Russia invades Ukraine

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500810351192985600

How 'bout no?

I don't think think any negotiated peace would be that far off If you look at the points:

• Take the emotions out of it, and I doubt Europe is THAT interested in welcoming Ukraine into the fold. EU maybe, NATO definitely not. Also, in the long-term, Ukraine acting as a buffer between West/Russia is probably not the worst thing to have.
• Crimea is more or less already Russian.
• This is probably the biggest sticking point.

We need to keep in mind that while the West has played their trump card, Russia hasn't with their energy supply...so there is still the potential for real pain in Europe. Putin already screwed his country's economic prospects, but his ego is too big without some sort of "win"... and Europe may give him a good chunk of these items to prevent economic/political disaster in their own countries.

Of course this is from a Europe/West POV. Ukraine will probably think otherwise!

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

As much as we like to think that things like this are going to happen, its more hollywood then anything else and not likely to happen. Putin isn't getting assassinated, and he's ruthless enough about the supression of his own people and seems to have strong control on the his internal security apparatus.

I'm fairly certain that if his inner circle rises up a lot of them will be found face down in a bowl of soup. I expect while there are some elements in the FSB that might have thoughts of rebellion, but I also think that Putin has very strong control over the majority. Frankly and to be honest, Ukraine and the international community are going to have to cede quite a bit to get Russia to leave. A normalization time line on a reduction of the sanctions, the Crimea staying in Russian control and the Eastern part of Ukraine relabeled as independent states. As well, yeah a guarantee that Ukraine doesn't join NATO or the EU. (Though that one could be broken with time).

The next step for Russia is pressure. While its great that the international community is supplying arms. Its the men's side of the equation that can't be replaced easily, and Ukraine's resistance has to be taking casualties and those can't be replaced. With the call for Russian made planes, I expect that the Ukrainian airforce is either at the breaking point or broken at this point. And while small arms and anti tank rounds for example are probably easy to get in. Its a different story for things like fuel, and advanced air to air weapons and spare parts for equipment.

Putin will dig in, he'll try to up the blood shed and his propaganda effort and even with the Ukrainian resistance fighting really hard and well, the longer this goes the more the forces balance shifts to the Russian side. As well, Putin probably won't try to take the capital, he'll just keep pounding it, he might not even try to take cities anymore, he'll just level them.. He doesn't seem to care about public opinion.

With NATO not agreeing to a no fly zone, or infusion of troops, Putin knows that he can push now for an agreement on his terms. But I doubt we see an over throw, and what's behind him is worse. Also we have to look at the fact that Russia has 5500 nuclear warheads. So if Russia is broken, or region cede or whatever, we have a uncontrollable rogue state with the ability to level the planet.

If this war goes another month or two months, at some point Ukraine ceases to exist as a viable nation.

Very quick fix to your post*

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

I'm sure you're right but to me, that's crazy because what's to stop a country in a conflict from just violating every rule of engagement knowing that if they win, they'll get off scot free. And further to that, if they do violate anything that makes them more likely to double down knowing that if they did lose the war then they'd be more likely to get sanctioned for their behaviour.

There's nothing, really the mechanisms don't have the teeth on in terms of militarily. Also if that country has the nuclear trump card, then there's really nothing at all.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Giving them everything they want essentially justifies the conflict and tells the world that Putin was right.

It also says you can do #### like this with impunity and without repercussion

Not a chance can you send that message on either issue

At the end of the day, the Ukraine can't join NATO and won't get the Crimea back. What's new in the agreement is the separatist provinces in the east. There had already been a fairly major ongoing conflict there, de facto separatist governments in power, and likely eventual "independence", at some point.

What Russia is demanding is the likely outcome, it's a question of the amount of blood shed it takes to get there.

Imo no one wins here. Russia tried to flex, but revealed themselves as pretty incompetent. Hopefully, the west finally moves away from buying oil from totalitarian states, which was something that they didn't need to do on the first place.

There's still major room for repercussions, in the form of heavy economic sanctions. The West needs to stick to their guns.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Serious question. Will there actually end up being any repercussions for any of this or will it all magically go away when there's a ceasefire? I don't honestly know the answer and am curious how regimes are held in check when it comes to the Geneva Convention.

There were quite a few war crimes committed in Iraq with no consequences, so I don't see how this is any different

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Also we have to look at the fact that Russia has 5500 nuclear warheads. So if Russia is broken, or region cede or whatever, we have a uncontrollable rogue state with the ability to level the planet.

I imagine this isn’t being overlooked by the top decision-makers in the West. A clean regime-change that gets rid of Putin would be a good thing. But a descent into turmoil of the Russian state would be a very bad thing. War has away of throwing up surprises, and the last thing you want when dealing with a major nuclear power is wild uncertainty.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

source please

The guy who was UN general secretary comes to mind.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I don't think think any negotiated peace would be that far off If you look at the points:

• Take the emotions out of it, and I doubt Europe is THAT interested in welcoming Ukraine into the fold. EU maybe, NATO definitely not. Also, in the long-term, Ukraine acting as a buffer between West/Russia is probably not the worst thing to have.
• Crimea is more or less already Russian.
• This is probably the biggest sticking point.

We need to keep in mind that while the West has played their trump card, Russia hasn't with their energy supply...so there is still the potential for real pain in Europe. Putin already screwed his country's economic prospects, but his ego is too big without some sort of "win"... and Europe may give him a good chunk of these items to prevent economic/political disaster in their own countries.

Of course this is from a Europe/West POV. Ukraine will probably think otherwise!

I think you do make some good points, but I don't think Ukraine can accept it without some major compensation. Russia should pay for rebuilding, and if they want those regions to be apart of Russia, should be forced to buy them. Right now it's just a list of demands, with no offers.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by blankall

At the end of the day, the Ukraine can't join NATO and won't get the Crimea back. What's new in the agreement is the separatist provinces in the east. There had already been a fairly major ongoing conflict there, de facto separatist governments in power, and likely eventual "independence", at some point.

What Russia is demanding is the likely outcome, it's a question of the amount of blood shed it takes to get there.

Imo no one wins here. Russia tried to flex, but revealed themselves as pretty incompetent. Hopefully, the west finally moves away from buying oil from totalitarian states, which was something that they didn't need to do on the first place.

There's still major room for repercussions, in the form of heavy economic sanctions. The West needs to stick to their guns.

If they add “Russia and Russian allied countries will not attack Ukraine for 100 years” then maybe there is a starting point for negotiations. If not, what is to prevent Russia from taking a break, re-supplying, and giving it another go?

[CliffFletcher]

Has the effectivness of UN peacekeepers been completely discredited?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Has the effectivness of UN peacekeepers been completely discredited?

A long time ago.


I've been talking about the need for proper peace enforcement for decades.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Has the effectivness of UN peacekeepers been completely discredited?

Yeah it doesn't work.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I'm shocked, shocked I say, to note that none of Russia's demands appear to in any way involve "de-Nazification" or even anyone's resignation.

They actually aren't that far off, though. Obviously Ukraine is joining the EU if Zelenskyy's regime makes it through this, but I wouldn't think NATO will even let them in. Crimea is already a lost cause, it seems like. The eastern areas are a sticking point, I'm sure, but that might just be the price you pay to the crazy guy to get him to stop blowing up your schools and hospitals. The key is obviously the money - reparations, and how reconstruction is to be done. But I would think Russia would have a lot of room to negotiate there, given how much the sanctions are costing them, that they're better off paying for Ukraine to be rebuilt twice over if they can get those sanctions lifted.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I think you do make some good points, but I don't think Ukraine can accept it without some major compensation. Russia should pay for rebuilding, and if they want those regions to be apart of Russia, should be forced to buy them. Right now it's just a list of demands, with no offers.

Yeah, I imagine Ukraine would/will want plenty of $ to rebuild (the cynical part of me is already cringing at upcoming corruption to do so, but that's a problem for another day).

In hindsight, compared to them just outright offering to buy the regions in the first place, I imagine this has already cost Russia multiple times in military spending and future economic loss. But that probably would've been seen as weakness for Putin...he'd never buy something that he thinks already belongs to Russia.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I'm shocked, shocked I say, to note that none of Russia's demands appear to in any way involve "de-Nazification" or even anyone's resignation.

They actually aren't that far off, though. Obviously Ukraine is joining the EU if Zelenskyy's regime makes it through this, but I wouldn't think NATO will even let them in. Crimea is already a lost cause, it seems like. The eastern areas are a sticking point, I'm sure, but that might just be the price you pay to the crazy guy to get him to stop blowing up your schools and hospitals. The key is obviously the money - reparations, and how reconstruction is to be done. But I would think Russia would have a lot of room to negotiate there, given how much the sanctions are costing them, that they're better off paying for Ukraine to be rebuilt twice over if they can get those sanctions lifted.

Lift the sanctions if Russian Troops return to their original start up points in lets say a week. That includes corridors carrying fuel and food to both the russian troops and Ukrainian cities that are unfettered.



If the sanctions are lifted negotiate with the Russian's for reconstruction funds.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The guy who was UN general secretary comes to mind.

only 49,999 to go.

[you&me]

I've seen several news agencies today citing a Ukrainian minister estimating the damage to infrastructure at $10B...

Should this be seen as an encouraging sign? As-in, why bother estimating the cost of damage if there's no end in site?

[calgarygeologist]

Somewhat off topic but my grandma lives in Poland and my mom usually spends 5 or 6 months over there. My mom is heading over in a week and the plan is for her and my Grandma to fly to Calgary in June. My grandma's passport expires in 6 months so it needs to be renewed before flying over here and right now there is a huge rush for passport services in Poland because of the Ukraine situation. My grandma lives in a small town outside of Wroclaw so she needs to travel either there or to some other smaller nearby cities and one of her neighbors did the trip last week to start a passport renewal. I was told that just to get into the passport office to get the papers for a passport the wait was 10 hours. When my mom arrives she said that the first thing they plan to do is to get the passport situation figured out and she said they will likely have to get to the office very early in the morning, bring some folding chairs and blankets and basically camp out there all day.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Lift the sanctions if Russian Troops return to their original start up points in lets say a week. That includes corridors carrying fuel and food to both the russian troops and Ukrainian cities that are unfettered.



If the sanctions are lifted negotiate with the Russian's for reconstruction funds.

I don’t think that is enough.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

only 49,999 to go.

The fact that the allies kept the civil infrastructure in Germany in place after WW2 is well know, and it was all nazi, police chiefs, mayors, head teachers etc it is a huge reason why the occupation of Germany was a success and the occupation of Iraq was the massive failure, we executed around 500 nazis officially, probably a few hundred more unofficially, it took far more Nazi's than that to just administer the holocaust alone