Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by blankall

Apparently even places like London are off the table.

London is hardly the boonies - the 401 from Toronto to Windsor is one of the most densely populated regions of North America.

Originally Posted by blankall

Where exactly are all the young families and immigrant families supposed to move.

The 98 per cent of the country that isn’t SW Ontario or the Lower Mainland of B.C.

[Locke]

Hah....my neighbour is listing his house for $200K more than we paid for ours 8 years ago.

Its been a while since I could say...'that seems reasonable.'

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Locke

Hah....my neighbour is listing his house for $200K more than we paid for ours 8 years ago.

Its been a while since I could say...'that seems reasonable.'

Neighboring houses around us are selling for 200k more than we paid 18 months ago

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Neighboring houses around us are selling for 200k more than we paid 18 months ago

This just happened to my receptionist at her house in Airdrie.

Let that percolate a bit.

AIRDRIE!!

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

London is hardly the boonies - the 401 from Toronto to Windsor is one of the most densely populated regions of North America.



The 98 per cent of the country that isn’t SW Ontario or the Lower Mainland of B.C.

Where are all these affordable places that also have jobs? Even places like Calgary and Kelowna are struggling with affordability right now. I guess the only option is buy a bungalow in Winnipeg? Even if that happened that would only be a temporary relief, as once people started moving there prices would skyrocket.

Canada literally has about 10 million people looking to buy houses who can't. The current plan is to have record population growth, but also not rezone farm land or rezone for greater density. Something has to give.

[Fuzz]

Where does that 10 million come from? According to this older stat,

More than 9.5 million of the 14.1 million households in Canada owned their home in 2016, representing a homeownership rate of 67.8%.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...429-1&indgeo=0


So that leaves 4.6 million rental households, but it would be inaccurate to say every one of them is looking to buy. Considering ~25% of seniors rent, I'd imagine a lot of them aren't looking to buy at this point in their life. So I'd suspect a more realistic number is closer to 2 million than 10.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by blankall

Where are all these affordable places that also have jobs?

Edmonton

At least we know if people are willing to start out there, that they really wanted to get the hell away from where they were.

[Harry Lime]

With over 400K immigration last year, wouldn't it just be common sense to link immigration to the jobless rate? At least connect it to some kind of metric so the infrastructure has some chance of keeping up.

I sound like a broken record.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

With over 400K immigration last year, wouldn't it just be common sense to link immigration to the jobless rate? At least connect it to some kind of metric so the infrastructure has some chance of keeping up.

I sound like a broken record.

Immigration should be set at whatever your target population growth is minus birth rate. Using short term economics to address long term demographic problems isn’t smart.

[peter12]

We have to build more, rezone more land for higher density housing, make investments in our cities so that they aren’t so dependent on car infrastructure. Everything a NIMBY from the suburbs hates but ah well, they have had their fun.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by GGG

Immigration should be set at whatever your target population growth is minus birth rate. Using short term economics to address long term demographic problems isn’t smart.

Assuming targets remain static over a thirty year span isn't smart. Basing initial targets on overly enthusiastic projections is not smart.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Assuming targets remain static over a thirty year span isn't smart. Basing initial targets on overly enthusiastic projections is not smart.

I’m not sure I follow your concern, We have a long term structural probables that needs to be addressed via birth rate or immigration. Why would projections be overly enthusiastic? You continue to bring in young people or we get overwhelmed with old people. We know how many young people we need to support the aging population.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by peter12

We have to build more, rezone more land for higher density housing, make investments in our cities so that they aren’t so dependent on car infrastructure. Everything a NIMBY from the suburbs hates but ah well, they have had their fun.

The problem is Nimby's in the more urban areas not the suburbs. The largest fights against rezoning are existing owners in urban areas.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by GGG

The problem is Nimby's in the more urban areas not the suburbs. The largest fights against resining are but existing owners in urban areas.

Yes low density housing near the most productive parts of a city is the biggest problem. About 60% of Vancouver’s land is zoned for such houses and it’s ridiculous.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by calculoso

The problem is that too many are using real estate as an investment and not actually living there or renting it out. They sit there unoccupied. Any new housing gets snapped up right away, and only a fraction will actually have people live in them.

Evidence?

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by peter12

We have to build more, rezone more land for higher density housing, make investments in our cities so that they aren’t so dependent on car infrastructure. Everything a NIMBY from the suburbs hates but ah well, they have had their fun.

I think this also requires a shift in the rent vs. own mentality too, and I am not referring to renting vs. owning homes, but more that you don't own a boat, or at least don't keep it parked in your driveway. For higher density, we need think more about not using homes as just storage facilities for our hobbies. I think they've done a good job of this in Japan / China / NYC / etc. Understanding that you can have a good life without having all of your creature comforts close by.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by calculoso

The problem is that too many are using real estate as an investment and not actually living there or renting it out. They sit there unoccupied. Any new housing gets snapped up right away, and only a fraction will actually have people live in them.

I’ve never heard that before, and I’ve never seen empty houses sitting around. Where does this idea come from?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I’ve never heard that before, and I’ve never seen empty houses sitting around. Where does this idea come from?

It’s a way to blame immigrants and foreigners for housing problems so you don’t need to find a solution to the supply problem.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Evidence?

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I’ve never heard that before, and I’ve never seen empty houses sitting around. Where does this idea come from?

I don't know if it is prevalent or an issue in Calgary but empty investment housing is definitely a thing in Vancouver. It is a situation that the government had to address with a special tax that charged owners with empty properties.

[indes]

It's insane up here too, we locked in to have our house built in July 2020. To build the exact same house on the same size lot in the next phase is +170,000$