I can make some educated guesses, based on both actions and rhetoric, and what simply makes sense. There's really no point in even trying to annex the Ukraine, you'll just get insurgents and spend a bunch of lives and money trying to hold onto it. A puppet regime achieves more or less all of the same benefits.
Again, speculation. I'm sure that operation was at least half a year in the planning if it didn't take years to plan. It has main objectives and side objectives, most of which we will never be aware of. I'm just saying that there are so many moving parts that it's extremely difficult to dumb down to a sentence or even a couple of paragraphs.
Also, you also speculate (make educated guesses) based on a logical point of view, whereas the whole invasion of Ukraine seems illogical in terms of the cost/benefit analysis. Again your scenario is one of the scenarios that is plausible, but frankly there's no way of knowing what the true intention is and benefits are, we simply don't have enough information or know how to be able to judge it.
Yep, there are no moral victories when dealing with an aggressor on your own soil. History has shown that people like Putin won't stop until they suffer losses and sometimes that means fighting fire with fire.
Putin doesn't care about losses, or what happens to his troops. There is no damage you can do with that tank that will matter in the long run. He does care if his own military's use of those weapons results in calls to have him brought before the Hague, new calls for increased direct intervention by western powers to stop actions perceived as atrocities and yet further increases to the sanctions crippling his country's economy and stirring domestic unrest.
Use the thing, you might kill a few Russian soldiers. Make a big show of it being inhuman and that you would never use it, and they'll either think twice or pay a much larger price than those dead soldiers that they don't care about anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
Again, speculation. I'm sure that operation was at least half a year in the planning if it didn't take years to plan. It has main objectives and side objectives, most of which we will never be aware of.
Sure, sure, we can't possibly know anything, why even bother speculating about Putin's motives or what Russia might do? Who can speak with certainty about how this will go, not anyone here, that's for sure. Why are we even all paying attention to this, right? It's all totally unknowable. Thanks for that, Vitaly.
Quote:
“The mission seems to be to confuse, to muddy the waters,” said Peter Pomerantsev, a former Russian-television producer and author of “Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible,” a memoir that describes the Kremlin’s efforts to manipulate the news. The ultimate aim, he said, is to foster an environment in which “people begin giving up on the facts.”
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Last edited by CorsiHockeyLeague; 03-01-2022 at 11:42 AM.
My question is, how has Russia bungled supply chain logistics on an operation they've allegedly been planning for months or years? Is their command structure that inept?
And even if you've lied to your troops that this was a military training exercise you'd think they iron out these kinks in the planning stages.
It all comes off as incredibly short sighted.
__________________ "Everybody's so desperate to look smart that nobody is having fun anymore" -Jackie Redmond
Yep, there are no moral victories when dealing with an aggressor on your own soil. History has shown that people like Putin won't stop until they suffer losses and sometimes that means fighting fire with fire.
Honestly, I think this would have the opposite effect. It would unite the Russian people under Putin the same way it united the Ukrainian people just now. Any attack would be used as an "I told you so, Ukraine is dangerous", or a show that Ukraine is the one targeting civilian populations. Those news will most likely be spun in a way to benefit Putin.
Hell most of the Russian news are already us against the world. They just make it seem as though the west planned it all along. I wish there was an easy deterrent for Putin, but I don't see one. The only deterrent I could see would be one like the one during the Cuban missile crisis, where you threaten mutual annihilation if Russia doesn't retreat from Ukraine.
My question is, how has Russia bungled supply chain logistics on an operation they've allegedly been planning for months or years? Is their command structure that inept?
And even if you've lied to your troops that this was a military training exercise you'd think they iron out these kinks in the planning stages.
It all comes off as incredibly short sighted.
It all makes perfect sense if you assume that it was exactly that - short-sighted. If you think, "this will all be over in a few days, and the fastest way to victory is to forget about supply chain in favour of blitzkrieg; we'll refuel when we have control of the capital in 24-48 hours, and the troops being thrust into combat won't even have time to second-guess until it's already all over", then it's all completely rational. It's the fundamental strategy itself that was foolish, the overconfidence that they wouldn't meet this type of opposition.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Sure, sure, we can't possibly know anything, why even bother speculating about Putin's motives or what Russia might do? Who can speak with certainty about how this will go, not anyone here, that's for sure. Why are we even all paying attention to this, right? It's all totally unknowable. Thanks for that, Vitaly.
Exactly speculating about motives doesn't help anyone. It's a waste of energy right now.
Paying attention to the situation is valid though, so don't widen the posts here. We(at least I am) are paying to the situation for two reasons: 1) in the hope it can be resolved as soon as possible. 2) To prevent it from happening again in the future.
You're welcome, not sure for what though. EDIT: I just wanted to add, that if you're trying to suggest I'm a Russian agent or something stupid like that, you're barking on the wrong tree. As I said numerous times, I have both friends and family in Ukraine right now, for whom I'm worried sick. If you don't believe me I can PM you some of their make-shift shelters and so on. Pictures you won't find online. That probably won't prove anything to you though, because I disagree with you presenting speculation as facts.
It all makes perfect sense if you assume that it was exactly that - short-sighted. If you think, "this will all be over in a few days, and the fastest way to victory is to forget about supply chain in favour of blitzkrieg; we'll refuel when we have control of the capital in 24-48 hours, and the troops being thrust into combat won't even have time to second-guess until it's already all over", then it's all completely rational. It's the fundamental strategy itself that was foolish, the overconfidence that they wouldn't meet this type of opposition.
Well that's on them for not having contingencies in place. And why the hell if you were committing to a quick strike wouldn't you amass a much larger force to push and obtain tactical superiority instead of what .....using less than 1/3rd of your force?.
None of it adds up to me and I'm a pleb.
I get it, more hardware = more fuel and manpower but the resistance would be over run and less loss of momentum.
__________________ "Everybody's so desperate to look smart that nobody is having fun anymore" -Jackie Redmond
Honestly, I think this would have the opposite effect. It would unite the Russian people under Putin the same way it united the Ukrainian people just now. Any attack would be used as an "I told you so, Ukraine is dangerous", or a show that Ukraine is the one targeting civilian populations. Those news will most likely be spun in a way to benefit Putin.
Hell most of the Russian news are already us against the world. They just make it seem as though the west planned it all along. I wish there was an easy deterrent for Putin, but I don't see one. The only deterrent I could see would be one like the one during the Cuban missile crisis, where you threaten mutual annihilation if Russia doesn't retreat from Ukraine.
Akin to the Chinese, and North Koreans, you infer Russian muzhiks STILL, just blindly, & perpetually ingest what their government broadcasts. As unrealistic as it must be.
Akin to the Chinese, and North Koreans, you infer Russian muzhiks STILL, just blindly, & perpetually ingest what their government broadcasts. As unrealistic as it must be.
Bloody tragic.
When we hear something over and over again from multiple sources, unfortunately, we start believing it. Especially when it's wrapped inside separate arguments that sound logical by themselves.
I know from personal experience that it's rather useless trying to convince someone on the other side(russia). Both sides are just saying that you are brain washed by your own media. It's a whole lot of wasted energy, and nerves.
Comparing North Korea's level of restriction on access to information by its citizens to Russia's isn't even apples to oranges, it's apples to... hamsters? Something that isn't a fruit. They're not even close to the same thing. The government has control over the news networks but it's not like you can't pull up western news in Yekaterinburg if you want to. Seems like a closer analogy would be like if during the Trump years, the only news channels on TV were various versions of Fox News and OANN.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
It all makes perfect sense if you assume that it was exactly that - short-sighted. If you think, "this will all be over in a few days, and the fastest way to victory is to forget about supply chain in favour of blitzkrieg; we'll refuel when we have control of the capital in 24-48 hours, and the troops being thrust into combat won't even have time to second-guess until it's already all over", then it's all completely rational. It's the fundamental strategy itself that was foolish, the overconfidence that they wouldn't meet this type of opposition.
Yeah, that's what it looks like to me too. Pretty amazing how bang-on US Intelligence was and continues to be. Continually forewarning of Russia's intentions prepared both a reluctant Ukraine and the wider world in spite of widespread skepticism everywhere that Russia would actually perform a full-on invasion. They sounded like Chicken Little, until everything happened exactly that way.
Thank God (or whatever you personally use as a substitute to address our relative powerlessness).
A nice -35c cold snap right about now would sure throw a wrench in things for the Russians.
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The government has control over the news networks but it's not like you can't pull up western news in Yekaterinburg if you want to.
People think that the internet is always free and available, with no controls or limits on how you can access it. The government in your country has a lot of say in how you get access to that stream of consciousness, and just how filtered it is. There are only so many ingress and egress points into the country, so managing those can be very easy. If the Chinese or North Koreans can do it, any nation on the planet can do it. Only our own ignorance prevents us from understanding this.
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Seems like a closer analogy would be like if during the Trump years, the only news channels on TV were various versions of Fox News and OANN.
This is exactly the problem. The access to information is a bubble where there are different "media" sources, but the same information is just rebroadcast through different talking heads. It gives the impression of secondary sources, but the primary source remains the same - Putin's desired message.
In case anyone was interested in reading Zelenskyy's speech to the EU.
Spoiler!
Quote:
Originally Posted by President Zelenskyy
This morning was a very tragic one for us. Two cruise missiles hit Kharkiv, the city, which is located to the borders of the Russian federation.
There were always many Russians there and they were always friend, there were warm relations there. More than 20 universities are there. It's the city that has the largest number of universities in our country.
The youth is bright, smart there. The people who gathered there all the time and was gathering there all the time for celebrating all celebrations in the largest square in our country - the Freedom Square. This is the largest square in Europe and that's true.
This is called the Freedom Square. Can you imagine, this morning, two cruise missiles hit this Freedom Square. Dozens killed. This is the price of freedom.
We're fighting just for our land and for our freedom.
Despite the fact that all the cities of our country are now blocked nobody is going to enter and intervene with our freedom and believe you me, every square from today, no matter what it's called, is going to be called Freedom Square, in every city of our country.
Nobody's going to break us, we're strong, we're Ukrainians.
We want our children to live. It seems to me that this is fair. Yesterday, 16 children died. And again, President Putin will say ‘this is an operation, and we are beating the military infrastructure.’ Where are our children? What military factories do they work at? ON which rockets? Maybe they ride in tanks? You killed 16 children!
We are fighting for our rights – freedom and life – and now we are fighting for survival. And this is our main motivation. But we are also fighting to be equal members of Europe. The EU will be much stronger with us. Without you, Ukraine will be alone.
Do prove that you are with us. Do prove that you will not let us go. Do prove that you are indeed Europeans, and then life will win over death and light will win over darkness. Glory to Ukraine.
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Since I haven’t seen anyone else admit it… when I first saw they were fighting off tanks with “javelins” I was REALLY confused. I mean, I can see that Ukrainians are tough, but the images I imagined were too far fetched.
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