Has anyone else been as fascinated with the technological aspect of the war against Russian propaganda and asserts as I have been ? The things the like of hacking groups such as Anonymous have been able to a accomplish is amazing to me this far.
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If Poland is used as a staging area for Ukrainian pilots, Russia will almost certainly see that as a clear act of war by Poland and NATO. Things would escalate very quickly after that.
That said Belarus was used as a staging area for Russia. Now apparently they will be sending troops too.
Real talk: is Ukraine actually winning this war, or is that just wishful thinking and we're only seeing social media posts and videos that show what we want to see? I think we can definitively say that the Russian offensive is meeting stronger resistance than anticipated and the invasion forces are not capturing their objectives as quickly as they planned, but that was also true for the Allies on D-Day (none of the five beaches achieved their D+0 objectives). It doesn't necessarily mean the defenders are repelling the invasion, they're just slowing it down.
So is there a credible source somewhere that has an accurate picture of what is really happening on the ground? Everything I'm reading paints this as a military disaster for Russia, but is that really true?
Find some credible sources of news about what’s happening on the ground. The BBC, the Economist, interviews with military analysts.
This article argues things are not going well for Russia, with their inability to establish air dominance particularly damning.
But in this interview a former Joint Forces commander says Russia has lots of heft to throw into the struggle, and their army will still likely occupy large portions of the Ukraine, and isolate and besiege the major cities in the east, including Kiev.
As you say, social media depictions of what’s happening in Ukraine give us a distorted picture. Memes and videos go viral because they spark our emotions, not because they capture reality.
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If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
IF the Russians are really losing troops and equipment at the pace reported and their support lines are as weak as some reports, and the morale is as low as reported, things could genuinely be extremely bleak for the Russian side.
I mean, if those 1000+ men lost per day numbers are close to the reality, no army can sustain that for any length of time.
Things that are least SOMEWHAT true:
- poor morale, units are reported to be essentially hiding from the war
- troops are scattered over a large area and moving rapidly in smaller units to be faster
- air support is unreliable
- units are running around seeming somewhat lost and seem to have only vague idea of what they're supposed to be doing
- they are fighting a motivated enemy with superior air and satellite reconnaissance (provided by the US) that knows the ground much better.
Much less reliable info, but plausible:
- support lines are stretched and troops entered the country with very little food or fuel
That's a lot of IF's, but in any case, it's not really that Ukraine is outperforming expectations, it's that the Russians seem to be massively underperforming.
IF that's really an accurate picture of the Russian troops in Ukraine, it's basically a perfect scenario for units getting isolated and more or less wiped out without the support a superior force should be enjoying at all times. A situation like that could really mean extremely lopsided military casualties, which combined with poor morale could trigger mass surrenders or revolts within the Russian troops.
So I would say a Russian loss is actually on the table, although it would take the co-operation of unmotivated Russian troops.
Of course we have no idea what shape the Ukrainian army is in currently. Neither side has an incentive to talk about the losses Ukrainians are taking, since the Russians are still claiming to their own public that "this is just a little skirmish that will quickly be over".
If, if, if, obviously.
Naturally we're not hearing much about Ukrainian losses, but what we're seeing on the Russian side is in part just how devastating modern combat is. Since Russia still has arguably the upper hand in terms of equipment, technology, and air superiority (though not supremacy) I imagine the Ukrainian losses are also horrific even though war typically favours the defenders and the Russian forces clearly have issues. It could be a high speed battle of attrition which is why the EU and NATO are rushing in new arms.
Also, there are maps showing pending encirclement of tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops in the southeast - that could tip the scales in a big way. I'm afraid this is not the beginning of the end of the Russian offensive but just the end of the beginning.
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But in this interview a former Joint Forces commander says Russia has lots of heft to throw into the struggle, and their army will still likely occupy large portions of the Ukraine, and isolate and besiege the major cities in the east, including Kiev.
As you say, social media depictions of what’s happening in Ukraine give us a distorted picture. Memes and videos go viral because they spark our emotions, not because they capture reality.
Pretty much every credible analyst I've seen says Ukraine has been incredible so far, but don't expect things to get any better than it is right now and likely to get very bleak soon with Russia having so much more to throw at it
It's a city of 3 million people, not a medieval castle. Waiting to starve them out doesn't seem feasible. Especially when every day costs 20 billion dollars.
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I don't have the knowledge to say who's winning or losing but I do think if you a time machine and told Russia what was going to happen in the past few days, they would be quite unlikely to go forward with the invasion. Not necessarily the fighting itself, just the overall reaction from NATO and the rest of the world. When you've got Switzerland talking about freezing your money... Its really not going your way.
It's a city of 3 million people, not a medieval castle. Waiting to starve them out doesn't seem feasible. Especially when every day costs 20 billion dollars.
That cost estimate I think is very questionable. That's several times Russia's GDP/day, even for Nazi Germany the percentage of GDP dedicated to fighting and armaments was only about 60%. The 2003 Iraq War was something like $2B/day for a larger force during the battle phase.
Just watching CNN a very large convoy of troops and tanks and artillery is heading towards Kyiv. The Russians are re-enforcing.
With the Russian's surrounding the city, they can either wait and starve the civillians out, or simply start methodically blasting the city.
Does that plan really work if you want to install a puppet government? That sounds more like an idea if you just want to defeat the country and leave them to deal with the consequences.
It's a city of 3 million people, not a medieval castle. Waiting to starve them out doesn't seem feasible. Especially when every day costs 20 billion dollars.
Sarajevo says hi.
Not sure about the daily cost though. $20B seems high but I'm sure it's not cheap.
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Economically Russia is on a very short time scale, they have to win this in a hurry, they may be less economically tied to the rest of the worlds economy but they are still, like every modern economy utterly reliant on imports, and without the ability to pay for anything even China is going to shut them off.
China is not Putin's ally, they may have some mutual objectives but China is still more concerned about the west than Russia, if Russia is struggling they will cut them loose and pretend to be against this all along, their abstention at the UN was a clear indication they are happy to leave Putin to his fate
Not sure about the daily cost though. $20B seems high but I'm sure it's not cheap.
I'm sure they're also accounting for latent economic losses due to sanctions, etc. and not just basic cost of lost men, materiel, wages, supplies, logistics etc.
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Economically Russia is on a very short time scale, they have to win this in a hurry, they may be less economically tied to the rest of the worlds economy but they are still, like every modern economy utterly reliant on imports, and without the ability to pay for anything even China is going to shut them off.
Even if (or when) Russia wins, I don't see the sanctions being dropped as long as they hold Ukraine.
The sanctions need to last until Putin is dragged off to The Hague in handcuffs.
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