Shocking to me that the Russians are just parked like that in the open.
Perhaps there's a lot of truth to the Ukrainian claims that they've killed thousands of Russian troops. If Ukraine has dozens of these drones flying around and hitting Russian troops/equipment, the damage is going to add up quickly.
Real talk: is Ukraine actually winning this war, or is that just wishful thinking and we're only seeing social media posts and videos that show what we want to see?
No, of course they're not winning. They're just outperforming expectations. A realistic view on Friday was that they wouldn't last the weekend. They're just trying to hold on, and every time they make it through the night is a victory, judged on that curve. If they'd lost in 24 hours, none of these sanctions or promises of support from other countries that are coming hourly would have happened in the way that they have. The longer they hold out, the more they make this hurt Russia, and the more they make it cost Russia.
But "winning", in the sense that they're going to somehow repel this invasion? Absolutely not. That's not even on the table.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to CorsiHockeyLeague For This Useful Post:
My wife is Russian and a Permanent Resident. She is in Russia right now with our daughter and trying to get out via Azerbaijan or Kazakstan. I wonder about potential backlash when she gets back when people find out she's originally from Russia.
If it fails, try Moscow-Singapore-Vancouver route. Singapore used to have 72 hours visa free transit. Eastern airspace seems to be less restricted than western. Don't take my word, double check everything.
The Following User Says Thank You to Pointman For This Useful Post:
They're not going to come to anything, given that Ukraine seems to be of the view that it won't give up an inch of territory. It seems like something Putin can do to give his propagandists the opportunity to say "well, we tried to offer them peace, but they rebuffed us, so we had no choice but to fire those missiles into those residential buildings".
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Okay, I will ask the question - What else could Putin be doing if he is showing his hand by invading Ukraine? Is this the main move or is this a distraction?
No, of course they're not winning. They're just outperforming expectations. A realistic view on Friday was that they wouldn't last the weekend. They're just trying to hold on, and every time they make it through the night is a victory, judged on that curve. If they'd lost in 24 hours, none of these sanctions or promises of support from other countries that are coming hourly would have happened in the way that they have. The longer they hold out, the more they make this hurt Russia, and the more they make it cost Russia.
But "winning", in the sense that they're going to somehow repel this invasion? Absolutely not. That's not even on the table.
Ukraine is winning in just about every sense of the word, this invasion has been a disaster.
Russian morale seems very low, here's a tank column surrendering to Ukrainian police and civilians pretty amazing footage:
I wouldn't say 'winning'. More like holding out. Which is absolutely a victory in and of itself but winning would mean pushing the Russians back, but that's not the case. Russia's still making gains, just not the ones they'd like
The Following User Says Thank You to btimbit For This Useful Post:
Real talk: is Ukraine actually winning this war, or is that just wishful thinking and we're only seeing social media posts and videos that show what we want to see?
realistically they can't win this, but at the same time, Russia isn't winning either. On the contrary, they are pretty much losing on every front ... this war is costing a lot of Russian lives, it cripples them financially, it ruins their economy, it trashes their global standing and it isolates them from most of the world. Putin is inflicting a ton of damage on his own country and its people, not just today but tomorrow and the day after.
Which is also what makes the situation unpredictable and dangerous. Putin can't get out of this without a "win", meaning he'll be convinced he'll at least have to take over Ukraine. Which means he'll probably ramp up the intensity and accept a lot more bloodshed, especially since Ukraine is putting up a hell of a fight and Russia has been unable to make the kind of progress they had anticipated.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to devo22 For This Useful Post:
The Ukrainians are perfectly content letting the Russians keep marching into the meat grinder. They'll push back for territorial gains when the Russians run out of willing troops.
The Rouble/USD exchange is currently about 200/1. For some context, when there was a huge crisis for Russia in 1998, the rates shot up from ~6 to ~24. The forex markets open later today, but that’s going to be a bloodbath for sure.
I don't know if 100-200k troops is enough to subdue 40M people. If you can't get out of your vehicles on foot are you really holding anything. Some of the videos from yesterday and today are further north and closer to Belarus than I would have expected at this point.
The Following User Says Thank You to burn_this_city For This Useful Post:
Really interested to hear what these talks are about. Do hope they're actual peace talks and not just Putin demanding a surrender
I believe these "peace talks" are posturing and have 0 chance of being fruitful. Russia asks for complete surrender from Ukraine and all sanctions lifted. Everyone else laughs and Russia goes back to their citizens saying the west wants war.
I believe these "peace talks" are posturing and have 0 chance of being fruitful. Russia asks for complete surrender from Ukraine and all sanctions lifted. Everyone else laughs and Russia goes back to their citizens saying the west wants war.
Pretty much. Putin gets to say "See? I tried" and escalate further
A couple of gnarly videos on the Ukrainian armed forces twitter. Whilst I’m very happy to see the Russian army getting their dues, it’s also sad to see videos of young kids who died for a crooked psychotic leader in a war of no real purpose. “It was ever thus” I suppose.
