2022: The year the world returns to war?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Yes. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.

Thanks for that.

I was just reading about it on Wikipedia and it sounds pretty vague. The "security assurance" sounds more like a promise not to invade, than a promise to defend, in which case Russia would be the only one violating the agreement.

It interpreted that the agreement can be used as a justification for military intervention for defense, but that the parties are not legally obligated to offer military assistance. I don't know, but it sounds like it is a little flakey.

Here are the key points in the agreement:

1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.

4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".

5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budape...ity_Assurances

[TherapyforGlencross]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/23/u...o-ukraine.html

WASHINGTON — President Biden is considering deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, an expansion of American military involvement amid mounting fears of a Russian incursion into Ukraine, according to administration officials.

The move would signal a major pivot for the Biden administration, which up until recently was taking a restrained stance on Ukraine, out of fear of provoking Russia into invading. But as President Vladimir V. Putin has ramped up his threatening actions toward Ukraine, and talks between American and Russian officials have failed to discourage him, the administration is now moving away from its do-not-provoke strategy.

[Locke]

Sounds like this is kicking off.

I really wonder what might happen here.

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't know if its started. I mean the problem now is that both sides are going to start pouring more forces into the area. Naval, Air and ground Forces in close proximity. Mistakes can start to happen and who knows where they leads.


In other news, the American's have ordered non essential embassy members in the Ukraine to leave.

[Snuffleupagus]

I think this is just a crazy Putin test to see if Biden is as soft as Obama.

[JoseCuervo]

From Twitter :

On Putin, Olympics and invasions

2008: On the 1st day of the Beijing Olympics, Russia invade Georgia

2014: At the end of the Sochi Olympics: annexation of the Crimea begins

2022: The last day of the Beijing Olympics is Feb20 - the last day of Russian-Belarusian exercise.

[calculoso]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world...abi/ar-AAT4xoD

Provided by The Canadian Press
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United Arab Emirates and the U.S. military intercepted two ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels over the skies of Abu Dhabi early Monday, authorities said, the second attack in a week that targeted the Emirati capital.

The missile fire further escalates tensions across the Persian Gulf, which previously had seen a series of assaults near — but never indisputably on — Emirati soil. It comes during Yemen's yearslong war and the collapse of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers. American troops at Al-Dhafra Air Base in the capital took shelter in bunkers during the attack and fired back with their own Patriot missiles.

The attacks threaten the business-friendly, tourism-focused efforts of the Emirates, a federation of seven sheikhdoms on the Arabian Peninsula also home to Dubai. For years, the country has marketed itself as a safe corner of an otherwise-dangerous neighborhood.

[CaptainCrunch]

Its funny how tensions are escalating right now. We have the Ukraine. Japan actively complaining about another Chinese aircraft incursion, missiles in the UAE.



Its almost like there's a concerted effort to hard test Biden and his resolve.



I still think we're not going to get a for real shooting war in the Ukraine, the cost would be extremely high on all sides.

[JoseCuervo]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Its funny how tensions are escalating right now. We have the Ukraine. Japan actively complaining about another Chinese aircraft incursion, missiles in the UAE.



Its almost like there's a concerted effort to hard test Biden and his resolve.



I still think we're not going to get a for real shooting war in the Ukraine, the cost would be extremely high on all sides.

I really hope you are right about Ukraine, but I just can’t see Putin backing down now. It's sad, none of the countries currently under Putins control like Belarus and now Kazakhstan want anything to do with Putin (the actual citizens), but he has been able to maintain an iron grip. I hope Ukraine doesn’t become like that again, after they fought so hard in 2013-2014 to get rid of him.

[Monahammer]

Even if they're not intentionally coordinating their timing, it would only make sense for powers opposed to the United States in varying arenas to all test those strengths at once. That way they all have the best chance of succeeding in their various goals.

Iran-China-Russia forms an interesting power dynamic. The goals are not all aligned but probably enough are for the immediate future if things start to get violent.

[Azure]

This isn't just about Biden's resolve, though one does wonder why Putin is pushing this hard 1 year into his Presidency.

But this is also about Europe in general, most notably big players like France, UK & Germany.

Pathetic watching Germany bumble like the idiots they are knowing Putin owns them with their gas supplies. Guess they shouldn't have shut all their nuclear reactors down.

Winter is here and they can't heat their homes with natural gas.

Imagine being able to supply the world with clean natural gas. Canada deserves a lot of criticism here, because our inability to be world leaders on the energy front gives despots like Putin more power.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I still think we're not going to get a for real shooting war in the Ukraine, the cost would be extremely high on all sides.

Well there has been a "real shooting war" going on since what 2015? But I get your point.

I don't think we will see openly Russian boots on the ground. I do expect the "rebels" to expand their activities with support from Russia and maybe some "little green men" to steal the Crimean phrase.

But will we see Russian Flagged units rolling across the border, no I don't think so.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Azure

This isn't just about Biden's resolve, though one does wonder why Putin is pushing this hard 1 year into his Presidency.

But this is also about Europe in general, most notably big players like France, UK & Germany.

Pathetic watching Germany bumble like the idiots they are knowing Putin owns them with their gas supplies. Guess they shouldn't have shut all their nuclear reactors down.

Winter is here and they can't heat their homes with natural gas.

Imagine being able to supply the world with clean natural gas. Canada deserves a lot of criticism here, because our inability to be world leaders on the energy front gives despots like Putin more power.

I honest to goodness think they are afraid of the optics of having German troops/equipment in Eastern Europe. They know it's the right thing to do, but as a collective, they sometimes can't get over things - rightly or wrongly.

[undercoverbrother]

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I honest to goodness think they are afraid of the optics of having German troops/equipment in Eastern Europe. They know it's the right thing to do, but as a collective, they sometimes can't get over things - rightly or wrongly.

That may be true, but it doesn't excuse them from bumbling their own energy needs so badly. Being reliant on Russia to not freeze to death is also kind of bad optics.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That may be true, but it doesn't excuse them from bumbling their own energy needs so badly. Being reliant on Russia to not freeze to death is also kind of bad optics.

Okay, being reliant on Russia is bad news....but more than half our country is reliant on Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

The Germans...they're the Canary in the Coal Mine. Thats what happens when you make decisions based on optics and hesitance as opposed to doing what you know to be the more intelligent move.

They shut down coal usage which was good, but when people bitched about Nuclear they shut that down and thats why they're reliant on Russian gas.

Its strange to say....but they should be more like the French.

"You dont like Nuclear? We dont care what you like or dont like, we're going to do it anyways. And now partly just to piss you off."

[CaptainCrunch]

Yup, in Germany's rush on the whole renewables clean energy front without thinking it through and listening on Nuclear Energy has compromised their foreign policy and put themselves at the mercy of the Russians.


I said years ago that Canada should be absolutely opening up their ability to export energy like Oil and Gas and Natural Gas and taking market share from the middle East and Russia and despotic states, instead we surrendered it and put these nations in a really good strategic position.


Just like Canada and the world allowing China to move on cornering the market on rare earth metals that are needed for renewables and EVs, we're going to pay for that in a big way as well.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I honest to goodness think they are afraid of the optics of having German troops/equipment in Eastern Europe. They know it's the right thing to do, but as a collective, they sometimes can't get over things - rightly or wrongly.

That’s part of it and probably can’t be understated, but Germany is also already bearing a disproportionately high cost for the refugee crisis caused by wars that were not theirs. I can’t blame them for being apprehensive about escalating things with Russia.

One German analyst I listened to yesterday also made a good point that unless NATO at least matched the number of Russian available troops and weaponry in Ukraine, then Ukraine loses no matter what. You can give them weapons, but eventually they won’t have the personnel to outlast Russia in a war. In the event Russia overthrows Ukraine, all the weapons you give then will just fall into Russian hands like a gift to them.

There’re really no halfway measures that work here. If you aren’t ready to commit to a full scale war with Russia, then it might be better to not do anything that just prolongs the war. 16,000 killed since 2014 already. At some point you have to either cut your losses or go all in. I think Germany is staring to go with the first option and the other sides haven’t committed to either direction.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Yup, in Germany's rush on the whole renewables clean energy front without thinking it through and listening on Nuclear Energy has compromised their foreign policy and put themselves at the mercy of the Russians.


I said years ago that Canada should be absolutely opening up their ability to export energy like Oil and Gas and Natural Gas and taking market share from the middle East and Russia and despotic states, instead we surrendered it and put these nations in a really good strategic position.


Just like Canada and the world allowing China to move on cornering the market on rare earth metals that are needed for renewables and EVs, we're going to pay for that in a big way as well.

I'm all for action on climate change, but if you look at the attempts so far, there was clearly full on manipulation by Russia hidden in the details. Under Kyoto, the USA, and any country with an expanding population, would have been buying "carbon credits" from Russia/China in order to keep operating. China had no restrictions under Kyoto and Russia had a vast surplus of carbon credits.

[TherapyforGlencross]

Pentagon saying 8,500 troops on alert for deployment to Eastern Europe.