Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

All this proves is just how bad some of those media guys are at trade proposals.

It was always a bad take. Gaudreau was having an off-season - for multiple reasons, including his centerman playing hurt. You don't trade guys at times like that.

Konecny never had anything close to the upside that Gaudreau has.

I believe in the Custance article, they polled NHL executives anonymously. It wasn't some 'media guy' spit balling. There was some legitimacy to this, or at least provided some insight to what the value of Guadreau may have been around the league.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The main argument at the time from what I recall was that JG was a pending UFA and the team was really under-performing. If we were going to lose him for nothing, a better alternative would be to get a really good player back on a decent contract.

If we do end up losing JG for nothing and the team fizzles out in the playoffs, we can revisit this.

Right. I tend to think he extends. But if he doesn’t Konecny+ would look better than nothing (assuming there’s no cup this year as well).

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The amount teams make from selling merchandise of a particular player is likely peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

If ownership is telling Treliving to sign him, and Johnny wants to stay and sign, one would think he'd be signed by now, unless they still haven't agreed to a term and AAV.

Why? Seriously, it is not surprising at all it isn't done yet. Gaudreau and his agent are probably wanting to wait until season's end to use his fantastic year to bolster his dollars and BT probably has a lower number in mind and it is his job to get the dollar amount locked in as low as possible. Both sides are going to draw this out as long as they can to negotiate their side of things. At the end of the day though BT has to sign Gaudreau and unless Johnny is dead set on leaving I don't see how it doesn't get done.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Why? Seriously, it is not surprising at all it isn't done yet. Gaudreau and his agent are probably wanting to wait until season's end to use his fantastic year to bolster his dollars and BT probably has a lower number in mind and it is his job to get the dollar amount locked in as low as possible. Both sides are going to draw this out as long as they can to negotiate their side of things. At the end of the day though BT has to sign Gaudreau and unless Johnny is dead set on leaving I don't see how it doesn't get done.

But if the season is done, why would Gaudreau not at least test the market? He'll be one of the hottest UFA's in years in the NHL, it's a massive opportunity for him that few players ever get to experience.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

They probably are giving orders to sign him, he is a merchandise cash cow as well.

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The amount teams make from selling merchandise of a particular player is likely peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure I remember hearing that all jersey revenue is split between the teams. So selling a bunch of jerseys in one market would uptick the split for all 32 teams by a small blip, rather than one team getting a windfall because they signed a star.

Can anyone confirm?

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by jayswin

But if the season is done, why would Gaudreau not at least test the market? He'll be one of the hottest UFA's in years in the NHL, it's a massive opportunity for him that few players ever get to experience.

Of course he will test the market . That will give him the markets best offer -

The question is whether his agent has told BT - JG wants to play in Calgary for his career but is betting on himself this season and we will give you right of first refusal on any offer or

If JG will go shopping for a new home

There’s always a risk a player gets blown away by another cities non $$ opportunities - facility , city , etc and just signs

But assuming JG does want to stay in Calgary there’s nothing wrong with him betting on himself this year and allowing the Flames to match the top offer on the market

Then it’s up to the Flames to pay market value or not

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by jayswin

But if the season is done, why would Gaudreau not at least test the market? He'll be one of the hottest UFA's in years in the NHL, it's a massive opportunity for him that few players ever get to experience.

Because once he goes UFA he can't get that 8th year on the deal. So if he can get 10M/7yrs or 9.5M/8yrs from Calgary that is an extra $6M in guaranteed money. If he can get it up to 9.75 that is an extra $8M. If BT has to cave and give him $10M that math is easy. If he is being honest when he says he loves it here and wants to stay it will get done even if it is the hour before UFA. Landeskog did the same thing. Now if he goes UFA then I would worry and BT should be immediately fired the second after free agency begins.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Because once he goes UFA he can't get that 8th year on the deal. So if he can get 10M/7yrs or 9.5M/8yrs from Calgary that is an extra $6M in guaranteed money. If he can get it up to 9.75 that is an extra $8M. If BT has to cave and give him $10M that math is easy. If he is being honest when he says he loves it here and wants to stay it will get done even if it is the hour before UFA. Landeskog did the same thing. Now if he goes UFA then I would worry and BT should be immediately fired the second after free agency begins.

Subject to taxes of course, but I’m not sure Philly has a tax advantage.

[jayswin]

Has that been confirmed that the Flames can't offer an 8th year after free agency starts? If that's true than that definitely changes things a bit in Calgary's favour.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Because once he goes UFA he can't get that 8th year on the deal. So if he can get 10M/7yrs or 9.5M/8yrs from Calgary that is an extra $6M in guaranteed money. If he can get it up to 9.75 that is an extra $8M. If BT has to cave and give him $10M that math is easy. If he is being honest when he says he loves it here and wants to stay it will get done even if it is the hour before UFA. Landeskog did the same thing. Now if he goes UFA then I would worry and BT should be immediately fired the second after free agency begins.

Is it confirmed the 8th year voids at start of FA ? I saw some conflicting information

If so the Flames have until 1 minute before or he’s gone

[GioforPM]

^^ IDK but it makes sense because as of July 1 he’s not under contract to the Flames. That 8th year ability flows with the contract, no?

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^ IDK but it makes sense because as of July 1 he’s not under contract to the Flames. That 8th year ability flows with the contract, no?

Sounds like it expires at midnight before FA. So if Flames do not have him signed at that point I would expect it means goodbye .

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pen...sign-and-trade

[SuperMatt18]

I've often wondering if part of the situation revolves around how Gaudreau's wife feels about living in Calgary.

This is the first year she's moved out here, and IIRC she's trying to transfer her work so she can work as a Nurse in Calgary.

To me that's promising because I'm not sure you do that if you think Johnny's only going to be here this season.

But could also be a bit of a hold up if they want so how she likes living here before committing to a contract.

Personally I am actually confident Gaudreau gets re-signed here.

[pseudoreality]

I don't think money will end up being the deciding factor for Gaudreau. He's going to get paid no matter what. It is what else the team is going to offer him and his family that will ultimately decide where he wants to spend what could be the rest of his career. He's comfortable playing here, so there's that. However, he probably wants to win. Therefore, this year's playoffs will have a huge impact. I would put the resigning odds at different levels depending on how the team does this spring:

25% 1st round exit
40% 2nd round exit
60% 3rd round exit
75% 4th round exit
85% win Stanley Cup

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Why? Seriously, it is not surprising at all it isn't done yet. Gaudreau and his agent are probably wanting to wait until season's end to use his fantastic year to bolster his dollars and BT probably has a lower number in mind and it is his job to get the dollar amount locked in as low as possible. Both sides are going to draw this out as long as they can to negotiate their side of things. At the end of the day though BT has to sign Gaudreau and unless Johnny is dead set on leaving I don't see how it doesn't get done.

If the parties have not agreed to the term and AAV, there is no guarantee that it will be agreed to later on.

I don't believe Johnny wants to stay come hell or high water. He will stay if the price is right. So far, it hasn't been.

If Treliving "has to sign him", we aren't going to like the number.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

^^ IDK but it makes sense because as of July 1 he’s not under contract to the Flames. That 8th year ability flows with the contract, no?

That is correct, the 8th year option expires at the beginning of the UFA period. I did not know that.

So, I think that is good for us and Johnny, it puts pressure on both sides to get a deal done before that deadline.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by pseudoreality

I don't think money will end up being the deciding factor for Gaudreau. He's going to get paid no matter what. It is what else the team is going to offer him and his family that will ultimately decide where he wants to spend what could be the rest of his career. He's comfortable playing here, so there's that. However, he probably wants to win. Therefore, this year's playoffs will have a huge impact. I would put the resigning odds at different levels depending on how the team does this spring:

25% 1st round exit
40% 2nd round exit
60% 3rd round exit
75% 4th round exit
85% win Stanley Cup

Players of course have different priorities, but never discount money. IMO $$ comes first, then city. Winning maybe, but on a long term contract, players know that winning may or may not happen with almost any team.

If winning was imperative over money, Hamilton stays in CAR over NJD, Grubauer doesn’t go to Seattle, Panarin finds somewhere other than NYR, etc.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Why? Seriously, it is not surprising at all it isn't done yet. Gaudreau and his agent are probably wanting to wait until season's end to use his fantastic year to bolster his dollars and BT probably has a lower number in mind and it is his job to get the dollar amount locked in as low as possible. Both sides are going to draw this out as long as they can to negotiate their side of things. At the end of the day though BT has to sign Gaudreau and unless Johnny is dead set on leaving I don't see how it doesn't get done.

Every day that goes by Trey loses leverage. Both in trying to resign him and in dealing him if it comes to that.

They either open up the wallet now and get it done, or they get squadoosh in return. It would be negligent not to get this resolved before the trade deadline. Obviously.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Every day that goes by Trey loses leverage. Both in trying to resign him and in dealing him if it comes to that.

They either open up the wallet now and get it done, or they get squadoosh in return. It would be negligent not to get this resolved before the trade deadline. Obviously.

How does he loose leverage ? Or more specifically , how does he have any leverage right now ?

JG bet on himself . It is looking like a very good bet . Calgary can now either pay (assuming he wants to stay) or hes already decided to leave

Either way BT has the same leverage. It makes zero difference until 1 minute before the UFA deadline with the 8th year. And there’s no chance the Flames are trading JG. Zero . Less then zero actually . You don’t play to a 100 pt pace and trade your star player for a pick and prospect at the deadline . I don’t believe in the history of the NHL it has happened (baiting people to go research as I don’t have time )

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Every day that goes by Trey loses leverage. Both in trying to resign him and in dealing him if it comes to that.

They either open up the wallet now and get it done, or they get squadoosh in return. It would be negligent not to get this resolved before the trade deadline. Obviously.

Gaudreau is not getting traded at the deadline unless the Flames are firmly out of the playoffs. That is why I am all for them spending some futures and taking a swing at it this year.

If Gaudreau walks then the Flames will have to rebuild or re-tool. Only thing I'd be annoyed about is if the Flames trade their 1st next year