[PGT] Habs 4 Flames 2

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Two goals isn’t enough in general, but some nights it has to be

With this team it is going to have to be wayyyy more than it should be, and that isn't fair on the goalie at all. These next 2 games against mediocre teams are pretty close to must win games in terms of not letting a good start slide away.

Now that Lindholm and Mangiapane aren't putting every third shot into the net like they were earlier, the scoring or lack thereof is starting to show. I'm not sure what the answer is with the team backed into cap jail, but it could definitely benefit from a trigger man being injected into the top 6 to give the opposition something different to worry about.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It's a 107 point pace. That gets you in the playoffs every time, full stop.

I'd like to think the standard here is a bit higher than simply making the playoffs.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

With this team it is going to have to be wayyyy more than it should be,

The team has scored:

4+ goals 6 times (6-0-0)
3 goals 2 times (1-0-1)
2 goals 4 times (0-2-2)
1 goal 1 time (0-1-0)
0 goals 0 times

I'm not sure how that fits in the distribution among the league, but I do think an 0-3-2 record when scoring fewer than 3 goals is not usual. I imagine most teams in a playoff spot have won at least one 2-1 game. Would be curious to know if I'm correct:

Records when Scoring Two or Fewer Goals

Carolina 2-0-0
Washington 2-2-1
NYR 2-3-2
Florida 0-0-1
Toronto 1-4-1
Detroit 0-5-1
Tampa 1-3-2
New Jersey 1-2-1

STL 1-1-1
MIN 1-4-0
WPG 0-2-2
EDM 1-1-0
ANA 0-2-0 (scored one in both)
LA 1-4-1
NSH 1-3-1

I'd hope it's just a case of small sample size, because sometimes you DO need to win a game without scoring 3 goals.

[DeluxeMoustache]

I was bored, so I flipped through the scoreboards. Obviously not a huge sample size, but I was curious.

In the past week, for games where one team scores 2 goals, it happened 20 times

6 wins
Isles 2 Jets 0
Flyers 2 Caps 1
Hawks 2 preds 1 (ot)
Canes 2 TB 1 (ot)
Kings 2 Sens 0
Caps 2 Wings 0

And 14 were losses, including a SO

So *if* it turned out that sample mirrored a much larger sample size, then 30% of games where a team scored 2 it should be enough to win.

So if that was representative, a team should be able to win ~1 of 3 when they only score 2

(Probably not exactly, of course)

[Tsawwassen]

Post game links
http://sportsstats.cbc.ca/hockey/nhl...cap139774.html
https://scores.nbcsports.com/nhl/rec...s=3&final=true
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/games/2366815