[PGT] Lightning 4 Flames 1

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Okay, let’s look at only the last 5 years.

Tampa -> Stamkos, Hedman
Tampa -> Stamkos, Hedman
St. Louis -> Pietrangelo
Washington -> Ovechkin, Backstrom
Pittsburgh -> Crosby, Malkin, Fleury

Championship teams have at least one centre and/or defenceman drafted at the top of the draft.

Championships are won by teams with elite players. The Flames haven’t drafted anything close to an elite player since Tkachuk, and before that Gaudreau - unfortunately both are wingers.

If the goal is to win a Championship, the team needs to be rebuilt. They don’t have the pieces required to win, and they can’t acquire them (although Vegas seems to have done just fine on that front). The team is just doing what they always do - aggressively spend (and overspend) in free agency to try and patch together a team good enough to make playoffs (and they fail at that as often as they succeed), but nowhere near good enough to win a Championship.



Yes - you need to be a top tier team when it comes to drafting/management on-top of drafting elite talent at the top of the draft. That’s an absolute necessity. When you look at Buffalo and Edmonton, outside of drafting Eichel, McDavid, and Draisaitl those two teams have been complete garbage at drafting and managing their NHL rosters. As critical as I am of Tree, he runs the team generally pretty well and is able to pull NHL’ers from all over the draft - but he can’t overcome the lack of elite talent at the top of his roster.

Tampa -> Stamkos, Hedman - both players drafted before the draft lottery rules changed
St. Louis -> Pietrangelo - drafted before the draft lottery rules changed
Washington -> Ovechkin - illegal contract, Backstrom - illegal contract - All players drafted before draft lottery rules changed
Pittsburgh -> Crosby - illegal contract, Malkin, Fleury - All players drafted before draft lottery rules changed

None of your examples are teams that rebuilt since the 2012 lockout. Washington won 12 years after getting AO and Backstrom?

Tampa has done a ton since getting Hedman and Stamkos 12 or so years ago?

Pittsburgh drafted Crosby 17 years ago. They won 1 cup while Malkin and Staal were on ELC's and then it took years on a illegal deal win again.

Examples of rebuilds that happen during or after 2012.

Colorado - contender ( better win this year or next because Mackinnon is about to break the bank)
Toronto - maybe a contender
Florida - contender but also on the verge of cap hell
Edmonton - lol
Buffalo - time to rebuild again
Arizona - constant rebuild
NYR - not sure if it is really a rebuild as they were very luck to get Lafreniere so really 1 year of rebuilding to get Kakko
Chicago 2.0 - still rebuilding
LA 2.0 - still rebuilding


IMO long rebuilds are not the way to go. If needed a short retool works better. Most team that did the long rebuild wasted the ELC's of their stars and have been in cap hell since they had to resign these players. I'm not against tanking for a year to get a star but doing the 3-5 years in a row thing is no longer the model way to build a contender.

[sa226]

He's also said that there are many different ways to win in the NHL. You don't need to have the best collection of players (though it helps) you have to play the right way (cliche at this point)

[SuperMatt18]

I think Richardson is the one that probably needs to come out of the lineup. He's just not an NHLer at this stage and isn't really filling a role on this team.

He's not one of our PKers (8:45 all season), doesn't play Power play, and is a liability at 5v5.

His 37.6% xGF at 5v5 is by far the lowest on the team, and he's dragging down all the guys he plays with.

The next three lowest guys on the team in xGF are all being dragged down from their TOI with Richardson.

Lewis w/Richardson: 38.23% (146 Minutes)
Lewis w/o Richardson: 46.33% (207 Minutes)

Lucic w/Richardson: 33.5% (101 Minutes)
Lucic w/o Richardson: 52.4% (243 Minutes)

Monahan w/Richardson: 33.1% (46 Minutes)
Monahan w/o Richardson: 51.2% (322 Minutes)

Richardson is a black hole on this team right now, and any of Gawdin, Phillips, or Pelletier would be more deserving of his spot in the lineup.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Tampa -> Stamkos, Hedman - both players drafted before the draft lottery rules changed
St. Louis -> Pietrangelo - drafted before the draft lottery rules changed
Washington -> Ovechkin - illegal contract, Backstrom - illegal contract - All players drafted before draft lottery rules changed
Pittsburgh -> Crosby - illegal contract, Malkin, Fleury - All players drafted before draft lottery rules changed

None of your examples are teams that rebuilt since the 2012 lockout. Washington won 12 years after getting AO and Backstrom?

Tampa has done a ton since getting Hedman and Stamkos 12 or so years ago?

Pittsburgh drafted Crosby 17 years ago. They won 1 cup while Malkin and Staal were on ELC's and then it took years on a illegal deal win again.

Examples of rebuilds that happen during or after 2012.

Colorado - contender ( better win this year or next because Mackinnon is about to break the bank)
Toronto - maybe a contender
Florida - contender but also on the verge of cap hell
Edmonton - lol
Buffalo - time to rebuild again
Arizona - constant rebuild
NYR - not sure if it is really a rebuild as they were very luck to get Lafreniere so really 1 year of rebuilding to get Kakko
Chicago 2.0 - still rebuilding
LA 2.0 - still rebuilding


IMO long rebuilds are not the way to go. If needed a short retool works better. Most team that did the long rebuild wasted the ELC's of their stars and have been in cap hell since they had to resign these players. I'm not against tanking for a year to get a star but doing the 3-5 years in a row thing is no longer the model way to build a contender.

Yeah if you're rebuilding for a long time, you've done it wrong. You're likely not pulling players from throughout the draft, you've likely hired a bad coach, and you've likely signed some bad contracts while making some bad trades.

I'm not arguing for a "long rebuild" of years and years worth of tanking.

I listed the Champions, and Tampa is a good example of a modern rebuild. There is no bloody quick fix though. Tanking for two seasons (which is what I'd want to see) does not mean you're instantly a contender - but it does mean that if you did it right/timed it right, you've potentially acquired the foundation needed to be a Championship team - and then all the rest of the work begins.

"IMO long rebuilds are not the way to go. If needed a short retool works better."

So what are you talking about? What is a short retool - 2 years worth of tanking? Proactive management also helps keep the outright bad years to a minimum as you've (hopefully) sold off some players and gained additional prospects/picks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think Richardson is the one that probably needs to come out of the lineup. He's just not an NHLer at this stage and isn't really filling a role on this team.

He's not one of our PKers (8:45 all season), doesn't play Power play, and is a liability at 5v5.

His 37.6% xGF at 5v5 is by far the lowest on the team, and he's dragging down all the guys he plays with.

The next three lowest guys on the team in xGF are all being dragged down from their TOI with Richardson.

Lewis w/Richardson: 38.23% (146 Minutes)
Lewis w/o Richardson: 46.33% (207 Minutes)

Lucic w/Richardson: 33.5% (101 Minutes)
Lucic w/o Richardson: 52.4% (243 Minutes)

Monahan w/Richardson: 33.1% (46 Minutes)
Monahan w/o Richardson: 51.2% (322 Minutes)

Richardson is a black hole on this team right now, and any of Gawdin, Phillips, or Pelletier would be more deserving of his spot in the lineup.

Exactly.

He not Pitlick is the guy that needs to come out of the lineup permanently.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah if you're rebuilding for a long time, you've done it wrong. You're likely not pulling players from throughout the draft, you've likely hired a bad coach, and you've likely signed some bad contracts while making some bad trades.

I'm not arguing for a "long rebuild" of years and years worth of tanking.

I listed the Champions, and Tampa is a good example of a modern rebuild. There is no bloody quick fix though. Tanking for two seasons (which is what I'd want to see) does not mean you're instantly a contender - but it does mean that if you did it right/timed it right, you've potentially acquired the foundation needed to be a Championship team - and then all the rest of the work begins.

"IMO long rebuilds are not the way to go. If needed a short retool works better."

So what are you talking about? What is a short retool - 2 years worth of tanking? Proactive management also helps keep the outright bad years to a minimum as you've (hopefully) sold off some players and gained additional prospects/picks.

Probably 2 years max but the situation needs to present itself. I thought that happened last year and we didn’t take it. If the Flames decided to tank this season how does that work in a contract year for Johnny and Tkachuk? Trade Monahan and Backlund and go young probably leads to Gaudreau leaving. Gaudreau leaves Tkachuk is not resigning a good long term deal.

They needed to consider this last year but it’s hard to say that the player we could have drafted is any better than the one we got. Just didn’t seem like top heavy enough of a draft to make it worth it

This year does have players worth it but is it worth running Gaudreau and Tkachuk out of town for? What if we don’t get a top 3 pick? Losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk to go for a top 3 pick and get 8th or so is signing up for a long rebuild imo.

Last off season I was game but this year growth from Kylington and Mangiapane and seeing Pelletier and wolf tear up AHL I just see a reasonable chance to avoid the retool now than even this last off season. Monahan and lucic are almost up and they are not bringing $11.5 mil to the table. Just need to resign Gaudreau and Tkachuk. If they can’t I see the retool situation presenting itself again and it’s a must take but if they resigning it’s probably not in the cards and needed in the next 3 years

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

This sounds more likely the case. Needs his players to play a certain way and not fall into the other team's style of play.

Reminds of the Mark Twain quote, "Never argue with an idiot. They will pull you down to their level and beat you with experience."

The Flames need to drag teams like Tampa down to their level.

[Kipper_3434]

Biggest problem with the flames rebuild we just had is that we failed to gut the goaltending enough to finish last. If this team enters rebuild mode in the next couple seasons, Markstrom and vladar need too go, and wolf needs to stay in the ahl.

[TheSquatch]

There's no rebuild. This is it. We've seen it.

The mandate is to make the playoffs. Until that changes, they team is some version of what we are seeing here - some pretty good players, possibly one or two elite or close to that, but big positions missing year after year because the teams drafts at 15-20 not at 3.

So on the Flames go here, beating bad teams, beating some middling teams, and losing to the strongest teams when they bring the A game. Flames are a middling team trying to get better, just like every other middling team trying to get better. Minnesota, Winnipeg, Columbus, Nashville, they all want the same things too.

This year the team is watchable because they are much more engaged and playing with some confidence. Last year was rough. But the pieces missing on this squad are pretty glaring, and too important to win much without.

I enjoy that the team is competitive, I wish I thought the trajectory was upward, but I don't see where it comes from.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by TheSquatch

There's no rebuild. This is it. We've seen it.

The mandate is to make the playoffs. Until that changes, they team is some version of what we are seeing here - some pretty good players, possibly one or two elite or close to that, but big positions missing year after year because the teams drafts at 15-20 not at 3.

So on the Flames go here, beating bad teams, beating some middling teams, and losing to the strongest teams when they bring the A game. Flames are a middling team trying to get better, just like every other middling team trying to get better. Minnesota, Winnipeg, Columbus, Nashville, they all want the same things too.

This year the team is watchable because they are much more engaged and playing with some confidence. Last year was rough. But the pieces missing on this squad are pretty glaring, and too important to win much without.

I enjoy that the team is competitive, I wish I thought the trajectory was upward, but I don't see where it comes from.

To be controversial would it be terrible if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both chose to walk in the next 1-2 years and forced this organization into a re-build.

I worry that signing one or both to long-term deals just will ensure this team is middling. Not because of them but because they will allow the team to be "good" but not great.

So they both walk and the organization has to finally reckon that this re-build didn't work and it's time to tear it down.

I'm not in favor of tanking but if there's one year that tanking would change this franchise (potentailly) it's 2023. I see 3 potential franchise altering players at the top of that draft.

[Teroy]

Wow, amazing how fast some of you fell off the wagon.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

To be controversial would it be terrible if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both chose to walk in the next 1-2 years and forced this organization into a re-build.

I worry that signing one or both to long-term deals just will ensure this team is middling. Not because of them but because they will allow the team to be "good" but not great.

So they both walk and the organization has to finally reckon that this re-build didn't work and it's time to tear it down.

I'm not in favor of tanking but if there's one year that tanking would change this franchise (potentailly) it's 2023. I see 3 potential franchise altering players at the top of that draft.

Fair. Neither guy is an elite centre or a dominant defenceman, and you need one of those at least, plus a lot of support. I mean, it’s not impossible - the Flames and Vegas made the finals without those two pieces, but there are not too many other examples. TB arguably has had the best goalie, the best defenceman, the best winger and a couple centres that are elite.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Biggest problem with the flames rebuild we just had is that we failed to gut the goaltending enough to finish last. If this team enters rebuild mode in the next couple seasons, Markstrom and vladar need too go, and wolf needs to stay in the ahl.

I recall some pretty terrible goaltending in the early stages of the rebuild.

The problem with the rebuild was Johnny Gaudreau. He was a instant star that drove this team up a few spots in the draft. Hard to not play him or trade him when he is that good that quickly. Sure we picked up guys like Hudler or Wideman or we traded picks for Hamilton and Hamonic but by then we weren't getting top 3 picks unless we won the draft lottery due to Johnny Gaudreau being an instant star.

If Gaudreau took 2-3 years to develop this team would have had a very different path IMO

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Sutter is talking about the lack of skill as a motivation tool for the players to play the right way game in and game out. That is how Sutter operates. I find the notion that he is sending a message management by saying this pretty silly. I feel he is the kind of guy who would say this directly to management.

But the Flames played the right way yesterday and still got crushed. This wasn’t a wide open run & gun game like Tuesday, it was very much the opposite. The media even asked him and he said there was nothing system wise that they could do better, they were just beaten by a superior team.

Darryl has been very honest and blunt about what he thinks of this team and has openly talked about the personnel not being good enough. That’s what I think his comments are about, just a subtle message to management that they haven’t built a good enough roster.

Darryl was brought in to assess this team and their makeup and outside of one line, I think he’s been pretty underwhelmed. The constant line juggling of 75% of his lines tells me what he really thinks. He likes the top line and that’s it. But ultimately, this is a flawed roster that doesn’t have the right pieces to compete at an elite level right now. I suppose there’s some silver lining in that Darryl now knows for sure who needs to stay and who needs to go, so we’re headed towards the right direction.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Teroy

Wow, amazing how fast some of you fell off the wagon.

Not really. I've been saying for a very long time that I would be worried about signing Johnny to a high price high term deal.
He's earned for sure and without him this team is BAD. He's been fantastic this year including as a far more complete player

But I want this team to be a contender. I think this team has a potential run in them, but if you ask me the chances that they win a cup in the next 3 years or 5 years?

I would peg that at around 1%

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

To be controversial would it be terrible if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both chose to walk in the next 1-2 years and forced this organization into a re-build.

I worry that signing one or both to long-term deals just will ensure this team is middling. Not because of them but because they will allow the team to be "good" but not great.

So they both walk and the organization has to finally reckon that this re-build didn't work and it's time to tear it down.

I'm not in favor of tanking but if there's one year that tanking would change this franchise (potentailly) it's 2023. I see 3 potential franchise altering players at the top of that draft.

I wouldn't be upset if it happened either. I just think it's not as sure fire a way to build as it used to be. Lose Tkachuk and Gaudreau and get 5th overall 2 years in a row and you are looking at a very bad situation.

If the Flames had Arizona's situation it would be exciting but even if they get Wright this draft and he becomes a star worth tanking for I just don't see Arizona turning the corner and winning it all before Wright is asking for $14 mil a year. Still need to manage your team very well after getting him and draft very well. This doesn't even mention what having that bad a team is doing to the confidence of Keller or Chychyrun. Rumors Chychyrun could be available and maybe he can't wait to leave now due to that embarrassing team. You get Wright sure he might rethink leaving but if you get 3rd overall pick and continue to be bad or Wright comes in a takes time to develop like Kakko and Lafrienere look like they need you more than likely are losing key pieces as you add them.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Not really. I've been saying for a very long time that I would be worried about signing Johnny to a high price high term deal.
He's earned for sure and without him this team is BAD. He's been fantastic this year including as a far more complete player

But I want this team to be a contender. I think this team has a potential run in them, but if you ask me the chances that they win a cup in the necxt 3 years or 5 years?

I would peg that at around 1%

I agree that Johnny and Tkachuk contracts need to be reasonable. Some suggesting that giving them $11 mil is worth it are wrong IMO. There is a limit and if you go above the limit the idea of a rebuild becomes the better option than having guys for 6 years at way to much money in a flat cap world.

But I do think with a decent contract sure 1% at winning the cup might be right but there is still a much better chance at being a contender in the next year or 2 if we develop some players and get rid of some bad contracts coming up pretty soon

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

But the Flames played the right way yesterday and still got crushed. This wasn’t a wide open run & gun game like Tuesday, it was very much the opposite. The media even asked him and he said there was nothing system wise that they could do better, they were just beaten by a superior team.

Darryl has been very honest and blunt about what he thinks of this team and has openly talked about the personnel not being good enough. That’s what I think his comments are about, just a subtle message to management that they haven’t built a good enough roster.

Darryl was brought in to assess this team and their makeup and outside of one line, I think he’s been pretty underwhelmed. The constant line juggling of 75% of his lines tells me what he really thinks. He likes the top line and that’s it. But ultimately, this is a flawed roster that doesn’t have the right pieces to compete at an elite level right now. I suppose there’s some silver lining in that Darryl now knows for sure who needs to stay and who needs to go, so we’re headed towards the right direction.

Leaving Point wide open in front of the net is the right way to play?

Do you remember when Sutter asked the 04 team if they wanted him to get them Yzermans autograph at the start of the series? That is how he operates his teams. Make them the underdogs and fight for every inch of ice. He doesn't operate by throwing jabs at management in press conferences.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

To be controversial would it be terrible if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both chose to walk in the next 1-2 years and forced this organization into a re-build.

I worry that signing one or both to long-term deals just will ensure this team is middling. Not because of them but because they will allow the team to be "good" but not great.

So they both walk and the organization has to finally reckon that this re-build didn't work and it's time to tear it down.

I'm not in favor of tanking but if there's one year that tanking would change this franchise (potentailly) it's 2023. I see 3 potential franchise altering players at the top of that draft.

For me, I’m in the opposite camp. The rebuild to me is a last resort. For the first time in a long time, I think this team is truly headed in the right direction. I hope Gaudreau and Tkachuk stay because together with Lindholm, they’ve created arguably, the best 2 way line in the entire league.

This line alone has beaten a lot of average teams this season. But at the same time, they’ve also propped up the team and hidden the underlying flaws of the team that have recently been exposed against the the elite teams of the league.

Personally though, I think the Flames are a few pieces away from being a contender, not Tampa good, but Vegas/Colorado good. Tampa is just at a different level than everyone else. But we’ve got the right top line. It’s just a matter of insulating that first line with a consistent, dependable second line and a quality third line. I think some of the pieces (i.e. Mangiapane, Coleman and etc.) can be a part of the solution, but that’ll be Treliving and co’s ultimate job going forward, what can they add/remove to find the right mix and create depth throughout the lineup.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Yeah I'm not in disagreement. Adding 1 top 6 forward would slot everyone far better. Adding 1 top 6 and 1 middle 6 would be even better.
I just don't know that I'm going to like the acquisition cost including giving up another 1st round pick