Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Kipper_3434]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Who says that Johnny wants a deal that is "fair to Calgary"? He has all the leverage and can basically ask for a blank cheque to sign prior to UFA.

I have to think that if he would ink that deal today, it would be done already.

Because calgary has the 8th year another team would have to overpay to outbid calgary . 8x9 > 7x10

[Kipper_3434]

Wow was looking at what % of salary i ginla made in 2005-2006. Flames could give Johnny 14.5m AAV and he would still take a smaller % of cap space.

[Snuffleupagus]

I still think Johnny's camp is probably looking at a contract close to what Panarin is getting, a little lower but the AAV is going to be slightly north of $10m IMO ...somewhere.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Wow was looking at what % of salary i ginla made in 2005-2006. Flames could give Johnny 14.5m AAV and he would still take a smaller % of cap space.

That was a 3 year contract though. That ain’t getting it done.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Who says that Johnny wants a deal that is "fair to Calgary"? He has all the leverage and can basically ask for a blank cheque to sign prior to UFA.

I have to think that if he would ink that deal today, it would be done already.

A lot of players sign later though. You could have made the exact same point about Landeskog and the deal he signed.

If he was going to take $7M x 8 years that would be done by early-mid season. It was signed on the eve of free agency.

Outside of the Devils I am not sure who has the blank cheque to give to Johnny?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

A lot of players sign later though. You could have made the exact same point about Landeskog and the deal he signed.

If he was going to take $7M x 8 years that would be done by early-mid season. It was signed on the eve of free agency.

Outside of the Devils I am not sure who has the blank cheque to give to Johnny?

The Flyers, if they move on from Giroux.

The Ducks.

Yzerman could sign Gaudreau and still need extra deals to reach the floor.

Seattle could want to make a big splash.

And probably Vegas, somehow.

[Manhattanboy]

You know its going to be Vegas. Of course it will be Vegas.

[CliffFletcher]

I could see the Devils making a legit offer. Or a dark horse like the Blue Jackets. All it takes is two teams and you get a bidding war.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

A lot of players sign later though. You could have made the exact same point about Landeskog and the deal he signed.

If he was going to take $7M x 8 years that would be done by early-mid season. It was signed on the eve of free agency.

Outside of the Devils I am not sure who has the blank cheque to give to Johnny?

Landeskog desperately wanted to stay in Colorado. I don’t believe Johnny will stay at any cost. Stamkos was the same story.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Because calgary has the 8th year another team would have to overpay to outbid calgary . 8x9 > 7x10

This is a good point.

So even if another team offer say $10M x 7 years on the open market, the Flames don't have to offer $10M AAV because of the 8th year.

I still think that $72M x 8 years should get the deal done or $9M AAV.

For another team to match the total value it would have to be $72M x 7 which is $10.3M AAV, that's a big advantage for the Flames to be able to go 8 years.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Landeskog desperately wanted to stay in Colorado. I don’t believe Johnny will stay at any cost. Stamkos was the same story.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You have no idea what Johnny wants. You assume he doesn’t want to stay here but he has said the contrary many times.

Your point was if there was a $9M offer on the table it would be done. I countered with the same scenario about Landeskog. I bet there was a 7x8 deal on the table for a long time before he signed it.

I remember you called Johnny a 70pt player and seemed pretty confident he had peaked yet here he is having his best season while adding the element of being a 200ft player. Maybe you are just wrong with some of your assumptions on Gaudreau?

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

This is a good point.

So even if another team offer say $10M x 7 years on the open market, the Flames don't have to offer $10M AAV because of the 8th year.

I still think that $72M x 8 years should get the deal done or $9M AAV.

For another team to match the total value it would have to be $72M x 7 which is $10.3M AAV, that's a big advantage for the Flames to be able to go 8 years.

What if that team has a lower tax rate, might even out

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

You have no idea what Johnny wants. You assume he doesn’t want to stay here but he has said the contrary many times.

Your point was if there was a $9M offer on the table it would be done. I countered with the same scenario about Landeskog. I bet there was a 7x8 deal on the table for a long time before he signed it.

I remember you called Johnny a 70pt player and seemed pretty confident he had peaked yet here he is having his best season while adding the element of being a 200ft player. Maybe you are just wrong with some of your assumptions on Gaudreau?

I said I don’t think he will stay at ant cost, unlike Landeskog and Stamkos who were just trying to get as large a contract as possible, but with their home team. They each took a discount to stay.

Yes, I thought Johnny’s best season was behind him. He is currently on pace for 98 points, let’s see where he ends up.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Mr.Coffee]

For fun every post from here on out should put the opinion of probability Gaudreau re-signs in Calgary.

I’m going to say about 5%. I also agree with Bingo that re-signing him to anything monster would likely be a huuuuge mistake. As great as Sutter has been for him, a) it’s a contract year and everybody plays better in contract years and B) Sutter won’t be around for another 8 years. I think Calgary won’t ante up and Gaudreau will obviously not want to leave $5-10MM on the table that he otherwise could probably get as a UFA. So this one’s probably done, and this is our chance this year to win a cup with Gaudreau. I also think it’s possible, this year, with Darryl at the helm to win it all. Possible, not probable.

[dissentowner]

Just moved to the area with his wife, has said multiple times he wants to stay, has strong connections to the community and team. Combine that with a GM who has to know if he lets the most popular player with the fanbase walk for nothing the demand for his dismissal will be extremely high and I would put his chance of staying at about 90%. I am not worried at all.

[djsFlames]

MOD EDIT: Removed inappropriate image.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

For fun every post from here on out should put the opinion of probability Gaudreau re-signs in Calgary.

I’m going to say about 5%. I also agree with Bingo that re-signing him to anything monster would likely be a huuuuge mistake. As great as Sutter has been for him, a) it’s a contract year and everybody plays better in contract years and B) Sutter won’t be around for another 8 years. I think Calgary won’t ante up and Gaudreau will obviously not want to leave $5-10MM on the table that he otherwise could probably get as a UFA. So this one’s probably done, and this is our chance this year to win a cup with Gaudreau. I also think it’s possible, this year, with Darryl at the helm to win it all. Possible, not probable.

I'd put him at about 65% personally.

That's without any knowledge, but just a view.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'd put him at about 65% personally.

That's without any knowledge, but just a view.

Curious as to why it would be anything higher than 50/50 at this point?

Not sure what gives the Flames an "edge" other than this is the only place he has played (which might be enough maybe?).

I do know he has zero reason not to at least get to July 1 (or whatever it is this year) see what is out there and use it as leverage should he choose too.

For example, and its unlikely, someone comes at him with 10M for 7 years or something like that, he can go to BT and say "this is what you are competing against". Regardless whether or not he wants to sign that deal with that club, it gives him serious leverage.

[blender]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Curious as to why it would be anything higher than 50/50 at this point?

Not sure what gives the Flames an "edge" other than this is the only place he has played (which might be enough maybe?).

I do know he has zero reason not to at least get to July 1 (or whatever it is this year) see what is out there and use it as leverage should he choose too.

For example, and its unlikely, someone comes at him with 10M for 7 years or something like that, he can go to BT and say "this is what you are competing against". Regardless whether or not he wants to sign that deal with that club, it gives him serious leverage.

I would say the 8th year is a significant advantage for Calgary that pushes the odds to better than even.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Curious as to why it would be anything higher than 50/50 at this point?

Not sure what gives the Flames an "edge" other than this is the only place he has played (which might be enough maybe?).

I do know he has zero reason not to at least get to July 1 (or whatever it is this year) see what is out there and use it as leverage should he choose too.

For example, and its unlikely, someone comes at him with 10M for 7 years or something like that, he can go to BT and say "this is what you are competing against". Regardless whether or not he wants to sign that deal with that club, it gives him serious leverage.

Gut feel ... mostly.

But the guy has said he wants to be here twice.
The guy has always been loyal.
His family seems to support him staying.
Calgary has the extra year.
He seems to be one of those guys that get comfortable in a setting.
His demeanor on the ice doesn't look like a guy leaving.
The fact he wasn't signed or traded leads me to believe he and the team know where this is going.

I almost went with 75%