[News] Monahan knows what's on the line this season: 'I have a lot to prove'

[Harry Lime]

Dube-Monahan-Toffoli looked dangerous and good.
Lucic-Monahan-Toffoli looks slow and disjointed.

It's that simple.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^ He hasn’t produced. But plus minus is dumb.

Not a fan of dismissive posts like this. It’s not dumb when we are patting the back of Gaudreau, Lindholm, and Tkachuk for being leaders in the league or using it as negatives against Oilers players.. It can’t be ignored he’s the only Flame that is a double digit negative.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Not a fan of dismissive posts like this. It’s not dumb when we are patting the back of Gaudreau, Lindholm, and Tkachuk for being leaders in the league or using it as negatives against Oilers players.. It can’t be ignored he’s the only Flame that is a double digit negative.

I’ve never used that stat to praise or criticize any player ever. It’s a dumb stat that doesn’t show much, if anything, at all.

ETA: I didn’t know those three were league leaders. Why? Because I never look at that stat because it’s a dumb stat.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’ve never used that stat to praise or criticize any player ever. It’s a dumb stat that doesn’t show much, if anything, at all.

ETA: I didn’t know those three were league leaders. Why? Because I never look at that stat because it’s a dumb stat.

It’s a dumb stat wher a player you are trying to defend is poor in that metric.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It’s a dumb stat wher a player you are trying to defend is poor in that metric.

It’s also a dumb stat when a player I like is great in that metric. I never ever to it at all.

I’m not defending Monahan either. He’s not having a good year, not bouncing back like I hoped and should be traded. But not because of plus minus.

Here’s an example of why it’s bad. Tkachuk plays on the same line as Gaudreau and Lindholm but is 6 points behind in plus minus. That shows right there that it’s a function of luck on the line change and circumstance. Somehow Tkachuk wound up not on the ice when 6 goals were scored for or he was on and the others weren’t when goals were scored against.

And even when they’re on the ice when a goal is scored, they could be doing their job perfectly, and it’s someone else messing up, or the opposition just made a great play. Dumb stat no matter what it says for a player.

[Erick Estrada]

It’s a tool just like all stats that is used in player evaluation or the league wouldn’t count it. Your opinion doesn’t change that.

[Erick Estrada]

His play has degraded to the point I would consider buying him out before Lucic. I’m sure he’s a good guy, players like him and it’s a shame it’s come to this but he’s just not a good player anymore.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It’s a tool just like all stats that is used in player evaluation or the league wouldn’t count it. Your opinion doesn’t change that.

Nope, it doesn’t. But I doubt anyone seriously scouting a player does.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

His play has degraded to the point I would consider buying him out before Lucic. I’m sure he’s a good guy, players like him and it’s a shame it’s come to this but he’s just not a good player anymore.

A buyout is not necessary. He can be traded with retention - much better result.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

A buyout is not necessary. He can be traded with retention - much better result.

Going to be difficult because of his NTC. The teams that would be willing to take a trade like that such as the Coyotes will not likely be on his list of teams he would accept a trade. I’m sure teams that scout him see the same player we do as he’s been on the block for years with not suitable takers. Only hope is that he has a good playoffs that may convince a team he has gas left in the tank.

[iggyloob12]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Going to be difficult because of his NTC. The teams that would be willing to take a trade like that such as the Coyotes will not likely be on his list of teams he would accept a trade. I’m sure teams that scout him see the same player we do as he’s been on the block for years with not suitable takers. Only hope is that he has a good playoffs that may convince a team he has gas left in the tank.

It's probably in his best interests to waive. If they can't trade him, it increases the likelihood of a buyout, which would save the Flames $4M off the cap next year.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Going to be difficult because of his NTC. The teams that would be willing to take a trade like that such as the Coyotes will not likely be on his list of teams he would accept a trade. I’m sure teams that scout him see the same player we do as he’s been on the block for years with not suitable takers. Only hope is that he has a good playoffs that may convince a team he has gas left in the tank.

His NTC ain’t too strong. And if his choice is buyout or get paid in full, he takes paid in full.

Teams scout all right, but you see trades for fading players/reclamations all the time.

Monahan at $3.5M is a pretty good deal.

[iggyloob12]

For a bottom-dweller like Arizona, they could get an asset(s) from the Flames to take on the last year of Monahan's contract. But they'd also get a veteran who could help younger players, a guy who has improved at defending, can take faceoffs, play the powerplay. And there's a slight possibility of a rebound if his hip progresses next season. Either way, that sets them up to sell Monahan at the deadline as a depth piece or contributor.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by iggyloob12

For a bottom-dweller like Arizona, they could get an asset(s) from the Flames to take on the last year of Monahan's contract. But they'd also get a veteran who could help younger players, a guy who has improved at defending, can take faceoffs, play the powerplay. And there's a slight possibility of a rebound if his hip progresses next season. Either way, that sets them up to sell Monahan at the deadline as a depth piece or contributor.

And a lot of players like living in AZ. Pretty good place to spend spring.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

His NTC ain’t too strong. And if his choice is buyout or get paid in full, he takes paid in full.

Teams scout all right, but you see trades for fading players/reclamations all the time.

Monahan at $3.5M is a pretty good deal.

I expect he might actually take the buyout, as he could then sign another contract with a preferred team. He actually might come out ahead financially.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I expect he might actually take the buyout, as he could then sign another contract with a preferred team. He actually might come out ahead financially.

I’m reliably told no team will sign him because he’s a big liability.

Seriously, that’s a possibility and it’s been done before but it’s a big uncertainty and players generally don’t like that. I suspect that would be even more so for him with his health.

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Nope, it doesn’t. But I doubt anyone seriously scouting a player does.

Of course they do. Plus minus is pretty telling when looking at a team as a whole. Monahan has been on the ice for far more goals against than he scores. Hes in another level when it comes to this on this Flames team. No other player is even close.

Why do you think this is?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Of course they do. Plus minus is pretty telling when looking at a team as a whole. Monahan has been on the ice for far more goals against than he scores. Hes in another level when it comes to this on this Flames team. No other player is even close.

Why do you think this is?

No - actual scouts are a little more nuanced and in depth than using plus minus stats.

As to why the number is there - a whole combination of things. Everyone knows how flawed a stat it is - I’m surprised people are relying on it. Probably because counting stats don’t help the argument that much.

[GioforPM]

Back on the NTC - it’s a 10 team list so hard to control, and he only has one year left so I bet he’d waive for almost anywhere.

[Bingo]

Plus minus is a result, it doesn't measure how a player is playing.

Over a big enough sample size how he's playing and what the results are should converge, but sometimes they don't.

Monahan is a plus player in expected results but has a lower save percentage when on the ice, and he and his linemates (Dube specifically) haven't finished well.

I don't think anyone wants a bad plus minus but we now have the ability to dig way deeper so it's become much less relevant.