Russia invades Ukraine

[CliffFletcher]

We’re getting all sorts of morale-boosting videos of Russian forces being destroyed. But the Ukrainians have to be taking a beating too. We don’t know how much men and equipment they’ve lost, especially in the east and south where the Russians have made progress. The Russians have badly bungled the opening moves, but without any idea of the losses sustained by the Ukrainians, it’s impossible to get an accurate picture of the balance of forces.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by wwkayaker

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500957531073568770

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500965064563638278

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500965212320641025

“Saruman believes that it is only great power that can hold evil in check, but that is not what I have found. I’ve found it is the small things, everyday deeds of ordinary folk, that keeps the darkness at bay. Simple acts of kindness, and love.”

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by bob-loblaw

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500557346321412096

Copying the Iranians with the Brits.

[krynski]

Well, here is an interesting little jingle, including video footage, of Bayraktar strikes (In Ukraine, though I would not be able to verify all of the footage).

NSFW b/c youtube says it could be offensive, 1 bad word captioned, and most certainly destruction/violence.

NSFW!

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500904831485034501

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by troutman

I know what you mean, but winning seems like the wrong word for it. No one wins. I just hope for a quick end to this.

While there is something left.

Some of these cities are rubble, or soon to be. I can't believe some of the destruction I'm seeing on CBC.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

While there is something left.

Some of these cities are rubble, or soon to be. I can't believe some of the destruction I'm seeing on CBC.

It's sadly pretty easy to believe it you look back at Grozny. Or Aleppo currently.

[burn_this_city]

Not sure how reliable this is.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500970343204274182

[djsFlames]

Beyond happy for HW and kn.

[Pointman]

I am terrified at how horrible war is and that it's my country that is doing it. I don't understand why there's such a thing as "war crime", as it seems to imply that the war itself somehow is not a crime. Like a war is ok as long, as you play it by some rules. It should not be like this. War itself should be a crime. Killing military should be as much of a crime, as killing civilians, because soldiers are humans too.

Mostly I want this to end soon and never happen again. Because of this, I want Russia to fail hard. Much like USA stopped being so aggressive after a major failure in Iraq. I want this war to prove that invasions don't work and one should never try to do it again.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Firebot

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500213943012319252

A must read, long thread.


TLDR logistics wins...and loses wars. Putin chose the latter.

They are effectively out of everything, most of all trucks since they are all getting blown up.


Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500931433703030784

thought this would a good read for everyone, so I bumped it, just in case some missed it.

[CliffFletcher]

Sobering analysis by the former US national intelligence officer for Europe.

I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war. None are good

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine

… There are possible other paths toward further escalation, but they all eventually lead toward the nuclear threshold. Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes that his regime is threatened. It is hard to know exactly what turn of events would scare him enough to cross the nuclear threshold. Certainly a large Nato army entering Russian territory would be enough. But what if events in Ukraine loosened his grip on power at home? Indeed, achieving regime change in Russia indirectly by making Putin lose in Ukraine seems to be the logic behind some of those who are pushing for escalation today.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e-trajectories

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sobering analysis by the former US national intelligence officer for Europe.

Nearly week old analysis, not sure if its entirely relevant anymore.

[PeteMoss]

Screws keep getting turned on Russia.

US to ban Russian oil imports. EU trying to cut demand by 2/3 by the end of the year. UK to cut end oil imports by 2022 (not gas however)

[Itse]

A lot of supposed expert analysis hasn't really been that great at predicting this conflict.

Not the worst I've seen, but a lot of it hasn't been significantly more accurate than many of the informed layman analysis frankly.

There's just so many unknown variables. Are the Belarussians going to join in or are they not? Is China going to step in, and if so in what way? What's going to happen in Syria if Russian military resources are depleted? Is some separatist group within Russia going to try take advantage of the situation?

How are Russians going to react to the economic crisis? Is it true that there are already tens of thousands of foreign military volunteers in Ukraine, and how well are they equipped and organized? How is the military aid working for Ukraine? Coming in fast and plentiful or slow and disorganized?

How will the world react when the inevitable happens and Ukrainian far-right militias are caught doing war-crimes. Etc.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Screws keep getting turned on Russia.

US to ban Russian oil imports. EU trying to cut demand by 2/3 by the end of the year. UK to cut end oil imports by 2022 (not gas however)

Now for the facepalm moment…

Biden administration officials traveled to Venezuela over the weekend for talks on potentially allowing the country to sell its oil on the international market, helping to replace Russian fuel. Biden may travel to Saudi Arabia as the US works to convince the kingdom to increase its production. And a looming nuclear deal could bring significant volumes of Iranian oil back to the market.

A trifecta of dictatorships, bravo Biden.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Itse

Is it true that there are already tens of thousands of foreign military volunteers in Ukraine, and how well are they equipped and organized? How is the military aid working for Ukraine? Coming in fast and plentiful or slow and disorganized?

I am interested in this as well. I am sure they will group former NATO nationals/soldiers into one unit. It makes sense, it is a plug and play unit at that point which would have superior tactics, organization, motivation that the average Russian.

Not a bad Time article

https://time.com/6155670/foreign-fig...kraine-europe/

and Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...se-2022-03-07/


It is easy to understand why former soldiers are heading over.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Sadly, the buses are probably for prisoners and the dump trucks for clearing up rubble. This is material for post-invasion, just like one of the destroyer convoys that was full of riot helmets. They still expect to win.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501170083976126464

Nothing but the finest transportation for Putin's army.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Now for the facepalm moment…

A trifecta of dictatorships, bravo Biden.

That's not a facepalm. It's 2022. Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia are way less of a threat to the world order than Russia.

Also, on Iran, Trump abso-fataing-lutely fataed them on the Iran Nuclear Deal. I'd say the USA owes them an olive branch for that disgrace.

Is the US's domestic production still increasing? This could be a stop-gap on the way to independence, too. Plus it may be a good time to negotiate with those other countries while Russia is pre-occupied.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Sliver

That's not a facepalm. It's 2022. Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia are way less of a threat to the world order than Russia.

Also, on Iran, Trump abso-fataing-lutely fataed them on the Iran Nuclear Deal. I'd say the USA owes them an olive branch for that disgrace.

Is the US's domestic production still increasing? This could be a stop-gap on the way to independence, too. Plus it may be a good time to negotiate with those other countries while Russia is pre-occupied.

<a href='https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart'>Source</a>

I'm not sure they can get much above the previous peak. Shale-oil requires a lot of drilling, and they've depleted the best areas. Though at $100/barrel a lot of marginal drilling opens up. Still, those wells don't have much longevity.

Stable plentiful supplies where projects last decades, like Venezuela and our oil sands are a better place to invest.