Russia invades Ukraine

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by WCW Nitro

I don't get what the long-term plan is for Russia.Ok, you install a puppet government, then what? How long will that government be able to rule when it won't have the support of the majority of the country, the uprising is inevitable. People say Putin is this genius, but to me he was in a great situation before all this, trade deals with the world and personal wealth and an army that is strong enough that no country will invade it regardless of how close NATO gets.

Putin is madman, not a genius. Russia will gain nothing from this war. Arguably Putin himself will gain nothing from this war except for maybe some joy.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by WCW Nitro

I don't get what the long-term plan is for Russia.Ok, you install a puppet government, then what? How long will that government be able to rule when it won't have the support of the majority of the country, the uprising is inevitable. People say Putin is this genius, but to me he was in a great situation before all this, trade deals with the world and personal wealth and an army that is strong enough that no country will invade it regardless of how close NATO gets.

In the past, it was all about territorial expansion. Russians would invade and then begin to spread their nation via exporting Russian culture and physically moving their citizens into an area.

The problem with that now is that with open access to information via the internet, cultural assimilation is not possible. If anything, by destroying Ukrainian culture, locals would then fill the void with western culture. Many nation states barely exist as it is anymore, and boundaries between nations are getting less and less important.

Russia also has a rapidly shrinking population. There are no large amounts of population for them to export. You can't move Russian citizens into Ukraine without further stretching thin the population of Russians in Russia. Russia is already at point where they need massive immigration inward to keep things going. However, they've also taken an ethnic based approach to defining themselves as Russian, and new immigrants are basically not welcomed into the culture. Even minorites who've been there 1000+ years aren't welcome.

Maybe Putin genuinely believes this will all lead to some kind of resurgence. After this, Russian citizens will adopt a more traditional Russian way of life, start having more children, stop learning English, etc..?

For the meantime this does keep the EU/NATO out of Ukraine. However, as the population of Russia/Ukraine shrinks, it all starts to crumble from within.

[GordonBlue]

I have nothing of substance to add. just wanted to type how sickened I am about this.

I've already quit hoping the other nations will do something other than just stand by and wait for sanctions to have any sort of effect.

Seems Kiev is going to fall soon. Russians are going to get away with this. I just know it.

[PeteMoss]

Financial Times says EU is preparing freeze assets of Putin (and Lavrov)
https://www.ft.com/content/5e7282fc-...a-8abb52228472

Non-paywalled article : https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...lavrov-assets/

[CliffFletcher]

This article in the Economist offers an insight into the mindset of Putin’s inner circle. Paywalled, but I think you can access one free article a month,

Alexander Gabuev writes from Moscow on why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

… Washington sees unfinished business in Russia’s persistence and success, according to Mr Putin’s entourage. As America’s power wanes, its methods are becoming more aggressive. This is why the West cannot be trusted. The best way to ensure the safety of Russia’s existing political regime and to advance its national interests is to keep America off balance.

Seen this way, Ukraine is the central battleground of the struggle. The stakes could not be higher. Should Moscow allow that country to be fully absorbed into a western sphere of influence, Russia’s endurance as a great power will itself be under threat. On a personal level, the world view of the hard men is an odd amalgam of Soviet nostalgia, great-power chauvinism and the trappings of the Russian Orthodox faith. The fact that the new elite in Kyiv glorifies the Ukrainian nationalists of the 20th century and thumb their noses at Moscow is a huge personal affront…

On the effectiveness of sanctions:

Why then are the people around Putin not scared about possible fallout from a new round of far-reaching economic sanctions? In their eyes, the sanctions that the West imposed to punish Russia for the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas were intended largely to check Russia’s rise. America and its allies would have found a way to introduce them one way or another, they were just looking for an excuse. Since 2014 such views have solidified. Messrs Patrushev, Bortnikov and Naryshkin all find themselves on the US Treasury’s blacklist already, along with many other members of Mr Putin’s inner circle. There is no way back for them to the West’s creature comforts. They are destined to end their lives in Fortress Russia, with their assets and their relatives alongside them.

As for sanctions by sector, including those that President Joe Biden’s team plans to impose should Russia invade Ukraine, these may end up largely strengthening the hard men’s grip on the national economy. Import substitution efforts have generated large flows of budget funds that are controlled by the coterie and their proxies, including through Rostec. The massive state conglomerate is run by a friend of Mr Putin’s from his KGB days in East Germany, Sergey Chemezov. In a similar vein, a ban on food imports from countries that have sanctioned Russia has led to spectacular growth in Russian agribusiness. The sector is overseen by Mr Patrushev’s elder son Dmitry, who is Mr Putin’s agriculture minister.

Similarly much-touted financial sanctions have led to a bigger role for state-owned banks which, unsurprisingly enough, are also filled with KGB veterans. If anything, further sanctions wouldn’t just fail to hurt Mr Putin’s war cabinet, they would secure its members' place as the top beneficiaries of Russia’s deepening economic autarky. The same logic is true of domestic politics: as the country descends into a near-permanent state of siege, the security services will be the most important pillar of the regime. That further cements the hard men’s grip on the country…

https://www.economist.com/by-invitat...urage-want-war

Tldr: Previous sanctions spurred the regime to develop domestic sectors to make Russia more self-reliant. Putin’s cronies run those sectors, so they will actually benefit from another round of sanctions.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I have nothing of substance to add. just wanted to type how sickened I am about this.

I've already quit hoping the other nations will do something other than just stand by and wait for sanctions to have any sort of effect.

Seems Kiev is going to fall soon. Russians are going to get away with this. I just know it.

Honestly there was never any doubt, try as the Ukrainians may. Putin is just to brutal and is showing it in the open for most of the Western world to see after many ignored it for years.

[indes]

This is all just so tragic. I have a hard time wrapping my head around this. I don't have much to add either but is there another shoe to drop here? I don't see what Russia is going to gain from this in the long term.

He gets a puppet government installed and then what? He'll need a huge military presence to try and keep the people in line and even that will only last so long. Imo even if Putin accomplishes his goal it will be short lived and overthrown in less than a decade.

Just a senseless, tragic, evil act.

My heart goes out to the Ukrainians and I hope they manage to stay strong.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Utterly devastating news, we can't begin to imagine how safe and how free we are in Canada.

Was talking (briefly) with a Ukrainian friend last night between him trying to stay updated on some friends. He never mentioned family and rarely has before, he knows loss, this has hit him to his core. My heart goes out to the ones in this thread struggling.

[Samonadreau]

#### Russia. It's too bad we live in a time of Nuclear weapons and can't just put a bully in it's place.

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497219816964374553


Thanks for the help, China. Really, big help.

[indes]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

This article in the Economist offers an insight into the mindset of Putin’s inner circle. Paywalled, but I think you can access one free article a month,







On the effectiveness of sanctions:







Tldr: Previous sanctions spurred the regime to develop domestic sectors to make Russia more self-reliant, Putin’s cronies run those sectors, and so they will actually benefit from another round of sanctions.

Very interesting article. Is this whole thing to remove themselves as much as possible from the import side of the global economy? I wonder if it's feasible for them to rely on a national economy augmented by energy exports. It's obviously not a viable long term strategy as you would think Russian energy will be replaced eventually.

I hate to rapid post and I'm probably wrong but I just don't see a real long term outlook that's positive for Russia. Still think there will be another shoe to drop at some point.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin is madman, not a genius. Russia will gain nothing from this war. Arguably Putin himself will gain nothing from this war except for maybe some joy.

That's a big reason why this is so scary and upsetting.

If Russia needs no other reason to attack than the whims of it's leader, and the attack is not based on anything truly rational, then there's no safety in discourse, trade relations or diplomacy.

It's just para bellum from here on out. Even if Putin is replaced, there's nothing to guarantee that the next guy, or the one after that, is not just as bad.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Build a permanent natural gas transport system to Europe to squeeze his future revenues.

It is called LNG, and we need to get everything potential project approved immediately.

Kitimat won't come online soon enough.

[Azure]

A lot of Ukrainian people live in my area. Devastating to talk to them.

Sad, but proud in a way that Trudeau is handling this better than Biden IMO. Way more decisive and is coming down much harder where we can as a country.

[FlameOn]

Foreign policy report quoting numbers out of Ukrainian government. Russia deaths likely over 2800 at this point. Fighting in the outskirts of Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497214326213652480

Estonian MOD dropping more military aid to Ukraine including more Javelins, medical supplies on MREs

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497199719730266134

US ramping up a $10B emergency spending package and aid. EU ramping up more sanctions including ones personally directed at Putin and Lavrov. There are plans in the works for asset freezes for other Oligarchs as well.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497205862368174080

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497203528598708225

Ukraine severs diplomatic relations with Russia, Russia responds with this cheeky message and veiled threat

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497218421775286280

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Financial Times says EU is preparing freeze assets of Putin (and Lavrov)
https://www.ft.com/content/5e7282fc-...a-8abb52228472

Non-paywalled article : https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...lavrov-assets/

Preparing to? This should have been done day one.

[surferguy]

I just a twitter thread (can’t find it now) that suggests the elevated readings of radiation around Chernobyl may be attributed to agitated soil stirred up as tanks went through the area. It mentioned the sensor readings spiked around the same time the tanks would have entered the area and several of them returned to normal levels before they went offline.

Again this is unverified information but hopefully one that comes to fruition, damages to that site could/would be catastrophic .


Edit: found thread

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497215329767870470

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Itse

That's a big reason why this is so scary and upsetting.

If Russia needs no other reason to attack than the whims of it's leader, and the attack is not based on anything truly rational, then there's no safety in discourse, trade relations or diplomacy.

It's just para bellum from here on out. Even if Putin is replaced, there's nothing to guarantee that the next guy, or the one after that, is not just as bad.

It's hard to imagine this going well for Russia in the end either. Even if they see China as an ally now, will they accept being the underling for them in the long run?

If Ukraine is holding out longer and tougher than expected - they will end up having to turn to stronger weapons - which will cause mass causalities and be immediately broadcast to Europe and North America - turning the opinions even stronger against Russia even within the country itself.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Preparing to? This should have been done day one.

Don't just freeze them either, take them and use it to fund Ukraine.

Putin is rumoured to secretly be one of the richest people in the world.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Financial Times says EU is preparing freeze assets of Putin (and Lavrov)
Paywalled

FYI for paywall articles if you need to read them. 12ft.io and archive.md are your friends. 12ft.io will let you direct link to the articles for posts. Archive.md works too but not as good and gets hammered.