Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by edslunch

$2/litre would hurt a lot of people. On the other hand, we need to be burning less of the stuff - is this enough to change people’s behaviour? Drive less, trade down to a more efficient vehicle, lower your thermostat a few degrees, do some energy renovations…

Probably means those that are saving money just save less. Those who can't afford it take the bus. Etc.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

the impact on the price of food will be something else that will be harder to side step.

We eat oil. The last time oil prices surged beyond $100, we saw food riots all over the world.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

We eat oil. The last time oil prices surged beyond $100, we saw food riots all over the world.

I don’t remember that. Is there a good summary somewhere of that?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don’t remember that. Is there a good summary somewhere of that?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007...d_price_crisis

[Mr.Coffee]

Oil going up too high will be super bad for Alberta as it will only accelerate society’s desire to get off it, which, fair enough.

OPEC holds all the cards now.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Oil going up too high will be super bad for Alberta as it will only accelerate society’s desire to get off it, which, fair enough.

OPEC holds all the cards now.

I’ll take our chances. We are in this position because society’s desire to get off it.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Oil going up too high will be super bad for Alberta as it will only accelerate society’s desire to get off it, which, fair enough.

OPEC holds all the cards now.

Maybe. If we're only going to produce oil for the next 30-50 years I'd rather (as an Alberta taxpayer) we get $150/bbl than $40/bbl

[Mr.Coffee]

That’s true. Alberta should still introduce a PST and start to save / invest the royalty income though.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

That’s true. Alberta should still introduce a PST and start to save / invest the royalty income though.

Or they should just tax corporations at appropriately, benchmarking across North American, Alberta undercharges by like 4 points.

And for personal taxes maybe it would be better if we just charged them at time of income, instead of gift wrapping a huge structural advantage to those with the resources to hold savings, and garner returns from passive investments, then wondering why economic mobility is a problem.

And if our concern is not capturing tax income from tourists, maybe we could just charge hospitality taxes on hotels / attractions.

There are a bunch of solutions that exist that aren't temporally regressive, like sales taxes. (Rebate programs are a problem too, because often they way they functionally work out is the government or the business are holding money destined for people who are carrying high interest debt waiting for that money to be returned, adding fuel to the problem as the interest payments while waiting for the rebate outstrip the rebate itself).

[Slava]

What about just not taxing essentials though? We do this with the GST/HST and that (along with rebates) seems to work quite well.

[CliffFletcher]

The most egalitarian countries in the world all have VAT/sales taxes of 20-25 per cent. Necessities are taxed at a lower rate.

[Fuzz]

Another benefit of high VAT is that it reduces waste. You are less likely to buy something new, if reusing/repurposing/buying used is that much cheaper.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Another benefit of high VAT is that it reduces waste. You are less likely to buy something new, if reusing/repurposing/buying used is that much cheaper.

I don't think that will work well though with our lack of right to repair laws.

If both issues were fixed it would help for sure.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Azure

I don't think that will work well though with our lack of right to repair laws.

If both issues were fixed it would help for sure.

I don't think most people use things until they stop working. They get something shiny and new because they want it. Not saying repairabilty isn't an issue, just that it's only one piece of as purchasing decision.

[V]

So with all this bullish talk, am I supposed to be buying Canadian energy stocks now? I usually have all of my money in a passive index fund over the entire US economy, but should I be buying Cenovus now or something?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by V

So with all this bullish talk, am I supposed to be buying Canadian energy stocks now? I usually have all of my money in a passive index fund over the entire US economy, but should I be buying Cenovus now or something?

If you live in Calgary your real estate value is tied to O+G. Depending on your job it is to a varying degree you job is dependant on O+G. So your question is should you become even less diversified?

If you are an index investor it’s generally because you don’t believe you have the ability to pick stocks or don’t have the ability to pick someone who will out perform the market. So if that is the case I don’t see why you would change strategy.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by V

So with all this bullish talk, am I supposed to be buying Canadian energy stocks now? I usually have all of my money in a passive index fund over the entire US economy, but should I be buying Cenovus now or something?

You can always invest in something like NNRG if individual companies are not your thing, but you believe in the Canadian sector. This is what I have a good chunk of money in. The manager, Eric Nuttall, is also a good guy to follow on Twitter to keep tabs on the Canadian sector.
https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/nine...v-toggle=14208

Personally I also have money in some Offshore companies (RIG, VAL, NE), but that is more speculative (I think as more and more countries impose regulations on oil exploration inland, offshore will become more attractive).

[timun]

Originally Posted by #-3

Or they should just tax corporations at appropriately, benchmarking across North American, Alberta undercharges by like 4 points.

But what about the AlBeRtA aDvAnTaGe?!

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Slava

What about just not taxing essentials though? We do this with the GST/HST and that (along with rebates) seems to work quite well.

Making paternalistic judgements about how the working poor should be spending their money doesn't really fit well with the libertarian modern right wing philosophy does it?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by #-3

Making paternalistic judgements about how the working poor should be spending their money doesn't really fit well with the libertarian modern right wing philosophy does it?

It isn’t a paternalistic judgement. It isn’t being proposed to incentivize spending on essentials.