Russia invades Ukraine

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Russia may be a dictatorship but Putin still worries about his popularity, there are ways Russians can encourage him to back off and so save themselves the pain

True. But longer term thinking is needed here.


1) What's the goal here? If it's to turn the populace against Putin, it'll take a lot of suffering first.

2) After the goal is achieved, what then? If you don't assist heavily in the new Russia, Putin II comes in as that's how we got here last time.


Tens of millions of middle class citizens are losing everything here and there'll be work to be done to fix it

[CASe333]

Considering there are many stories from different sources about young Russian conscripts asking Ukraine villagers for food and directions or the story about the tank drivers asking Ukraine police for gas I would assume Russian military is explicitly telling soldiers they are liberating the Ukraine and will be welcomed by the people.

I've never been in the military but assume none of these soldiers have cell phones so only live in the bubble of communication provided. Must be quite the shock that you are hated, aren't liberating anyone and everyone just wants you to go home or die. Kind of similar to the freedumb protesters that have chose to cut themselves off from reality that are still protesting on weekends in various cities. I think a campaign to offer $$ and citizenship for Russian military defectors might be extremely effective if you can get the message to them that they are being lied to.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

True. But longer term thinking is needed here.


1) What's the goal here? If it's to turn the populace against Putin, it'll take a lot of suffering first.

2) After the goal is achieved, what then? If you don't assist heavily in the new Russia, Putin II comes in as that's how we got here last time.


Tens of millions of middle class citizens are losing everything here and there'll be work to be done to fix it

What's the alternative would be my question?

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

True. But longer term thinking is needed here.


1) What's the goal here? If it's to turn the populace against Putin, it'll take a lot of suffering first.

2) After the goal is achieved, what then? If you don't assist heavily in the new Russia, Putin II comes in as that's how we got here last time.


Tens of millions of middle class citizens are losing everything here and there'll be work to be done to fix it

From a western prospective, I think the ideal thing would be to split Russia up into 4 to 5 different countries, so they lose such a dominant population and resource position over the rest of Europe.

The two big problems with this, is in the 20th century we have already seen many problem with large alliances drawing other countries borders. And the reason this wasn't attempted at the end of the USSR, is we wanted something strong and stable to be in control of all of those nukes. Not really certain what the solution is, but Putin would be much weaker as the lead of a Moscow or St Petersburg city-state or the small republic of Volga.... But I don't know what you do about the first two problems to make this a palatable goal for western societies, so best case Russia pulls back from all Ukrainian territories and overthrows Putin, so we can wait another 30 years for something like this to boil over again.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

True. But longer term thinking is needed here.


1) What's the goal here? If it's to turn the populace against Putin, it'll take a lot of suffering first.

2) After the goal is achieved, what then? If you don't assist heavily in the new Russia, Putin II comes in as that's how we got here last time.


Tens of millions of middle class citizens are losing everything here and there'll be work to be done to fix it

To be honest best case scenario for us and everyone else is Putin realises he's effed up badly, feels the rise of opposition at home and the united front abroad, sues for peace, and withdraws the troops, the west/Ukraine gives him some form of symbolic prize, a vote in the breakaway provinces under UN auspices or something so he can claim victory at home, the Ukraine says it isnt going to join NATO but makes no formal promise, pretty much back to the status quo except Putin and Russia's power is utterly broken, he becomes a wounded and weakened leader who will keep his head down and his mouth shut for his few remaining years in the Kremlin while China also learns that the west can and will pull together and so it backs them down a tad as well for a while.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

To be honest best case scenario for us and everyone else is Putin realises he's effed up badly, feels the rise of opposition at home and the united front abroad, sues for peace, and withdraws the troops, the west/Ukraine gives him some form of symbolic prize, a vote in the breakaway provinces under UN auspices or something so he can claim victory at home, the Ukraine says it isnt going to join NATO but makes no formal promise, pretty much back to the status quo except Putin and Russia's power is utterly broken, he becomes a wounded and weakened leader who will keep his head down and his mouth shut for his few remaining years in the Kremlin while China also learns that the west can and will pull together and so it backs them down a tad as well for a while.

While that would be best for the west and our stability, It's not realistic.

1) Ukraine won't accept a compromise at this point. They're digging in.

2) The status quo was always heading here so long as Putin is in power as he sees Russian control of Ukraine as his only hope against NATO taking over Russia. He has spent this much to get here I don't see him going backwards even if between a rock and a hard place. He'd just invade again but try to be more ready

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Gundo

Has anyone else been as fascinated with the technological aspect of the war against Russian propaganda and asserts as I have been ? The things the like of hacking groups such as Anonymous have been able to a accomplish is amazing to me this far.

I think some of hacking groups have overstated their results.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

To be honest best case scenario for us and everyone else is Putin realises he's effed up badly, feels the rise of opposition at home and the united front abroad, sues for peace, and withdraws the troops, the west/Ukraine gives him some form of symbolic prize, a vote in the breakaway provinces under UN auspices or something so he can claim victory at home, the Ukraine says it isnt going to join NATO but makes no formal promise, pretty much back to the status quo except Putin and Russia's power is utterly broken, he becomes a wounded and weakened leader who will keep his head down and his mouth shut for his few remaining years in the Kremlin while China also learns that the west can and will pull together and so it backs them down a tad as well for a while.

What reason is there to believe Putin would put his tail between his legs before firing off all his nukes, hoping some of them still work and seeing what happens? The more he fails and the more he loses, his only power is his nukes, and it seems he has the power to try to send them or settle for going out to pasture. Is there any reason to think he doesn't pick the nuclear option?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If the 'west' had basically allowed Russia free reign but done nothing and Russia had rolled over the Ukraine with the speed of the US taking out Iraq I would agree, but the west has completely pulled together, dropped an economic nuke on Russia regardless of the consequences to its own economy as well post Communist era tanks and aircraft have proved to be rubbish against the most minimal of western anti tank and anti aircraft kit

China now has to factor in a massive economic fall out to any plans for Taiwan and the real possibility that their forces are as ill equipped and inept as the Russians in reality, we have no idea if Russia's apparent utter lack of command and control is because it has been taken out by cyber attacks from the west, while Russia and China dont share kit anymore but they share a lot of technology derived from older soviet gear, for the Chinese whether Russia prevails or not the lesson is it's too soon to make a play for Taiwan and also that Russia is not powerful enough to waste political capital on.

What if China didn't calculate this right. What if they were hoping that the Western Powers jumped completely to the defense of Ukraine and ignored Putin's nuclear threat. The American's rush their rapid response forces to the Ukraine. The American's are forced to form fleets to escort merchants over out of fear of Russian subs and naval aviation.


Like I said before the American military is still incredibly formidable but not near to what it was at the height of the Cold War, and certainly can't fight a war on two fronts.



so the Chinese sit and wait for America to get ensnared with troops and ships. then they make their move, again not on Taiwan but on the Spratleys.



though this fun/not fun theory does fail on the fact that the American Pacific fleet is still huge, so unless they move ships over to the Atlantic fleet it falls apart.



Also in terms of just pure killing power the Chinese would have to deal with the US 7th fleet.

[Southside]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

What reason is there to believe Putin would put his tail between his legs before firing off all his nukes, hoping some of them still work and seeing what happens? The more he fails and the more he loses, his only power is his nukes, and it seems he has the power to try to send them or settle for going out to pasture. Is there any reason to think he doesn't pick the nuclear option?

I still think someone feeds him the poison porkchop or puts a bullet in him before he gets that chance.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

While that would be best for the west and our stability, It's not realistic.

1) Ukraine won't accept a compromise at this point. They're digging in.

2) The status quo was always heading here so long as Putin is in power as he sees Russian control of Ukraine as his only hope against NATO taking over Russia. He has spent this much to get here I don't see him going backwards even if between a rock and a hard place. He'd just invade again but try to be more ready

I didnt say I thought it would happen, realistically if the Ukranians win or at least dont lose and inflict high casualties on the Russian Army there is likely a Russian Military coup that may spark some form of civil war in Russia as the old communist supporters fight it out with the more pro western elements, if we want to go real blue sky thinking China see's a chance to bolster its resources and takes Siberia all the while telling the west 'dont worry we're on your side!!"

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

The Russians could probably speed it up by catapulting plague rats over the walls.

The one thing that makes me believe that Putin won't fire his nukes, is that he hasn't used any of the many lethal chemical weapons at his disposal once he ran into serious opposition from the Ukraines, and I doubt that the Ukrainian military is well suited to fight in a chemical environment.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

What's the alternative would be my question?

Not so much an alternative, but I do think there should be far more going on diplomatically, with countries trying to mediate talks. Maybe they'd be totally fruitless, but a peaceful settlement is unlikely without that. And there should also be a clear path that allows Putin/Russia to extricate themselves from this while saving face; not the fairest outcome given the ugliness of their aggression, but when you're dealing with a (potentially desperate) despot with nuclear weapons, the results aren't always fair. If the west just keeps piling on sanctions and tries to inflict maximum pain on Russia without providing a palatable off ramp, it might be counterproductive if the goal is peace and stability.

Who knows though, maybe there's tons of back channel talks going on that cover everything above.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

What reason is there to believe Putin would put his tail between his legs before firing off all his nukes, hoping some of them still work and seeing what happens? The more he fails and the more he loses, his only power is his nukes, and it seems he has the power to try to send them or settle for going out to pasture. Is there any reason to think he doesn't pick the nuclear option?

You have to assume he's or his generals, etc are not willing to wipe out the human population because he loses a war.

If you believe he's going to use his nukes if you don't let him roll over Ukraine then perhaps you let him do that, but what prevents him just doing to same thing to Poland or whoever else. At that point it basically becomes a world of everyone builds nukes or they are obliterated.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Not so much an alternative, but I do think there should be far more going on diplomatically, with countries trying to mediate talks. Maybe they'd be totally fruitless, but a peaceful settlement is unlikely without that. And there should also be a clear path that allows Putin/Russia to extricate themselves from this while saving face; not the fairest outcome given the ugliness of their aggression, but when you're dealing with a (potentially desperate) despot with nuclear weapons, the results aren't always fair. If the west just keeps piling on sanctions and tries to inflict maximum pain on Russia without providing a palatable off ramp, it might be counterproductive if the goal is peace and stability.

Who knows though, maybe there's tons of back channel talks going on that cover everything above.

I've seen articles about the US talking with China pre invasion attempting what you are saying. Obviously didn't work but Im not sure you end this without China telling to Russia to stop.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

What reason is there to believe Putin would put his tail between his legs before firing off all his nukes, hoping some of them still work and seeing what happens? The more he fails and the more he loses, his only power is his nukes, and it seems he has the power to try to send them or settle for going out to pasture. Is there any reason to think he doesn't pick the nuclear option?

Honestly, if he's a rational actor, using them weakens his position and makes him more vulnerable. It's the threat of nuclear attack that has the power. What leverage does a criminal have if they shoot their hostage?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Wormius

I think some of hacking groups have overstated their results.

Any sort of digging into anonymous shows their “results” are basically nothing. The serious cyber crime/hacking/infiltrations has next to nothing to do with anonymous.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

What if China didn't calculate this right. What if they were hoping that the Western Powers jumped completely to the defense of Ukraine and ignored Putin's nuclear threat. The American's rush their rapid response forces to the Ukraine. The American's are forced to form fleets to escort merchants over out of fear of Russian subs and naval aviation.


Like I said before the American military is still incredibly formidable but not near to what it was at the height of the Cold War, and certainly can't fight a war on two fronts.



so the Chinese sit and wait for America to get ensnared with troops and ships. then they make their move, again not on Taiwan but on the Spratleys.



though this fun/not fun theory does fail on the fact that the American Pacific fleet is still huge, so unless they move ships over to the Atlantic fleet it falls apart.



Also in terms of just pure killing power the Chinese would have to deal with the US 7th fleet.

Always fun to play the what if game.

The scenario I've been pondering, is the FSB have tired of the direction Putin is taking the country, and they encouraged him to give Ukraine a punt. If it works out great...if not, they get to pick who the next stooge is.

Putin has a Henry the VIII problem, as he's got no male heir. There's no clear #2 in Russia, because that's inviting a coup. He fails in Ukraine and he's on an island all by himself. It'll start by the military refusing orders, and it ends with Putin in exile (or more likely dead). After a disorganized revolution the new leader of Russia will seek a restart with the West. In the shambles of Putin's Russia, Lukashenko is quartered by his own people and the first democratic elections are held in Belarus.

In October Xi is quietly exited at the National Committee due to "age restrictions", with the new leader promising an open dialogue with the west, and historic resolutions to fight climate change (and air quality at home).

Zelenskyy wins Time person of the year.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Honestly, if he's a rational actor, using them weakens his position and makes him more vulnerable. It's the threat of nuclear attack that has the power. What leverage does a criminal have if they shoot their hostage?

Once nuclear bombs are in the air, none of that matters any more.

We're either afraid of his nukes or we're not. Crippling economic sanctions are a much deeper cut to him than a fleet of F16s supporting Ukraine. Why do we assume the latter is more likely to make nuclear war a realty? Sending in American fighter jets is probably a better justification for him firing nuclear missiles, but once their set off, who the hell cares about justification?

If we all think he's not willing to use them, then they have no power.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Once nuclear bombs are in the air, none of that matters any more.

We're either afraid of his nukes or we're not. Crippling economic sanctions are a much deeper cut to him than a fleet of F16s supporting Ukraine. Why do we assume the latter is more likely to make nuclear war a realty? Sending in American fighter jets is probably a better justification for him firing nuclear missiles, but once their set off, who the hell cares about justification?

If we all think he's not willing to use them, then they have no power.

Again, it depends on if he's a rational actor. If he's rational, there's literally nothing to gain by using them. The threat of them is the weapon.

If he's not rational, welp, we're screwed