The Legend of Sam Bennett

[Camronius]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

I thought it was a terrible deal at the time as did many others. Consensus is subjective i guess. I know what you are meaning....lots liked it. But a lot didn't.

Well I mean you've got to add some context to that too. Good in the sense that things had gone south between the player and the team, the player was poorly managed here and his contract was expiring. Given all of that, the return was good.

The problem is people are mixing arguments, adding in hindsight and ignoring that Calgary and the player poorly mismanaged his time in Calgary. Unfortunately that was his value at the time, and it was good value. If we want to argue his value dropped because of the situation created by the team and player, that's a separate argument (and clearly you're right because he's demonstrating it now). The situation to that point in time butchered his value, plain and simple.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Let check some actual stats.

Monahan with/Lewis

41.0 xGF%
1.8 xGF per 60
2.59 xGA per 60

Monahan without Lewis

53.9% xGF%
2.65 xGF per 60
2.27 xGA per 60

If you isolate his time spent away from Lewis he would rank:

xGF%: 7th (between Dube and Coleman)
xGF per 60: 8th (between Coleman and Backlund)
xGA per 60: 3rd (between Lindholm and Mangiapane)

So he's acutally been pretty decent overall way from Lewis, and his xGA rates are actually really strong when not on the ice with Lewis.

I know people will see what they want, but Monahan has been quietly reliable in his own end so far this year.

Like some of the other forwards (Monahan, Coleman, Backlund) their on ice shooting percentage has been really really low and that's hurt production. And a PDO of .974 is also really low overall.

This is what I thought. And I actually quite like Lewis as a 4th liner. But he and Monahan are a bad fit and Richardson is not impressive at all to me.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's not about the time of the trade to be honest. I know what you're talking about because I made a similar post looking at Bennett's iXG and chance numbers that off-season. I think we were in agreement that Bennett was generating a lot of individual scoring chances at that time and deserved more of a shot in our top 6.

Bennett led the Flames in individual expected goals per 60 in 17-18, and individual high danger chances. While dragging Brouwer/Janko around the ice.

But Bennett wasn't the guy he was in 17-18 in 20-21.

For me it's comparing Lindholms last three seasons before the trade from Carolina to Bennett's last three seasons in Calgary.

Lindholm:
15-16 to 17-18

GP: 235
TOI: 13:32
xGF%: 52.3%
Goals : 22 (0.09)
Points: 74 (0.31)
Individual xG per 60: 0.65
On ice shooting percentage: 6.48%
Individual shooting percentage: 6.13%

Bennett:
18-19 to 20-21

GP: 161
TOI: 11:27
xGF%: 51.9%
Goals : 21 (0.13)
Points: 44 (0.27)
Individual xG per 60: 0.79
On ice shooting percentage: 7.18%
Individual shooting percentage: 9.13%

At 5v5 Bennett has always been great at generating scoring chances, but Lindholm was probably the better overall player in terms of defensive impacts and points.

Overall though I think the point stands that at the time of trades they are the closest comparables I can think of.

Both guys were limited by poor on-ice and individual shooting percentages. And both guys took off once they got placed on a line with some chemistry that allowed those percentages to correct.

Lindholm had the better counting numbers (that could have all been opportunity) but Bennett was also coming off a very poor 19-20 regular season where he just wasn't himself and based on some models was one of the Flames worst regular forwards that season. (GSVA had him a -0.1 impact that season)..

That bolded is an understatement even before looking at the two minutes of less ice time crossed with 74 fewer games while comparing counting stat totals (seriously..?)

First of all Lindholm's "production" in Carolina was largely secondary assists. Bennett's lack of production over that period was largely... a lack of secondary assists. Secondary assists are a stat full of noise.

Second, while on-ice SH% is an important stat, it includes individual SH% as part of its makeup. The numbers you posted show Bennett's iSH% was skewing his oiSH% upwards whereas Lindholm's iSH% was skewing his oiSH% downwards. See the issue?

As a Hurricane, Lindholm largely played on lines centered by Jordan Staal, and the left winger was typically Jeff Skinner or Sebastian Aho, with the occasional helping of Teuvo Teravainen. You are basically comparing Staal versus Jankowski. And Sebastian Aho, a guy who has developed into a top five NHL centre... to the likes of Tobias Rieder, Joakim Nordstrom, and the corpse of James Neal.

And Lindholm was never asked to play left wing, whereas Bennett's only top six stints came on his off wing.

Finally, Geoff Ward's systems were a disaster for the entire Flames team. Lindholm in Carolina played for a possession coach in Bill Peters. Geoff Ward was.. not a possession coach.

As for the other claims (defensive play") there's a lot of problematic claims being throw around, and zone starts are being referenced. I see nothing to actually support this assertion, considering a lot of context is missing. Both are strong defensive centres in my eye. Bennett's defensive numbers have only ever looked poor when playing on an inferior centre's wing.

While Lindholm blew up on Calgary, he went from good opportunity to great opportunity.

Bennett went from no opportunity to great opportunity*

*Although since Huberdeau and Barkov shoot left, he still doesn't have a PP1 role. Lindholm being a right shot cemented him an opportunity on PP1 that only he has.

[SuperMatt18]

Honestly I'm not even really sure what we are arguing here because we were mostly in agreement that Bennett was better than given credit for in Calgary, was misused, and deserved more of an opportunity.

Also I don't think it's a stretch to say Lindholm was better / higher valued player at the time of the trade. Whether it's driven by usage, opportunity, etc counting stats still matter.

Considering how both guys blew up when leaving their former teams I'm not sure it's safe to say Lindholm was getting amazing opportunities on their old teams.

I'd prefer if we had both Lindholm and Bennett right now...unfortunately Geoff Ward's stupidity at the start of the 20-21 season (and Bennett's overall mismanagment by team his entire career here) didn't allow that to happen.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Honestly I'm not even really sure what we are arguing here

I suppose what I am arguing, is that if Bennett were afforded the opportunity here that Lindholm were afforded in Carolina (which may even have been something as straightforward as a Mangiapane - Bennett second line pairing, maybe with a Dube or Lucic on the opposite wing) then the return for Bennett would have been a lot more fair, even if he did blow up in Florida as Lindholm did here.

heck, they could even have tried to spread out the talent more sensibly without handing a top line role on a silver platter:

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Leivo
Tkachuk - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Bennett - Mangiapane
Nordstrom - Ryan - Ritchie

not saying that's some elite top 12, but at least you're putting the players in a position to succeed.

We saw what Bennett could do in the top six on his strong side, way back in his rookie year.

We saw what Bennett could do at centre, once removed from Brouwer, in his sophomore year, and then again in 2020 during the bubble.

yet the only so-called opportunity he got here in the top six was on his offwing on a line centred by a hobbled Monahan

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Nah, this just isn't true. The stats show he's been pretty effective with various combinations outside of Richardson/Lewis.

His even strength scoring equal to Lewis? Maybe that's because he's mostly been playing with Lewis. Same goes for goals allowed. Put a guy with plugs and his defensive stats are going to suffer. Have a look at Monahan's defensive stats outside of the line.

I'm not saying it's unfair to be critical. It's those particular criticisms that are unfair.

So, with the idea that they’re even close to begin when Lewis gets zero shifts with Gaudreau or other skilled players, what does that say? Then you throw in the salary and it’s a complete joke. It doesn’t even have to be Lewis, we could compare Monahan to anyone else.

I would think your career is in quite the conundrum when replacement level players are looking pretty comparable to you. This team will be taking a bath on the 7th year of that contract. Whether it ends up as a buyout or the loss of a significant asset remains to be seen. It’s too bad because Brouwer’s buyout finally ended this year, thought the Flames might actually have the full salary cap to work with this season.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

So, with the idea that they’re even close to begin when Lewis gets zero shifts with Gaudreau or other skilled players, what does that say?

Are you saying that Lewis would be on a 40-point pace if he was getting Monahan's shifts on PP1? The two aren't equivalent players in any respect, so it actually says nothing.

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I would think your career is in quite the conundrum when replacement level players are looking pretty comparable to you.

We've seen the Flames play replacement-level players further up the lineup. They accomplished approximately nothing – see Ritchie on Gaudreau's line last season, or Pitlick on Backlund's line this season. If Monahan were comparable to those players, he would be just as bad when moved off the 4th line. But that isn't what is happening, as many posters have demonstrated statistically.

It may indeed be that Monahan is nothing more than a power-play specialist now. But the players you're comparing him to aren't even that, and never have been.

[SuperMatt18]

I think If they handled Bennett right here he’s probably not even traded TBH. I’ve said for a long time that Tkachuk-Bennett should have been paired together, and the lines in 16-17 should have been:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Ferland
Tkachuk - Bennett - Versteeg
Frolik - Backlund - Brouwer
Bouma - Stajan - Chiasson

I do get why they tried to have Brouwer and Versteeg as Bennett’s wingers, two veteran guys that were supposed to help him. But when that didn’t work the answer should not have been moving him to wing.

And it’s tough to say what happens in Carolina. Aho-Staal-Lindholm did play together at times, but all three were natural centers. Bennett did have time with Tkachuk and Backlund / Gaudreau-Monahan too and while he looked better than he did on the third line it wasn’t lights out.

I think Bennett really challenges the tale that “You can never have too many centers, they can just shift to wing” . Lots of guys can’t just shift to wing and still be as effective, Bennett, Backlund, and Lindholm all look to be guys more effective in the middle.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

So, with the idea that they’re even close to begin when Lewis gets zero shifts with Gaudreau or other skilled players, what does that say? Then you throw in the salary and it’s a complete joke. It doesn’t even have to be Lewis, we could compare Monahan to anyone else.

I would think your career is in quite the conundrum when replacement level players are looking pretty comparable to you. This team will be taking a bath on the 7th year of that contract. Whether it ends up as a buyout or the loss of a significant asset remains to be seen. It’s too bad because Brouwer’s buyout finally ended this year, thought the Flames might actually have the full salary cap to work with this season.

Quick question, did you like Monahan’s game last night?

He was a huge part of the Flames embarrassing the best team in the NHL.

He’s recovering from a lot of pretty serious injuries. Didn’t look like a replacement player, last night, to me.

How about you hold your horses and let’s see how it goes?

Maybe, have a hot bath and relax.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Let check some actual stats.

Monahan with/Lewis

41.0 xGF%
1.8 xGF per 60
2.59 xGA per 60

Monahan without Lewis

53.9% xGF%
2.65 xGF per 60
2.27 xGA per 60

If you isolate his time spent away from Lewis he would rank:

xGF%: 7th (between Dube and Coleman)
xGF per 60: 8th (between Coleman and Backlund)
xGA per 60: 3rd (between Lindholm and Mangiapane)

So he's acutally been pretty decent overall way from Lewis, and his xGA rates are actually really strong when not on the ice with Lewis.

I know people will see what they want, but Monahan has been quietly reliable in his own end so far this year.

Like some of the other forwards (Monahan, Coleman, Backlund) their on ice shooting percentage has been really really low and that's hurt production. And a PDO of .974 is also really low overall.

You could wait an eternity because Monahan’s shooting% will never be back to where it was. The law of averages won’t be in his favor because he can’t do it without full minutes with #13. Darryl has thrown Monahan a bone with powerplay time and shifts with his old pal, but his days of 30 goals here are over.

The advanced stats may indicate that he’s due to break out or whatever, but from what I’ve seen from him this season, he’s a complete non-threat out there offensively. Shots from the outside, deflected out of play, easy saves for the goaltender and etc.

I’ll give him this, he’ll make a surprisingly nice passing play at times. But generally speaking, he’s no threat of scoring. It’s not bad luck here, I’ve seen it for a long time now. He just simply lacks the weapons to execute when he’s not with Gaudreau.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

You could wait an eternity because Monahan’s shooting% will never be back to where it was.

You read statistics about on-ice shooting percentage and then base your rebuttal on Monahan's personal shooting percentage? Two different numbers, two different things. Your rebuttal is irrelevant to the point being addressed.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Are you saying that Lewis would be on a 40-point pace if he was getting Monahan's shifts on PP1? The two aren't equivalent players in any respect, so it actually says nothing.



We've seen the Flames play replacement-level players further up the lineup. They accomplished approximately nothing – see Ritchie on Gaudreau's line last season, or Pitlick on Backlund's line this season. If Monahan were comparable to those players, he would be just as bad when moved off the 4th line. But that isn't what is happening, as many posters have demonstrated statistically.

It may indeed be that Monahan is nothing more than a power-play specialist now. But the players you're comparing him to aren't even that, and never have been.

No, what I question is why Lewis and Monahan are even remotely close in even strength points. One player is exclusively a 4th liner and gets no shifts with skilled players to pad his points at 5 on 5 totals.

People can blame Darryl for usage all they want, but there’s a reason he’s in the bottom 6, his play warrants it. I haven’t liked his defensive play all season long and the more ice time he gets, the more of a liability he looks. This isn’t just about Lewis vs Monahan here, he’s played with lots of different skaters this season and where’s the production been?

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You read statistics about on-ice shooting percentage and then base your rebuttal on Monahan's personal shooting percentage? Two different numbers, two different things. Your rebuttal is irrelevant to the point being addressed.

Well then by all means, I’d like to hear your brilliant take on why Monahan’s goal scoring ability has cratered straight into the ground?

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by timbit

Quick question, did you like Monahan’s game last night?

He was a huge part of the Flames embarrassing the best team in the NHL.

He’s recovering from a lot of pretty serious injuries. Didn’t look like a replacement player, last night, to me.

How about you hold your horses and let’s see how it goes?

Maybe, have a hot bath and relax.

Yeah, he was good last night, one of his more memorable games. But again, it was a 4 point now from Gaudreau here. This is now 18 of 18 wins in which the team has relied on the top line/#13 to produce in order to win. My main criticism for Monahan is about secondary scoring. When the top line is shut down, the Flames lose. That’s been the story this season. So the criticism levied towards Backlund or Monahan & etc is more than fair and Monahan in my opinion has been the biggest culprit due to lack of production, contract, defensive play, etc etc.

In regards to your other point, I’ve heard this all season, how many games and how much time does he need here? I heard 10 games, then I heard a month. Now we’re months in and half the season gone with tons of time for him to heal up. This is all predicated on those who believe that his injuries have anything to do with his downfall which I don’t believe is the case and ’ve already expressed that in the past ad nauseam.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

No, what I question is why Lewis and Monahan are even remotely close in even strength points. One player is exclusively a 4th liner and gets no shifts with skilled players to pad his points at 5 on 5 totals.

People can blame Darryl for usage all they want, but there’s a reason he’s in the bottom 6, his play warrants it. I haven’t liked his defensive play all season long and the more ice time he gets, the more of a liability he looks. This isn’t just about Lewis vs Monahan here, he’s played with lots of different skaters this season and where’s the production been?

He hasn’t played consistently with anyone and has almost no time with Gaudreau or Tkachuk (and no time with Lindholm or Backlund) and the stats say whenever he plays with anyone outside of the Lewis he’s not a liability defensively at all. The only non-Lewis combo that is below 50% is the 2% of the time he played with Mangiapane and Gaudreau (which I can’t even recall since it was 2-3 shifts).

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/...s/sean-monahan

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think If they handled Bennett right here he’s probably not even traded TBH. I’ve said for a long time that Tkachuk-Bennett should have been paired together, and the lines in 16-17 should have been:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Ferland
Tkachuk - Bennett - Versteeg
Frolik - Backlund - Brouwer
Bouma - Stajan - Chiasson

With no 3M line in 2016-17, the Flames almost certainly miss the playoffs. I don't blame them for not putting Bennett in a top-six role because I can almost guarantee he would've been a downgrade from Backlund in that spot.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

With no 3M line in 2016-17, the Flames almost certainly miss the playoffs. I don't blame them for not putting Bennett in a top-six role because I can almost guarantee he would've been a downgrade from Backlund in that spot.

Such a reductionist take, though it's consistent with your anti-Bennett narrative.

Versteeg-x-Brouwer was one of the worst lines that team had all year. Whether Monahan or Bennett was the centre, they were a possession black hole because neither winger played with pace. Tkachuk-Backlund-Brouwer was also a line that simply never worked that year due to a lack of footspeed on the wing (rookie Tkachuk was even slower).

But Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer was one of the very few combinations that actually could have worked on paper to give this team a legit 3rd line. For all the flack Brouwer deserved, he still had hands that year and was playing at the same basic level as he had the year prior, when on the Blues' third line with Fabbri and Stastny he had had offensive success en route to the WCF. In a checking role, Frolik and Backlund could have carried Brouwer, and with more actual puck possession on his line, sophomore Bennett probably outproduces his rookie year numbers (don't forget, for the first half of that season Bennett was actually on pace to do so).

Either way, the key to making the playoffs that year was replacing Wideman with Stone. They were sitting outside of a playoff spot even with 3M because the bottom defense pairs and bottom six were a mess. Splitting up Versteeg and Brouwer, instead of having a 'leftovers' 3rd line.

Replacing 27pt Bennett with a 50pt Bennett, while replacing 50pt Backlund with a 40pt Backlund, would have been far more optimal.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

With no 3M line in 2016-17, the Flames almost certainly miss the playoffs. I don't blame them for not putting Bennett in a top-six role because I can almost guarantee he would've been a downgrade from Backlund in that spot.

How many playoff games did they win in 16/17?

Maybe if they miss Trelviing doesn’t go spend stupid assets on a very mediocre player in Hamonic?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

With no 3M line in 2016-17, the Flames almost certainly miss the playoffs. I don't blame them for not putting Bennett in a top-six role because I can almost guarantee he would've been a downgrade from Backlund in that spot.

That could have been the best thing to happen to this franchise.

No Hamonic trade.

They probably still spend a 2nd on Lazar, but maybe they hold onto the 3rd used for Stone (the pick that became future Oilers-reclamation project Stuart Skinner).

Maybe they pursue a longer term solution in net instead of wasting more assets on Smith.

Maybe they fetch some mid-round picks for Engelland/Chiasson/Bouma/Elliott?

2017 is looking like a pretty underwhelming draft...but it was also the year of the crazy lottery where NJ jumped from 6OA to 1; PHI from 13 to 2, and DAL from 8 to 3. Maybe we 'luck' into Patrick...or maybe Heiskanen/Makar! Or even if we're picking a bit higher than 16 we land Necas or Suzuki.

And yes, maybe they prioritize proper development for Bennett and Monahan (still only 22 that year)

[dino7c]

We are getting into hindsight logic...every team that didn't win the cup should have tanked all those years in hindsight. They would have been better for it.

It's sports, teams should try and win