Russia invades Ukraine

[CliffFletcher]

It’s worth keeping in mind that none of these situation maps that show Russian advances and territory indicate the disposition of the Ukraine army. Hard to assess the situation when only one side’s units are shown.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s worth keeping in mind that none of these situation maps that show Russian advances and territory indicate the disposition of the Ukraine army. Hard to assess the situation when only one side’s units are shown.

yeah that's what buddy said in his video.

That being said, the lack of advance of the Russians is telling.

Ivan is struggling to make significant advances.

[Table 5]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1504098983895080965

Progress?

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed in full for the first time on Monday, would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

Or just a breather for Russia to regroup?

Although Moscow and Kyiv both said on Wednesday that they had made progress on the terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials remain sceptical Russian President Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

That is the sad brutal truth. Canadians will wear pins, turn on blue and yellow lights, play the UA anthem before our hockey games, and buy more pierogis. But as for actually physically helping actual Ukrainians on the ground? Not a JT hater, but I LOL every time Trudeau speaks about stepping up to help in this crises.

For me the big test to see how Canada offers aid will be the new Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel. I am keeping an eye on this, as my wife's cousin is a refugee living with us and if she cannot find a way to support herself here in Poland over the next 6 weeks before we move back, we want to look into this program to bring her to Canada as we don't want to abandon her here.

However I am not holding my breath that it will be anything substantial other than the very lucky few/privileged who are able to get approved. I've read stories on various immigration forums recently about Ukrainians attempting to do visa applications and IRCC still has not cut the red tape. Asking them to send photocopies of documents, print such and such documents, get certified translations, etc. Who the #### is able to do those kind of things while cities are getting shelled? The only way that IRCC has stepped up is prioritizing UA sponsorship applications that are already in the queue. But that really only works for Ukrainians living OUTSIDE Ukraine, as the final step is a passport submission request. Nobody inside Ukraine is going to be able to courier their passport to the visa center and back.

Canada loves to say we are an open, welcoming country to all who want to come. That couldn't be further from the truth. The red tape to enter Canada, even on a TRV , is extremely difficult for Ukrainians. I know this from personal experience and based on the reasoning given to me by IRCC in the refusal letters I requested. It's hilarious how we all love to trot out the stat that Canada has the 3rd largest Ukrainian population in the world, but we sure make it impossible for them to even come visit . Even the Polish PM was saying that his country cut the red tape for Ukrainians to enter Poland and that he wants Canada to do the same to help relieve some of the pressure.

So ultimately I will judge how well Canada helps refugees by how this Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel program works out. It should be online this week. I will be impressed if Canada actually steps up and somewhat cuts the red tape and opens the door for refugee to help alleviate some of the pressure the Eastern EU countries are dealing with.

And not just a Canadian thing or a JT thing.

As you say, people will color their lights, add a banner to their social media posts and pour out their vodka.

But how about enduring months of economic hardship? How many people are willing for a material reduction in their standard of living if it meant an earlier end to the fighting? IMO it's not a government thing.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Table 5

https://twitter.com/user/status/1504098983895080965

Progress?

Or just a breather for Russia to regroup?

How does that even work? They can protect Ukraine, but can't put their weapons in Ukraine, or bases? Does that not seriously risk an instantaneous escalation, should Russia say, shoot down an American plane protecting Ukraine? Then all of NATO is involved.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

MOD map updates for the day. Russia's Southern MD and Airborne Grouping has made some gains northwards across the Dnieper river west of Nikopol otherwise lines have been pretty static since the 13th. A large scale Ukrainian counter-offense is supposedly underway, we will see how much ground they regain in the coming days.

Well, this was always going to be the Ukrainian "winning strategy", theoretically.

Stop the advance while avoiding major engagements as much as possible to conserve your own strength, drain Russian forces as much as you can, hit supply lines and any units you can catch isolated, gather strength for counter-offensive, then punch back hard with the hope that it will put "poorly supplied and poorly motivated" Russian troops on the run.

Assuming there really is a significant counter-offensive about to happen and not just something smaller, we should soon know a lot more about what the overall situation really is.

EDIT: obviously a war of attrition is the other option, but obviously it's less preferable.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Table 5

https://twitter.com/user/status/1504098983895080965

Progress?


Or just a breather for Russia to regroup?

Anything that stops the violence is welcome news!


But Russia coming to the negotiating table makes me think they can't sustain the invasion and are looking for a way out.



Millions of lives are at stake, but maybe now is the time for Ukraine to say #### you Putin - the terms are you leave and we forge our own destiny.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

Well, this was always going to be the Ukrainian "winning strategy", theoretically.

Stop the advance while avoiding major engagements as much as possible to conserve your own strength, drain Russian forces as much as you can, hit supply lines and any units you can catch isolated, gather strength for counter-offensive, then punch back hard with the hope that it will put "poorly supplied and poorly motivated" Russian troops on the run.

Assuming there really is a significant counter-offensive about to happen and not just something smaller, we should soon know a lot more about what the overall situation really is.

EDIT: obviously a war of attrition is the other option, but obviously it's less preferable.

I still don't think that the Ukrainian's can really afford a war of attrition, they lose that one. The first strategy looks like the most likely, however with the Russian's hitting logistical centers could slow down or stop the flow of weapons and soldiers to the various fronts. The longer this goes on the less likely that the Ukrainian Military would be able to muster enough troops for a significant counter punch, which is badly needed.



On the Russian side it does sound like moral is becoming a huge issues. Hence the importation of about 20,000 fighters from the Middle East.

[Red Slinger]

Regardless, it's good progress. The biggest risk was that Putin was going to continue to push forward no matter what. If Russia really is having second thoughts, and it's not just a stall tactic, this is a very positive development.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Anything that stops the violence is welcome news!


But Russia coming to the negotiating table makes me think they can't sustain the invasion and are looking for a way out.



Millions of lives are at stake, but maybe now is the time for Ukraine to say #### you Putin - the terms are you leave and we forge our own destiny.

That stance means the fighting carries on and Putin tries to up the human cost and destruction of Ukraine's cities and economic centers. At this point, with crushing sanctions that will take the Russian's years to recover from, and pretty much the exposure and destruction of large numbers of soldiers and equipment, and Putin possibly staring into the political grave, his mind set is going to be that he is going to get some concessions no matter what. And the Ukrainian's forging their own destiny in terms of NATO and EU and being rearmed after this by Western Powers is going to be unacceptable to him.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

That stance means the fighting carries on and Putin tries to up the human cost and destruction of Ukraine's cities and economic centers. At this point, with crushing sanctions that will take the Russian's years to recover from, and pretty much the exposure and destruction of large numbers of soldiers and equipment, and Putin possibly staring into the political grave, his mind set is going to be that he is going to get some concessions no matter what. And the Ukrainian's forging their own destiny in terms of NATO and EU and being rearmed after this by Western Powers is going to be unacceptable to him.

All Ukraine has to do to stop the Russian invasion is give up sovereignty.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Anything that stops the violence is welcome news!


But Russia coming to the negotiating table makes me think they can't sustain the invasion and are looking for a way out.



Millions of lives are at stake, but maybe now is the time for Ukraine to say #### you Putin - the terms are you leave and we forge our own destiny.

Unfortunately I'm more inclined to believe that this is just Posturing.

Buying them time to re-organize.

[Cheese]

so, Russia gets to come in and totally destroy Ukraine to the 100s of billions of dollars just for Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases? Did I get that straight?
Where is the Russia repays Ukraine those billions of dollars of rebuilding the infrastructure they destroyed?
Not to mention the thousands that have been murdered!

[burn_this_city]

Any deal where Russia saves face is bad for security long term. They will wait a few years regroup and try again, too many delusional Russkiy Mir types exist in that government.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Cheese

so, Russia gets to come in and totally destroy Ukraine to the 100s of billions of dollars just for Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases? Did I get that straight?
Where is the Russia repays Ukraine those billions of dollars of rebuilding the infrastructure they destroyed?
Not to mention the thousands that have been murdered!

Yeah, war sure is unfair.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Cheese

so, Russia gets to come in and totally destroy Ukraine to the 100s of billions of dollars just for Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases? Did I get that straight?
Where is the Russia repays Ukraine those billions of dollars of rebuilding the infrastructure they destroyed?
Not to mention the thousands that have been murdered!

You're point is fair enough.



However I think the question has to be how soon do the Ukrainian's want this to end.



They can take a hard line in the negotiations. F you Russia, leave now pay reparations, no conditions on NATO entry or EU entry.



At that point the Russian's would probably just up the pressure and go from in theory conquest mode to obliteration mode.



Its going to take forever for either country to economically recover from this. Likely though Ukraine has a "Easier" path to recovery. But at the same time, Russia targeting civilian centers, manufacturing, ports and trying to kill as many young men as they can would make that task harder.


At this point Russia is economically farked, and their armed forces is in shambles. The last thing that they're going to want is a resurgent Ukraine on their border getting re-armed by the West.


So Ukraine can roll the dice, continue to fight and continue to try to push through the destruction of their country knowing that outside of weapons and humanitarian aid that no help is coming and that the longer this goes on the worse it gets.


Or give up some concessions. Armed Forces limitation, no NATO or EU and see if the Russian's come back with something that they can live with beyond withdrawl of Russian troops.


I mean we keep focusing on reparations, that will come no matter what as a condition of removing sanctions.

[burn_this_city]

Any deal with Russia isn't worth anything. They already abandoned the deal with Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons for guarantees of territorial integrity. Nation of snakes. The only reason they're pushing for any kind of negotiation is because they're losing and their army will eventually collapse.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cheese

so, Russia gets to come in and totally destroy Ukraine to the 100s of billions of dollars just for Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases? Did I get that straight?
Where is the Russia repays Ukraine those billions of dollars of rebuilding the infrastructure they destroyed?
Not to mention the thousands that have been murdered!

I sure hope the war ends and Ukraine can maintain its sovereignty, but that sure is a bitter pill to swallow since it would really show how pointless everything was. This deal sounds like the kind of thing that could have been negotiated before an invasion took place.

If this deal happens, I hope it also fast tracks Ukraine to the EU at least as well as reparations from Russia. Not that reparations mean anything when it comes to human lives that were lost, but at least it would help those still alive.

[sureLoss]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1504144215453929485

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Locke

Unfortunately I'm more inclined to believe that this is just Posturing.

Buying them time to re-organize.

I don't understand what the negotiations have to do with buying them time. Nothing has changed because these neogotiations are happening. They are still fighting, the US and allies are still giving Ukraine weapons. How is it buying Russia time? If there was a ceasefire then I could see this being used to buy time, but I don't see the logic now.