I would suggest a deal where Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea all get internationally-supervised referendums to determine their future.
In theory, this works but I wonder how many ethnic Ukrainians left that area and wouldn't be able to vote.
These referendums after wars are sometimes used as a tool to reward ethnic cleansing by disguising it as democracy after the fact.
The region also hasn't had a census in a long time and has open borders with Russia. They could easily load the demographics to get the result that they want.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 03-08-2022 at 07:01 PM.
In theory, this works but I wonder how many ethnic Ukrainians left that area and wouldn't be able to vote.
These referendums after wars are sometimes used as a tool to reward ethnic cleansing by disguising it as democracy after the fact.
The region also hasn't had a census in a long time and has open borders with Russia. They could easily load the demographics to get the result that they want.
I think you'd want eligibility to be restricted to people who were there before the invasion (including those displaced), and independence or join Russia would still win all three. But the West gets to tell Ukraine it's just respecting peoples' rights to self-determination. Ukraine gets to say it liberated Crimea and gave them self-determination. Russia gets to claim the same with regards to Donetsk and Luhansk. It's not about retaining territory for Ukraine, it's about ending the war and giving all parties a way to save face. There's certainly a degree of realpolitik in holding referendums where the outcomes are predictable, but that's part of why you might be able to convince Russia to go for it.
Or if your energy grid is based on burning gas to make steam that turns turbines, maybe throw a little bit of antifreeze in that water, before your grid collapses
That would be ideal, but a peace deal could eventually be negotiated without Ukraine being the only party negotiating with Russia. In fact, they could end up being a third party between NATO and Russia deciding what it best. That is the curse of being a relatively small power caught between two superpowers.
If NATO decides that excluding Ukraine from the alliance is a bargaining chip to avoid an escalation, then Ukraine's will as an independent country to join the alliance isn't their chip to throw.
I'm with you though, I definitely hope that Russia leaves with nothing. In reality, I think they have invested too much into this to leave empty handed and they will escalate things horrifically to other countries if they don't get some kind of gains. If that happens, NATO will try to pressure some kind of settlement.
So what you are saying is the USA/nato and Russia make a deal and they do not include Ukraine in the discussions?
The country being attacked will only be a third party in the talks?
So what you are saying is the USA/nato and Russia make a deal and they do not include Ukraine in the discussions?
The country being attacked will only be a third party in the talks?
Seriously? You believe what you just posted?
Yeah, I do believe it. In fact, NATO was negotiating with Russia directly before the invasion without Ukraine directly present, so there is nothing to stop them from continuing to do that.
If it makes sense for them to work out a deal with Russia directly to get them to stop, they would do it. Remember that a lot of the demands Russia had before the invasion had nothing even to do with Ukraine and were to do with NATO policy.
It's not uncommon in conflict resolutions and drafting peace accords for other nations to negotiate them. Of course it would have to be presented and accepted by Ukraine.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 03-08-2022 at 11:48 PM.
Yeah, this is where I see it going as well. Brief and limited tactical nuclear exchange, then everyone pushes away from the table into some uneasy peace.
EMP attacks behave similarly to electric grid cyberattacks:
That's what worries about limited tactical nuclear exchange. It's whether I should or should not send my family away to some distant town in Siberia. The danger is that USA may chose that town, rather than Moscow, for a nuclear strike. Like they didn't strike Tokyo nor Kyoto on WWII. Instead they went after lesser towns of Heroshima and Nagasaki. On the other hand, if they want to take Putin out, they would bomb Moscow. Very dangerous situation. Chukotka is probably the safest place in Russia now as it is next to Alaska.
Here would be my my peace proposal if I were mediating between Ukraine and Russia:
1. Russia gains no territory as spoils of war.
2. Ukraine adopts official neutrality and NATO membership is taken off the table. Possible EU membership is not taken off the table.
3. Ukraine recognizes the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics as independent. Both republics need to adopt neutrality and not be annexed by Russia. Both need to be de-militarized. Ukrainians in both republics may keep their Ukrainian citizenship and are free to move between Ukraine and those areas.
4. A de-militarized zone along the Ukrainian-Belarussian and Ukraine-Russian borders is created. NATO and Russia scale down the militarization in the Baltic region.
5. Ukraine drops all claims to Crimea and agrees allow it access to freshwater. Russia is granted a secure land bridge corridor to Crimea in Ukraine. To remain part of Ukraine, but managed as a free-zone so that Crimea can be properly developed.
6. Ukraine gets XX% of the natural resource revenue from the economic zone around Crimea in exchange for freshwater and dropping their claims to the area.
7. Russia pays reparations in exchange for dropping sanctions.
Would that be fair for both sides?
4 and 7 are the starting point. The rest are non starters.
__________________ It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
Zelenskyy party proposes new security agreement for Ukraine
The Ukrainian Parliament majority Sluha Narodu Party has proposed to sign a new security guarantee agreement for Ukraine with the US, Turkey, and Russia instead of NATO membership, Ukrayinska Pravda news website has reported.
“The alliance is not ready to admit Ukraine over the course of at least the next 15 years and has made this clear,” the Sluha Narodu (Servant of the People) party announced. Therefore, it said, it was time to discuss concrete security guarantees with Russia.
By signing the agreement, Sluha Narodu suggested “Russia will be under a legal obligation to recognise Ukrainian statehood and refrain from threatening the Ukrainian people and its government,” Ukrayinska Pravda reported.
So the positive is that alliances part is being sorted out. Russia made it clear that they are fine with Ukraine in EU. NATO made it clear that they are not accepting Ukraine. Some USA-Ukraine security agreement is being worked out.
Now it's time to figure out the land part and money part. My suggestion:
1. Russia gives Donbass back.
2. Ukraine officially sells Crimea to Russia for whatever is determined a "fair price". I have no clue what is a going price for peninsulas these days, but there should be a consensus that it is fair. Once done, Crimea is recognized as Russian
3. Russia pays huge amount of money to Ukraine in return for dropping sanctions.
Wanted to give a final update on my wife's situation:
Spoiler!
Yesterday her and her 2 companions made their way to the UA/PL border crossing at Korczowa - Krakovets. They were dropped off on the road leading to the border and it was an expected 22ish hour wait by foot. Luckily, they came across another couple driving an SUV that was headed to Poland and this couple offered all 3 of them a ride, therefore allowing them to ride into the passenger vehicle queue line, which was only about 7 hours long.
I would like to say that CP member LEGOMAN stepped up HUGE to pick me up in Krakow, drive to the border and get sent in multiple directions, wait at a meeting point, and REUNITE my wife and I together after almost 3 weeks of pure stress and hell. This is by far the biggest and most important favor I have ever asked of anybody and I cannot thank him enough for doing what he did, for his wife and kids letting a complete internet stranger take time away from them, to do this.
It was a pretty emotional ride home as my wife was telling us some stories of her time around Kharkov. How her parents and family were still there with no power, internet, heat and small food supplies. How her friend who was with us, her 23 year old classmate (mother of 2) was shot by a 'brave' Russian soldier and died. How soldiers were shooting at people trying to fix the power lines to get light in their houses. How her step dad drove over bodies to drive the girls to Kharkov train station to get them to safety. I was honestly at a loss for words as she spoke about these events.
There's a long road to recovery and healing for these 3 as they will be staying with us before my wife and I move to Canada in 8 weeks. My landlords are being extremely helpful by finding us the social assistance programs and donations points in our city and offering to drive them anywhere they need. It will be tough, but they are safe and sound.
I am forever grateful to those who offered support on CP, made small talk by PMs, put me as a 'surprise' guest in one of the Flames' pregame Puppetman videos, and especially Legoman for driving us. I will never for that. Also hoping to an end sooner than later for this bitter, needless war.
The Following 222 Users Say Thank You to Huntingwhale For This Useful Post:
Wanted to give a final update on my wife's situation:
Spoiler!
Yesterday her and her 2 companions made their way to the UA/PL border crossing at Korczowa - Krakovets. They were dropped off on the road leading to the border and it was an expected 22ish hour wait by foot. Luckily, they came across another couple driving an SUV that was headed to Poland and this couple offered all 3 of them a ride, therefore allowing them to ride into the passenger vehicle queue line, which was only about 7 hours long.
I would like to say that CP member LEGOMAN stepped up HUGE to pick me up in Krakow, drive to the border and get sent in multiple directions, wait at a meeting point, and REUNITE my wife and I together after almost 3 weeks of pure stress and hell. This is by far the biggest and most important favor I have ever asked of anybody and I cannot thank him enough for doing what he did, for his wife and kids letting a complete internet stranger take time away from them, to do this.
It was a pretty emotional ride home as my wife was telling us some stories of her time around Kharkov. How her parents and family were still there with no power, internet, heat and small food supplies. How her friend who was with us, her 23 year old classmate (mother of 2) was shot by a 'brave' Russian soldier and died. How soldiers were shooting at people trying to fix the power lines to get light in their houses. How her step dad drove over bodies to drive the girls to Kharkov train station to get them to safety. I was honestly at a loss for words as she spoke about these events.
There's a long road to recovery and healing for these 3 as they will be staying with us before my wife and I move to Canada in 8 weeks. My landlords are being extremely helpful by finding us the social assistance programs and donations points in our city and offering to drive them anywhere they need. It will be tough, but they are safe and sound.
I am forever grateful to those who offered support on CP, made small talk by PMs, put me as a 'surprise' guest in one of the Flames' pregame Puppetman videos, and especially Legoman for driving us. I will never for that. Also hoping to an end sooner than later for this bitter, needless war.
Can I use your post to send to some friends and family? Truly one of the worst posts I have ever read on CP, and also the best I have ever read.
Feel free to pm the answer. I am not media. Yet if media caught on it would be a good thing. Let me know.
Yeah, I do believe it. In fact, NATO was negotiating with Russia directly before the invasion without Ukraine directly present, so there is nothing to stop them from continuing to do that.
If it makes sense for them to work out a deal with Russia directly to get them to stop, they would do it. Remember that a lot of the demands Russia had before the invasion had nothing even to do with Ukraine and were to do with NATO policy.
It's not uncommon in conflict resolutions and drafting peace accords for other nations to negotiate them. Of course it would have to be presented and accepted by Ukraine.
So glad to hear the three of them made it out of Ukraine and to safety, HW. So many of us were incredibly worried and hanging on your every update. Of course your wife's family is still not out of harm's way and continues to face unspeakable hardship in their village. They are still in my thoughts and I hope you can share updates about them if you have any.
__________________
Shot down in Flames!
The Following User Says Thank You to icarus For This Useful Post:
Wanted to give a final update on my wife's situation:
Spoiler!
Yesterday her and her 2 companions made their way to the UA/PL border crossing at Korczowa - Krakovets. They were dropped off on the road leading to the border and it was an expected 22ish hour wait by foot. Luckily, they came across another couple driving an SUV that was headed to Poland and this couple offered all 3 of them a ride, therefore allowing them to ride into the passenger vehicle queue line, which was only about 7 hours long.
I would like to say that CP member LEGOMAN stepped up HUGE to pick me up in Krakow, drive to the border and get sent in multiple directions, wait at a meeting point, and REUNITE my wife and I together after almost 3 weeks of pure stress and hell. This is by far the biggest and most important favor I have ever asked of anybody and I cannot thank him enough for doing what he did, for his wife and kids letting a complete internet stranger take time away from them, to do this.
It was a pretty emotional ride home as my wife was telling us some stories of her time around Kharkov. How her parents and family were still there with no power, internet, heat and small food supplies. How her friend who was with us, her 23 year old classmate (mother of 2) was shot by a 'brave' Russian soldier and died. How soldiers were shooting at people trying to fix the power lines to get light in their houses. How her step dad drove over bodies to drive the girls to Kharkov train station to get them to safety. I was honestly at a loss for words as she spoke about these events.
There's a long road to recovery and healing for these 3 as they will be staying with us before my wife and I move to Canada in 8 weeks. My landlords are being extremely helpful by finding us the social assistance programs and donations points in our city and offering to drive them anywhere they need. It will be tough, but they are safe and sound.
I am forever grateful to those who offered support on CP, made small talk by PMs, put me as a 'surprise' guest in one of the Flames' pregame Puppetman videos, and especially Legoman for driving us. I will never for that. Also hoping to an end sooner than later for this bitter, needless war.
Great news. And good stepping up LEGOMAN
The Following 41 Users Say Thank You to PeteMoss For This Useful Post:
