Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Coach]

Originally Posted by blender

I would say the 8th year is a significant advantage for Calgary that pushes the odds to better than even.

The 8th year and negotiating advantage before other teams. Sure, he can wait a few months to see what's there, but I think we all forget how hard it would be to look at an offer north of $70 million and say you'll wait and see.

At the same time, it's not like that offer is going to go away.

Were I in Gaudreau's position, I would certainly want to see what's out there. A hockey career is short, and the opportunity to play in different cities is likely attractive to most players. That said, exploring the market wouldn't rule out re-signing either.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Gut feel ... mostly.

But the guy has said he wants to be here twice.
The guy has always been loyal.
His family seems to support him staying.
Calgary has the extra year.
He seems to be one of those guys that get comfortable in a setting.
His demeanor on the ice doesn't look like a guy leaving.
The fact he wasn't signed or traded leads me to believe he and the team know where this is going.

I almost went with 75%

Something I’ll add is that by signing with the Flames doesn’t mean Gaudreau is going to be a Flame for the duration of his contract.

It’s not as though the door will be forever shut if he wants to go play back east.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Gut feel ... mostly.

But the guy has said he wants to be here twice.
The guy has always been loyal.
His family seems to support him staying.
Calgary has the extra year.
He seems to be one of those guys that get comfortable in a setting.
His demeanor on the ice doesn't look like a guy leaving.
The fact he wasn't signed or traded leads me to believe he and the team know where this is going.

I almost went with 75%

Just to play devils advocate, every UFA says they want to stay, what else can they say? I can't remember any that say they are leaving during the season. What they do say is, I'm not talking contract during the season, which is usually followed by, I'm really happy here. Once the season is over they hum and ha for a few weeks before letting everyone know they what to see what other offers are out there. Sure Landaskog waited till the eve of free agency but we all know that agents start talking prior to that and they probably knew what other offers were going to be before resigning with Avs.

The bolded, like you said are gut feel. No evidence of anything one way or another, family will always say the same message as the player.
My opinion is his chance of staying 35%, he's the big fish in this off season, might be some big offers.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Gut feel ... mostly.

But the guy has said he wants to be here twice.
The guy has always been loyal.
His family seems to support him staying.
Calgary has the extra year.
He seems to be one of those guys that get comfortable in a setting.
His demeanor on the ice doesn't look like a guy leaving.
The fact he wasn't signed or traded leads me to believe he and the team know where this is going.

I almost went with 75%

You can add in the fact that Blake Coleman signed here after talking with Johnny Hockey. I agree with many of the points you raise, but you have to look at what happens with the market opens and the confounding factors that is going to raise. I'm also concerned what impact the new failure of the event center is going to have as well. I'm with Tranny and see this as 50-50. Could go either way. Treliving should have had this hammered out in the summer instead of being on safari big game hunting.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

You can add in the fact that Blake Coleman signed here after talking with Johnny Hockey. I agree with many of the points you raise, but you have to look at what happens with the market opens and the confounding factors that is going to raise. I'm also concerned what impact the new failure of the event center is going to have as well. I'm with Tranny and see this as 50-50. Could go either way. Treliving should have had this hammered out in the summer instead of being on safari big game hunting.

I know you couldn't possibly have meant to be offensive, but the word Tranny is deeply frowned upon and akin to saying something like F** about a homosexual person. One of my best friends recently transitioned, you would be well served eschewing that from your lexicon.
Just so you know.

[Monahammer]

I think we should offer Gaudreau the captaincy along with a fat contract to resign. Build the team around him, show him you're serious. He's showing us this year that he is capable of being the top player on the squad, potentially on both ends of the ice. He has been a leader in how he responded to Sutter's comments last year, and it's clear he is the beating heart of effort on the team. I personally think that he needed Gio to leave so he could fill the void, and he has done so very admirably.

I give it 70/30, and I would have had it reversed last season. The lack of new arena deal is the pall, but his fiance moving here to work nursing is extremely encouraging. I think some playoff wins would seal the deal.

[Coach]

It's been shorthand for Transplant99 for a while here. But I agree, it spikes my brain each time I think we should find a different nickname to avoid this in the future.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Coach

It's been shorthand for Transplant99 for a while here. But I agree, it spikes my brain each time I think we should find a different nickname to avoid this in the future.

Yeah I wasn't meaning to pick on Lanny exclusively there, as I have seen it before too. Just felt it was a good opportunity to pipe up and say it. Plus lanny does deserve the occasional knock

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

Just to play devils advocate, every UFA says they want to stay, what else can they say? I can't remember any that say they are leaving during the season. What they do say is, I'm not talking contract during the season, which is usually followed by, I'm really happy here. Once the season is over they hum and ha for a few weeks before letting everyone know they what to see what other offers are out there. Sure Landaskog waited till the eve of free agency but we all know that agents start talking prior to that and they probably knew what other offers were going to be before resigning with Avs.

The bolded, like you said are gut feel. No evidence of anything one way or another, family will always say the same message as the player.
My opinion is his chance of staying 35%, he's the big fish in this off season, might be some big offers.

Yep just gut feel.

But part of said gut feel is the situation itself. I've certainly seen decades of cliched answers from players saying the right things and then not following through.

Gaudreau seems different.

Plus not sure I've seen these comments from a family that floods social media with Flames jerseys at family parties, or has members engage with Calgary fans on a daily basis.

[GioforPM]

Probabilities: Lots of times my clients ask for a probability of winning a case, and in many cases, it really doesn’t make sense, because no matter what the probability, it’s a binary outcome. Win the case or lose it. Signed Gaudreau or not signed. So I end up saying “your case is stronger than the other side’s but you could still lose” because numbers are irrelevant.

Tell me what the offer is and I can tell you if I think it is more likely than not to be accepted

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Probabilities: Lots of times my clients ask for a probability of winning a case, and in many cases, it really doesn’t make sense, because no matter what the probability, it’s a binary outcome. Win the case or lose it. Signed Gaudreau or not signed. So I end up saying “your case is stronger than the other side’s but you could still lose” because numbers are irrelevant.

Tell me what the offer is and I can tell you if I think it is more likely than not to be accepted

Eric Francis said he's leaving so I think you can tell your clients it's a lock that Johnny is signing long term in Calgary.

Open and shut case if I may use the lingo.

[Strange Brew]

Personally, I am interested in knowing what people's walk away price would be for signing Gaudreau to an 8 year deal. I feel some posters would simply pay him whatever he wants.

For me, anything above $10 million per and I'm going to let him sign elsewhere. It would suck losing him for nothing but it gets too hard to win paying a winger any more than that in today's cap. Even $10 million is debatable, but the player holds all the cards here.

I reserve the right to change my price after seeing how the playoffs go, but that's my limit today.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Personally, I am interested in knowing what people's walk away price would be for signing Gaudreau to an 8 year deal. I feel some posters would simply pay him whatever he wants.

For me, anything above $10 million per and I'm going to let him sign elsewhere. It would suck losing him for nothing but it gets too hard to win paying a winger any more than that in today's cap. Even $10 million is debatable, but the player holds all the cards here.

I reserve the right to change my price after seeing how the playoffs go, but that's my limit today.

Sometimes in discussions it turns out that “sign him not matter what” folks usually do have a limit. But the playing field has certainly changed over the last year.

I tend to agree that a winger (and one that hasn’t proven himself in the POs over the years) can’t command elite centre numbers.

[Coach]

I would eeeeek at 11, but I would probably be okay with it. There definitely is an element of "you kinda HAVE to sign him." And there's no doubt his agent is using all the leverage he can, which is considerable. So, like if we heard tomorrow that Gaudreau signed 8 years at $13 million, I would think it's crazy. But not as crazy as watching him walk away for nothing.

Anything under 10, I'm a happy fan.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Coach

I would eeeeek at 11, but I would probably be okay with it. There definitely is an element of "you kinda HAVE to sign him." And there's no doubt his agent is using all the leverage he can, which is considerable. So, like if we heard tomorrow that Gaudreau signed 8 years at $13 million, I would think it's crazy. But not as crazy as watching him walk away for nothing.

Anything under 10, I'm a happy fan.

The question is what that does to the rest of the team and the cap. How much does Tkachuk get? Mangiapane? Kylington? How much does Lindholm on his next contract, which is coming up in a couple years? Does it prevent a big signing?

If you have ELC players with significant contributions, that helps a lot.

[timbit]

If the Flames should lose Johnny, they would be in some serious trouble.

There is a considerable acquisition and salary cost, in trying to replace him.

The acquisition cost and salary of the replacement player will certainly be more than 10 million dollars AAV.

I’m guessing he gets 8 years 9.75 - 10.25 AAV from the Flames.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by timbit

If the Flames should lose Johnny, they would be in some serious trouble.

There is a considerable acquisition and salary cost, in trying to replace him.

The acquisition cost and salary of the replacement player will certainly be more than 10 million dollars AAV.

I’m guessing he gets 8 years 9.75 - 10.25 AAV.

Would you walk away if he wants $11M per?

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Would you walk away if he wants $11M per?

Probably not.

But then you’re exacerbating the cap problem... and probably buying out or moving other salaries/ players for little to no immediate return.

[Monahammer]

I'm happy with 10.5 ... I sincerely hope that would be adequate.

10.5*8= 84Mill.

Someone would have to offer him 12*7 to match the $$ and who knows what Johnny would be worth at ~35 to resign.

I think we can make that work. Perhaps some additional bonus structure can even reduce it to 10 flat.

[CliffFletcher]

If they do re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk is gone. Probably before the ink is dry on the contract.