Russia invades Ukraine

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

As much as we like to think that things like this are going to happen, its more hollywood then anything else and not likely to happen.

Putin isn't getting assassinated, and he's ruthless enough about the supression of his own people and seems to have strong control on the his internal security apparatus.

I'm fairly certain that if his inner circle rises up a lot of them will be found face down in a bowl of soup. I expect while there are some elements in the FSB that might have thoughts of rebellion, but I also think that Putin has very strong control over the majority.

Frankly and to be honest, Ukraine and the international community are going to have to cede quite a bit to get Russia to leave. A normalization time line on a reduction of the sanctions, the Crimea staying in Russian control and the Eastern part of Ukraine relabeled as independent states. As well, yeah a guarantee that Ukraine doesn't join NATO or the EU. (Though that one could be broken with time).

The next step for Russia is pressure. While its great that the international community is supplying arms. Its the men's side of the equation that can't be replaced easily, and Ukraine's resistance has to be taking casualties and those can't be replaced.

With the call for Russian made planes, I expect that the Ukrainian airforce is either at the breaking point or broken at this point. And while small arms and anti tank rounds for example are probably easy to get in. Its a different story for things like fuel, and advanced air to air weapons and spare parts for equipment.

Putin will dig in, he'll try to up the blood shed and his propaganda effort and even with the Ukrainian resistance fighting really hard and well, the longer this goes the more the forces balance shifts to the Russian side.

As well, Putin probably won't try to take the capital, he'll just keep pounding it, he might not even try to take cities anymore, he'll just level them.. He doesn't seem to care about public opinion.

With NATO not agreeing to a no fly zone, or infusion of troops, Putin knows that he can push now for an agreement on his terms.

But I doubt we see an over throw, and what's behind him is worse.

Also we have to look at the fact that Russia has 5500 nuclear warheads. So if Russia is broken, or region cede or whatever, we have a uncontrollable rogue state with the ability to level the planet.


If this war goes another month or two months, at some point Ukraine ceases to exist as a viable nation.

So what? Putin wins then?

[you&me]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Russia would be getting Ukraine's giving recognition to Russia that parts of their sovereign territory are now independent (likely soon to annexed by Russia). So in practical terms, Russia will have succeeded in territorial gains from the war.

The flip side of that is, in practical terms, those territories are only loosely Ukrainian already... IMO, making it official is a small price to pay to stop the war now, especially if there is a financial consideration, even if it's not officially for the territories, i.e. instead of $10B for rebuilding, Russia pays $15B for "rebuilding"

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

So what? Putin wins then?

Wasn't that always the forgone conclusion?

With the west helping Ukraine to the extent we are, I feel like we're just inflicting as much damage on Russia as we can via this unique opportunity, but I had never imagined Ukraine actually winning here. Russia was always the favourite to win.

[Itse]

My friend Vera (native Russian speaker who's family escaped from Soviet Russia and who has vowed to never ever step a foot in that country again) is keeping it light in her FB by translating Russian humour she's seeing on social media.

Jokes obviously rarely translate well, but I thought this might humour people anyway. (Russian humour in my experience tends to be pretty dark at the best of times :P)

(I'm toning down many of the wordings here.)

To appease government censors, Tolstoy's "War and Peace" has been renamed "Special operations and Treason".

Putin at a fortuneteller:
"I see you in a limo among happy crowds, they are overjoyed, they are laughing, singing, jumping..."
"Am I waving at them?"
"No, the coffin lid is closed."

Covid-19 is withdrawing from Russia with all its variants.

The madam in a brothel hears one of the girls scream "no, no, anything but that!" The madam rushes into the room and sees the horrified young woman.
"Honey, what's happening? Did the client ask for something horrible?"
"Yes! He wanted to pay in rubles!"

"In 1978 my classmates condemned me as a traitor of the Fatherland. In 1981 they somehow found out my address and asked me to send them some jeans. In 1987 they asked for an invitation, just to see [the country she was living in]. In the 1990's they suggested doing business together. In 2000's they asked for advice in buying real estate and opening bank accounts. In 2010's they sent photos from 5-star resorts. In 2014 they told me to go #### myself because of my position on Crimea. Now they are calling me a Bandera kike because of my position on Ukraine.
The circle has closed.

Now I am expecting them to ask for jeans again."

The international credit rating agencies reduced Russia's rating from BBB to USSR.

(Ultranationalist crazyperson/politician) Zhirinovsky wakes up from a coma and gets told the news:
- We invaded Ukraine, we're threatening the US with our nuclear weapons and soon we shall wash our boots in the Indian ocean!
- Are you crazy? I never actually meant any of it!

The war has served to spread some Russian words around the world. People all over world now know "huy", "Putin huilo" and "russky korabl, idi na huy".
Another important word to learn would be "sovkodrocher", which literally means a person who masturbates at the thought of the Soviet Union, or a Soviet-wanker.
Putin is therefore sovkodrocher-in-chief.

"Why do you keep looking at the front pages of all newspapers?"
"Looking for an obituary."
"But all the obituaries are on page 16?"
"The one I am looking for will be on the first page."

Q: Whoever managed to convince people who believe Putin's BS that they are wrong, please write me which arguments were the most effective. I really need it.
A: You punch them in the face, and say that this was not a punch in the face, but a special operation to make your point to the opponent.

A man writes "Prick!" on a wall. A policeman sees it and gives the man a fine for insulting the president. "But I didn't even say who's the prick!", protests the man. "I know perfectly well who's the prick around here" answers the policeman.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Russia would be getting Ukraine's giving recognition to Russia that parts of their sovereign territory are now independent (likely soon to annexed by Russia). So in practical terms, Russia will have succeeded in territorial gains from the war.

Once again, it's only a recognition of what's already occurred. I agree though, depending on how it's worded that will be seen as a gain/loss, but it's realistically only a matter of perception. The East already is independent, and Crimea already belongs to Russia.

Russia is potentially, however, losing in a big way economically and politically. IMO, this remains a massive loss for Russia. They would have been much better off continuing their slow war of attrition in the East. Now, they've exposed themselves as war hungry and incompetent. They have a rapidly shrinking, and soon to be much poorer, population. Their days as a superpower are ending, and they are increasingly becoming a geographically larger North Korea.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Wasn't that always the forgone conclusion?

With the west helping Ukraine to the extent we are, I feel like we're just inflicting as much damage on Russia as we can via this unique opportunity, but I had never imagined Ukraine actually winning here. Russia was always the favourite to win.

More and More I am thinking Russia might accept a "DMZ" along their boarder with Ukraine which would include the two breakaway republics and Crimea.

The trouble is if I was Ukraine I would most certainly want to be part of NATO to accept that deal.

It a ####ing mess to be honest.

[Harju]

Originally Posted by Itse

My friend Vera (native Russian speaker who's family escaped from Soviet Russia and who has vowed to never ever step a foot in that country again) is keeping it light in her FB by translating Russian humour she's seeing on social media.

Jokes obviously rarely translate well, but I thought this might humour people anyway. (Russian humour in my experience tends to be pretty dark at the best of times :P)

(I'm toning down many of the wordings here.)

Another example of dark Russian humour: In order to help finance the war effort the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off.

[Fuzz]

The problem with any negotiation or deal with Putin is he isn't an honest actor. He's continually lied about reason for the war, what they would be doing, cease fires...so how do you have a good faith agreement with him? Probably only works if Putin is gone and you can negotiate with others.

[afc wimbledon]

Ultimately it will be the Ukraine that decides, for once I am glad 'we' have been clear what the west will and wont do so they can accuratly decide on what they should and shouldnt accept

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Russia would be getting Ukraine's giving recognition to Russia that parts of their sovereign territory are now independent (likely soon to annexed by Russia). So in practical terms, Russia will have succeeded in territorial gains from the war.

I suppose, but the Ukrainian government had lost control of much of those areas a while ago anyway. Here's a map of where the lines stood in 2021:




I mean, morally it's obvious that Russia should **** off out of there and be punished for their aggression, but that's not how international relations and wars work. If there can be a peaceful settlement that saves tens of thousands (or more) lives, then that's something that needs to be done, even if it requires concessions from Ukraine. Eschewing a possible ceasefire and pouring a bunch of arms into Ukraine and creating a long-term insurgency just to keep Donbas and Luhansk nominally as part of Ukraine seems like a pretty horrific gamble.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Ultimately it will be the Ukraine that decides, for once I am glad 'we' have been clear what the west will and wont do so they can accuratly decide on what they should and shouldnt accept

And I hope train load upon train load of weapons is something The West will do.

Great time to measure the effectiveness of the weapons.

[burn_this_city]

Ukraine apparently sunk a newer Russian stealth patrol boat in the Black Sea with Grad rockets in Odessa.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500797084726964231

[Itse]

Oh, and a couple of Radio Yerevan jokes. (These are in part jokes about state media, and date back to the Soviet era.)

"Radio Yerevan was asked: can you get 15 years in prison for calling Putin a stupid homicidal a-hole?"
Radio Yerevan answers: Yes you can, because that's a state secret."

"Radio Yerevan was asked, is it true that half the Russian government are crooks and the other half are greedy fools?
Radio Yerevan answers: we can assure you, that half of the government are NOT crooks, and half of them are NOT greedy fools."

Radio Yerevan was asked, is it true that Grigori Grigorievich captured a whole platoon of Ukrainians with a single tank in Kiev?
Radio Yerevan answers: It's true, but it wasn't in Kiev but rather in Minsk, and it wasn't a platoon but rather three retirees, and he didn't capture them but rather they stole his tank."

"Radio Yerevan was asked, what banks will be safe after the crisis?
Radio Yerevan answers, we can guarantee it's safe to keep your money both under the pillow AND under the mattress."

"Radio Yerevan was asked, if the operation in Ukraine is going according to plan, why is our economy collapsing after the first week?
Radio Yerevan answers: Wait until you see the plans for the second week!"

Plus a tweet. I think you need to click it to see the whole text.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500456980774797316

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500147298520768515


LOL. Be a real shame if raw sewage found its way into that elevator shaft from above. Real shame.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500147298520768515


LOL. Be a real shame if raw sewage found its way into that elevator shaft from above. Real shame.

Bunch of lazy ####s.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500147298520768515


LOL. Be a real shame if raw sewage found its way into that elevator shaft from above. Real shame.

Leave 'em in there for a few days and they can produce their own.

[GreenLantern2814]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500863852640026624

The trucker convoys couldn’t possibly be a Russian psy op.

Not at all.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by Itse

My friend Vera (native Russian speaker who's family escaped from Soviet Russia and who has vowed to never ever step a foot in that country again) is keeping it light in her FB by translating Russian humour she's seeing on social media.

"In 1978 my classmates condemned me as a traitor of the Fatherland. In 1981 they somehow found out my address and asked me to send them some jeans. In 1987 they asked for an invitation, just to see [the country she was living in]. In the 1990's they suggested doing business together. In 2000's they asked for advice in buying real estate and opening bank accounts. In 2010's they sent photos from 5-star resorts. In 2014 they told me to go #### myself because of my position on Crimea. Now they are calling me a Bandera kike because of my position on Ukraine.
The circle has closed.

Now I am expecting them to ask for jeans again."

This one, in particular, is very reminiscent.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I suppose, but the Ukrainian government had lost control of much of those areas a while ago anyway. Here's a map of where the lines stood in 2021:

I know, but it still comes across as appeasement and legalizing land gains by right of conquest.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500147298520768515


LOL. Be a real shame if a Molotov cocktail found its way into that elevator shaft from above. Real shame.

Fixed your post.