Buy?/Sell?/All-in?/Tank? What should the Flames do?

[yourbestfriend]

The options proposed by the OP suck. Why not something in between?
We can buy, build for the future and "go in" all at the same time.

Getting a player like Hertl and then resigning him helps us now and in the future. Acquiring someone of that caliber shows Gaudreau and Tkachuk that management is absolutely committed to winning here long term, and I would think makes them more inclined to stay.
I also have no clue why posters are suggesting we go after Giroux or Pavelski. They help us now as rentals, but not four or five seasons down the road. Who is comfortable giving either of those players a long term contract? If your answer to that is "not comfortable", then why are we trading for them? We are not a Giroux/Pavelski away from winning a cup. Where the team is at right now, it's just bad asset management and completely delusional to go after older UFA's.

[Sylvanfan]

As much as there are 8 teams in the East already out of it, and likely 4 more in the West by the Deadline, will there really be a good supply of players being sold?

For some of these fringier teams like the 3 California teams and Dallas, I'm not so sure they'll sell any of their better UFA players vs keeping them. So Pavelski, Hertl, Maier, Rackell are all players who likely stay with those teams with new contracts.

So it's going to be more a matter of picking thru the Montreal, Ottawa, Arizona, Chicago, Seattle rosters for UFA's to be to see what will be available. Still a couple decent pieces to be had. But I think a guy like Jarnkrok might be costlier to acquire because he has a low salary, and is very versatile in terms of where you can play him in the lineup, and that he can play any position. There's a short supply of that type of player, and there's likely 15 other teams with playoff aspirations who can fit him somewhere in their lineup.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

The options proposed by the OP suck. Why not something in between?
We can buy, build for the future and "go in" all at the same time.

Getting a player like Hertl and then resigning him helps us now and in the future. Acquiring someone of that caliber shows Gaudreau and Tkachuk that management is absolutely committed to winning here long term, and I would think makes them more inclined to stay.
I also have no clue why posters are suggesting we go after Giroux or Pavelski. They help us now as rentals, but not four or five seasons down the road. Who is comfortable giving either of those players a long term contract? If your answer to that is "not comfortable", then why are we trading for them? We are not a Giroux/Pavelski away from winning a cup. Where the team is at right now, it's just bad asset management and completely delusional to go after older UFA's.

Considering that Calgary will already have trouble signing all of their players next year, how would they fit a Hertl into the mix?

People are suggesting players like Giroux and Pavelski because they are rentals.

Calgary is a contender for the Cup. While their chances are not great, no team has a great chance. That's the nature of 16 teams making the playoffs and chasing the Cup. But when you get your chance, you likely need to do what you can to increase your odds.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

The options proposed by the OP suck. Why not something in between?
We can buy, build for the future and "go in" all at the same time.

Getting a player like Hertl and then resigning him helps us now and in the future. Acquiring someone of that caliber shows Gaudreau and Tkachuk that management is absolutely committed to winning here long term, and I would think makes them more inclined to stay.
I also have no clue why posters are suggesting we go after Giroux or Pavelski. They help us now as rentals, but not four or five seasons down the road. Who is comfortable giving either of those players a long term contract? If your answer to that is "not comfortable", then why are we trading for them? We are not a Giroux/Pavelski away from winning a cup. Where the team is at right now, it's just bad asset management and completely delusional to go after older UFA's.

Salary cap?

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Considering that Calgary will already have trouble signing all of their players next year, how would they fit a Hertl into the mix?

People are suggesting players like Giroux and Pavelski because they are rentals.

Calgary is a contender for the Cup. While their chances are not great, no team has a great chance. That's the nature of 16 teams making the playoffs and chasing the Cup. But when you get your chance, you likely need to do what you can to increase your odds.

The short term goals have to align with the long term goals. Otherwise, we get an organization with no direction and roster decisions which make no sense.
Judging by the forwards that Tre has been going after the last few years (Eichel, Kadri, Hall, Stone), he's of the same thought. They are all young enough to have an impact now and in the foreseeable future. Those are the assets you absolutely are willing to spend your futures on - not older UFA's. In fact, in the last few years, I can't think of a single UFA who he was rumored to be trading for who was over ~30. I don't see that changing any time soon.

In terms of salary cap, obviously that's a constraint, but I'm thinking that if Tre had a plan to add Eichel earlier this year, then he can probably add a Hertl type player at the deadline if the opportunity was available.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Tank.

Tanketity tank tank tank, then when they're all tanked up, tank some more.

Be the Tiananmen Square of tanks on Tanksgiving.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Tank.

Tanketity tank tank tank, then when they're all tanked up, tank some more.

Be the Tiananmen Square of tanks on Tanksgiving.

Have Sutter show up to the first game after the Deadline dressed as a Tank Commander, and visibly scold anyone who makes a good play.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by theinfinitejar

Sucking for a decade is absolutely not a given. If you suck for that long you have bigger problems than whether you bought too much 10 years before.

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

It’s not so cut and dry I mean look at the Oilers having 10 top 10 picks, numerous 1st overalls and the like and blundering all of that away. Buffalo comes to mind as well for having had riches upon riches but seemingly they have but mere flashes to show for it. The Flames find themselves in a really good position when it comes to the hockey they are paying right now and adding in a couple of pieces to push them over the top makes complete sense. This is a 32 team league, it’s competitive and some teams really have to jump at a chance when it presents itself otherwise mediocrity will reign supreme and that’s Calgary to me. Never willing to push the chips all in especially when it matters most. This is as good a time as any to load up and I’m confident the Flames are finally going to do just that which is exciting.

Please name some examples of teams that unloaded many of their top prospects and multiple first rounders to load up on one playoff run, and didn't suffer a long stretch of losing shortly thereafter.

And what are some examples of teams that became perrenial contenders (as in legitimate cup threats most years for a period of time longer than a decade) and got there by unloading a ton of futures as soon as they appeared to be in cup contention?

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Please name some examples of teams that unloaded many of their top prospects and multiple first rounders to load up on one playoff run, and didn't suffer a long stretch of losing shortly thereafter.

And what are some examples of teams that became perrenial contenders (as in legitimate cup threats most years for a period of time longer than a decade) and got there by unloading a ton of futures as soon as they appeared to be in cup contention?

Chicago comes to mind instantly. After getting their fair share of firsts and landing guys like Toews and Kane, they routinely traded picks, prospects and sometimes even prominent young players (Byfuglien, Panarin, Saad) before and after cups to continue running with the core in several iterations of cup teams. Pittsburgh also loaded up multiple times on quests for glory dealing away young players and picks (Kapanen and a 1st for Phil) in an attempt to lift the Stanley Cup. Both have had dominance for years and years attempting multiple deadline deals until finally succumbing to their aging cores though Pittsburgh is still playing pretty good hockey.

The flames are in an interesting position and it is a gamble no doubt to roll the dice but with the way they’re playing and with how long we’ve waited as fans to see this core playing the way it is I can’t help but want to see them go all in and see what they’ve got. If they succeed I have no doubts that Johnny and Tkachuk sign long term deals and if we don’t I still think there is a good chance we keep both. If Treliving feels like he has a good pulse on things I think the flames add a big time player at the deadline and for good reason.

[Mathgod]

The Hawks had a 6 year run of dominance, but haven't won a playoff round since (this is their 7th straight year of ineptitude). They had to draft 2 generational talents in addition to morgaging their future to have that 6 year run. Luck had to also be on their side. There was no guarantee of winning those cups.

The Penguins won Crosby in a lottery, and also got lucky when they drafted Malkin with a #2 pick (#2 picks are often not a Malkin calibre player).

The point is, becoming a long-term contender requires one of two things. Either you have multiple top 3 picks that happen to be generational talents, and you properly build around them, or you patiently build up your talent pool by drafting well, winning trades, managing your cap situation intelligently, and being patient. In either case, you also need luck.

[Heavy Jack]

The flames arguably have players who are top 3 talents in Tkachuk and Gaudreau, so what if they weren’t drafted in those spots they are starting to present as top end talent and that’s where the gamble is. I personally think this is the beginning of the next evolution of both Gaudreau and Tkachuk and if we end up keeping them and it lead to a piddly 6-7 years of dominance in the playoffs and a cup or two then oh darn I guess. If the Flames push all in it’s a good sign to show Tkachuk and Johnny they mean to win and with both Johnny and Tkachuk giving no reason to make anyone believe they wouldn’t consider extending in Calgary I don’t get why you wouldn’t want to see another top 6 added into the fold. Even if it allowed us to get just one swing with this core I’d be grateful to see it after following it very closely for 8 seasons.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Please name some examples of teams that unloaded many of their top prospects and multiple first rounders to load up on one playoff run, and didn't suffer a long stretch of losing shortly thereafter.

And what are some examples of teams that became perrenial contenders (as in legitimate cup threats most years for a period of time longer than a decade) and got there by unloading a ton of futures as soon as they appeared to be in cup contention?

TBL.

LAK.

WAS traded Forsberg for Erat and won a cup 5 years later.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

The flames arguably have players who are top 3 talents in Tkachuk and Gaudreau, so what if they weren’t drafted in those spots they are starting to present as top end talent and that’s where the gamble is.

Haven't you been listening to The Narrative? You can't win unless you draft players in the top 3. Ever. It doesn't matter how good the players you get later in the draft turn out to be.

[Manhattanboy]

All in baby. Covid declines just in time for a long cup run and this City parties like it’s ‘89.

[slcrocket]

So how again are the Flames acquiring someone with term if we are hoping to re-sign Gaudreau/Tkachuk/Mangiapane/Kylington? I don't think we can re-sign all four in either case. If all four want to be here, ship out Mangiapane as he likely has a higher value now than he'll ever have. If not, you can't let any of them go for free.

This has to be about long-term competitiveness, not throwing all chips in for a team with a very outside shot at competing. I love this team and can't wait to see a playoff run, but I'm not deluding myself that this team competes with Colorado/Vegas/Florida/Tampa/etc. Not yet.

[Groot]

I'm on team all-in for sure. In my ideal world we put together 3 trades, one to move cap, one to bring in a rental, one for a player with term.

Trade 1
To Arizona:
Sean Monahan
Calgary 2023 3rd round pick
Calgary 2022 5th round pick

To Calgary:
Arizona 2022 6th Round Pick

Trade 2
To Philadelphia:
Jusso Valimaki
Calgary 2022 1st round pick

To Calgary:
Claude Giroux

Trade 3
To Montreal:
Jakob Pelletier
Calgary 2022 2nd round pick (from Florida)

To Calgary:
Tyler Toffoli

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Giroux - Toffoli
Coleman - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Ruzicka - Lewis
Richardson/Ritchie

Hanifin - Andersson
Kylington - Tanev
Zadorov - Gudbrandson
Stone

Markstrom
Vladar

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Groot

I'm on team all-in for sure. In my ideal world we put together 3 trades, one to move cap, one to bring in a rental, one for a player with term.

Trade 1
To Arizona:
Sean Monahan
Calgary 2023 3rd round pick
Calgary 2022 5th round pick

To Calgary:
Arizona 2022 6th Round Pick

Trade 2
To Philadelphia:
Jusso Valimaki
Calgary 2022 1st round pick

To Calgary:
Claude Giroux

Trade 3
To Montreal:
Jakob Pelletier
Calgary 2022 2nd round pick (from Florida)

To Calgary:
Tyler Toffoli

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Giroux - Toffoli
Coleman - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Ruzicka - Lewis
Richardson/Ritchie

Hanifin - Andersson
Kylington - Tanev
Zadorov - Gudbrandson
Stone

Markstrom
Vladar

Trading Valimaki, Pelletier, a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for short term solutions would hurt the Flames for a long time. If the win the cup, or even finalists, it may be worth it. If you lose in the first or second round, it hurts for many years. I'd rather roll the dice with what we have than condemn the furture of the franchise.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

Trading Valimaki, Pelletier, a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for short term solutions would hurt the Flames for a long time. If the win the cup, or even finalists, it may be worth it. If you lose in the first or second round, it hurts for many years. I'd rather roll the dice with what we have than condemn the furture of the franchise.

The picks are spread over 2 years, and the 5th would likely be about 10 picks or less away from Arizona's 6th, so you "lose it" but you're really just dropping some spots from late 5th to early 6th round. You also get Toffoli who solves a longer term need on the RW at a great cap hit. Freeing up the cap space from Monahan now makes it easier to sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk to long term deals ext year while having room to sign Mangiapane and Kylington, even with Toffoli on the team, and bring in the big rental in Giroux.

So I don't really look at it like giving up those assets for short term solutions, but I did say I'm on team all-in.

Even just get Toffoli and a cheaper rental option and I'm happy.

[Sandman]

Just read an interesting article on TSN's Facebook page. They picked the Rangers as the NHL's most overvalued (or overhyped) team, and the Flames as the most undervalued.

-Florida and Calgary are the only teams in the league with 36 shots/game, but 5vs5 the Flames are more balanced-Florida has a ferocious offense, with so-so defense. In contrast, Flames rank better in high-danger-chances-allowed than high-danger-chances-produced. Flames are top-10 in expected-goals, both offensively and defensively.

-21 of the next 26 games are at home, and the underlying numbers suggest that the Flames are going to go on a big run. In their own barn, Calgary's expected goals % is 62.70, while their high-danger-chances % is 62.75. The next highest in each category respectively are 58.88 and 59, meaning they are dominating play in their own rink more than any other team by a substantial margin. We have 10 more shots per home game than any other team, but our shooting% is 6.38%, whereas on the road it's 8.33%.

-From the start of the season to Dec.1st, Markstrom ranked just outside thd top of the league in GSAx. Since that time, he's been in between bad, and a liability. In his last 8 games, his GSAx has been respectable, showing there is hope.

All this team needs is more scoring, and we're as dangerous as any other team.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Groot

I'm on team all-in for sure...

That is how you burn a team to the ground in one trade deadline. That is all-in. You better hope you've got pocket bullets and the other two aces come out on the flop, because you're bust if that gamble doesn't work. I think you're bust even if it does work.