2022: The year the world returns to war?

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by agulati

By the logic of Kyiv having been under Moscow rule, and so it justifies this, should the UK go back and recolonize all their empire? British Raj controlled India, for longer than their independence. Before the British Raj, India, along with many other countries in a similar situation, didn’t necessarily exist in its current form. Does that give them the authority or justification to go back in?

I never said it JUSTIFIES the war. In fact I said the very opposite. It does, however, justify accepting the status quo, getting a peace deal done and moving on. It's Russian now, frankly it should have been Russian all along, the way Ukraine got it at the first place was not "democratic" and "fair" either. Some people say that recognizing Crimea is a no starter, so no peace talks until Putin drops this point. I don't get why. No point in bleeding over it, let Russia have it, get peace agreement and move on.

[icarus]

Is NATO really such an existential threat to Russia? Reading Putin's speech it seems he doesn't believe it is a defense organisation but rather is gearing up to launch a preemptive strike on Russia from Ukraine (which he uses as justification to launch a preemptive strike on Ukraine).

[Pointman]

Based on known demands, this is how it could move forward

Territory.

West demands:
Return Donbass to Ukraine
Return Crimea to Ukraine

Russia demands:
Keep Crimea

Solution:
Return Donbass to Ukraine. Putin doesn't seem to want it any bad. He didn't recognize them for 8 years. He didn't include them in his demands.
Let Russia keep Crimea and move the hell on

Military.
West demands:
Guarantees of Ukraine safety
Ukraine as a member of NATO

Russia demands:
Guarantees of Russian safety
No Ukraine in NATO

Solution:
Make a USA-Ukraine defensive deal, similar to USA-Isreal one. Send in UN peace keepers if necessary. Build defensive infrastructure. A side deal can be worked out where Russia pays a huge sum for Ukraine defense in return for dropping sanctions. Build a Maginot line if you wish. Let Russians inspect military bases so they are sure it is defensive. Don't let Russia keep troops near Ukrainian border except for border control services. Do not make Ukraine a NATO member.

[Azure]

Pointman are you still actively living in Russia?

[Elkyiv]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Based on known demands, this is how it could move forward

Territory.

West demands:
Return Donbass to Ukraine
Return Crimea to Ukraine

Russia demands:
Keep Crimea

Solution:
Return Donbass to Ukraine. Putin doesn't seem to want it any bad. He didn't recognize them for 8 years. He didn't include them in his demands.
Let Russia keep Crimea and move the hell on

At this point, I don't even think Ukraine wants to keep Donbas. The people living there will never have any allegiance to Kyiv, and there's a good chance Kyiv will treat them as second class citizens.

I'm curious to know how the citizenry living inside Luhansk and Donetsk regions that are under Ukrainian control feels. I believe there's a strong chance that if given the choice, they'd prefer to align with Russia/DPR/LPR.

The optics of such a move from Kyiv, however, is a non-starter.

With respect to Crimea, this question is completely closed. There's no prospects of it going back to Ukraine.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Based on known demands, this is how it could move forward

Territory.

West demands:
Return Donbass to Ukraine
Return Crimea to Ukraine

Russia demands:
Keep Crimea

Solution:
Return Donbass to Ukraine. Putin doesn't seem to want it any bad. He didn't recognize them for 8 years. He didn't include them in his demands.
Let Russia keep Crimea and move the hell on

Military.
West demands:
Guarantees of Ukraine safety
Ukraine as a member of NATO

Russia demands:
Guarantees of Russian safety
No Ukraine in NATO

Solution:
Make a USA-Ukraine defensive deal, similar to USA-Isreal one. Send in UN peace keepers if necessary. Build defensive infrastructure. A side deal can be worked out where Russia pays a huge sum for Ukraine defense in return for dropping sanctions. Build a Maginot line if you wish. Let Russians inspect military bases so they are sure it is defensive. Don't let Russia keep troops near Ukrainian border except for border control services. Do not make Ukraine a NATO member.

If NATO was a threat, Putin wouldn't be attacking Ukraine. In your suggestion, Putin just gives up Donbass in exchange for essentially nothing but the official admission from Ukraine that yes, we lost Crimea.

If what you suggest would be something Putin was willing to consider, he would have started this by offering Donbass in exchange for safety guarantees and official recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, because that would have been a lot cheaper and wouldn't have resulted in international shame for Russia plus economic sanctions.

It's just obvious that what you're suggesting is not on the table from Putins side, not unless there's an actual threat he couldn't solve by just attacking pre-emptively.

(It's also somewhat questionable whether Putin is even able to hand over Donbass. Those troops might be pro-Russian, but they're not likely to put down those arms and just give up on their independence if Putin would abandon them.)

Sure Ukraine has a right to defend itself. And the west has a right to step in and help. I just don't want this whole situation to go that route. I want peace, not bigger war. My country and I personally may and probably will suffer from sanctions at best. I don't even want to think about the worst. I may get a call to join army if it comes to that. I don't just sit on a couch theorizing about this war.

Here's why what you're doing is making excuses for war;

The whole reason Putin is doing what he's doing in Ukraine is that he doesn't believe it will lead to a major war. This should be fairly obvious no? Putin is not crazy, he knows a major war would be an uncontrollable beast and in no way in his interest.

This whole thing that he's doing in Ukraine is based on the idea that the Russian troops around Ukraine don't think that what they're doing will start something that could turn into a third world war. There might be a lot of patriots in that group, but nobody goes to war thinking that it might burn the whole world.

He also needs Russian civilians to quietly just accept that he's doing this, for them to keep paying their taxes and keep going to work everyday. He doesn't need for anyone to agree with him (that's why he's a dictator), he only needs for people to accept that letting him do what he wants is generally the safest choice for everyone, for example for you.

Yes, it's very human for you to think that "well there's nothing I can do about Putin so the only thing I can hope for is that all the people in other countries are just going to let Putin do what he wants", but until you accept that this is not a reasonable position, you are only giving Putin the excuse he needs.

The excuse he needs is the hope that nothing bad might not come from what he's doing.

The reality is however, that Putin is already gambling with your life, right now. It's a really unlikely that the west will just let itself be humiliated without a response, just as it's very unlikely that Putin might be appeased with something like you're suggesting.

While I think it's unlikely that there will be a major war now when the west is completely unprepared for it, Putin is currently sowing the seeds for a much larger conflict, and the way out off that path is not hope that maybe there won't be a retaliation.

NATO might be essentially non-functional right now, but that's largely because nations in the west have thought that NATO isn't really needed, that there are more important matters such as UK/EU trade etc. However, the popularity of NATO has just absolutely skyrocketed in Finland, and I'm guessing the same is happening in most of Europe.

Even if Putin gets what he wants right now (which currently seems likely but the future IS hard to predict), he has just given a massive boost towards re-militarizing Europe and made it obvious to everyone west of Russia that Russia is an enemy to me and mine, that there is nothing else we can do than strengthen our military and cut our ties to Russia even further... the ties that have been a large factor in guaranteeing peace.

What you're saying is that you hope we don't respond to what Putin is doing, so you don't end up getting called to fight with, for example, me. That's both extremely human and extremely unreasonable, and the impression I'm getting from you is that you would do it. You would take up arms for Putins Russia if you were told and come to the Finnish border to shoot at me and mine, or Americans or Ukrainians or whoever happen to be on the other side.

That's why this is happening. People in Russia thinking, hoping, that what Putin is doing is maybe just fine.

However, from our point of view, Putin just made it obvious that the only way to stop his aggression and ambition is by preparing for a major war with Russia, ​and while that preparation might bring peace, it's an extremely dangerous gamble, because those preparations can just as easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I need to support my country building up it's military so that if you come across the border, I have as much support as I can possibly have.

A much less dangerous way to stop this current development is that you in Russia make it clear that his action is unpopular, that there isn't support for his aggression, that YOU don't accept his grievances as legitimate, that you are will not quietly just accept that he's gambling with your life.

It might not be pretty, but the number of people that could get hurt in demonstrations is a lot less that have already been hurt in Ukraine.

Only Russians can de-escalate what Russians have escalated.

Please stop just hoping for the best, it's dangerous for me and mine. Putin might miscalculate what he can get away with, and the world might blow up because of it.

EDIT:

You have the luxury of hoping that maybe giving in to Putin now would actually be helpful. You can hope that maybe he speaks the truth.

It would however be absolutely insane for anyone this side of Russia to hang anything on the hope that maybe Putin can be appeased or maybe he's speaking the truth.

We have to now respond to the possibility that maybe he can't be appeased, no matter how this particular conflict ends.

[Cheese]

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported at 7 am Kyiv time that in the last 24 hours, one Ukrainian soldier was killed and six Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in action. In the last 24 hours, Russian-terrorist forces opened fire on Ukrainian positions on the Luhansk and Donetsk sectors of the front and on civilian areas near the frontline 111 times in total, including at least 95 times with heavy weapons – Grad rockets, artillery, mortars and tanks.

[JoseCuervo]

For what it’s worth, the US now says they are expecting the full scale invasion of Ukraine in the next 24 hours. They have of course moved this timing several times over the last week.

[Elkyiv]

Originally Posted by Itse

A much less dangerous way to stop this current development is that you in Russia make it clear that his action is unpopular, that there isn't support for his aggression, that YOU don't accept his grievances as legitimate, that you are will not quietly just accept that he's gambling with your life.

It might not be pretty, but the number of people that could get hurt in demonstrations is a lot less that have already been hurt in Ukraine.

Only Russians can de-escalate what Russians have escalated.

This will not happen because they are cowards. They can start a protest, sure, like they did in Belarus, but ultimately, they just do not have the balls to see it through. They will always be stuck in a perpetual dictatorship.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Itse

If NATO was a threat, Putin wouldn't be attacking Ukraine. In your suggestion, Putin just gives up Donbass in exchange for essentially nothing but the official admission from Ukraine that yes, we lost Crimea.

If what you suggest would be something Putin was willing to consider, he would have started this by offering Donbass in exchange for safety guarantees and official recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, because that would have been a lot cheaper and wouldn't have resulted in international shame for Russia plus economic sanctions.

It's just obvious that what you're suggesting is not on the table from Putins side, not unless there's an actual threat he couldn't solve by just attacking pre-emptively.

(It's also somewhat questionable whether Putin is even able to hand over Donbass. Those troops might be pro-Russian, but they're not likely to put down those arms and just give up on their independence if Putin would abandon them.)



Here's why what you're doing is making excuses for war;

The whole reason Putin is doing what he's doing in Ukraine is that he doesn't believe it will lead to a major war. This should be fairly obvious no? Putin is not crazy, he knows a major war would be an uncontrollable beast and in no way in his interest.

This whole thing that he's doing in Ukraine is based on the idea that the Russian troops around Ukraine don't think that what they're doing will start something that could turn into a third world war. There might be a lot of patriots in that group, but nobody goes to war thinking that it might burn the whole world.

He also needs Russian civilians to quietly just accept that he's doing this, for them to keep paying their taxes and keep going to work everyday. He doesn't need for anyone to agree with him (that's why he's a dictator), he only needs for people to accept that letting him do what he wants is generally the safest choice for everyone, for example for you.

Yes, it's very human for you to think that "well there's nothing I can do about Putin so the only thing I can hope for is that all the people in other countries are just going to let Putin do what he wants", but until you accept that this is not a reasonable position, you are only giving Putin the excuse he needs.

The excuse he needs is the hope that nothing bad might not come from what he's doing.

The reality is however, that Putin is already gambling with your life, right now. It's a really unlikely that the west will just let itself be humiliated without a response, just as it's very unlikely that Putin might be appeased with something like you're suggesting.

While I think it's unlikely that there will be a major war now when the west is completely unprepared for it, Putin is currently sowing the seeds for a much larger conflict, and the way out off that path is not hope that maybe there won't be a retaliation.

NATO might be essentially non-functional right now, but that's largely because nations in the west have thought that NATO isn't really needed, that there are more important matters such as UK/EU trade etc. However, the popularity of NATO has just absolutely skyrocketed in Finland, and I'm guessing the same is happening in most of Europe.

Even if Putin gets what he wants right now (which currently seems likely but the future IS hard to predict), he has just given a massive boost towards re-militarizing Europe and made it obvious to everyone west of Russia that Russia is an enemy to me and mine, that there is nothing else we can do than strengthen our military and cut our ties to Russia even further... the ties that have been a large factor in guaranteeing peace.

What you're saying is that you hope we don't respond to what Putin is doing, so you don't end up getting called to fight with, for example, me. That's both extremely human and extremely unreasonable, and the impression I'm getting from you is that you would do it. You would take up arms for Putins Russia if you were told and come to the Finnish border to shoot at me and mine, or Americans or Ukrainians or whoever happen to be on the other side.

That's why this is happening. People in Russia thinking, hoping, that what Putin is doing is maybe just fine.

However, from our point of view, Putin just made it obvious that the only way to stop his aggression and ambition is by preparing for a major war with Russia, ​and while that preparation might bring peace, it's an extremely dangerous gamble, because those preparations can just as easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I need to support my country building up it's military so that if you come across the border, I have as much support as I can possibly have.

A much less dangerous way to stop this current development is that you in Russia make it clear that his action is unpopular, that there isn't support for his aggression, that YOU don't accept his grievances as legitimate, that you are will not quietly just accept that he's gambling with your life.

It might not be pretty, but the number of people that could get hurt in demonstrations is a lot less that have already been hurt in Ukraine.

Only Russians can de-escalate what Russians have escalated.

Please stop just hoping for the best, it's dangerous for me and mine. Putin might miscalculate what he can get away with, and the world might blow up because of it.

EDIT:

You have the luxury of hoping that maybe giving in to Putin now would actually be helpful. You can hope that maybe he speaks the truth.

It would however be absolutely insane for anyone this side of Russia to hang anything on the hope that maybe Putin can be appeased or maybe he's speaking the truth.

We have to now respond to the possibility that maybe he can't be appeased, no matter how this particular conflict ends.

Not the happiest content - but one hell of a post.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Elkyiv

This will not happen because they are cowards. They can start a protest, sure, like they did in Belarus, but ultimately, they just do not have the balls to see it through. They will always be stuck in a perpetual dictatorship.

The people in Belarus asked for a change in regime. That's extreme. (Justified, but extreme.)

Putin doesn't need to be removed from power, he just needs to stop gambling with war.

All that would be needed is for Putin to feel that further warmongering might make him lose support in Russia. That's enough.

No extreme demands, just people marching in the streets asking for peace, letting him know that Russians are not buying his excuses for war, that they see through his endless stream of obvious false-flag operations and propaganda, that they know what he's up to.

Putin cares a lot about his popularity and his legacy. Peace marches directed at his actions would go against that.

Just peace marches in general, in Russia, directed at Russian leadership. Sometimes that stuff works, it's a lot better than doing nothing.

Plus it would be kind of hard for Putin to crack down hard on peace marches without looking really bad in front of Russians.

[FlamesAddiction]

According to Putin, the fall of the Soviet Union (or Russian Empire as it really was) is the biggest catastrophe of the 20th century. I think that is what makes him so dangerous. His whole life's work has been to correct what in his mind was the worst thing to ever happen. You can't talk sense into someone like that. He knows that his time left on the Earth is finite and if he is going to avenge Russia, he has to make a move now.

[Elkyiv]

Originally Posted by Itse

Plus it would be kind of hard for Putin to crack down hard on peace marches without looking really bad in front of Russians.

It wouldn't be hard. They don't care. They carried Garry Kasparov away into a bus like some petulant child in front of cameras. They will do anything they want.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

According to Putin, the fall of the Soviet Union (or Russian Empire as it really was) is the biggest catastrophe of the 20th century. I think that is what makes him so dangerous. His whole life's work has been to correct what in his mind was the worst thing to ever happen. You can't talk sense into someone like that. He knows that his time left on the Earth is finite and if he is going to avenge Russia, he has to make a move now.

Soviet Union was a lot of things that really can't be summed up with just calling it a Russian empire.

Putin of course might see it differently, I have no idea. It's extremely difficult to know what he actually believes and what's just a show for one audience or another.

My GUESS is that Putin also has a lot of complicated opinions about the Soviet Union that can't be easily summed up.

I do think he (like many who worked in intelligence agencies), is a firm believer that politics are primarily a game of power. You play the game to get more power, and when you have power you use it to get more power. This applies to factions, individuals and nations, now and forever. It's quite possible that he doesn't really have much ideals beyond some fairly vague nationalism. He does what he does because he believes it's what you do, and he's good at it so it works for him.

Hell, he's extremely good at that game, somewhat obviously when you consider that he very likely is the most powerful individual in the world right now.

(Putin, or at least his regime, is genuinely just amazingly good with power games, if I was in the mood I could talk quite a lot about it.)

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Elkyiv

It wouldn't be hard. They don't care. They carried Garry Kasparov away into a bus like some petulant child in front of cameras. They will do anything they want.

That, again, is quite different. Kasparov openly questioned Putins claim to power. (Cracking down on that is kind of expected in most of the world really.)

Cracking down on people who just want peace would, I'm sure, be a very different thing.

If Putin didn't care what Russians thought about his attack on Ukraine, he wouldn't be wasting time in all that propaganda and endless false-flag operations. He's not stupid, he knows even dictators need popular support, and he's throwing a LOT of propaganda at the Russians right now to gain legitimacy for his actions and thus support.

If he had fears that his actions might cause him to lose significant support within Russia, and if he got the message that Russians aren't all buying the lies he's selling, he would very likely back down, at least a bit.

Russia is very far from North Korea. The great leader can be criticized and is criticized quite a lot. Just don't oppose him directly and you'll generally be fine.

[PeteMoss]

Well.. Russia now claiming the separtists are requesting their help.

This is unfolding exactly how the US/UK, etc said it would.

Pointman - what's the take in Russia? Are they buying any of this?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Well.. Russia now claiming the separtists are requesting their help.

This is unfolding exactly how the US/UK, etc said it would.

Pointman - what's the take in Russia? Are they buying any of this?

I'm super curious about this.

Like, do the citizens of the largest country in the world REALLY want grab some more land at the expense of Russian and Ukrainian lives, as well as economic hardship to themselves (sanctions)?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Well.. Russia now claiming the separtists are requesting their help.

This is unfolding exactly how the US/UK, etc said it would.

Pointman - what's the take in Russia? Are they buying any of this?

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I'm super curious about this.

Like, do the citizens of the largest country in the world REALLY want grab some more land at the expense of Russian and Ukrainian lives, as well as economic hardship to themselves (sanctions)?

Historically it doesn’t matter what the Russian public thinks or wants……

[PeteMoss]

Good speech by Ukraine president in Russian towards Russian people (twitter thread)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496622014353874955

[tony-soprano]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1496621081808883714