Russia invades Ukraine

[peter12]

Originally Posted by 81MC

The Budapest Memorandum was supposed to secure Ukraine for it denuclearizing. Now, Russia gets to use nuclear threats to get away with invading Ukraine. My ass would be very chapped.

Sure, but beyond that, how would you actually go about supporting Ukraine? They don't have the economy to full swap over to a more Westernized military force, so we do the best we can by sending them light equipment and training their military.

[cDnStealth]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Right, which is why the EU isn't going to stop buying their energy, but if you're a Ukranian... why do you care? Why not just say damn the torpedoes? You can hurt Russia in a way they'll feel by cutting off part of their economic engine - if it hurts Germany at the same time, well, sorry, we're fighting for our country over here, we're not terribly worried about you.

This is an interesting idea and without knowing how much of that energy Ukraine relies on for themselves it's a strategy I'd certainly look at executing if I were in their shoes. Realistically, it's no different from destroying your own bridges, roads, rail and communication lines to deny them to your enemy.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

The problem is that WWII and the lessons we learned from it faded into generational memory.

The lesson wasn't learned to the point they would resound in our bones.

We are more akin to the Chamberlain era right now where the world had assumed that Hitler/Putin could be appeased and his moves for lebenstraum (living space) predicated on nonsense about protecting German speaking people in other countries (Russian minorities in the two Ukranian regions that Putin recognized independence for) were all from the same playbook.

This is a dangerous game and we are seeing the first major modern 21st century warfare between 1st world nations play out.

I think the scenario right now displays the flaw of nuclear deterrents as a concept. It deters the other side from responding, but not the side of the aggressor.

The choice may be between appeasement or nuclear annihilation. Both options suck to varying degrees.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by WCW Nitro

Can someone explain one thing to me? One of the grievances Russia has is that it doesn't want Nato encroaching on this border via Ukraine, but if they capture Ukraine, they will be surrounded by NAto countries. So why does this make strategic sense for them, unless the reasoning is that it brings Russia into the heart of Europe and thus balances out.

Because even if they conquer the whole country and it all is just subsumed into Russia, Russia won't really consider that territory to be "Russia" in the sense of being something it particularly cares about. It'll basically just be a buffer.

That being said, obviously NATO is already on its border because all the Baltic countries are in NATO since 2004.

[Zoller]

They will likely instill a puppet government and keep their buffer zone

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by 81MC

The Budapest Memorandum was supposed to secure Ukraine for it denuclearizing. Now, Russia gets to use nuclear threats to get away with invading Ukraine. My ass would be very chapped.

Lesson for Europe to learn, Russians are not to be trusted and the treaties signed by Russians aren't worth the paper they are written on long term. Heck even the Russian people cannot trust their own leaders. They've been getting screwed themselves for 1000 years.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Zoller

They will likely instill a puppet government and keep their buffer zone

Agreed, I think for this to happen they will have to destroy the bulk of Ukrainian ground forces. If that happens, it will happen in the next couple of days.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by peter12

Yeah, I was totally wrong. I was pretty certain that Russia would be pursuing a limited, asymmetrical war, not full-scale invasion.

That said, even though these first 24 hours have been nuts, it is more likely to be a fairly limited engagement. Next couple of days will be decisive.

Just to be clear, one assumption didn't follow the other here. Now that Russia appears to have thrown its full weight at Ukraine, I expect - given the discrepancy in force capabilities - for it to be over very quickly.

But who knows? Maybe Ukraine will be able to bring some of their new Javelin ATGMs to bear against those huge Russian tank columns.

Russia is going to 'win' quickly. But that doesn't mean the fighting ends quickly. There will be unrest, protests, riots, etc.

Just think if the US came and invaded Canada. They would have us defeated quickly, but a lot of people aren't just going to accept it and say well I'm American now.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by peter12

Agreed, I think for this to happen they will have to destroy the bulk of Ukrainian ground forces. If that happens, it will happen in the next couple of days.

If the Kyiv government and military moves out of the capital it could be longer. Russia's ground war in Georgia took longer than 12 days and that was a much smaller country for Russia to bully.

[JoseCuervo]

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by cDnStealth

This is an interesting idea and without knowing how much of that energy Ukraine relies on for themselves it's a strategy I'd certainly look at executing if I were in their shoes. Realistically, it's no different from destroying your own bridges, roads, rail and communication lines to deny them to your enemy.

Ukraine was about to do a test of cutting themselves off from Russian power for 3 days and had a goal of being fully disconnected by 2023. But they aren't ready to go off of Russian power full time now.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

If the Kyiv government and military moves out of the capital it could be longer. Russia's ground war in Georgia took longer than 12 days and that was a much smaller country for Russia to bully.

The Russian military is generally considered to have operated quite poorly in Georgia, since then, their forces have undergone a significant period of modernization. This is a different Russian force invading Ukraine.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Right, which is why the EU isn't going to stop buying their energy, but if you're a Ukranian... why do you care? Why not just say damn the torpedoes? You can hurt Russia in a way they'll feel by cutting off part of their economic engine - if it hurts Germany at the same time, well, sorry, we're fighting for our country over here, we're not terribly worried about you.

The pipelines bring in $1.2 billion a year in transit fees to the Ukraine. Which is why they were so pissed at the Germans for approving the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline (which Germany suspended two days ago).

[peter12]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Russia is going to 'win' quickly. But that doesn't mean the fighting ends quickly. There will be unrest, protests, riots, etc.

Just think if the US came and invaded Canada. They would have us defeated quickly, but a lot of people aren't just going to accept it and say well I'm American now.

Yep, but I'm talking about traditional military defeat here.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Ukraine was about to do a test of cutting themselves off from Russian power for 3 days and had a goal of being fully disconnected by 2023. But they aren't ready to go off of Russian power full time now.

If your country is about to fall, you're probably not terribly concerned about the ramifications for peoples' ability to turn on their lights. You're just trying to weaken and hurt the invaders as much as you can before the end.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The pipelines bring in $1.2 billion a year in transit fees to the Ukraine. Which is why they were so pissed at the Germans for approving the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline (which Germany suspended two days ago).

Then they're about to bring $1.2 billion in economic value to a puppet state for the guy who just stole your country from you, and that seems to make them an even more attractive target, from where I sit.

[FlameOn]

Ukrainians reporting they've fully retaken the Antonov airport

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496941052074201090

[peter12]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Ukrainians reporting they've fully retaken the Antonov airport

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496941052074201090

This is pretty significant. To go back to UCB's points, add up a handful of small defeats like these and Ukraine has a chance.

That said, repulsing airborne forces is one thing, stopping one of those columns of T-80s will be something else.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by locke

somewhere in ukraine there was someone last night who was watching 'red dawn' for the first time...

Its basically a documentary now...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496934615142989824

[FlameOn]

UK MOD map update of Russian advance.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496935262487818247

This in line with the detailed plans UK and US intelligence obtained months ago and published last week. Lines up with reports that the Western MD grouping getting really tied up in heavy fighting at Sumy.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1494315294382297091

My guess in a limited war situation Russia will set up the new puppet government and expand the Donetsk/Luhansk regions out to the Dneiper river to ensure Crimea has a proper land route to Russia proper.

[Ozy_Flame]

Looking at what's happening today, it's my opinion the following events may happen:

1. Russia will take Ukraine in a first phase, probably by the early March at the latest, but certainly longer than Putin expected.
2. Russia will install a pro-Kremlin government, likely with a puppet admin that has been agreed upon for months now. Civil unrest will happen for a while.
3. The insurgency will begin to organize, and NATO will support this insurgency with special forces training, weapons, forward reconnaissance, etc. This will take place over the coming weeks and months, and galvanize European powers to fight a proxy war through this insurgency.
4. Russia is going to continually have to deal with insurgent forces that will take a much larger toll on the Russian resolve in Ukraine than they anticipated. There's going to be a lot of Russian body bags being sent home when the insurgency begins.

They may also find Volodymyr Zelenskyy and execute him, although that will prove to more difficult than they thought.