Andrew Mangiapane's upside

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

William Karlsson comparison comes to mind when I think about Mangiapane.

After scoring 43 goals in one season, he got a 1 year $5.25M contract. The following season he put up 24 goals, and then signed an 8 year contract worth $5.9M AAV.

I'll say Mangiapane > Karlsson, but it doesn't seem like a crazy comparison. Does an 8 year contract worth $6-$7M look about right?

No I think you're still looking at $5 million-$5.5 million.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I'm guessing when Tre talked with Mange and his agent in his previous contract, he did lay out the possibility that if Eat Bread continues his progress, then he has the opportunity to really get paid after two years if he's confident in his ability. I'm not sure Tre predicted it'd go this well for Mange, but now that it has, he's going to get paid.

If I were to hazzard a guess, and if Mange likes it here, I can see something like an 8X$5.5M type contract.

I would be happy with an 8 X 5.5 signing. Get it done, Tre!

[Monahammer]

I could see Andrew opting for the bet on yourself option again and doing a 1x 6ish depending on how his goal scoring totals end up. I agree that W Karlsson is the most comparable player in recent history. It would be nice to lock him up for longer but IMO Mangi will look at it as potentially leaving too much on the table.

On the other side, might be able to lure him with guaranteed riches... 8x 6.5 million is a lot of scratch.

[Scroopy Noopers]

8 years. That’s all I care about. 8 years for this guy. Please and thank you, with sugar on top.

[Knightslayer]

If you were 25 and a 13th round draft pick with everything you touch going in, are you really going to bet on yourself or just take about $40 million guaranteed?

I don't see any way Mangiapane takes a 1 year deal. He's fought a long way and will want to secure a deal to give him and his family some secured income.

Not many 25 year olds with a career high of 32 points betting on themselves. I could see it with a younger player that was a high draft pick but IMO would be silly for Mangiapane to take a 1 year deal. Anything can happen.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

William Karlsson comparison comes to mind when I think about Mangiapane.

After scoring 43 goals in one season, he got a 1 year $5.25M contract. The following season he put up 24 goals, and then signed an 8 year contract worth $5.9M AAV.

I'll say Mangiapane > Karlsson, but it doesn't seem like a crazy comparison. Does an 8 year contract worth $6-$7M look about right?

The one major difference here is that pre-Vegas, Karlsson had nobody stats. There really was a risk that he was a flash in the pan for VGK.

The last two years prior to this one, Mangiapane has still produced at around a 27 goal pace. Even go back half a year from now and you can probably dig up some twitter posts about how he's the most underrated player in the NHL due to his fancy stats

There is a serious risk with a bridge deal for CGY that he just continues to produce at an elite level, and suddenly you have to pay him in that Marner tier.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

If you were 25 and a 13th round draft pick with everything you touch going in, are you really going to bet on yourself or just take about $40 million guaranteed?

I don't see any way Mangiapane takes a 1 year deal. He's fought a long way and will want to secure a deal to give him and his family some secured income.

Not many 25 year olds with a career high of 32 points betting on themselves. I could see it with a younger player that was a high draft pick but IMO would be silly for Mangiapane to take a 1 year deal. Anything can happen.

I agree, which is why I see this contract being very interesting and can really go many different ways. Does he take the guaranteed 8 year contract at a lower hit, or bank on himself being even better, and taking a shorter contract for an even bigger payday. If I were guessing, I'm would lean towards him preferring the long term security after having worked so hard to get to where he is, and having the real hot season so far. That's why I think an 8 year contract around that $5.5M range is definitely a possibility. Heck, Tre might even be able to convince him to sign for $5M for 8 years.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The one major difference here is that pre-Vegas, Karlsson had nobody stats. There really was a risk that he was a flash in the pan for VGK.

The last two years prior to this one, Mangiapane has still produced at around a 27 goal pace. Even go back half a year from now and you can probably dig up some twitter posts about how he's the most underrated player in the NHL due to his fancy stats

There is a serious risk with a bridge deal for CGY that he just continues to produce at an elite level, and suddenly you have to pay him in that Marner tier.

You really believe there is a risk he will command $11 million?

Let me ease your mind, there is 0 chance that happens.

[Monahammer]

Easy to know when I have forgotten to log in these days. The threads are derailed, filled with absolutes, and mostly non sensical.

Mangi has bet on himself in the past. He talked about betting on himself. I think there's a very solid chance he does it again, especially if the flames come in at a low ball for longer term, i.e. 5 mil x 5 or 6.

Again, assuming he gets 30+ goals on the season.

[Funkhouser]

My contract predictions:

8x$6.1M for Bread
Kylington is harder. I predict 5x$5.3M
Johnny gets 8x$8.9M

If Tkachuk wants to be here...8x$8.9M (but Hanafin or Monahan have to go)
If he doesn't want to be here, he will be traded

[The Cobra]

I think it's almost impossible to make an educated guess as to how the Mangiapane contract comes out.

I think the term will depend a lot on what AAV Mangiapane would accept for the desired term.

I don't think it will be 8 years, that's just too much risk for Calgary to swallow.

So, I think it will be 5-6 years in the $5-5.5M range.

I think Mangiapane will appreciate the lifetime security it affords him.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Easy to know when I have forgotten to log in these days. The threads are derailed, filled with absolutes, and mostly non sensical.

Mangi has bet on himself in the past. He talked about betting on himself. I think there's a very solid chance he does it again, especially if the flames come in at a low ball for longer term, i.e. 5 mil x 5 or 6.

Again, assuming he gets 30+ goals on the season.

Nobody cares about your ignore list, stop mentioning it.


$5 million is not a low ball offer for a 50 point player.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I think it's almost impossible to make an educated guess as to how the Mangiapane contract comes out.

I think the term will depend a lot on what AAV Mangiapane would accept for the desired term.

I don't think it will be 8 years, that's just too much risk for Calgary to swallow.

So, I think it will be 5-6 years in the $5-5.5M range.

I think Mangiapane will appreciate the lifetime security it affords him.

I agree with you and the bold sounds about right to me.

I just don't see the Flames doing 8 years unless it means a reduced cap hit. Five to six years, and $25 - 30M is a pretty enticing number for a 26 year old (when he signs) 6th round pick that doesn't yet have 100 NHL points.

I could also see a 3 or 4 year deal, that leaves room for one more good contract after it. Maybe 3 X $5.9M or thereabouts

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I agree with you and the bold sounds about right to me.

I just don't see the Flames doing 8 years unless it means a reduced cap hit. Five to six years, and $25 - 30M is a pretty enticing number for a 26 year old (when he signs) 6th round pick that doesn't yet have 100 NHL points.

I could also see a 3 or 4 year deal, that leaves room for one more good contract after it. Maybe 3 X $5.9M or thereabouts

The more I hear players talk about their contracts the more I realize it’s the total number they think about, not the annual salary, whereas we all get fixed on AAV.

They also talk about taxes. I wonder if the team should offer some names of really good tax advisors. I’m always told the tax difference between here and places like Fla and Nev isn’t great, but players mention it all the time. It’s clear from their escrow comments they don’t really understand finances.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The more I hear players talk about their contracts the more I realize it’s the total number they think about, not the annual salary, whereas we all get fixed on AAV.

They also talk about taxes. I wonder if the team should offer some names of really good tax advisors. I’m always told the tax difference between here and places like Fla and Nev isn’t great, but players mention it all the time. It’s clear from their escrow comments they don’t really understand finances.

I definitely think they look at total money. I don't care what my AAV is, I care that I am making $30M over the next 5 years (or whatever the number is).

As for taxes, the agents are fully aware of what they require taxwise. The issues are the same for all players, more or less, depending on which side of the border you're on. But otherwise, it's just details. (and by agents, I mean their agencies - i.e. they have people)

[Gaskal]

Probably Mark Stone give or take another year, so yeah better lock him up ASAP!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1453024166123237379

https://twitter.com/user/status/1401629004260646915

https://twitter.com/user/status/1349444650940178435

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I definitely think they look at total money. I don't care what my AAV is, I care that I am making $30M over the next 5 years (or whatever the number is).

As for taxes, the agents are fully aware of what they require taxwise. The issues are the same for all players, more or less, depending on which side of the border you're on. But otherwise, it's just details. (and by agents, I mean their agencies - i.e. they have people)

I don’t have as much confidence in agents as you do. First, they make money no matter what the tax advantage is. Second, they aren’t even engaged to provide tax advice, or even recommend tax advisors. Third, they repeat the stuff players and some media do on tax advantages in certain states, which I keep getting told isn’t correct. Fourth, they make dumb decisions all the time (see Bobby Orr’s Trump ad).

I think the tax strategies have to get pretty fancy to overcome press like this:

https://nhltradetalk.com/lightning-h...r-maple-leafs/

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don’t have as much confidence in agents as you do. First, they make money no matter what the tax advantage is. Second, they aren’t even engaged to provide tax advice, or even recommend tax advisors. Third, they repeat the stuff players and some media do on tax advantages in certain states, which I keep getting told isn’t correct. Fourth, they make dumb decisions all the time (see Bobby Orr’s Trump ad).

I think the tax strategies have to get pretty fancy to overcome press like this:

https://nhltradetalk.com/lightning-h...r-maple-leafs/

The agents themselves aren't tax experts.

But they have tax experts on their teams. You can't provide financial advice without including tax management, you just can't. It's one of the most important aspects of every financial decision you make. For professional athletes, tax management would be the #2 issue, after 'get me as much money as you can'.

And when you have cross-border issues, tax management only becomes that much more crucial. For all of our cross-border clients, tax management is the single most important thing after whatever it is they do for a living. And it only gets more complicated for pro athletes.

When you have to file in both countries, you simply can't do it without professional help. And all 700 NHLers have the same issues. So any player that isn't being taken care of, needs to fire their agent immediately (I doubt there are any)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The agents themselves aren't tax experts.

But they have tax experts on their teams. You can't provide financial advice without including tax management, you just can't. It's one of the most important aspects of every financial decision you make. For professional athletes, tax management would be the #2 issue, after 'get me as much money as you can'.

And when you have cross-border issues, tax management only becomes that much more crucial. For all of our cross-border clients, tax management is the single most important thing after whatever it is they do for a living. And it only gets more complicated for pro athletes.

When you have to file in both countries, you simply can't do it without professional help. And all 700 NHLers have the same issues. So any player that isn't being taken care of, needs to fire their agent immediately (I doubt there are any)

Sorry, that’s just not how they operate. Agents don’t provide financial advice. It’s not in their mandate. They don’t have tax guys on their “team”. In fact they don’t really have teams at most of these agencies. It’s more like a partnership of a bunch of independent actors. They run pretty lean organizations.

At best they might have some tax guys they recommend. But their commission is on the total cash, not after tax. So they don’t care.

Apparently the feeling is that they don’t take advantage of tax laws:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inve...high-canadian/

Alan Walsh (yeah I know) has said that he puts tax planners on the case and Newport says they have advisors, but as far as I can tell this is higher level stuff than most run of the mill financial planners get into.

[Shazam]

NHL players are employees, so there's very little they can do to lower their tax burden.