Russia invades Ukraine

[Sliver]

Sorry, I shouldn't be joking around in here.

Those are good tips, UCB. Thanks for answering the question.

[Table 5]

Not sure how reliable the Jerusalem Post tends to be, but considering the Israeli PM met with Putin a few days ago, perhaps some interesting insight to the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700677

Three days after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the details are beginning to emerge. According to people who were privy to details about the meeting, the current situation is that Russia has offered a "final" version of its offer to end the crisis, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to accept or decline.

The proposal was deemed "difficult" but not "impossible," the sources said. It is worse than what Zelensky would have gotten before the invasion but "the gaps between the sides are not great."

Zelensky can fortify Ukraine's independence but will have to pay a heavy price, the sources said. Assumptions are that he will be forced to give up the contested Donbas region, officially recognize the pro-Russian dissidents in Ukraine, pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, shrink his army and declare neutrality. If he declines the proposal, the outcome may be terrible: thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die and there is a high probability that his country will completely lose its independence.

If Ukraine's president rejects the proposal, French President Emmanuel Macron's assumption that "the worst is before us" is prone to happen. In that scenario, Putin will order his army to put the pedal to the metal and change the face of Ukraine.

Zelensky is torn, the sources said. On the one hand, he is enjoying immense popularity and has become the perfect Che Guevara. On the other hand, he knows full well what the Argentinian revolutionary and guerrilla leader's end was.

[Wormius]

This was probably addressed earlier, but what does Russia fear from NATO if they’re not like invading NATO countries?

[burn_this_city]

Zelenskyy shouldn't negotiate with terrorists.

[White Out 403]

anyone else expecting to see sliver on a scooter with putins head on CNN in a week?

[Ozy_Flame]

Pretty sure joining NATO is off the table at this point. That seems like a relatively low-hanging fruit decision. This war has shown that if a country provides the manpower, NATO countries will provide the materials and weapons to fight a war. There seems to be some level of NATO-like relationship without the direct engagement. I would think Ukraine will have a special relationship with the US and Europe after this war ends.

I saw that Zelensky also proposed a Ukraine/US/Turkey/Russia security agreement this morning. I think this would imply that the NATO membership is quite visibly out of the cards.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Now for the facepalm moment…



A trifecta of dictatorships, bravo Biden.

You need something fast. You can't just magically make Canada and US increase oil production/buildout logistics, etc to cover the immediate downfall. Those countries have the infrastructure ready to go to cover the gaps in the short term.

[afc wimbledon]

If I was Zelensky I could agree to all of it but the shrink the military, that just sets the table for the whole thing to reoccur in 5 years time

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Pretty sure joining NATO is off the table at this point. That seems like a relatively low-hanging fruit decision. This war has shown that if a country provides the manpower, NATO countries will provide the materials and weapons to fight a war. There seems to be some level of NATO-like relationship without the direct engagement. I would think Ukraine will have a special relationship with the US and Europe after this war ends.

I saw that Zelensky also proposed a Ukraine/US/Turkey/Russia security agreement this morning. I think this would imply that the NATO membership is quite visibly out of the cards.

I wonder if that is considered viable in Ukraine?

It was less than 30 years ago they agreed to this with Russia, US and UK:

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

— Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons[10]

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If I was Zelensky I could agree to all of it but the shrink the military, that just sets the table for the whole thing to reoccur in 5 years time

Eh, you just ignore that part. Russia lies about evrything, I'm sure they could get away with it.


Navy? No, no navy. Championship swimming team support vessels.

[burn_this_city]

Russia is a country of liars and snakes, they will try to assassinate Zelenskyy at the first opportunity. They have never respected earlier agreements, so any agreement now isn't worth the paper its printed on.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Russia is a country of liars and snakes, they will try to assassinate Zelenskyy at the first opportunity. They have never respected earlier agreements, so any agreement now isn't worth the paper its printed on.

As long as you know that going in, you agree, so the bombs stop hitting people's homes.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Now for the facepalm moment…

A trifecta of dictatorships, bravo Biden.

I know everyone is in a moralistic mood these days and not thinking about the economy, but prolonged oil prices over $120 will cause recessions, political turmoil, and food riots.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Wormius

This was probably addressed earlier, but what does Russia fear from NATO if they’re not like invading NATO countries?

Loss of leverage and influence over a direct neighbor. Same reason the US wouldn't tolerate China or Russia aligning with Mexico and potentially putting troops there. I mean, the entire Cold War was about battling over spheres of influence and proxy wars, and this is similar. The US didn't want nuclear missiles in Cuba not because they necessarily thought the USSR was going to use them, but because the implied threat reduced the US's leverage in any confrontation. The US could take a harder stand against Russia if they knew that threat didn't exist in such close proximity. And similarly, Russia probably feels like it can push back against NATO more easily if they don't share a massive and extremely hard to defend land border with a NATO nation.

Now that doesn't necessarily explain the current confrontation. I think it's pretty clear that this war wasn't started solely from a somewhat legitimate (though likely paranoid) fear of NATO or territorial insecurity. It probably has as much or more to do with wanting to project Russian power and for lack of a better term "Make Russia Great Again", though so far at least it's doing the opposite.

[PeteMoss]

I dislike the push of people to dictate what the Ukrainians should take or not take. Its their country and their choice.

If Russia came barrelling into Canada and claimed Alberta or Quebec as their territory - how quick would you be to accept just giving it up? I have no idea but it's not a simple call.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I dislike the push of people to dictate what the Ukrainians should take or not take. Its their country and their choice.

If Russia came barrelling into Canada and claimed Alberta or Quebec as their territory - how quick would you be to accept just giving it up? I have no idea but it's not a simple call.

Is anyone pushing? Around here it is just discussions. Have any countries come out and said "you should accept this deal", other than Russia?

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I dislike the push of people to dictate what the Ukrainians should take or not take. Its their country and their choice.

If Russia came barrelling into Canada and claimed Alberta or Quebec as their territory - how quick would you be to accept just giving it up? I have no idea but it's not a simple call.

Meh, we can spitball here. Pretty sure nobody is printing off these posts and presenting them anywhere.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Wormius

This was probably addressed earlier, but what does Russia fear from NATO if they’re not like invading NATO countries?

Being bombed out like Yugoslavia.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I dislike the push of people to dictate what the Ukrainians should take or not take. Its their country and their choice.

If Russia came barrelling into Canada and claimed Alberta or Quebec as their territory - how quick would you be to accept just giving it up? I have no idea but it's not a simple call.

At the same time, they're being backed by Western powers. So it would be naive to think that the US and NATO aren't heavily influencing how Ukraine responds.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Is anyone pushing? Around here it is just discussions. Have any countries come out and said "you should accept this deal", other than Russia?

I'm talking about the discussions here and giving my opinion on people saying Ukraine should accept this or not accept that. They are the ones getting bombed and the ones who'd be giving up territory so whatever they want to accept is fine by me.