Russia invades Ukraine

[Enoch Root]

the Ruble is getting pounded today - 143 now

It was following pretty closely to the price of oil - both were at about 100 at the start of this, and continued to drift through 110, but the Ruble has dropped anther 20% today

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500810351192985600

How 'bout no?

I would probably take it. With a firm and fast timetable for Russian withdrawal under international monitors, and an assurance from international partners that sanctions will continue indefinitely.

Save lives, but continue the economic punishment.

[krynski]

I didn't think this war could be more unethical. I am saddened to be surprised again.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500818765356965891?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500861217602256899?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

At least the Russians are talking. If things were going well for the Russians they wouldn't be making these kids of demands early on.

Yes, but when things aren't going well, and you're still demanding your entire wish list, it's not much of a negotiation

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, but when things aren't going well, and you're still demanding your entire wish list, it's not much of a negotiation

its an opening bid.

at this point id try to see Ukraine settle for:
-Cede Crimea
-Agree not to join NATO but not in their constitution but leave EU open
-A 3rd party agreement with UK/USA to receive heavy investment in modernizing their airforce and military

But I'm not Ukrainian. That's going to be up to them.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

I would probably take it. With a firm and fast timetable for Russian withdrawal under international monitors, and an assurance from international partners that sanctions will continue indefinitely.

Save lives, but continue the economic punishment.

Giving them everything they want essentially justifies the conflict and tells the world that Putin was right.

It also says you can do #### like this with impunity and without repercussion

Not a chance can you send that message on either issue

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by krynski

I didn't think this war could be more unethical. I am saddened to be surprised again.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500818765356965891

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500861217602256899

Serious question. Will there actually end up being any repercussions for any of this or will it all magically go away when there's a ceasefire? I don't honestly know the answer and am curious how regimes are held in check when it comes to the Geneva Convention.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Serious question. Will there actually end up being any repercussions for any of this or will it all magically go away when there's a ceasefire? I don't honestly know the answer and am curious how regimes are held in check when it comes to the Geneva Convention.

Not an expert, but I assume like most things it depends on how the war ends.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Giving them everything they want essentially justifies the conflict and tells the world that Putin was right.

It also says you can do #### like this with impunity and without repercussion

Not a chance can you send that message on either issue

Yeah, definitely a tough decision. Wouldn't blame Ukraine for fighting on. However, you have to realize that "the message" sent on either issue contains tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives, so a much heavier decision for them than any outsider.

If Ukraine believes that the outcome will eventually resemble what Russia proposed, except with an exceptionally bloody path there, taking it or something close to it makes sense.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by Robo

Really? That is crazy

Fingers crossed! Don't know the logistics of it but that's the general plan.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Serious question. Will there actually end up being any repercussions for any of this or will it all magically go away when there's a ceasefire? I don't honestly know the answer and am curious how regimes are held in check when it comes to the Geneva Convention.

Bottom line is Putin shouldn't survive this; taken by his own people, assassinated, executed by a world court etc but Putin cannot live past this invasion. His life should be over.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

Bottom line is Putin shouldn't survive this; taken by his own people, assassinated, executed by a world court etc but Putin cannot live past this invasion. His life should be over.

I agree with you, but another will arise from his inner circle cadre (Medvedev or Shoigu come to mind) that are just as dangerous. And there is no shortage of people inside Russia that would capitalize on the power vaccuum to take glory for themselves, like what happened after the fall of the USSR in 1991.

If Putin goes, there indeed would likely be civil strife that would have some seriously dark days. I don't see any peaceful transition to replace Putin.

[Matata]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Serious question. Will there actually end up being any repercussions for any of this or will it all magically go away when there's a ceasefire? I don't honestly know the answer and am curious how regimes are held in check when it comes to the Geneva Convention.

It's extraordinarily rare for war criminals to pay for their crimes, a byproduct of our world being largely run by war criminals.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Matata

It's extraordinarily rare for war criminals to pay for their crimes, a byproduct of our world being largely run by war criminals.

It would be nice to see something like this post conflict:

https://www.icty.org/

https://www.icty.org/en/cases/judgement-list

That being said There is no way we see snatch teams flying around Russia (or even Ukraine) to pick up these #######s.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Not an expert, but I assume like most things it depends on how the war ends.

I'm sure you're right but to me, that's crazy because what's to stop a country in a conflict from just violating every rule of engagement knowing that if they win, they'll get off scot free. And further to that, if they do violate anything that makes them more likely to double down knowing that if they did lose the war then they'd be more likely to get sanctioned for their behaviour.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Matata

It's extraordinarily rare for war criminals to pay for their crimes, a byproduct of our world being largely run by war criminals.

More a byproduct of a world where there’s no authority higher than the nation-state able to carry out punishment by force.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

Bottom line is Putin shouldn't survive this; taken by his own people, assassinated, executed by a world court etc but Putin cannot live past this invasion. His life should be over.

He won't be.

A lot of countries will take him in and protect him.

besides, with 200 billion or whatever he has, that buys a lot of friends.

He'll never go on trial for war crimes. never.


and as per the post above, the land mines in a humanitarian corridor is just chilling. ####ing russia.

[Matata]

For every Nazi that was hung, 50,000 got cushy jobs.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Matata

For every Nazi that was hung, 50,000 got cushy jobs.

source please

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

Bottom line is Putin shouldn't survive this; taken by his own people, assassinated, executed by a world court etc but Putin cannot live past this invasion. His life should be over.

As much as we like to think that things like this are going to happen, its more hollywood then anything else and not likely to happen.

Putin isn't getting assassinated, and he's ruthless enough about the supression of his own people and seems to have strong control on the his internal security apparatus.

I'm fairly certain that if his inner circle rises up a lot of them will be found face down in a bowl of soup. I expect while there are some elements in the FSB that might have thoughts of rebellion, but I also think that Putin has very strong control over the majority.

Frankly and to be honest, Ukraine and the international community are going to have to cede quite a bit to get Russia to leave. A normalization time line on a reduction of the sanctions, the Crimea staying in Russian control and the Eastern part of Ukraine relabeled as independent states. As well, yeah a guarantee that Ukraine doesn't join NATO or the EU. (Though that one could be broken with time).

The next step for Russia is pressure. While its great that the international community is supplying arms. Its the men's side of the equation that can't be replaced easily, and Ukraine's resistance has to be taking casualties and those can't be replaced.

With the call for Russian made planes, I expect that the Ukrainian airforce is either at the breaking point or broken at this point. And while small arms and anti tank rounds for example are probably easy to get in. Its a different story for things like fuel, and advanced air to air weapons and spare parts for equipment.

Putin will dig in, he'll try to up the blood shed and his propaganda effort and even with the Ukrainian resistance fighting really hard and well, the longer this goes the more the forces balance shifts to the Russian side.

As well, Putin probably won't try to take the capital, he'll just keep pounding it, he might not even try to take cities anymore, he'll just level them.. He doesn't seem to care about public opinion.

With NATO not agreeing to a no fly zone, or infusion of troops, Putin knows that he can push now for an agreement on his terms.

But I doubt we see an over throw, and what's behind him is worse.

Also we have to look at the fact that Russia has 5500 nuclear warheads. So if Russia is broken, or region cede or whatever, we have a uncontrollable rogue state with the ability to level the planet.


If this war goes another month or two months, at some point Ukraine ceases to exist as a viable nation.