has broken relationships with two other women out of frustration.

If this is indicative of people in Russia, there will not be an organic revolution in our lifetimes.

Before war, her opinion wasn't that far off. Russian's "lack of freedom" was quite exaggerated and overall quality of life significantly underplayed. My cousin was born in New York and my wife spend more than a year in USA and we have seriously considered immigration so we gathered a lot of info and I have visited some countries, including Canada, to see it firsthand. So, I have a bit of an idea about English-speaking world and I
confident that before war Moscow was a very good city to live in and Russia was nowhere near a totalitarian caricature state some western media made it out to be. Now of course this horrible awful war has changed everything. But that woman probably didn't pay much attention to the war itself, so she is still living in the past a bit.

[Harry Lime]

Russia did take some major strides in standard of living since 1989. The unfortunate result of unfettered capitalism is the rise of an oligarchy, which is little more than a dictatorship, with extra steps. There are quite a few in America that want that to happen there as well. Some of that explains the news on Fox.

[JoseCuervo]

Originally Posted by GGG

I agree that the attitude toward Russia has changed permanently. But since NATO refuses to get involved eventually Kiev falls and a puppet regime is installed and Putin declares victory.

Russia switches to supplying China with O+G as Europe moves away from it. Putin survives by declaring it is western economic sanctions that are damaging Russia and not him.

Even Sanctions will weaken once civilians as the big multinationals try to recover losses.

To clarify though what I mean about him being right is the Ukraine is reduced to several puppet governments controlled by Russia with Donbas and Crimea as separate states. Perhaps western Ukraine left independent with Liev as Capital.

Every military analyst out there is saying there is no chance Kyiv will fall. Russias aggressive phase of the war is over… for now. Now they will dig in and try to consolidate.

In fact the institute for the study of war has gone as far as claiming victory for Ukraine in the first phase of the war.

“ NEW: Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial #Russian campaign of this war. Its culmination is creating conditions of stalemate throughout most of #Ukraine.”

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by malcolmk14

My father-in-law is Russian and immigrated in 1995. I like to ask him his perspective on this stuff as he consumes primarily Russian media and I’m always non-judgmental. I’m legitimately curious to know how Russian media is selling this war to their people and how it’s coming across. I don’t know all of the details, as I don’t follow Eastern European politics too closely, but in general he said:

There is an arm or faction of the Ukraine military called the Azov Battalion who has slowly been amassing power in Ukraine politics since 2014. This is the primary group Putin is concerned with removing.

The Azov Battalion is defending Mariupol and Russia has effectively trapped most of them there. Russia has provided humanitarian corridors to get civilians out of Mariupol and now it’s basically just these Azov people left so they’re going to level it now.

Putin is using this Azov arm as a scapegoat to exert more control over Ukraine, he predicts they will take Kiev within 2 weeks, “demilitarize” the country, and install a puppet government.

His prediction for when all this is over is that Russia exerts their power, does what they want in Ukraine, and eventually the west just kind of forgets about it and drops sanctions. Putin continues on as President and everyone just kind of moves on.

He buys the Russian propaganda hook line and sinker so it’s really interesting getting his perspective. I don’t try to change his mind, I just show him articles or resources that show the western perspective of things he talks about and let him make his own decisions about what he believes. Anyway, he thinks Putin will survive all this and the world will just let Ukraine go.

It’s true that the Azov Battalion is a far right faction that has been integrated into the mainstream Ukrainian defense structure out of necessity and have gained a small amount of political clout as a result, but it formed as a response to Russian aggression so Putin using it as a justification for aggression is disingenuous. The party associated with them only received something like 2% of the vote, so it's not like they are extremely influential.

The same types of groups emerged during the Balkan wars in the 1990s, however Ukraine is in a much better position to keep them in check because they have been an independent country for 30 years and are not building their military from scratch.

[curves2000]

Not to derail the thread here but the truth of the matter is that when it comes to the globe, wherever you have a little cash and wealth and good health is the best place to live.

This notion that a lot of people in Canada and the USA have that we are the best isn't rooted in reality globally. I am a proud born and raised Canadian of Greek origin and I can tell you everday I am looking at more and more at exercising my Greek citizenship and potentially spending more time there.

Before this invasion and the sanctions, I am sure if you were well off, had a great job and a great group of friends and family, than living in Moscow could come with an excellent overall life for a lot of people, probably at the expense of some very important things, but still.

Far too many people have this notion that life in North America is amazing even if your poor and that's not true at all. I hear this nonsense from my friends and family in Greece thinking that Canadian life is LA Dolce Vita and no issues or concerns here.