Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[calumniate]

We need to hire a hypnotist..

'Calgary > Jersey, Calgary is the best'

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Gaudreau is essentially a UFA so I think anyone who signs him will be paying a premium with the commensurate risk attached.

Trading him is no longer a realistic option so it’s either sign him or lose for nothing. What is the walk away price on an 8 year deal? $11 million?

For me yeah I wouldn't do it.

Maybe $10m but I'd still be worried.

But this isn't an anti-Gaudreau thing at all ... love the player. Honestly the only thing that I've ever disliked about his was his showing up refs for slashes but he's completely cleaned that up.

And now becoming a 200 foot player and reinventing himself? It's what the team really needed.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

You easily sign him at 10/year for eight years. He's sitting at a salary just under seven million now, you make that up by not overpaying marginal players in support roles.

Pay your top guys, in eight years it's not going to be the boat anchor some think it will be.

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Serevelli (sp) on 960 figures johnny gets 8.25 per year. I say sign him to 8 years if that's the number

That seems insanely low considering other contracts that have been signed in the last few years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Why is trading no longer an option?

The team can absolutely not let March 21 come go without an extension or a trade.

That's not realistic given their place in the standings.

Teams with elite UFAs but in the mix to win a division don't trade away stars, they keep them which are essentially trade acquisitions when the dust settles.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Matthew Tkachuk's making nine million this year and has to be qualified at that. Gaudreau is the better player and is a UFA, don't break a sweat at ten, that's just the cost of doing business.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

That seems insanely low considering other contracts that have been signed in the last few years.

I think it will come in around $9.5 million per year, similar to the extension that Braden Point signed with Tampa.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You might need the 8 year contract to spread out the dollars for cap purposes. If JG is like other players, he cares most about the full contract amount. Just be prepared to maybe trade and retain in the last couple years.

You have this wrong. Longer term actually adds cap hit for star players. That's why Gaudreau was rumoured to be closer to 7.5/8mil AAV on this current contract if he had signed 8 years instead of the 6 he signed for.

Lower cap hits for more years was more a thing back when you could circumvent with really low final years, aka Kiprusoff, Hossa etc.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think it will come in around $9.5 million per year, similar to the extension that Braden Point signed with Tampa.

CP tax experts in coming.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by jayswin

You have this wrong. Longer term actually adds cap hit for star players. That's why Gaudreau was rumoured to be closer to 7.5/8mil AAV on this current contract if he had signed 8 years instead of the 6 he signed for.

Lower cap hits for more years was more a thing back when you could circumvent with really low final years, aka Kiprusoff, Hossa etc.

I think that is true when you're burning prime UFA years. His next contract goes until he's 36-37. Unless he's banking on being a Jagr, the contracts after this one (if he's still playing) could arguably be in the $1million range. He could get 10x7 on the open market, but 8 x 9 or 9.5 gives him an extra 2-6 million. Which would be more than a 1 year swan song contract at the back end of his career.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by jayswin

You have this wrong. Longer term actually adds cap hit for star players. That's why Gaudreau was rumoured to be closer to 7.5/8mil AAV on this current contract if he had signed 8 years instead of the 6 he signed for.

Lower cap hits for more years was more a thing back when you could circumvent with really low final years, aka Kiprusoff, Hossa etc.

Not on retirement contracts, which this would be. Gaudreau's choice would be make a lot of total money on a 6 year deal and then look for work at a pretty low wage afterwards (or retire). Or be guaranteed to make a fair bit more total over 8 years on the contract and not look for work.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I think that is true when you're burning prime UFA years. His next contract goes until he's 36-37. Unless he's banking on being a Jagr, the contracts after this one (if he's still playing) could arguably be in the $1million range. He could get 10x7 on the open market, but 8 x 9 or 9.5 gives him an extra 2-6 million. Which would be more than a 1 year swan song contract at the back end of his career.

With a chance of a buyout towards the end, which actually could mean more money for him in total.

[Lanny_McDonald]

8 years, $60M (11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4).

[Vinny01]

One of the biggest challenges of making big moves in the 2019 deadline was the looming extensions required for Tkachuk, Bennett, Rittich, Mangiapane Hathaway and not a lot of available cash to make it happen.

With Johnny, Chucky and Mangiapane up this year it really seems tough to see how they can add a long term piece. The Monahan deal is really gumming up the works

[psyang]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

8 years, $60M (11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4).

Would be great, but last two years would have to be 5.5 I think (can't go below 50% of 11). So 8 years, 62M. Make it so!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by psyang

Would be great, but last two years would have to be 5.5 I think (can't go below 50% of 11). So 8 years, 62M. Make it so!

Here's the rules:



Front Loaded Contracts: the salary variance in any adjacent years cannot exceed 35% of the salary in the first contract year regardless of whether the salary is increasing or decreasing & the lowest salary year cannot be less than 50% of the highest salary year

Non-Front Loaded Contracts: any salary increases in adjacent years may not exceed the lower of the first two years of the contract & any salary decreases in adjacent years may not exceed 50% of the lower of the first two years of the contract.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

One of the biggest challenges of making big moves in the 2019 deadline was the looming extensions required for Tkachuk, Bennett, Rittich, Mangiapane Hathaway and not a lot of available cash to make it happen.

With Johnny, Chucky and Mangiapane up this year it really seems tough to see how they can add a long term piece. The Monahan deal is really gumming up the works

Blake Coleman says hi

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

8 years, $60M (11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4).

You really think that Gaudreau would accept this? It is easily 2 million AAV under his market value.

[SuperMatt18]

I think $68M/8 would be the cheapest you could maybe get him locked up for at this point. If the number was around or below $8M then I think it would be done already.

If I'm the Flames I offer $68M/8 with the following structure:

$11M, $11M, $10M, $10M, $8M, $6M, $6M, $6M

That's $8.5M AAV and even that probably is a little low. The attraction is it's $42M over the next 4 years but he will probably want a little more than $6M those last three seasons.

He'd probably want more like $11M, $11M, $10M, $10M, $8M, $8M, $8M, $6M which is $72M/8 and a $9M per season AAV. And if I'm the Flames I'm still comfortable with that too.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Major Major

You really think that Gaudreau would accept this? It is easily 2 million AAV under his market value.

It really depends on whether he can get that total contract price elsewhere, in 7 years or less. Hockey players, I've come to understand, care less about AAV per year than what they are guaranteed to make on a particular contract. So if Gaudreau can make $60M on a shorter deal, sure, he passes on that contract. But if he's offered 6 years at $55M he might just go for the $60M deal instead.

I think the 8 year contract value will be higher than $60M, but that's just an example for discussion.