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Old 02-02-2022, 09:28 AM   #3701
Jimmy Stang
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I think one thing is for sure is that the excitement generated of a World Cup berth let alone any kind of success (and indeed the success already achieved) is going to spur a lot of kids wanting to play which is only good for the future of Canadian soccer.
It is huge. Assuming they do qualify (I know the odds, but I refuse to celebrate until it is official), then Canada will be playing in two consecutive World Cups, with the second being partially on home turf.

This really is the beginning of something unprecedented for Canadian soccer. Even I haven't fully come to grips with the magnitude of these next few years.

When it was announced that Canada would co-host in 2026, I will admit that I cynically thought "well at least Canada will qualify for a World Cup in my lifetime" (I was 6 in 1986, but too young to remember it or understand the importance). I am absolutely thrilled that they are poised to make 2022 on their own merit, which will make 2026 even more special. They won't be seen as being there just because they are a co-host. I see this as qualifying for two at once.

It is nice to see so many people getting excited about it. The non-hardcore people, the casual observers, the "soccer snobs" that usually don't support their local team because (insert club and country here), etc. It seems that everyone is taking note.

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Old 02-02-2022, 10:15 AM   #3702
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I was actually pretty choked when they announced the expansion of the World Cup format, because we've all spent our entire lives with making the hex as being this illustrious target to shoot for, and getting 4th and making the play-in game being the holy grail. While we've got the Ocho, not the Hex, this campaign is just checking all those life long boxes before we close the door on this era of qualifying. It's probably the most satisfying and drawn out positive sporting experience I've ever had.
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:24 AM   #3703
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Game Days feel like such a treat.

Meaningful soccer these late stages is amazing. Such a shame the WC won't be in the summer so we can keep the momentum going.

I hope they don't get too cute today, and just play their game and walk away with 3 points and hopefully an official qualification to Qatar
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:30 AM   #3704
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I was actually pretty choked when they announced the expansion of the World Cup format, because we've all spent our entire lives with making the hex as being this illustrious target to shoot for, and getting 4th and making the play-in game being the holy grail. While we've got the Ocho, not the Hex, this campaign is just checking all those life long boxes before we close the door on this era of qualifying. It's probably the most satisfying and drawn out positive sporting experience I've ever had.
I still have fuzzy memories of being 13, staying up to some ungodly hour, only to watch Canada losing that last ditch home and home to Australia in penalties (and thus not qualifying for USA 1994 - that would've been big). In the absence of many good memories of supporting the men's national team, that terrible one still sticks out as being significant. Formative.

Of course, the 8-1 massacre against Honduras was more recent and arguably more rock bottom, but I was considerably more cynical and defeated by then.

Experiences like those, plus the mundane losses to mediocre continental opponents, that shape us and make these good days even better.
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:32 AM   #3705
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Yeah, the 94 campaign hurt (mostly because I knew I was going to attend that World Cup) They had Mexico on the ropes in Toronto.
They should have won by more in Edmonton against Australia against 10 men. And they should have gotten the 2nd away goal in Sydney.
But I don't think they would have gotten past Argentina.
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:47 AM   #3706
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Yeah, the 94 campaign hurt (mostly because I knew I was going to attend that World Cup) They had Mexico on the ropes in Toronto.
They should have won by more in Edmonton against Australia against 10 men. And they should have gotten the 2nd away goal in Sydney.
But I don't think they would have gotten past Argentina.
I had actually forgotten that Argentina loomed in another of those back door rounds if they beat Australia. I'll blame the fog of time, but it underscores my blissful ignorance back then. "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

Digging into the archives, Australia "only" lost 2-1 on aggregate to an Argentina side that included Maradona and Batistuta.

This makes me even more thankful for the current Canada squad and qualifying schedule.

Speaking of terrible paths to qualification - remember the terrible Concacaf format for 2022 that Covid mercifully killed? Imagine being denied this Ocho?
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:50 AM   #3707
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I had actually forgotten that Argentina loomed in another of those back door rounds if they beat Australia. I'll blame the fog of time, but it underscores my blissful ignorance back then. "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

Digging into the archives, Australia "only" lost 2-1 on aggregate to an Argentina side that included Maradona and Batistuta.

This makes me even more thankful for the current Canada squad and qualifying schedule.

Speaking of terrible paths to qualification - remember the terrible Concacaf format for 2022 that Covid mercifully killed? Imagine being denied this Ocho?
But they would have crushed the losers bracket and then new zealand. So either way, I dont think this team was going to be denied.
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:52 AM   #3708
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I am too young to remember 1994 World Cup Qualifying but I remember 2000 Qualifying / 2002 World Cup being painful.

Canada wins the 2000 Gold Cup in what felt like a big moment for Canadian Soccer.

And then we didn't even make it to the final of the Concacaf qualifying round later that summer and it felt like all that momentum from earlier in the year for Canadian soccer just vanished.
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:54 AM   #3709
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But they would have crushed the losers bracket and then new zealand. So either way, I dont think this team was going to be denied.
Probably. But without these inspiring, eye-catching, confidence-building wins. This is so much more enjoyable to go toe to toe with the big boys of the region and actually getting results. Such a treat.
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Old 02-02-2022, 10:59 AM   #3710
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I am too young to remember 1994 World Cup Qualifying but I remember 2000 Qualifying / 2002 World Cup being painful.

Canada wins the 2000 Gold Cup in what felt like a big moment for Canadian Soccer.

And then we didn't even make it to the final of the Concacaf qualifying round later that summer and it felt like all that momentum from earlier in the year for Canadian soccer just vanished.
Yes - beds were shat (twice) vs. Trinidad & Tobago who surprisingly topped the semifinal group above Mexico. And then T&T finished last in the Hex.

And no, I didn't do that from memory. All I remember about it was that it was not a good cycle for Canada.

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_F...AF_semi-finals
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Old 02-02-2022, 11:01 AM   #3711
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I am too young to remember 1994 World Cup Qualifying but I remember 2000 Qualifying / 2002 World Cup being painful.

Canada wins the 2000 Gold Cup in what felt like a big moment for Canadian Soccer.

And then we didn't even make it to the final of the Concacaf qualifying round later that summer and it felt like all that momentum from earlier in the year for Canadian soccer just vanished.
Even when Canada was doing well in this year's Gold Cup, WC qualifying just seemed WAY bigger. It's hard to get up for the Gold Cup tbh.

I'll say it again, but I dream of N and S America coming together to do a quadrennial tournament to rival the Euros.

Euro teams are always in a two year qualifying cycle - WC or EC. I wish it was the same here but we could only do it if both N&S Americas joined up.
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Old 02-02-2022, 11:33 AM   #3712
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1488270901976068098

I'm not familiar with the process at all but thought this was interesting.
So based on this, we essentially have to get our ranking up to 29?

I know we have come miles already (more than any other country in the last year), but frankly, I still think we deserve a better rank than 36th. Consider:
  • 4 points against both USA and Mexico (ranked 11th and 14th as of Dec)
  • leading the CONCACAF group by a fairly significant margin
  • Most wins, no losses
  • Most goals for, and best goal differential by double

But... we have climbed to the point now, where all teams are good - into the Australia, Russia, Korea, Czech, Austria, Scotland neighbourhood. Moving up from here will be a challenge.

I would think that, to get our ranking into the 20s, we need to win CONCACAF, not just qualify. And that is very doable, but not easy (Mexico still has 2 gimmie games left).
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Old 02-02-2022, 11:48 AM   #3713
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So based on this, we essentially have to get our ranking up to 29?

I know we have come miles already (more than any other country in the last year), but frankly, I still think we deserve a better rank than 36th. Consider:
  • 4 points against both USA and Mexico (ranked 11th and 14th as of Dec)
  • leading the CONCACAF group by a fairly significant margin
  • Most wins, no losses
  • Most goals for, and best goal differential by double

But... we have climbed to the point now, where all teams are good - into the Australia, Russia, Korea, Czech, Austria, Scotland neighbourhood. Moving up from here will be a challenge.

I would think that, to get our ranking into the 20s, we need to win CONCACAF, not just qualify. And that is very doable, but not easy (Mexico still has 2 gimmie games left).
I played with a world cup draw simulator the other day and got us in a pool with Qatar, Denmark and Morocco...even with Denmark as a tough pot 2 draw I think that's pretty darn good!
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Old 02-02-2022, 12:52 PM   #3714
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In case anyone needs a reminder:

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Old 02-02-2022, 01:00 PM   #3715
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In case anyone needs a reminder:
Did you see the Moose flag in Hamilton?
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Old 02-02-2022, 01:26 PM   #3716
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Because I wasted a morning, I will point out that if Canada beats El Salvador and Panama and the USA lose, it doesn't matter what happens in the Costa Rica game, Canada would qualify because the US and Costa Rica have to play each other.



So it's effectively two scenarios that can happen today that are independent of each other:


Qualification path:
Canada win + Panama loss + USA loss EDIT: +Costa Rica draw or loss.

Playoff clinching path:
Canada win + Costa Rica draw or loss, OR Canada draw + Costa Rica loss = Canada clinch playoff spot






EDIT: So if you read this post, you have also wasted time!!111

Last edited by Roughneck; 02-02-2022 at 01:44 PM.
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Old 02-02-2022, 01:36 PM   #3717
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Because I wasted a morning, I will point out that if Canada beats El Salvador and Panama and the USA lose, it doesn't matter what happens in the Costa Rica game, Canada would qualify because the US and Costa Rica have to play each other.



So it's effectively two scenarios that can happen today that are independent of each other:


Qualification path:
Canada win + Panama loss + USA loss


Playoff clinching path:
Canada win + Costa Rica draw or loss, OR Canada draw + Costa Rica loss = Canada clinch playoff spot

I originally thought that as well but that would only exclude USA if Costa Rica win out, Mexico and Panama could still finish higher in points and Costa Rica if they win out would get to 25 points in a tie breaking scenario with Canada.
The first tie breaker is goals for/against not head to head so it’s an incredible stretch but there technically is a scenario Costa Rica could finish higher than us on goal diff as well as Mexico and Panama on simple points.

Last edited by Yoho; 02-02-2022 at 01:45 PM.
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Old 02-02-2022, 01:37 PM   #3718
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https://twitter.com/BorjanPants/stat...uFKoGL3oAXDPsw
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Old 02-02-2022, 01:41 PM   #3719
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I originally thought that as well but that would only exclude USA, Mexico and Panama could still finish higher in points and Costa Rica if they win out would get to 25 points in a tie breaking scenario with Canada.
The first tie breaker is goals for/against not head to head so it’s an incredible stretch but there technically is a scenario Costa Rica could finish higher than us on goal diff as well as Mexico and Panama on simple points.

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Old 02-02-2022, 01:53 PM   #3720
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Not sure if anyone had "El Salvador players might boycott match" on their bingo card...

https://twitter.com/prensagrafica/st...72536545267712

Translated:

"Players of the El Salvador national team announce that they will not show up for the game against Canada."
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