Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[browntrout]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Every day that goes by Trey loses leverage. Both in trying to resign him and in dealing him if it comes to that.

They either open up the wallet now and get it done, or they get squadoosh in return. It would be negligent not to get this resolved before the trade deadline. Obviously.

Why on Gods green earth would any team trade their star player, before the playoffs, regardless of his contract status, has this ever even been done by any team in any sport on planet earth.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by browntrout

Why on Gods green earth would any team trade their star player, before the playoffs, regardless of his contract status, has this ever even been done by any team in any sport on planet earth.

I don't believe it has. On earth anyway. I believe it has happened on Planet Pluto, but that's a dog's breakfast league at best.

Plus, Johnny can likely prevent any trade if he wants to.

[PeteMoss]

If they can't sign him, they'll trade his rights for something I assume unless they decide to be to the Leafs and get nothing for him for no reason.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Players of course have different priorities, but never discount money. IMO $$ comes first, then city. Winning maybe, but on a long term contract, players know that winning may or may not happen with almost any team.

If winning was imperative over money, Hamilton stays in CAR over NJD, Grubauer doesn’t go to Seattle, Panarin finds somewhere other than NYR, etc.

Or if you are Matt Duschene, country music comes first.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

How does he loose leverage ? Or more specifically , how does he have any leverage right now ?

JG bet on himself . It is looking like a very good bet . Calgary can now either pay (assuming he wants to stay) or hes already decided to leave

Either way BT has the same leverage. It makes zero difference until 1 minute before the UFA deadline with the 8th year. And there’s no chance the Flames are trading JG. Zero . Less then zero actually . You don’t play to a 100 pt pace and trade your star player for a pick and prospect at the deadline . I don’t believe in the history of the NHL it has happened (baiting people to go research as I don’t have time )

Just my two cents from 35,000 feet but Gaudreau doesn't look like he has one foot out the door. He looks as invested as he has in years.

Obviously people will say that this is the result of being in a contract year, and I am sure there is some accuracy to that, but I think there is more to it than just chasing a pay cheque. I think it also says that he is enjoying, and benefiting, from his surroundings. I think this is good news from a Flames perspective.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by browntrout

Why on Gods green earth would any team trade their star player, before the playoffs, regardless of his contract status, has this ever even been done by any team in any sport on planet earth.

Because the GM has painted himself into a corner.

The team is on the path to lose its three best forwards in the next 18 months.

If Johnny isn’t extended, this playoff is this group’s last dance. If you’re going to let him walk for nothing, you pretty much have to unload Lindholm and Tkachuk to offset whatever you didn’t get for Gaudreau.

Trading all three could well set this team up for a decade, but as everyone knows “the goal is playoffs”.

Even though they could just spend to the cap floor and be a professional hockey franchise for a few years and nobody would bat an eye.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Because the GM has painted himself into a corner.

The team is on the path to lose its three best forwards in the next 18 months.

If Johnny isn’t extended, this playoff is this group’s last dance. If you’re going to let him walk for nothing, you pretty much have to unload Lindholm and Tkachuk to offset whatever you didn’t get for Gaudreau.

Trading all three could well set this team up for a decade, but as everyone knows “the goal is playoffs”.

Even though they could just spend to the cap floor and be a professional hockey franchise for a few years and nobody would bat an eye.

Then they should have traded these guys before the season , not signed Coleman, and started the rebuild to be one year closer

What would be the point of playing well to the trade deadline and then trading your best player for assets ? That means they wasted this year and a year of
Rebuild

The point is to win hockey games . This team is trying to win

If they can’t sign JG though it has to be a full rebuild

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Players of course have different priorities, but never discount money. IMO $$ comes first, then city. Winning maybe, but on a long term contract, players know that winning may or may not happen with almost any team.

If winning was imperative over money, Hamilton stays in CAR over NJD, Grubauer doesn’t go to Seattle, Panarin finds somewhere other than NYR, etc.

Yeah, I think priorities for NHL players with options of where to sign are typically:

1) Money
2) Location

a) Climate
b) Amount of travel and nights away from home
c) Lifestyle
d) Proximity to family and support network

3) Current standings of team

#3 varies so much year to year for the 20 or so franchises in the mushy middle that players looking at 4-7 year deals don’t put much weight in it. The exception is players in the twilight of their career looking for a last shot at the Cup.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Then they should have traded these guys before the season , not signed Coleman, and started the rebuild to be one year closer

What would be the point of playing well to the trade deadline and then trading your best player for assets ? That means they wasted this year and a year of
Rebuild

The point is to win hockey games . This team is trying to win

If they can’t sign JG though it has to be a full rebuild

I'm not suggesting they trade Gaudreau; I'm saying that once he's gone, don't waste time trying to make something work with Tkachuk and Lindholm.

Tkachuk with 1 year is valuable if you trade him to a team with a good chance to re-sign him. 1st + at minimum.

Lindholm with 2 years left @ <$5M is someone any contender would be bending over backwards to acquire. 1st, 2nd, and a top prospect, maybe more if there's a bidding war.

Re-sign Mangiapane and Kylington - if you're gonna pay people, it may as well be guys you develop.

I really would like to see this team be a cap floor team for a few seasons. There's no reason to spend this much every year to achieve this little.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

This is just such a massive assumption that you are then using to assume failure on the GM's part.

No, my assumption all along was that Treliving was trying to maximize his 4-5 year window with a deeper line up which isn’t even a bad strategy. Obviously it was more so his execution that fell short.

I remember in the past he had talked quite a bit about getting his top guys more help after their early first round exits. So i can see why he ended up bridging Tkachuk and Mangiapane, because he really wanted to load up for his window.

But for me personally, I wouldn’t have bridged either of those two players. To me, they were foundation pieces that I would’ve signed long term, especially Mangiapane. I saw something special in this kid since his Penticton tournament days where he outplayed Sam Bennett. If it was me, I would’ve given him the long term deal and just cut salary elsewhere. Also, at the time, Mangiapane had just played his first full NHL season, so his contract ask wouldn’t have been anything near what he’ll command if he flirts with 40 goals this season.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Yeah, I think priorities for NHL players with options of where to sign are typically:


#3 varies so much year to year for the 20 or so franchises in the mushy middle that players looking at 4-7 year deals don’t put much weight in it. The exception is players in the twilight of their career looking for a last shot at the Cup.

And even then it doesn’t usually work out: see Iginla, Jarome.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

There was no cap room above what Tkachuk signed for. And there’s no indication Tkachuk wanted something longer than right to his QO. I suppose maybe he’d have taken another year, to go UFA. But not long term.

And Mangiapane’s stats were, at the time, not conducive to anything other than what he got. He had only 1.5 seasons under his belt and really only the season before had been significant. He was just below. 5 ppg. Everyone wanted to see which way he’d go. Was he blossoming or was he Lance Bouma?

This is what forecasting is all about, the great GMs of the league always seem to pick the right guys to bet on. That’s how you get ahead in this league, it’s not always what the guy bas earned, it’s about paying for potential in today’s game and yes, I would’ve made that bet with Mangiapane. I remember scoffing at the deal and saying that he would be cheaper now and that he’d only cost Treliving way more in 2 years time.

As for Tkachuk, the cap was definitely tighter for the team in 2019 than it was in 2020. But like I said, it’s a GMs job to forecast their cap situation many year ahead. Perhaps it could’ve been as simple as him not signing James Neal, Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik and etc. Had he maybe found himself a cheaper option than James Neal, perhaps Tkachuk would have the long term deal in place.

Cap management is one of the most critical components to a GMs job and the way he managed his cap up to this point, has put him in the difficult spot he will be in this summer. Treliving knew a long time ago that 2022 was going to be tough offseason, he set it up that way.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

This is what forecasting is all about, the great GMs of the league always seem to pick the right guys to bet on.

More like, the GMs who happen to bet on the right guys look like they are great at their jobs. Remember Ken Holland before he became a no-good bum?

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

But like I said, it’s a GMs job to forecast their cap situation many year ahead.

So which GM predicted in 2019 that the cap would flatline for two years because of a global pandemic? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

More like, the GMs who happen to bet on the right guys look like they are great at their jobs. Remember Ken Holland before he became a no-good bum?



So which GM predicted in 2019 that the cap would flatline for two years because of a global pandemic? Inquiring minds want to know.

Hey, some guys get lucky and some guys do their homework and get it right. Sometimes mistakes happen, but you can’t make too many of them because it just sets you back. I’m not going to turn this thread into some detailed debate + analysis on Treliving’s history as Flames’ GM. I’m just here to say that it would’ve been a damn good idea to sign Tkachuk and Mangiapane to long term deals because I certainly thought that was going to be the case for a while until it ended up not happening. I was actually pretty dumbfounded when it went the other way, especially with Mangiapane. It’s just my opinion though and there’s nothing that can change history at this point, so it is what it is.

As for the cap space, I don’t know why any GM would just conclude that the cap will go up a certain number and that they’re safe to gamble. I would actually expect most GMs by nature, to be very risk adverse. So you should plan based on worse case scenarios and we saw that happen even before the pandemic. The cap was suppose to rise from $79.5M to $83M (link below), but it ended up well under at $81.5M. So, this kind of stuff happens and GMs should be able to adapt. An unanticipated cap number isn’t really a free pass to make a bunch of mistakes (generally speaking).

[MrMike]

As someone born and raised in Calgary who ran to Vancouver Island as quickly as they had an opportunity, climate was important.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by MrMike

As someone born and raised in Calgary who ran to Vancouver Island as quickly as they had an opportunity, climate was important.

Query: how does someone run to Vancouver Island? Did a bridge get built while I dozed?

[browntrout]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

This is what forecasting is all about, the great GMs of the league always seem to pick the right guys to bet on. That’s how you get ahead in this league, it’s not always what the guy bas earned, it’s about paying for potential in today’s game and yes, I would’ve made that bet with Mangiapane. I remember scoffing at the deal and saying that he would be cheaper now and that he’d only cost Treliving way more in 2 years time.

As for Tkachuk, the cap was definitely tighter for the team in 2019 than it was in 2020. But like I said, it’s a GMs job to forecast their cap situation many year ahead. Perhaps it could’ve been as simple as him not signing James Neal, Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik and etc. Had he maybe found himself a cheaper option than James Neal, perhaps Tkachuk would have the long term deal in place.

Cap management is one of the most critical components to a GMs job and the way he managed his cap up to this point, has put him in the difficult spot he will be in this summer. Treliving knew a long time ago that 2022 was going to be tough offseason, he set it up that way.

What an absolute crap answer, based upon complete inaccuracies to support your narrative that our GM is crappy at his job.

This team has over 31 million in cap space next year, no buyouts counting against the cap and 3 draft picks in the first 2 rounds. Tkachuk and Mangiapane are RFA's. Tkachuk can be qualified at 9, Mangiapane has some arbitration rights, but not has much bargaining power as a UFA. The following year Monahan and Lucic come off the books.

If and that's a big if because I don't see the team needing to they could buyout a player.

Further more in two years Backlund comes off the books, leaving more money for a Lindholm signing.

Tampa which won the cup the last two years, even had to trade good players away because of a cap crunch, does that mean their GM sucks.

Support an argument with facts

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Hey, some guys get lucky and some guys do their homework and get it right. Sometimes mistakes happen, but you can’t make too many of them because it just sets you back. I’m not going to turn this thread into some detailed debate + analysis on Treliving’s history as Flames’ GM. I’m just here to say that it would’ve been a damn good idea to sign Tkachuk and Mangiapane to long term deals because I certainly thought that was going to be the case for a while until it ended up not happening. I was actually pretty dumbfounded when it went the other way, especially with Mangiapane. It’s just my opinion though and there’s nothing that can change history at this point, so it is what it is.

As for the cap space, I don’t know why any GM would just conclude that the cap will go up a certain number and that they’re safe to gamble. I would actually expect most GMs by nature, to be very risk adverse. So you should plan based on worse case scenarios and we saw that happen even before the pandemic. The cap was suppose to rise from $79.5M to $83M (link below), but it ended up well under at $81.5M. So, this kind of stuff happens and GMs should be able to adapt. An unanticipated cap number isn’t really a free pass to make a bunch of mistakes (generally speaking).

To the bold, the players have to actually be willing to sign those deals. If you were Mangiapane, would you have signed a long term deal at a low AAV, or would you rather bet on yourself?

As to the second paragraph, only a fool thinks the GMs aren't planning for all contingencies going forward. Even so, no one can predict what the future holds, and criticizing others in retrospect, is pretty weak.

Some contracts work out great, and others you wish you did differently. Suggesting the GM 'didn't foresee' how it would play out is empty hindsight.

[talladega.25]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Just my two cents from 35,000 feet but Gaudreau doesn't look like he has one foot out the door. He looks as invested as he has in years.

Obviously people will say that this is the result of being in a contract year, and I am sure there is some accuracy to that, but I think there is more to it than just chasing a pay cheque. I think it also says that he is enjoying, and benefiting, from his surroundings. I think this is good news from a Flames perspective.

While I agree with you on Gaudreau's investment and play this year (Probably the best he has ever looked). He is auditioning for pay raise, pressure is off and he just boosts his value with each passing game it seems like.
Factor in his agent too, his advise would be to test free agency, let the other 31 teams roll out the red carpets, pitches, and $$$'s.
He is having fun because he knows now he will get paid and have the option to sign where he sees fit. Not solely because he loves this city and team.

I honestly believe that the likelihood of him resigning here is less than 20%.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

To the bold, the players have to actually be willing to sign those deals. If you were Mangiapane, would you have signed a long term deal at a low AAV, or would you rather bet on yourself?

As to the second paragraph, only a fool thinks the GMs aren't planning for all contingencies going forward. Even so, no one can predict what the future holds, and criticizing others in retrospect, is pretty weak.

Some contracts work out great, and others you wish you did differently. Suggesting the GM 'didn't foresee' how it would play out is empty hindsight.

So why are our young star players unwilling to sign here long term? Could it be they don’t believe in the GM who has had five head coaches (hired four) in eight years?

When Andrew Mangiapane won’t sign long term, that’s telling.