Andrew Mangiapane's upside

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This again. Treliving had no money to work with, mainly because of Tkachuk’s contract. And also Bennett and Rittich who needed to be signed. Who should have been his priority back then, with Mangiapane having one decent season under his belt? We’ve seen lots of one year wonders get signed and become pretty mediocre. Look up north.

This again

What do you think the GM"s job is? If there is no money that falls on the GM.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

His 15 goals and 2 assists reminds me of a Wendel Clark stats line but more extremely biased towards goals.

Ovi has a couple of beauties

On his career, he is 745 G 605 A

Lopsided seasons include

2015-16: 79 GP 50-21-71
2019-20: 68 GP 48-19-67

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Another thing going against Mangiapane is his size.

Not a lot of teams willing to throw money at a small winger.

There is Martin. St Louis small who had tree trunks for legs and there is Mangiapane small.

Isn't bread stick still bigger than Fleury and Gaudreau? He's a small winger but he's not like those three. LOL Plus Mangi is willing to go to the dirty areas. So, it's a plus that he can do that for his size.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Another thing going against Mangiapane is his size.

Not a lot of teams willing to throw money at a small winger.

There is Martin. St Louis small who had tree trunks for legs and there is Mangiapane small.

I think every team in the league would jump at the chance to throw some money at Mangiapane.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think every team in the league would jump at the chance to throw some money at Mangiapane.

I meant the $7 million that some posters are suggesting and some suggesting as high as $11 million.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Another thing going against Mangiapane is his size.

Not a lot of teams willing to throw money at a small winger.

Well, that's simply not true. Just look at the $98M Minnesota threw at Zach Parise back in the day. Easy comparable to Mangiapane in terms of playstyle too.

Brendan Gallagher is on the first year of a $6,500,000 x 6y deal that takes him from age 29 to age 35

Johnny Gaudreau is on the final year of a $6,750,000 x 6Y deal that he signed when he didn't even have arbitration or offersheet signing rights as leverage.

Clayton Keller has a $7,150,000x8y contract and probably hasn't done half as much as Mangiapane in terms of actual impact

Jonathan Marchessault has a $5,000,000x6y contract that took him from ages 28-34... while living in a low tax state

Cam Atkinson has a $5,875,000x7y contract that takes him from ages 29-35

Brad Marchand has a $6,125,000x8y contract that takes him from ages 29-36

Zuccarello has a $6,000,000x5y contract that takes him from ages 32-36

Tyler Johnson has a $5,000,000x7y contract that took him from ages 27-33, again signed in a low tax state

In comparison to all these older players, Andrew Mangiapane is 25 years old. If you signed him to an eight year deal, his contract would end just as his ostensible prime ends (age 33) whereas most of the deals above have guys being paid well past their prime years, which lowers their cap hits.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

This again

What do you think the GM"s job is? If there is no money that falls on the GM.

Whatever Treliving’s job was, he didn’t lowball Mangiapane to play “hardball”. He gave him all he could afford.

As for the “GM’s job”, every team has the same issue and every team handles it the same way, by signing the younger guys to shorter contracts. Name another team that signed a 23 year old who’d hit 32 points for the first time to an 8 year contract at what - $4-5M?

Go back and see what the contract projections were at the time. No one was suggesting what all the hindsight experts are now. This is the age when long term deals are signed.

[Roof-Daddy]

Comparing Mangiapane to. Cheechoo?

Come on.

While his shooting percentage is unsustainable at nearly 30%, mangiapane is not scoring all his goals because he is being force fed prime ice time with a future hall of fame center.

Anybody who watches the games can see that Mang makes his own way out there. He's a gritty little player with a non stop motor and creates his own offense most of the time.

[Knightslayer]

^^^ Granteedev


Every single one of those players had accomplished more in their career. Mangiapane has been hot for 40 games.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Whatever Treliving’s job was, he didn’t lowball Mangiapane to play “hardball”. He gave him all he could afford.

As for the “GM’s job”, every team has the same issue and every team handles it the same way, by signing the younger guys to shorter contracts. Name another team that signed a 23 year old who’d hit 32 points for the first time to an 8 year contract at what - $4-5M?

Go back and see what the contract projections were at the time. No one was suggesting what all the hindsight experts are now. This is the age when long term deals are signed.

I'm not saying his job is easy or that he even should have signed him to a longer term although I think he probably should have.

I'm saying the fact he had no money was his own doing. He signed James neal, he signed Buddy Robinson. He made a lot of bad signings that handcuffed him. So you can't say he was blame free like not having the money to sign your players is someone else's fault.

And 8 years at $5 million is what he will be getting this summer I believe. Think it could have been done for a lot cheaper at his previous signing.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

^^^ Granteedev


Every single one of those players had accomplished more in their career. Mangiapane has been hot for 40 games.

What are you talking about?

Andrew Mangiapane has 58 goals in his last 171 NHL games

That's not "40 hot games"

That's an average pace of 28 goals per 82 games over a longer sample size than two full 82 game seasons.

And he hasn't spent a single one of those games on his team's top powerplay unit.

You really don't seem to understand how remarkable he has been since halfway into his rookie season.

That number will skew even higher if Mangiapane breaks the 35 or 40 goal barriers this year, which he's well on pace to do. The higher skew will also be affected by recency weighting, which matters in contract negotiations.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Isn't bread stick still bigger than Fleury and Gaudreau? He's a small winger but he's not like those three. LOL Plus Mangi is willing to go to the dirty areas. So, it's a plus that he can do that for his size.

Size wise no not really. Think he's a little heavier than Gaudreau.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

What are you talking about?

Andrew Mangiapane has 58 goals in his last 171 NHL games

That's not "40 hot games"

That's an average pace of 28 goals per 82 games over a longer sample size than two full 82 game seasons.

And he hasn't spent a single one of those games on his team's top powerplay unit.

You really don't seem to understand how remarkable he has been since halfway into his rookie season.

That number will skew even higher if Mangiapane breaks the 35 or 40 goal barriers this year, which he's well on pace to do. The higher skew will also be affected by recency weighting, which matters in contract negotiations.

Now do the math on the previous 131 games before his last 40.

You can't use last 40 where he is on a 70 goal pace and then say last 171 games...

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

I'm not saying his job is easy or that he even should have signed him to a longer term although I think he probably should have.

I'm saying the fact he had no money was his own doing. He signed James neal, he signed Buddy Robinson. He made a lot of bad signings that handcuffed him. So you can't say he was blame free like not having the money to sign your players is someone else's fault.

Who said blame free? I said he wasn’t “playing hardball”.

And you’re seriously blaming Buddy Robinson’s one year $700K deal for Treliving not signing Mangiapane for 8 years at $5M or something similar?

We all know about the Neal screwup. Which was, for a lot of people, a good signing at the time. Not me, but plenty of people said Treliving was a winner in UFA for signing him. And if not him, then some other winger would have been signed to play top 6 and Mangiapane’s contract would be no different.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Who said blame free? I said he wasn’t “playing hardball”.

And you’re seriously blaming Buddy Robinson’s one year $700K deal for Treliving not signing Mangiapane for 8 years at $5M or something similar?

We all know about the Neal screwup. Which was, for a lot of people, a good signing at the time. Not me, but plenty of people said Treliving was a winner in UFA for signing him. And if not him, then some other winger would have been signed to play top 6 and Mangiapane’s contract would be no different.

No I'm saying you keep pointing to "what player would you rather have signed " towards 3 players.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. He was in a hard spot because he put himself there. Mangiapane could have been signed earlier and it wouldn't have to come to pick between Tkachuk or Mangiapane or any other player that year.

He signed Buddy Robinson for 2 years .

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

You can't use last 40 where he is on a 70 goal pace and then say last 171 games...

Actually, that's exactly how averages work.

And actually, with respect to contract negotiations, the more recent body of work usually outweighs the history.

The reality is that Mangiapane has produced at a highly productive rate since he scored the first goal of his NHL career. You can downplay it all you want, but he's scored the goals. He hasn't had PP1 opportunities like the Rocket Richard guys. He hasn't had Connor McDavid centering him. He's just casually produced 58 goals in his last 171 games. All players have hot streaks and cold streaks. That's hockey.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Actually, that's exactly how averages work.

And actually, with respect to contract negotiations, the more recent body of work usually outweighs the history.

The reality is that Mangiapane has produced at a highly productive rate since he scored the first goal of his NHL career. You can downplay it all you want, but he's scored the goals. He hasn't had PP1 opportunities like the Rocket Richard guys. He hasn't had Connor McDavid centering him. He's just casually produced 58 goals in his last 171 games. All players have hot streaks and cold streaks. That's hockey.

Well you should use career average then. You know when he was going 10 games without a goal.

Anyways, I love Mangiapane but it's silly to suggest he will be making "Marner" tier money. That isn't happening.

I will be willing to bet any amount his contract on anything over 6 years will start with a 5.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Well you should use career average then. You know when he was going 10 games without a goal.

Rookies struggle to produce as they adjust to the league. It's an adjustment period

Mangiapane struggled during his adjustment period.

Once he scored his first goal, he added 57 more.

Even if you want to use career averages, Mangiapane averages 24 goals per 82 games over his NHL career. And that's including not scoring a goal in the first 26 games. And almost all exclusively 5v5 considering the lack of PP opportunity early on (and really, still. He's a better goalscorer than Sean Monahan yet doesn't play on PP1.)

Anyways, I love Mangiapane but it's silly to suggest he will be making "Marner" tier money. That isn't happening.

If you sign him to a 1 year bridge deal a la William Karlsson? It's absolutely a risk.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Well you should use career average then. You know when he was going 10 games without a goal.

He has developed as a player and he's now entering his prime; you can't really use data from the earliest part of his career to project how his next 5 or 6 years are going to go. Recent data is, I would think, more relevant than data from 3 years ago.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

No I'm saying you keep pointing to "what player would you rather have signed " towards 3 players.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. He was in a hard spot because he put himself there. Mangiapane could have been signed earlier and it wouldn't have to come to pick between Tkachuk or Mangiapane or any other player that year.

He signed Buddy Robinson for 2 years .

No, in October 2020, which is the contract we’re talking about, he re-signed Robinson for one year at $700K. Prior to that he was on a 2 year deal for the same money.

He signed Mangiapane that year for $2.425M for 2 years. That’s a pretty standard contract for a guy with his experience who was looking promising. It was a show me deal for a guy who looked like he could blossom. He also signed Markstrom and Tanev. That put him near the cap, and aside from Mangiapane and Froese, those were the only contacts over a year (and Froese was signed to be buried).

Really, the only unwarranted salary was Neal, who had been converted into Lucic. But the error with Neal wasn’t paying a top 6 winger $6M - it was not evaluating the talent properly. If he didn’t sign Neal, he needed to sign some other similar winger, and the cash crunch would have been the same. Name one other player who was overpaid as of October 2020.

I’m saying you can’t look back and say it was a huge mistake to sign Mangiapane to a show me contract because that’s all that could be done.