Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’m not faulting Gaudreau that much in the POs when everyone underperformed. I’m just not blaming his linemates. Seems like a cop out to me.

Gaudreau has led the team in playoff scoring once, and finished one point behind Bennett and Monahan another time.

There are so many variables for why the Flames have had spectacularly bad playoff performances.

Glen Gulutzan wasn’t up to the job.

Brian Elliott wasn’t good enough.

The Ducks were a terrible matchup for a team whose sole elite player is 160 lbs.

Dougie wasn’t the dominant force we thought he was.

Bill Peters wasn’t up to the job.

They missed a chance to end one game in OT like 9 seconds before the Avs scored.

Monahan always has an injury that nerfs his effectiveness/his general passive style being unsuited to playoff hockey.

Could be a lot of things. All of them, and more.

To me, Johnny has been constant as the northern star since he joined the roster.

I have no apprehensions paying him. He’s as good as they get, short of McDavid/Sid.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’m not faulting Gaudreau that much in the POs when everyone underperformed. I’m just not blaming his linemates. Seems like a cop out to me.

I don't think it's a cop-out, but I also think every playoff has been different.

Hudler was pretty awful in the 2015 playoffs, after being our MVP all season. Monahan was okay for a second year pro, but he wasn't really 1C level vis-a-vis teams that had legit 1Cs in Henrik Sedin and Ryan Getzlaf.

The pair of Monahan and Ferland played very well in the 2017 playoffs, and I thought Gaudreau was actually the third best player on that line. But either way, John Gibson stoned every chance that went his way in that series.

In the 2019 playoffs, it's tough to even talk about forwards because our three of our top four defensemen (Giordano, Hanifin, Hamonic) were playing some of the worst hockey of their career. However I felt Lindholm was pretty invisible on that line, and it wasn't a surprise that the only goals that Gaudreau's line produced came when Bennett was promoted to that line in his place. I think Lindholm played better on Backlund's line. I wasn't impressed with Monahan or Gaudreau. What I do remember though is that Gaudreau had a strong final game, but the score didn't reflect that.

In the 2020 playoffs, I thought the entire Gatorade line was pretty bad and really shouldn't even have been together at that point. That said, towards the end it seemed like Gaudreau was heating up, and his final game was yet again probably his best game. It felt like if Talbot didn't let the team down with a 3-0 lead, Gaudreau would have been far more productive for the final games of the series. My biggest takeaway from the 2020 playoffs though, was how much Rieder-Backlund-Mangiapane struggled as a line. It wasn't just poor percentages... it was being outplayed. The second line really missed Matthew Tkachuk.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’m waiting for a while before I do it, and maybe even PO performance. He’s not a UFA until July 1. If he is PPG but does zip in the POs I have a serious think coming.

I tend to agree, but the closer he gets to UFA, the more likely he waits to see what else is out there. That’s a dangerous game.


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[chedder]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If he says “I only sign for $11.6Mx 8”, you fax him the contract.

That's a tough one. I don't know. Unless free agency is bonkers I don't see any team offering that much. And nobody but the Flames can offer 8 years correct?

Despite the argument that he hasn't been bad in the playoffs I want a playoff superstar for that kind of money.

[Mathgod]

I guess we could change the thread title to "Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, and Kylington Signing Watch Thread"

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If he says “I only sign for $11.6Mx 8”, you fax him the contract.

I drive him to the airport.

$11.6? Thats ridiculous. He will be lucky to get $9 million.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

I guess we could change the thread title to "Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, and Kylington Signing Watch Thread"

Yeah I'm almost hoping they prioritize a long contract for Mangiapane at this point

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

I drive him to the airport.

$11.6? Thats ridiculous. He will be lucky to get $9 million.

You don’t seriously think Johnny’s only $700k better than Brady Tkachuk.

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

You don’t seriously think Johnny’s only $700k better than Brady Tkachuk.

One is 22 and one will be 29 when contract starts.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

One is 22 and one will be 29 when contract starts.

And one is a UFA. That there will absolutely be a bidding war for.

Brady Tkachuk is Blake Coleman compared to Johnny Gaudreau. He’s a 0.63 PPG player. Who’s off to a 0.58 pace to the start of this year.

Rantenan is getting $9.25, without a Canadian market premium which we’ll need to pay.

Panarin got $11.6 when he was all of one year younger.

But Gaudreau is going to be lucky to get 9.

No.

Whoever gets him is going to be lucky if the cap hit is starts with a $10, and I’d give him the extra $1.6M to make sure he doesn’t leave.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

You don’t seriously think Johnny’s only $700k better than Brady Tkachuk.

Brady Tkachuk is massively overpaid for what he's accomplished so far. The Senators are praying he develops into a player worth the money.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Brady Tkachuk is massively overpaid for what he's accomplished so far. The Senators are praying he develops into a player worth the money.

Right, but that’s what they’re paying him. It doesn’t matter if he’s not worth it. Johnny’s not worth $700K more than that - he’s worth $3M more.

Rantanen is the better comparable player, and he got $9.25 as an RFA. If he was a free agent, he’d get more.

He’s an $11M player on the open market.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Right, but that’s what they’re paying him. It doesn’t matter if he’s not worth it. Johnny’s not worth $700K more than that - he’s worth $3M more.

No, he really isn't. If someone pays $100,000 for a 30-year-old Lada, that doesn't make a new Corolla worth $150,000. It just makes the Lada buyer an idiot.

(To be clear: I am not comparing Brady Tkachuk to a Lada. I'm just saying that one bonkers transaction does not commit anyone else in the market to make similar deals.)

Rantanen is the better comparable player, and he got $9.25 as an RFA. If he was a free agent, he’d get more.

He’s an $11M player on the open market.

I still have my doubts about that, simply because of cap constraints. Not only are half the teams in the league over the cap right now, attendance has plummeted in a lot of markets. I wouldn't be surprised if the cap actually goes down next year because of that – in which case nobody is getting $11 million on a new deal.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

No, he really isn't. If someone pays $100,000 for a 30-year-old Lada, that doesn't make a new Corolla worth $150,000. It just makes the Lada buyer an idiot.

(To be clear: I am not comparing Brady Tkachuk to a Lada. I'm just saying that one bonkers transaction does not commit anyone else in the market to make similar deals.)



I still have my doubts about that, simply because of cap constraints. Not only are half the teams in the league over the cap right now, attendance has plummeted in a lot of markets. I wouldn't be surprised if the cap actually goes down next year because of that – in which case nobody is getting $11 million on a new deal.

Elite players are going to continue to get their money.

Marner is getting $10.9M - he’s more productive than Gaudreau by career PPG.

Tavares: $11M in UFA.

Panarin: $11.6M in UFA.

Bobrovsky: $10M in UFA - yes, he’s a goalie, but he’s an elite 2x Vezina winner.

Eichel: $10M RFA

Matthews: $11.6M RFA

Johnny puts butts in seats. He’s worth the price of admission.

Philly could swap him for Giroux at $10.5M and save $5M just by not bringing back Ristolainen.

Anaheim has $14M coming off the cap next year and they’re already $11.6M under now.

The Red Wings are set to gain $10.5M just with the departures of Dekeyser and Leddy, and they also have $11M in cap already.

The Kraken will have the room for him -$8M in cap now, plus another $9+ off with Gio expiring, plus a couple forwards. Their owners will love the idea of stealing a franchise player off a division rival.

That’s four teams that have the cap for him, and all can offer different pitches to him.

That’s a bidding war, and that’s a recipe for an $11M player.

Even if you’re hoping to get him for $10M, it’s not worth the extra meat shield $1M buys you to lose your franchise player.

[dissentowner]

You do whatever it takes to keep JG. Trade Tkachuk for young cost controlled assets and that gives you the cash to also keep Eat Bread and Kylington.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You do whatever it takes to keep JG. Trade Tkachuk for young cost controlled assets and that gives you the cash to also keep Eat Bread and Kylington.

Simply letting Zadorov ($3.75M) and Pitlick ($1.75M) walk, they can afford Johnny’s raise. If they gave him every dime Zadorov and Pitlick earned this year, they’d be paying him $12.25M.

Trading Tkachuk and trading/buying out Monahan pays for Bread and Kylington.

Ritchie, Stone, Richardson, Lewis and the Brouwer buyout give an extra $4.75M.

They have the money.

Their new arena has been green lit.

It would be some kind of bad faith to lose Johnny Gaudreau.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Elite players are going to continue to get their money.

Marner is getting $10.9M - he’s more productive than Gaudreau by career PPG.

Signed in 2019.

Tavares: $11M in UFA.

Signed in 2018.

Panarin: $11.6M in UFA.

2019.

Bobrovsky: $10M in UFA - yes, he’s a goalie, but he’s an elite 2x Vezina winner.

2019.

Eichel: $10M RFA

2018.

Matthews: $11.6M RFA

2019.

At present there are 13 players in the NHL with cap hits of $10 million or more: those you mentioned plus McDavid (2018), Karlsson (2019), Doughty (2019), Toews (2015), Kane (2015), Price (2018), and Kopitar (2016).

Not one contract with an eight-figure cap hit was signed in the off-season of 2020 or 2021. Unless league revenues somehow take a big upswing between now and the end of this season, I don't anticipate any such contracts being handed out in 2022 either. Those contracts were a product of a good economy and an expectation that the cap would continue to rise significantly. That expectation is gone with the ’Vid.

I expect to see a dynamic here that is quite similar to what Norman Spinrad once said about the publishing business:

Originally Posted by Norman Spinrad

In boom times, when the writers have the power, editors do well too and aren't that much concerned with the greed of their suppliers, since they're only spending the money of a faceless corporation and their status in the corporate pecking order is partially determined by the size of the corporate line of credit. Everyone loves everybody in Fat City.

But when times get a little tough, and the corporate powers that be put the inevitable squeeze on, the job of the editor becomes to pass that squeeze on down to the writers, who have nowhere to pass the diminishing buck except their discontent or ire, and editors tend more to be perceived as the class enemy. When the going gets tough, the tough may get going, but when times get tough, even creampuffs get a little meaner. Nobody loves anybody in a jungle.

For ‘writers’ read ‘players’, for ‘editors’ read ‘GMs’. The GMs who counted coup in the good times by handing out gobsmackingly huge contracts, if they haven't been fired already, are now in a phase where they count coup by shaving pennies off the budget wherever they can. They know that the cap won't rise fast enough to inflate away their dumb decisions, so if they have to do something stupid, they will do it in the opposite direction.

Since the advent of COVID, the hockey business has been going through a sharp contraction, and while it is likely enough to rebound in the long run, the short run will be painful indeed. Taylor Hall took one in the chops by selling into a buyer's market, taking a 25-percent haircut from his last contract. The NHL is still a gate-driven league, and until crowds at the games return to normal, we're not going to see a return to the days when GMs and owners were happy to hand out long-term cap-busting contracts.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Signed in 2019.



At present there are 13 players in the NHL with cap hits of $10 million or more: those you mentioned plus McDavid (2018), Karlsson (2019), Doughty (2019), Toews (2015), Kane (2015), Price (2018), and Kopitar (2016).

Not one contract with an eight-figure cap hit was signed in the off-season of 2020 or 2021. Unless league revenues somehow take a big upswing between now and the end of this season, I don't anticipate any such contracts being handed out in 2022 either. Those contracts were a product of a good economy and an expectation that the cap would continue to rise significantly. That expectation is gone with the ’Vid.

I expect to see a dynamic here that is quite similar to what Norman Spinrad once said about the publishing business:



For ‘writers’ read ‘players’, for ‘editors’ read ‘GMs’. The GMs who counted coup in the good times by handing out gobsmackingly huge contracts, if they haven't been fired already, are now in a phase where they count coup by shaving pennies off the budget wherever they can. They know that the cap won't rise fast enough to inflate away their dumb decisions, so if they have to do something stupid, they will do it in the opposite direction.

Since the advent of COVID, the hockey business has been going through a sharp contraction, and while it is likely enough to rebound in the long run, the short run will be painful indeed. Taylor Hall took one in the chops by selling into a buyer's market, taking a 25-percent haircut from his last contract. The NHL is still a gate-driven league, and until crowds at the games return to normal, we're not going to see a return to the days when GMs and owners were happy to hand out long-term cap-busting contracts.

Taylor Hall didn’t get a massive contract because Taylor Hall isn’t good enough to warrant it. He was going to be 30 when his deal started, he was on his fourth team in three years, he’s often injured, he’s a career -49, and there are lots of reasons to think his game will decline as he gets older.

He’s not a cerebral player - it took him three attempts to pass his boating license exam.

Gaudreau is going to be THE prize of free agency if he gets there - nobody but Malkin comes close, and Malkin obviously has age and health working against him.

The new TV deal with ESPN/TNT has just started.

COVID is abating, and a player who makes fans want to come to the building is going to be in demand as much as it ever was if not more so.

Seattle, Anaheim and Detroit can all give him $11M and still be $10M under the cap.

The New Jersey Devils, with $8M in cap space as we speak, have only to let PK Slewfoot go and they can give Gaudreau $9M without changing their internal budget at all.

So if he can get $9M to play in his own backyard, how are we getting him for the same amount?

The Devils just gave Dougie $9M.

More people are going to show up at the Prudential Centre to watch Johnny than Dougie.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Gaudreau is going to be THE prize of free agency if he gets there - nobody but Malkin comes close, and Malkin obviously has age and health working against him.

THE prize of free agency in 2020 got less than $10 million a year. Same in 2021.

The new TV deal with ESPN/TNT has just started.

ESPN is paying $400 million a year to the league, TNT less. The difference between that and the old contracts doesn't offset the decline in gate receipts.

COVID is abating, and a player who makes fans want to come to the building is going to be in demand as much as it ever was if not more so.

But in market after market, fans don't want to come to the building this year no matter who is playing. The cap should be going down, not up. If the league continues its agreement to keep propping up the cap regardless, that still will be of limited use, because team budgets are going down anyway.

Seattle, Anaheim and Detroit can all give him $11M and still be $10M under the cap.

Neither Seattle nor Detroit is a competitive team at this time. They are not looking for an $11 million star to put them over the top. The Ducks need to keep their powder dry, because they have some terrific players on ELCs who will command big pay rises in the near future.

The New Jersey Devils, with $8M in cap space as we speak, have only to let PK Slewfoot go and they can give Gaudreau $9M without changing their internal budget at all.

So if he can get $9M to play in his own backyard, how are we getting him for the same amount?

If he can only get $9M to play in his own backyard, why do we have to pay him $11M?

The Devils just gave Dougie $9M.

That was the biggest contract handed out last off-season to any UFA who changed teams. The only higher cap hit went to Ovechkin, who is in a class by himself and can't be used as a comparable. And even he took a slight pay cut and remained under $10 million.

More people are going to show up at the Prudential Centre to watch Johnny than Dougie.

That's a nice theory. It's been shown repeatedly, and in many different sports, that fans don't pay money because their team signs a lot of stars; they pay the money because their team wins, and winning is what turns players into stars. The Devils are going to spend their money on what they think gives them the best chance to win. The sentimental value of having a local kid who grew up cheering for one of their most hated rivals is not going to count for much.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

I drive him to the airport.

$11.6? Thats ridiculous. He will be lucky to get $9 million.

If that is all Calgary will offer, he’s as good as gone.

I won’t debate you as to his actual worth, it’s largely irrelevant in Johnny’s case.

This is simply the amount that will get him to forgo UFA. It needs to be $10M plus.


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