Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Classic_Sniper]

Johnny Gaudreau at 5 on 5 = 18 GF - 0 GA
Matthew Tkachuk at 5 on 5 = 14 GF - 0 GA
Elias Lindholm at 5 on 5 = 17 GF - 1 GA


This trio IS the team. I don't even know how 2 players go this deep into the season, at almost 20 games in, without being on the ice for a 5 on 5 goal against. This team would be worse without Gaudreau and/or Tkachuk. I would rather almost nuke the entire roster than to lose the top line at this point.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The thing is, Chicago did all their winning before they signed those contracts. Every year during their window, they stayed competitive by moving out expensive players and bringing in cost-controlled assets to stay under the cap. From the moment they signed Toews and Kane for $21 million a year, they were in permanent cap jail, and they have not won a playoff round since.

There is no point in moving the Flames straight from 2008-09 Hawks to 2015-16 Hawks and skipping over the winning years.

That’s correct, but would you have let them leave?


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[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

That’s correct, but would you have let them leave?

At that price, I'd have kept Kane and let Toews go.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

At that price, I'd have kept Kane and let Toews go.

So trade Tkachuk.

Tkachuk is Toews in this example.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So trade Tkachuk.

Tkachuk is Toews in this example.

I agree. I think he ends up the odd man out, because it just doesn't make sense to be paying three left-shot wingers that kind of coin.

I still don't think the market is going to be strong enough for Gaudreau or anyone else to command $11M-plus in free agency, though. We appear to be talking past one another on that point. I fully agree with you that he is the absolute best of the players heading towards possible UFA status next summer. But it's been over two years now since any team handed out that kind of cash to a free agent, and cash is getting scarcer this season. The league is trying to soft-pedal it, but if you look at attendance figures, they've got a full-blown crisis on their hands.

[Erick Estrada]

I know the new US TV deals kick in this season but I can't see the salary cap going up much for as long as it takes for attendance to get back to normal levels. There's a lot of half empty building right now and it may take a while before it gets back to pre-pandemic levels. We may see some teams try and cut salary if they can't sell tickets.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

At that price, I'd have kept Kane and let Toews go.

Would you have traded him before his last season, or simply let him walk as a UFA?

Because I doubt they win the Cup in 2015 without Toews playing if you trade him, nor if he's simply playing out the last year of his contract.

Plus imagine the fans revolt if they treated their captain that way when he was still an excellent player who routinely shut down the oppositions best players. He was instrumental in the Hawks upset win vs. Anaheim that year, when the came back from a 3-2 deficit largely based on how Toews handled the Getzlaf line.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I agree. I think he ends up the odd man out, because it just doesn't make sense to be paying three left-shot wingers that kind of coin.

I still don't think the market is going to be strong enough for Gaudreau or anyone else to command $11M-plus in free agency, though. We appear to be talking past one another on that point. I fully agree with you that he is the absolute best of the players heading towards possible UFA status next summer. But it's been over two years now since any team handed out that kind of cash to a free agent, and cash is getting scarcer this season. The league is trying to soft-pedal it, but if you look at attendance figures, they've got a full-blown crisis on their hands.

I think Tkachuk is the odd man out because he is less likely to re-sign with Calgary anyway.

Maybe no one gets $11M in UFA. But that doesn't mean the Johnny simply re-signs with Calgary if they pay him the most, whatever that may be. He might be looking for a premium to stay in Canada. Or not.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I agree. I think he ends up the odd man out, because it just doesn't make sense to be paying three left-shot wingers that kind of coin.

I still don't think the market is going to be strong enough for Gaudreau or anyone else to command $11M-plus in free agency, though. We appear to be talking past one another on that point. I fully agree with you that he is the absolute best of the players heading towards possible UFA status next summer. But it's been over two years now since any team handed out that kind of cash to a free agent, and cash is getting scarcer this season. The league is trying to soft-pedal it, but if you look at attendance figures, they've got a full-blown crisis on their hands.

How much coin are you talking about? I'm not very hung up on what side they shoot from, it is three wingers. Of course it would be nice if one were a Centre, but they're not and they haven't ever been. This is how the team is built until a move gets made.

I'm not quite there on the crisis front either. Calgary is one of the Canadian teams with biggest drops in attendance. Are they in full blown crisis?

We should maybe give it more than 19 games to assess the attendance trend. You can't ignore the huge new broadcasting contracts in the US.

[GreenLantern2814]

There’s still a pandemic - people will go back to the rinks when they feel safe.

The attendance “crisis” hasn’t stopped the notoriously cash poor Sens from overpaying for Brady, or the Blackhawks from giving Seth Jones $9.5M, or the Oilers paying Nurse $9M.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

There’s still a pandemic - people will go back to the rinks when they feel safe.

I don't know how to break this to you, but COVID is not going away. And for better or worse, some of the changes in society the last two years will wind up being permanent.

[garenflames]

At this point I am really hoping Giroux signs a large extension with the flyers. Then hopefully they can't fit Johnny in. If that doesn't happen then I think he ends up in Philly. I read online that gaudreaus wife is a nurse in philly as well (or at least was).. Just seems all way too obvious

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

How much coin are you talking about? I'm not very hung up on what side they shoot from, it is three wingers. Of course it would be nice if one were a Centre, but they're not and they haven't ever been. This is how the team is built until a move gets made.

Some people on CP are talking about paying those three guys close to $30 million in the aggregate. That makes the Leafs look financially responsible.

I'm not quite there on the crisis front either. Calgary is one of the Canadian teams with biggest drops in attendance. Are they in full blown crisis?

Yes. You don't hear about it in the media, but after one year of almost no revenue at all, you can be sure CSEC management are pulling their hair out in private. Historically, they have needed to sell out the building (or close to it) all season to break even, and made their profits from the playoffs – which is one reason why the mandate has always been to get into the playoffs by hook or by crook. Take away a large percentage of that, and you are looking at big, big losses and repeated cash calls to ownership.

We should maybe give it more than 19 games to assess the attendance trend.

Gate revenue in the NHL is mostly driven by season tickets, and I don't see a lineup of people wanting to buy season tickets in mid-season. Is that even a thing?

Walkup crowds come and go; you can't project solid revenue based on those. If you're going to have empty seats in the arena, every owner would rather have those seats sold and paid for in advance of the season. This year, that's not happening.

You can't ignore the huge new broadcasting contracts in the US.

Actually, you can. That ‘huge’ contract from ESPN is no bigger than the Canadian contract from Rogers. And a big chunk of that is simply replacing the old U.S. broadcasting deal. It's not all found money.

[aaronkarlpatton]

Originally Posted by garenflames

At this point I am really hoping Giroux signs a large extension with the flyers. Then hopefully they can't fit Johnny in. If that doesn't happen then I think he ends up in Philly. I read online that gaudreaus wife is a nurse in philly as well (or at least was).. Just seems all way too obvious

I thought the same thing for the same reasons, but his wife moved here and is pursuing her nursing career in Calgary

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[442scotty]

Originally Posted by aaronkarlpatton

I thought the same thing for the same reasons, but his wife moved here and is pursuing her nursing career in Calgary

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Really?..That would be awesome if confirmed

[garenflames]

Originally Posted by aaronkarlpatton

I thought the same thing for the same reasons, but his wife moved here and is pursuing her nursing career in Calgary

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Hope that’s true! Any Calgary hospital should be giving her whatever job she wants!! And pay her whatever she wants lol

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Some people on CP are talking about paying those three guys close to $30 million in the aggregate. That makes the Leafs look financially responsible.



Yes. You don't hear about it in the media, but after one year of almost no revenue at all, you can be sure CSEC management are pulling their hair out in private. Historically, they have needed to sell out the building (or close to it) all season to break even, and made their profits from the playoffs – which is one reason why the mandate has always been to get into the playoffs by hook or by crook. Take away a large percentage of that, and you are looking at big, big losses and repeated cash calls to ownership.



Gate revenue in the NHL is mostly driven by season tickets, and I don't see a lineup of people wanting to buy season tickets in mid-season. Is that even a thing?

Walkup crowds come and go; you can't project solid revenue based on those. If you're going to have empty seats in the arena, every owner would rather have those seats sold and paid for in advance of the season. This year, that's not happening.



Actually, you can. That ‘huge’ contract from ESPN is no bigger than the Canadian contract from Rogers. And a big chunk of that is simply replacing the old U.S. broadcasting deal. It's not all found money.

Sorry but the US rights contract is a significant increase from the prior deal. Here is a quote from the NY Times

"The sum from the two deals represents more than double the approximately $300 million that the N.H.L. had been receiving from NBC and ESPN, which had been paying $100 million for various rights — including the ability to show games on its streaming service — before last month’s deal."


Yes attendance is down but little early to be calling it full blown crisis. The Seattle check went through BTW so the cash calls probably haven't started yet.

You're right $30 million for those three is too much. This is the roster that has been constructed though.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by aaronkarlpatton

I thought the same thing for the same reasons, but his wife moved here and is pursuing her nursing career in Calgary

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This is very good to hear.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Sorry but the US rights contract is a significant increase from the prior deal. Here is a quote from the NY Times

"The sum from the two deals represents more than double the approximately $300 million that the N.H.L. had been receiving from NBC and ESPN, which had been paying $100 million for various rights — including the ability to show games on its streaming service — before last month’s deal."

Before COVID, the NHL's revenues topped out at $5.09 billion according to Statista. The increase on the new deal represents 6 percent of that. Attendance is down more than 8 percent from pre-pandemic levels so far (according to Sound Of Hockey), and 10 markets are down by more than 10 percent – four by more than 20 percent. Only four markets have shown attendance increases, and one of those is Ottawa, which had miserable attendance even before the pandemic.

A lot of teams are going to be bleeding money this year.

Yes attendance is down but little early to be calling it full blown crisis. The Seattle check went through BTW so the cash calls probably haven't started yet.

That cheque amounted to less than $22 million per team. I guarantee you that every team in the league lost more than that by paying a full year's salaries to the players in 2020-21 with virtually no gate revenue. The money is already gone.

You're right $30 million for those three is too much. This is the roster that has been constructed though.

Then they need to reconstruct it.

[Strange Brew]

Attendance down 8% in the first 20 games is the farthest thing I can imagine from a crisis. Especially in light of the circumstances.