[GT] 2021-22 Flames' Playoff Snake

[looooob]

Originally Posted by blankall

Edmonton is at 78%, Nashville at 59.7%, and Dallas at 54.1%....not sure how that works as one of those teams is likely missing. Anaheim is 2 points back and only has a 15.6% chance.

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

well to simplify things a little (its not entirely true- as teams above EDM- LA, vegas etc are still in the mix to drop out as are teams below anaheim to sneak in- vancouver, winnipeg) look at it as Edmonton, Nashville, Dallas and Anaheim are fighting for 2 spots (200%) , add those 4 up and you get 205% so pretty close (again its not perfect because EDM is still in the mix for pacific 2/3 etc but gives a general sense)

[heep223]

Stop this talk immediately and I recommend putting on your jockstraps

[looooob]

haha good point forgot what thread we were in


96 points is all that is and will ever matter

and snek

[Enoch Root]

For those of you having trouble digesting 0-4-26, that is the same as 13-17-0

In other words, the Flames need a record of 13-17-0 in order to achieve 96 points, or full-snakeness

(And as looooob said, the odds of those teams need to add to roughly 200%, as there are 2 spots available to them. The fact that they add to 207%, represents the fact that there is also a chance that one of the teams ahead of them craps the bed.)

But back to snakeness!

[Robbob]

So even if the Flames play like the Oilers they are in.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by blankall

Vegas odds of the Flames making the playoffs are 99.9%....Although I will admit that I don't find the odds that absolute. A losing/winning streak by any team in the division changes things quickly.

Edmonton is at 78%, Nashville at 59.7%, and Dallas at 54.1%....not sure how that works as one of those teams is likely missing. Anaheim is 2 points back and only has a 15.6% chance.

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Interesting to see that Moneypuck has the Flames up to the 4th most likely cup winner now ahead of Florida, Pittsburgh and Boston.

Tampa, Colorado and Toronto ahead of them.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting to see that Moneypuck has the Flames up to the 4th most likely cup winner now ahead of Florida, Pittsburgh and Boston.

Tampa, Colorado and Toronto ahead of them.

Toronto more likely than Carolina? That’s just crazy talk.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting to see that Moneypuck has the Flames up to the 4th most likely cup winner now ahead of Florida, Pittsburgh and Boston.

Tampa, Colorado and Toronto ahead of them.

Surprising that Toronto is in there, just because of the division.

One of Tampa, Florida and Toronto are guaranteed to be done in the first round. And when you throw Boston in, 2 will be eliminated. So to have 2 teams from the same division in the top 3 is crazy (even though both are worthy, based on their play, as is Florida)

By the same token, the Flames benefit from the fact that the Pacific just isn't as loaded.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Toronto more likely than Carolina? That’s just crazy talk.

IMO, they always inflate the Toronto numbers, to ensure the payout is smaller than in the event they do win. Toronto is by far the most popular NHL team, and will have lots of people betting on them, even if the payout odds aren't entirely fair. Oddmakers inflate the Toronto odds to take advantage of this.

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, was thinking the same thing - if Toronto weren't in the top 3, the money bet on them would be crazy - too much risk for the oddsmakers

[wireframe]

I emailed moneypuck in 2016 to ask for more details on how his playoff odds model works. At least at that time, it was a linear regression of the published variables, trained on decade of past games. Without getting into the technical reasons why, I can summarize by saying that's not a good way to predict playoff performance (source: myself, a data scientist). I have not been back to the site since.



edit: removed a typo

[Mathgod]

Tampa 17.7% chance of winning the cup but Carolina just 4.7%...?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by wireframe

I emailed moneypuck in 2016 to ask for more details on how his playoff odds model works. At least at that time, it was a linear regression of the published variables, trained on decade of past games. Without getting into the technical reasons why, I can summarize by saying that's not a good way to predict playoff performance (source: myself, a data scientist). I have not been back to the site since.

I am not a data scientist, nor do I play one on TV, but I agree that their model (as described on the site) looks hinky as hell. Their odds for teams to make the playoffs seem fairly reasonable, but I don't see much value in their predicted playoff results or their power rankings.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by blankall

Vegas odds of the Flames making the playoffs are 99.9%....Although I will admit that I don't find the odds that absolute. A losing/winning streak by any team in the division changes things quickly.

Edmonton is at 78%, Nashville at 59.7%, and Dallas at 54.1%....not sure how that works as one of those teams is likely missing. Anaheim is 2 points back and only has a 15.6% chance.

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

I don't ask for a lot, but what I wouldn't mind is one thread, on the entire internet, that can discuss snakes. I could not care less what another website thinks about the Leafs' chances of making the playoffs or Tampa's odds of winning the Cup.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

The purple snake rests for game #42, but goes 8-0-1 in games 43-51. The red snake would have to win the next 12 games to pass the purple snake after game 52. It would need a record of 29-12-0 to finish the season with more points than the purple snake. 29-11-1 would tie it.

The red snake did not win the next 12 games, but it did win the next 8 games, and went 11-1-1 over the 13 games made since the quoted comment. What does this mean? It means the red snake is now tied with the purple snake at 9.780 points above the black line! If the Flames win on Monday night, the red snake would go above the purple snake for the first time since the conclusion of game #27. Since the red snake dipped below the black line after game #36, it has compiled a record of 15-2-1, which is a 141 point pace. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

The red snake is on pace for 111 points on the season. A record of 0-5-23 (67 point season's pace) in the remaining 28 games would have it finish at 96 points.

Regular:


Extra crispy:

[SebC]

May I suggest that the charts be extended to 82 games, rather than 62?

[Reggie Dunlop]

[squiggs96]

Tonight's win moves the Flames to a record of 34-14-7 over the first 55 games. The red snake is a season's best 10.610 points above the black line and is now 1 point above the purple snake.

The red snake is on pace for 112 points on the season. A record of 0-6-21 (64 point season's pace) in the remaining 27 games would have it finish at 96 points.

Regular:


Extra crispy:

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

A record of 0-6-21 (64 point season's pace) in the remaining 27 games would have it finish at 96 points.

when 10-6-1 is too basic

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by ducay

when 10-6-1 is too basic

6 + 21 = 27
10 + 6 + 1 = 17