Jacob Markstrom (is better than Cam Talbot)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dino7c

This thread started as an I told you so after 2 games

And your point is?

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Just a reminder if not for the Flames Markstrom would be in Edmonton right now

This is actually a great point. That would have really sucked.

[afc wimbledon]

One of those rare times when a move helps both teams, the Flames were right to pick him up and the Canucks made the right decision to let him go

[EVERLAST]

As great as JM is playing the team in front of him is doing a great great job as well.

No different than when Kipper was in GOD mode.

When this team can play with pace, purpose and situational awareness I don't think anyone can beat us.

All this team ever needed was a coach that could get them to listen and stop mentally defeating themselves In the middle of their own pity party.

Judas tappdancing priest this has been SO SO SO refreshing having Darryl back .

All the negativity in the preseason was horrible and difficult to digest . This place smelt of verbal diarrhea for awhile having guys at eachothers throats.....not a fun place to come to and hang out.

Go Flames Go.....unfinished business here we come.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Eleven games into the season I would advise both sides of this argument to wait until April before the "I told you so quotes". I'm very happy to see Markstrom come out of the gates hot but he did so last season only for his play to fall off. The hallmark if a great goaltender is consistency so lets wait and see how he fares for the rest of the season maybe?

Agree on the wait for told you so's

But he didn't just fall off magically ... he had a concussion from a pretty big open ice impact.

Bottom line to me is steals vs games he lost for them.

He stole win in Pittsburgh, and while I don't think he lost his team a game per say, he was outplayed by his counterpart in some other games for sure.

That's why I like goals saved above average, it's the best metric publicly available to date. Last year he was negative, this year he's ranked 7th at +6.5

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

And your point is?

I believe the point is that you're about 300 posts too late to tell people not to say ‘I told you so’. That ship sailed before the dock was even built.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's why I like goals saved above average, it's the best metric publicly available to date. Last year he was negative, this year he's ranked 7th at +6.5

I like GSAA a lot as well. However I think it is a stat that needs a bigger sample size than nine games. You can be slightly above average in eight games and have one awful game game where you let in 6 and you'll probably have a negative GSAA.

I like QS (Quality Starts) and RBS (Really Bad Starts) because they actually do treat individual outings as just that.

[CroFlames]

I think we're in pretty real danger of having nice things.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I like GSAA a lot as well. However I think it is a stat that needs a bigger sample size than nine games.

It's a stat derived from goals allowed vs. quality of scoring chances. Both of those numbers, in this case, are based on a much larger sample size than nine.

I like QS (Quality Starts) and RBS (Really Bad Starts) because they actually do treat individual outings as just that.

Whereas this number is, in fact, based on a sample size of nine. (And it reduces every game to a single ternary value, good/bad/indifferent, which means that all the relevant data within each game is thrown away.)

Funny how you use the ‘sample size’ argument when it suits you, and totally ignore it when it does not.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It's a stat derived from goals allowed vs. quality of scoring chances. Both of those numbers, in this case, are based on a much larger sample size than nine.



Whereas this number is, in fact, based on a sample size of nine. (And it reduces every game to a single ternary value, good/bad/indifferent, which means that all the relevant data within each game is thrown away.)

Funny how you use the ‘sample size’ argument when it suits you, and totally ignore it when it does not.

Since you've somehoe turned this into an ad hominem - let me put it like this:

GSAA over a large sample size is probably useful to prescribe future results, although goalies still have high variance. It is probably the best stat to compare goalies' value.

GSAA over a small sample size sort of describes past results, but can be easily skewed.

QS over a multi-season sample size is useful to describe (but not predict) consistency. It won't tell you if a goalie can pitch 20 shutouts in a season, but it can tell you if a goalie can perform to a league average level with better consistency than other goalies.

QS over a small sample size is ONLY to describe the results over a small sample size, while taking out the "did the skaters score more goals than the goalie allowed" part out of wins - nothing more, nothing less.

They all describe different things. Since we're nine games into Markstrom's season, I think QS is the only stat useful to describe those nine games.

I am not using not to predict the next 50 games.
I am simply saying that Markstrom has not been very consistent so far, across nine games, that he deserves to be placed on a pedestal.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Since you've somehoe turned this into an ad hominem - let me put it like this:

GSAA over a large sample size is probably useful to prescribe future results, although goalies still have high variance. It is probably the best stat to compare goalies' value.

GSAA over a small sample size sort of describes past results, but can be easily skewed.

QS over a multi-season sample size is useful to describe (but not predict) consistency. It won't tell you if a goalie can pitch 20 shutouts in a season, but it can tell you if a goalie can perform to a league average level with better consistency than other goalies.

QS over a small sample size is ONLY to describe the results over a small sample size, while taking out the "did the skaters score more goals than the goalie allowed" part out of wins - nothing more, nothing less.

They all describe different things. Since we're nine games into Markstrom's season, I think QS is the only stat useful to describe those nine games.

I am not using not to predict the next 50 games.
I am simply saying that Markstrom has not been very consistent so far, across nine games, that he deserves to be placed on a pedestal.

Quality start works better to me if you exclude overtime. No idea if that changes the end results, but Markstrom's given up 3 OT goals when save percentages are much lower.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I believe the point is that you're about 300 posts too late to tell people not to say ‘I told you so’. That ship sailed before the dock was even built.

It's November 8. Not late at all as it's way too early to declare anything.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agree on the wait for told you so's

But he didn't just fall off magically ... he had a concussion from a pretty big open ice impact.

Bottom line to me is steals vs games he lost for them.

He stole win in Pittsburgh, and while I don't think he lost his team a game per say, he was outplayed by his counterpart in some other games for sure.

That's why I like goals saved above average, it's the best metric publicly available to date. Last year he was negative, this year he's ranked 7th at +6.5

I think he's a good goaltender but he's always struggled with consistency. He's not alone as it's one of those positions that can vary from year to year as there's a big mental aspect to the position. I have no issues writing off last season as an aberration but not after only 11 games.

[1qqaaz]

I criticized this signing while fully expecting Markstrom to be great the first few years.
If Markstrom is still good when he's 34, 35, 36 years old, then I'll very happily admit that I was wrong.

Same logic applies to the Coleman signing.

Now with that said, if the Flames were to win the cup with Markstrom as the goalie, I wouldn't care about the rest of the contract because the one year would justify it all.

[dino7c]

If you worry about the ends of contracts you will never have good players

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I like GSAA a lot as well. However I think it is a stat that needs a bigger sample size than nine games. You can be slightly above average in eight games and have one awful game game where you let in 6 and you'll probably have a negative GSAA.

I like QS (Quality Starts) and RBS (Really Bad Starts) because they actually do treat individual outings as just that.

It's interesting if you look at quality starts he's 7th (same as GSAA) with 5 (tied with many).

Also interesting that the GS% doesn't diminish with a Really Bad Start ... it's still a % of games deemed a quality start.

Markstrom is 5-0-4 at 56% with no really bad starts.
Jon Gibson is 5-2-2 and still 56% with two really bad starts.

Not saying you were arguing any of this, but interesting.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I like GSAA a lot as well. However I think it is a stat that needs a bigger sample size than nine games. You can be slightly above average in eight games and have one awful game game where you let in 6 and you'll probably have a negative GSAA.

I like QS (Quality Starts) and RBS (Really Bad Starts) because they actually do treat individual outings as just that.

RFA starts

Really ####ing awesome starts...he deserves more than a QS against the Pens

You said Markstrom wasn't a difference maker...its the 2nd post in this thread. He is a difference maker. Flames record with and average goalie would be worse.


You are spinning all kinds of things and weird stats

5-1-3 1.65 .942 4SO

Early Vezina candidate

/

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dino7c

. Flames record with and average goalie would be worse.

It would?
We're 2-0 with Vladar in net

Maybe an average goalie loses the Penguins game. Or maybe they win it 4-3. Can't say. But maybe an average goalie wins the Nashville, Anaheim, Ducks games.

Flames dropped 11 goals on the rangers, no shutout needed.

Flames dropped 4 goals on the flyers, no shutout needed.

Red wings game was a Detroit team totally outclassed by Calgary.

A slightly different version of Flames team was 2nd in the NHL with 107 points a couple years ago with Smith lettinf in Beachballs half the year and David Rittich.

Enjoy the Markstrom shutouts. But don't pretend he is the primary reason for the Flames record.

Originally Posted by dino7c

You are spinning all kinds of things and weird stats

QS are not a wierd stat. You can find me posting about them pretty deep into history.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Enjoy the Markstrom shutouts. But don't pretend he is the primary reason for the Flames record.

Agreed I think.

I think the system is, but the system needs at least an average goaltender to make it work, and to date they've had an above average one.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

It would?
We're 2-0 with Vladar in net

Maybe an average goalie loses the Penguins game. Or maybe they win it 4-3. Can't say. But maybe an average goalie wins the Nashville, Anaheim, Ducks games.

Flames dropped 11 goals on the rangers, no shutout needed.

Flames dropped 4 goals on the flyers, no shutout needed.

Red wings game was a Detroit team totally outclassed by Calgary.

A slightly different version of Flames team was 2nd in the NHL with 107 points a couple years ago with Smith lettinf in Beachballs half the year and David Rittich.

Enjoy the Markstrom shutouts. But don't pretend he is the primary reason for the Flames record.




QS are not a wierd stat. You can find me posting about them pretty deep into history.

Imo its pretty certain an average goalie loses the Pittsburg game...allowing goals changes the whole complexation of games too...Markstrom has made huge saves when it was tied or up a goal or two that if not made would have totally swung momentum.

Its telling for me that Markstrom is tying 100 year old records for shutouts with ridiculous numbers yet you aren't even willing to say he is a difference maker.

I never said the only difference maker

First his numbers weren't elite...now that they are new measures are coming up

Vladar has a 2.94 and .891
Markstrom has a 1.65 and .942

bit of a difference no?

That's not to say I hope Vladar does poorly

Next he will win the Vezina and it will be...big deal he will be overpaid in 5 seasons lol