Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Why are you asking if Johnny is taking less than market value? Attempt to move the goalposts? Never once said he needed to sign a discount here. In the post of line you quoted I stated a Flames offer of 9.5M over 8 years would need another team to come in at 10.8M per to match the total $.

Pretty much everything you posted is an assumption. Here are some of mine

1. I believe Johnny when he says he wants to play his career here and he loves it here
2. I believe Gaudreau and his family have been treated extremely well and I believe they have loyalty and gratitude toward the organization for drafting him
3. I do not believe Johnny will just chase the cash so I do not see Seattle, or Arizona as a legit contender to get him nor would either franchise commit $11M+ long term for him
4. Maybe Johnny does plan to rest the market but that doesn’t mean he won’t do exactly what Landeskog did and sign an 8 year deal on the eve of free agency while he still can.
5. For all we know they have a framework figured out and are bickering over bonuses, clauses, and the finer points.

You really believe Johnny wants to sign here as his first priority but the Flames are low balling him so that's why the deal isn't done yet? Because that's pretty much what we know happened in Colorado with Landeskog. I don't see the situations being the same at all. One guy was willing to take a paycut to stay. That shows how much he wanted to be there. That in itself makes the situations very different.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Hackey

You really believe Johnny wants to sign here as his first priority but the Flames are low balling him so that's why the deal isn't done yet? Because that's pretty much what we know happened in Colorado with Landeskog. I don't see the situations being the same at all. One guy was willing to take a paycut to stay. That shows how much he wanted to be there. That in itself makes the situations very different.

I don’t believe your first statement no as I have no idea where the negotiation is at. Landeskog is an example of a player who signed an 8 year deal right before He went UFA. Don’t fixate on him let’s use a new example. Nuge also waited until after the season to sign when he was close to testing free agency. Why didn’t he sign that deal earlier? I bet it was on the table.

What you are fixating on with Landeskog is not even the point I was initially trying to make which is frustrating. Just because Johnny hasn’t signed a deal now doesn’t mean he won’t later and doesn’t mean it needs to be $11M per now to make it happen

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

So for next year if we can dump these UFAs:

Pitlick - $1.75M
Zadorov - $3.75M
Gudbrandson - $1.95M

That's $7.45M there to play with and maybe give $4-$5M to Gaudreau and use the rest for Vallimaki and plugs.

Can we then wait for Monahan's $6.375M and Lucic's $5.25M to expire after next year to sign Tkachuk after his RFA? That's $11.625M in cap that comes back after Monahan and Lucic come off the books.

You can wait for sure, but then Tkachuk is in the same spot as Gaudreau now, where it would be odd to not test the market and see what the whole league will pay you.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t believe your first statement no as I have no idea where the negotiation is at. Landeskog is an example of a player who signed an 8 year deal right before He went UFA. Don’t fixate on him let’s use a new example. Nuge also waited until after the season to sign when he was close to testing free agency. Why didn’t he sign that deal earlier? I bet it was on the table.

What you are fixating on with Landeskog is not even the point I was initially trying to make which is frustrating. Just because Johnny hasn’t signed a deal now doesn’t mean he won’t later and doesn’t mean it needs to be $11M per now to make it happen

I'm "fixated" on Landeskog because that was the example you used. Which I think is a poor example. Nuge would be a better example but he's also a secondary player who likely never had the demand and offers Johnny will. Doesn't mean Johnny won't sign but I think he's in a much different situation than both of those players.

[jayswin]

Johnny is in an incredible position. He's on pace for almost 100 points this season. As we get closer to FA, the media will start talking non stop about him being the premier UFA and it will be on.

He was wise to put himself in this position. Brad's moves were to convince him to sign before his final season or make a trade so the franchise doesn't lose an all star asset for nothing. Unfortunately for us it looks like we may end this current build/core with the loss of Gaudreau. But good for him, he used the contract perfectly and is performing in a way that will have the top half of the league scrambling to see what they can do to fit his cap in.

[jayswin]

In this position of losing our best core player on a team with very few star core players I'd take our strength of being his current team and pay him up to $11m per season, personally. (We're past getting a home team contract, and into 'could we get him to sign here for max value over any other team because he plays and lives here' territory.

It sucks and means no Tkachuck, but with Matthew we can at least get something significant back to contribute to the team, rather than losing him for nothing. Losing Johnny and signing Tkachuk has us as a pretty weak hockey team going forward.

[Erick Estrada]

Not sure how many were listening to 960 this morning but Al Morganti was on discussing the Flyers disaster of a season to date and Clarke's comments regarding Hextall. He feels they will be big game hunting in the offseason for an "electrifying" player with Giroux's $8.2 million coming off the books. He said that he thinks they will be investigating Gaudreau and it's a real possibility.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Not sure how many were listening to 960 this morning but Al Morganti was on discussing the Flyers disaster of a season to date and Clarke's comments regarding Hextall. He feels they will be big game hunting in the offseason for an "electrifying" player with Giroux's $8.2 million coming off the books. He said that he thinks they will be investigating Gaudreau and it's a real possibility.

If Johnny wants to go home that makes some sense but Philly looks a lot closer to being on the brink of a rebuild than anything else. Morganti also pointed to the sharp decline of players like Hayes (slow and injured) and a really bad season from Couturier impacting the flyers.

Does going home trump loyalty and comfort of the team that drafted him. You could argue neither team has the brightest of futures.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If Johnny wants to go home that makes some sense but Philly looks a lot closer to being on the brink of a rebuild than anything else. Morganti also pointed to the sharp decline of players like Hayes (slow and injured) and a really bad season from Couturier impacting the flyers.

Does going home trump loyalty and comfort of the team that drafted him. You could argue neither team has the brightest of futures.

The trump is neither going home nor loyalty to his drafting team. The trump is dollars.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

If Johnny wants to go home that makes some sense but Philly looks a lot closer to being on the brink of a rebuild than anything else. Morganti also pointed to the sharp decline of players like Hayes (slow and injured) and a really bad season from Couturier impacting the flyers.

Does going home trump loyalty and comfort of the team that drafted him. You could argue neither team has the brightest of futures.

The reality is that money will dictate and the Flyers have had no issues overpaying free agents. I think being close to home would trump winning as it can't be understated how much less eastern teams spend in planes and Johnny hates flying. I can't see Gaudreau signing in say Colorado if the Flyers were offering the same money.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The trump is neither going home nor loyalty to his drafting team. The trump is dollars.

I don’t know about that. I think both teams offer top money

[traptor]

If Philly wants Gaudreau they can make a pretty strong offer and I think it's a toss up if he re-signs here or there.

JG seems like a big family guy and his dad was having health problems. When my parents started "getting old" and having fairly serious health problems, I wanted to spend more time with them. If I was in another country across the continent I would probably try and move closer to them if the opportunity presented itself.
I'm pretty sure JG is close friends with Haye's too? Add in that is girlfriend is also from the area and that Philly has the cap space...

I don't think Philly will rebuild. They're actually a fairly similar team to Calgary. They're a middling team but have some good players going into their primes.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by traptor

If Philly wants Gaudreau they can make a pretty strong offer and I think it's a toss up if he re-signs here or there.

JG seems like a big family guy and his dad was having health problems. When my parents started "getting old" and having fairly serious health problems, I wanted to spend more time with them. If I was in another country across the continent I would probably try and move closer to them if the opportunity presented itself.
I'm pretty sure JG is close friends with Haye's too? Add in that is girlfriend is also from the area and that Philly has the cap space...

I don't think Philly will rebuild. They're actually a fairly similar team to Calgary. They're a middling team but have some good players going into their primes.

I guess Philly has players that could be better.

Morganti was lamenting the lack of development from both Sanheim and Provorov stating that Provorov always needs to be carried by a partner. Niskanen was talked about like a HOF player because he seemed to be able to carry Provorov and Ellis has been hurt too much to help.

Couturier is the same age as Johnny so both close to entering their 30’s. Ellis and Hayes are there and have fat contracts with a lot of years left. Farabee and Konecny are nice enough players but no better than Mangiapane and Tkachuk Carter Hart has been good sometimes.

Morganti was saying that Giroux even at 33 is the best player on that team.

But Family, Friends and less travel could be enough to sway him to come here.


I also think the Devils are a serious player with their cap space and young talent they can sell Johnny on

[activeStick]

Another key point mentioned by Morganti was that the Flyers historically have gone out and signed the big name which may be the wrong approach and that a patient rebuild may make more sense given the lack of success with their usual methods.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don’t know about that. I think both teams offer top money

If you’re referring to a max contract, I highly doubt that. That’s what - $16M/year?

Short of that, each team has its own financial and cap constraints, so the offers will be different. Plus, are you talking total contract value or AAV, because the Flames can offer 8 years and Philly only 7.

[GioforPM]

I doubt Philly is rebuilding. But I also doubt they are contending any time soon. Hell, they still need a decent coach and are currently paying Vigneault $5M until 2024. I doubt they think Yeo is the long term answer.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If you’re referring to a max contract, I highly doubt that. That’s what - $16M/year?

Short of that, each team has its own financial and cap constraints, so the offers will be different. Plus, are you talking total contract value or AAV, because the Flames can offer 8 years and Philly only 7.

I am saying the Flames likely offer something in the 8x10 range and Philly might come in around 7x11. Neither team is going to low ball Johnny he will get a $70+M contract either way.

Calgary with the advantage of offering the 8th year

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I am saying the Flames likely offer something in the 8x10 range and Philly might come in around 7x11. Neither team is going to low ball Johnny he will get a $70+M contract either way.

Calgary with the advantage of offering the 8th year

I wasn’t suggesting anyone would lowball. But there will be a highest bidder. And surprisingly, even the $3M dollar difference in your example makes a difference, especially when you consider there’s a danger of a buyout the longer the contract goes. Taxes may influence it as well. Someone like Vegas or one of the other tax friendly jurisdictions may come out of the woodwork.

[Vinny01]

I am not of the opinion that the team that offers the most money will get Johnny. Everyone is going to be in a similar ballpark so it will come down to some of his most important factors. Philly, Jersey, and Calgary all will want him and I think all will have reasons he wants to sign with each team and reasons he won’t.

I have a feeling if Johnny signs now it will be like Landeskog, Tavares, Stamkos where he at least talks to other teams. We will see if he stays or goes but if he stays Calgary will not be getting a discount.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I also think the Devils are a serious player with their cap space and young talent they can sell Johnny on

I've been saying for a while the Devils are a team to watch for as they can can pay him $9+ million no problem. After a disappointing season the Islanders could be a player for him as Gaudreau and Barzal on a line would be fun to watch.