Russia invades Ukraine

[FlameOn]

Elon Musk provides Starlink dishes to Ukrainian government in case critical internet infrastructure goes out

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497703466352926722

[flames_fan_down_under]

Was waiting for Musk to insert himself!

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Was waiting for Musk to insert himself!

So he shouldn’t have offered his help?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Was waiting for Musk to insert himself!

This is clearly just Musk maneuvering himself into position to pick up the pieces once Russia and Ukraine are done punching each other out.

Then ol' Elon rolls in and renames Ukraine 'Teslovia' and rules it from his Capitol City of 'Musko.'

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

So he shouldn’t have offered his help?

I’m fine with him offering help, I just have a hard time viewing anything he does as selfless or not self serving, I feel like he has some sort of hero savior complex, but ya good on him for giving some STARLINK terminals.

[dammage79]

This might throw putin into a rage, cutting him off from their money. He defintely hasn't given the "yeah let's sit down and talk about things" vibe the last couple of days. Threatening to use the ISS as a weapon? Yeeesh.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by holden

Could be huge IF true. Who knows...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497699493889949702

The funny thing about Russian war history is that almost every war they partake in ends with a revolution or at least a major reformation. Even the Afghanistan war was a major factor in the fall of the Soviet Union.

I hope this war completely tears them apart from the inside.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

True, but that's far from anything I would rely on. Again, these people were personally chosen by Putin for their loyalty, and didn't come from money necessarily. They're also survivalists to the extreme. They far more likely to take what they have and leave than dig in and risk punishment by Putin by going against him.

We are used to to Plutocrats in the West who are powerful due to their wealth and the politicians get their orders from them. It's quit the opposite with Oligarchs in a kleptocracy. Their only power is due to the proximity and fealty to Putin. They came from little and received much by bowing to him and constantly proving their loyalty over and over. If Putin is gone, so is their wealth. They lose everything if Putin falls

This is the point you're missing.

Yes, they were hand picked by Putin, are loyal to him, and owe their fortunes to him. They will continue to be loyal to him SO LONG AS HE MAINTAINS THE STAUS QUO.

But they aren't idiots. And they aren't going to just sit there and let him ruin everything they've built. The moment he goes over the deep end, and threatens their wealth and power, their surest means of survival is to remove him and replace him with someone else who can restore the status quo.

If you think they are going to stand around and let him destroy them, obliterate their wealth, and extinguish their power, I don't know what else to say to you - that is not how powerful human beings behave.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497709962780368897

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by dammage79

This might throw putin into a rage, cutting him off from their money. He doesn't hasn't given the "yeah let's sit down and talk about things" vibe the last couple of days. Threatening to use the ISS as a weapon? Yeeesh.

I don’t think he threatened to use the ISS as a weapon. A Russian official stated that they were the ones keeping it in orbit and said cutting them off would mean they would not be able to do that (and questioning who was going to do it).

It came off as less of a threat and more of a “this will be your problem to handle instead of ours now.”

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is the point you're missing.

Yes, they were hand picked by Putin, are loyal to him, and owe their fortunes to him. They will continue to be loyal to him SO LONG AS HE MAINTAINS THE STAUS QUO.

But they aren't idiots. And they aren't going to just sit there and let him ruin everything they've built. The moment he goes over the deep end, and threatens their wealth and power, their surest means of survival is to remove him and replace him with someone else who can restore the status quo.

If you think they are going to stand around and let him destroy them, obliterate their wealth, and extinguish their power, I don't know what else to say to you - that is not how powerful human beings behave.

Putin's survival, like Trump's, is based on the perception of power, any weakness and the dogs will tear them both apart, in Trumps case metaphorically, in Putins it will be actual dogs that eat him

[Enoch Root]

The Russian economy is open, and the ruble is convertible, both backed by the FX reserves. But these reserves are largely electronic book entries in the Russian Central Bank accounts with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and similar Western institutions and clearing houses. There are no physical bonds and certificates. In the language, Western government bonds and other securities and sovereign deposits with Western central and commercial banks are dematerialized and uncertificated.

For example, U.S. Treasuries owned by central banks of 200 countries are book entries on the computers of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, traded by its authorized dealers, with the sale proceeds transmitted electronically via Fedwire to correspondent banks.

I know that economic sanctions don't sound like much and don't appear very daunting, but this is a huge deal. This all but shuts Russia down economically.

He is counting on loyalty to back him up, but loyalty wains quickly when peoples' wealth evaporates.

From this vantage point, if sanctions hit, the $638 billion FX reserves shrink to their salvage value. Of the $638 billion FX reserves, only $12 billion are dollar and Euro-denominated cash in the vaults of the Russian Central Bank. The gold stored there, worth $139 billion, is hard to sell en masse, especially if the Central Bank falls under the Western sanctions. Another part of FX reserves, $84 billion in Renminbi-denominated instruments, is of little financial use in a crisis. Some $403 billion, almost two-thirds of the FX reserves, are securities and deposits denominated in U.S. dollars, Euro, British pounds and other Western currencies, representing electronic book entries in Western central and commercial banks. If sanctions are imposed on the Russian Central Bank, the $403 billion of its FX electronic holdings in the West could not be used. Russia will be left with little Western cash, unsaleable gold and Chinese bonds.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Putin's survival, like Trump's, is based on the perception of power, any weakness and the dogs will tear them both apart, in Trumps case metaphorically, in Putins it will be actual dogs that eat him

Out of thanks, but well stated.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Its almost hard to imagine how much of a miscalculation this has been by Putin (at least it seems that way in my uninformed opinion)

Let's hope he comes to his senses soon and tries to negotiate his way out of this.

I don't think Putin can survive a loss in Ukraine politically, and dictators rarely survive being overthrown, so this is very likely literally life or death for him. Previous dictators are too much of a liability for the next person/group to take power, and there's always plenty of people with personal grudges just waiting for their chance.

That's why I expect he will literally stop at nothing, unless Russians stop him.

I suspect that if he tries to use nukes, people around him will kill him out of self-preservation.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Putin's survival, like Trump's, is based on the perception of power, any weakness and the dogs will tear them both apart, in Trumps case metaphorically, in Putins it will be actual dogs that eat him

Yeah, I just don't know. Who knows how prepared Putin was prior to this invasion. A smart and ruthless dictator would have assessed the loyalty of those around him, and implemented measures to keep the oligarchs in check for when times got tough. Things like rounding up family members in "safe" places well guarded by FSB agents loyal to Putin....

But I don't know how thorough Putin is, nor does anyone else. However, he has remained the dictator of a very back-stabby place for quite a time now, so presumably he's pretty paranoid.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't think Putin can survive a loss in Ukraine politically, and dictators rarely survive being overthrown, so this is very likely literally life or death for him. Previous dictators are too much of a liability for the next person/group to take power, and there's always plenty of people with personal grudges just waiting for their chance.

That's why I expect he will literally stop at nothing, unless Russians stop him.

I suspect that if he tries to use nukes, people around him will kill him out of self-preservation.

This is what I think as well.

As PeteMoss said, Putin has made a huge miscalculation, and he has painted himself into a corner. I believe that he was worried about Ukraine joining NATO and he wanted to get them back under the fold before that happened. And he believed that his loyalists would support him.

But this was a mistake and now, if he fails or backs down, he is a lame duck. So he will be desperate and will stop at nothing, which will force his loyalists to respond.

The only way I see this ending is with Putin's death. Sooner or later.

Hopefully sooner.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

Yeah, I just don't know. Who knows how prepared Putin was prior to this invasion. A smart and ruthless dictator would have assessed the loyalty of those around him, and implemented measures to keep the oligarchs in check for when times got tough. Things like rounding up family members in "safe" places well guarded by FSB agents loyal to Putin....

But I don't know how thorough Putin is, nor does anyone else. However, he has remained the dictator of a very back-stabby place for quite a time now, so presumably he's pretty paranoid.

He is no doubt as paranoid as they come.

But if you keep playing the iron fist card (rounding up family members, for instance), the people you are trying to control eventually get pushed too far and have nothing to lose with respect to trying to end you.

[calumniate]

Lights out in kiev apparently.. incoming air raid?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is what I think as well.

As PeteMoss said, Putin has made a huge miscalculation, and he has painted himself into a corner. I believe that he was worried about Ukraine joining NATO and he wanted to get them back under the fold before that happened. And he believed that his loyalists would support him.

But this was a mistake and now, if he fails or backs down, he is a lame duck. So he will be desperate and will stop at nothing, which will force his loyalists to respond.

The only way I see this ending is with Putin's death. Sooner or later.

Hopefully sooner.

Another major problem might be....if Putin goes who is going to come in and replace him?

Every naturally assumes that 'Nobody could be as bad as Putin.'

But if the last few years has taught us anything...dont be so sure that the next thing coming wont be worse.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Locke

Another major problem might be....if Putin goes who is going to come in and replace him?

Every naturally assumes that 'Nobody could be as bad as Putin.'

But if the last few years has taught us anything...dont be so sure that the next thing coming wont be worse.

Absolutely.

But if you are worried about who the next guy will be, the best course of action is to get your guy in there.