1) There is a significant humanitarian cost to sanctions. Both millions of Russians who are directly affected and potentially billions of people in developing nations who are going to have reduced access to food and fuel because of rising prices.
2) If there is no plausible off ramp, then Russia's incentive is to inflict maximum damage, since there are unlikely to be additional consequences that result from that. The safest way for this to end is for Russian leadership to be convinced that deescalation is less costly than continuing the war. If the sanctions will never be lifted, then there is basically no cost to continuing the war and they will get increasingly desperate and dangerous.
The plausible off ramp is withdraw forces back to Russian territory and leave the sovereign nation of Ukraine to make their own choices. Seems pretty easy.
As for point 1.... pointman doesn't seem concerned, and I have full faith in western nations to pick up the slack in the commodity markets. We've seen $150+ oil before.
You're only looking at it from the sales side though, when you also have to take into consideration the production aspect. Russia may not be important to China as a customer, but they are probably very important to them as a supplier of commodities. Russia is full of oil, gas, aluminum, copper, nickel, wheat, fertilizer etc. and China is a commodity monster that just eats up anything it can get to fuel its own economy. Without access to a stable supply, it too suffers...which is probably why they are abstaining from any sanctions.
Let's face it, Russia shut off from the rest of the world will have repercussions for all of us. Europe will probably be the one to suffer the most, at least in the short/medium term, as they are so reliant on Russian energy and wheat. But it will reverberate in China, and North America, and everywhere else. There was already a commodity crunch BEFORE all this Russia stuff came around...this will just make it worse.
Also don't forget that Ukraine also provides the world with a lot of commodities. I believe even the largest poultry plant in the world is located there. (could be wrong on that).
China can be Russia first all they want, but if Russian actions lead to them having issues getting the commodities they need, then its a different story.
There are some rather grim videos, if you search Gostomel on twitter right now which was pushed hard by Russians and retaken / held by Ukrainian forces in the past 24 hours. A complete total war zone. Very raw, NSFL, not going to post the links but they are very prevalent on Twitter right now.
The russian army has been completely decimated there. Body parts everywhere and soldiers hanging from tanks. Videos of Russians deliberately shelling apartment buildings point blank as well before they are getting killed.
Ukraine now has several more RPO-A Thermobarics in their hands now.
The plausible off ramp is withdraw forces back to Russian territory and leave the sovereign nation of Ukraine to make their own choices. Seems pretty easy.
Why would they do that if Western powers (as you suggested) weren't going to remove sanctions as long as Putin remained in power?
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As for point 1.... pointman doesn't seem concerned, and I have full faith in western nations to pick up the slack in the commodity markets. We've seen $150+ oil before.
We're a few days into the sanctions existing. It's going to take a while before the effects are really seen on the ground. And it's not just oil; wheat prices have gone up nearly 50% in the last 2 weeks and aluminum prices have increased by 25% in the last month.
Significant and prolonged sanctions can have unintended consequences. They're a good tool in the current situation if they can be used to deescalate, but there needs to be a clear (and realistic) path to reducing them or they're basically useless. There's a reason that the Versailles Treaty is widely recognized as a significant factor in why WWII happened. If the goal of the sanctions is regime change in Russia, then I don't see things working out.
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Why would they do that if Western powers (as you suggested) weren't going to remove sanctions as long as Putin remained in power?
We're a few days into the sanctions existing. It's going to take a while before the effects are really seen on the ground. And it's not just oil; wheat prices have gone up nearly 50% in the last 2 weeks and aluminum prices have increased by 25% in the last month.
Significant and prolonged sanctions can have unintended consequences. They're a good tool in the current situation if they can be used to deescalate, but there needs to be a clear (and realistic) path to reducing them or they're basically useless. There's a reason that the Versailles Treaty is widely recognized as a significant factor in why WWII happened. If the goal of the sanctions is regime change in Russia, then I don't see things working out.
What is the realistic path you suggest for the ending of sanctions?
I have full faith in western nations to pick up the slack in the commodity markets. We've seen $150+ oil before.
We have the resources and ability, but it will take time and require a serious about-turn in policy from leadership, because the West is its own biggest enemy right now in terms of energy security (We've all heard about Germany's many mistakes, but here in NA we're not that much better... I mean just last week the Biden administration put a pause on new oil and gas leases).
I know climate change is an important consideration, but the West's myopic focus on it is coming at a severe cost to energy security. Two decades ago Europe exported more gas than Russia does today. Do we think Russia would be emboldened to do what it did if Europe wasn't so beholden to them? https://twitter.com/user/status/1499386637066727424
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Reasons like this are why I think it's reasonable to ban Russia from World Juniors and International Cat Federation. It's not about penalizing individuals who have no say in the matters.
Many Russians believe that the Russian forces are liberating Ukraine from Nazis. Putin wanted his people to think that the Ukrainians welcomed the soldiers with open arms and that it's just a radical group of terrorists fighting against them. That the rest of the world had no issue, or in this case if it's true, that the USA is supporting them by way of sending "fighters."
The more "normal" everything is with the everyday Russian, the more they will believe the propaganda. But have the West show support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, the harder it is to hide. The more the individual Russian will have to question why. Why aren't we invited to World Juniors? Why did a bunch of western players leave the KHL during playoffs? Why won't they show the premiere league? Why the #### did the ICT not accept my application for Ms. Sparkles Esquire?
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Reasons like this are why I think it's reasonable to ban Russia from World Juniors and International Cat Federation. It's not about penalizing individuals who have no say in the matters.
Many Russians believe that the Russian forces are liberating Ukraine from Nazis. Putin wanted his people to think that the Ukrainians welcomed the soldiers with open arms and that it's just a radical group of terrorists fighting against them. That the rest of the world had no issue, or in this case if it's true, that the USA is supporting them by way of sending "fighters."
The more "normal" everything is with the everyday Russian, the more they will believe the propaganda. But have the West show support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, the harder it is to hide. The more the individual Russian will have to question why. Why aren't we invited to World Juniors? Why did a bunch of western players leave the KHL during playoffs? Why won't they show the premiere league? Why the #### did the ICT not accept my application for Ms. Sparkles Esquire?
let's take a moment to enjoy this dog.
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Corporal Jean-Marc H. BECHARD, 6 Aug 1993
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