[Signing] Habs extend Nick Suzuki

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

A 60 point pace is not the same as actually getting 60 points. It's a smaller sample size.

This is especially relevant for someone like Suzuki who has only played 127 regular season NHL games in his career.

Kailer Yamamoto had a 79 point pace in 19-20. But he only had 26 points that season. He wasn't paid as such.

I'm aware that it isn't the same - but because of a shortened season(s) it is the best approximation we have. I guarantee this is used by agents in negotiations. Also, Kailer Yamamoto is a cherry picked argument - he only played 27 NHL games and played 23 in the AHL - Obviously a player that spent half the season in the minors isn't getting paid like a full time NHLer - and that is a much smaller sample size than say 50+ games, so even more irrelevant to this argument.

Suzuki played 71 and 56 games the last two seasons and didn't spend a day in the minors. Clearly, not the same thing.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

A 60 point pace is not the same as actually getting 60 points. It's a smaller sample size.

This is especially relevant for someone like Suzuki who has only played 127 regular season NHL games in his career.

Kailer Yamamoto had a 79 point pace in 19-20. But he only had 26 points that season. He wasn't paid as such.

What pace was he at the season before he signed his last 1 year deal?

[GioforPM]

Like a lot of things, context means a lot. A player who is performing well and had it interrupted by injury can be expected to keep up the pace, depending on the injury.

Mind you, 60 points is not much for that money. Though people make arguments here about Gaudreau being the best offensive player on the team and therefore worth X dollars. Suzuki is arguably the best offensive player on his team, give or take a Toffoli.

[Glorious #1]

I know his father Rob. Very happy for their family today. They are kind and down to earth people.

Nick will prove to be a bargain by the end of this deal.

[Snuffleupagus]

Brady Tkachuk's camp is smiling

[Textcritic]

There is probably needed a slight adjustment to how people value contracts relative to production. Where I have seen it often suggested that every additional million dollars should buy 10 points, I think this figure is now already too low. A 100-poont player is probably worth over $12 m in today's NHL, and likewise $8.0 m is likely the going rate moving forward for 60-70 pt. centres.

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[AustinL_NHL]

Holy hell

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Stillman16

Yes, and really, probably could have done a bridge deal, and still come out ahead, assuming they didn't lose him!

Consider a bridge deal for 3X$5M ($15M over contract) and if proves worth it, a deal afterwards if he earns it of 5X10M (another $50M) total $65M paid...only $2M total paid more than this deal--the second contract could be an 8 year x $10M too if he'd sign it, doesn't change the comparable. If he doesn't earn it, the second contract is lower, and saves the team.

Only real gain for the team here, is that the cap hit would be lower in years 3 and onward.

Gain for Suzuki, is he could still sign another contract after this one too, as he will only be 31 when deal expires...if he doesn't earn another contract, he has banked $63M or how ever much he gets by time he is bought out.

Firstly, you might lose the player.

And that second contract if he earns it is not 5 years, it's 8 years covering some years where he in decline.

There is a premium to be paid when you get the players prime years, and only his prime years, signed in advance.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Thete is probably needed a slight adjustment to how people value contracts relative to production. Where I have seen it often suggested that every additional million dollars should buy 10 points, I think this figure is now already too low. A 100-poont player is probably worth over $12 m in today's NHL, and likewise $8.0 m is likely the going rate moving forward for 60-70 pt. centres.

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Also, two-way right handed centers don't grow on trees. You're going to pay a premium for that.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

What pace was he at the season before he signed his last 1 year deal?

That is the risk. Let’s say the Oilers sign him to 6x6 after that small sample size and he then paces at the 31pts he was on pace for this year.

This works out great for the Habs if Suzuki is just scratching the surface but if not this could be like Gomez 2.0

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

That is the risk. Let’s say the Oilers sign him to 6x6 after that small sample size and he then paces at the 31pts he was on pace for this year.



This works out great for the Habs if Suzuki is just scratching the surface but if not this could be like Gomez 2.0

I think the deal is high, and the risk is also significant. It is probably the best that Montreal could do given the circumstances: no interest in a bridge deal, higher tax rate, Suzuki's very young age, etc.

But when I watch him I feel less concerned that he will "Gomez-out." Suzuki sure looks like he could be a player, and does not really resemble Yamamoto's extremely fortuitous play from 2020.

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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by sketchyt

Also, two-way right handed centers don't grow on trees. You're going to pay a premium for that.

Unless his name is Elias.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Unless his name is Elias.

Yeah, that sure has turned out to be one hell of a deal. What a coup.

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[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think the deal is high, and the risk is also significant. It is probably the best that Montreal could do given the circumstances: no interest in a bridge deal, higher tax rate, Suzuki's very young age, etc.

But when I watch him I feel less concerned that he will "Gomez-out." Suzuki sure looks like he could be a player, and does not really resemble Yamamoto's extremely fortuitous play from 2020.

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I think the Habs just living through an offer sheet situation helped expedite not putting themselves in that position again and getting the deal done. The last time the Habs went 8 years was with Subban who has been a near boat anchor the last couple of years. Always risk with these long term deals.

I think this is an overpay but I think it is one that makes sense for the Habs all things considered. The deal that brought him there was certainly the best move Bergevin has made as GM

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Brady Tkachuk's camp is smiling

I would think this costs Tkachuk - he was offered 8x8.

Suzuki is a better player, playing a more valuable position, in the highest-taxes market in the game, who just went to a Final.

And he didn’t get 8x8.

[WCW Nitro]

He has 23 playoff points in 32 games before the age of 22, this contract is a gonna be a bargain very soon.

[Enoch Root]

Massive over-payment

Hoping that the player will grow into it is just stupid. If he does become a legit #1, great - then you can pay him. But giving a kid this kind of money and hoping you outsmart the system is a bad gamble.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

A 60 point pace is not the same as actually getting 60 points. It's a smaller sample size.

This is especially relevant for someone like Suzuki who has only played 127 regular season NHL games in his career.

Kailer Yamamoto had a 79 point pace in 19-20. But he only had 26 points that season. He wasn't paid as such.

It's very different though.

Suzuki did it over a full season. Sure it was only a 56 game season, but that was a full season.

It wasn't a late call up, it wasn't because of injury, it was a full season.

Yamamoto was an AHLer that came up and played 26 games with the guy that won league MVP that season. Very different comparables, and not at all the same type of thing.

If you look at Suzuki's entire body of work including the playoffs this starts to make more sense, especially since it gets you closer to the 82 GP threshold for each COVID shortened season.

2019-2020:

GP: 81
Points: 48

2020-2021

GP: 78
Points: 57

So pretty good progression season over season, he's only 22 years old, and still has room to grow in his game. Honestly he's done better at the NHL level than Brady Tkachuk so far and nobody would even bat an eyelash if he got this exact contract.

It's a bit risky but if he ends up getting 70 points this season then it's will end up working fine for Montreal because a season like that probably would have pushed him to around $8-$8.5M on a 8 year deal.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I would think this costs Tkachuk - he was offered 8x8.

Suzuki is a better player, playing a more valuable position, in the highest-taxes market in the game, who just went to a Final.

And he didn’t get 8x8.

Disagree, Suzuki plays center but isn't very good away from the puck or on faceoffs, Tkachuk scores more even without a top center and brings those ever needed intangibles. I doubt anyone would take Suzuki over Tkachuk.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Disagree, Suzuki plays center but isn't very good away from the puck or on faceoffs, Tkachuk scores more even without a top center and brings those ever needed intangibles. I doubt anyone would take Suzuki over Tkachuk.

Tkachuk doesn't score more though.

Tkachuk has 80 points in 127 games over the last two seasons (0.63 PPG)

Suzuki has 82 points in 127 games over the last two seasons (0.65 PPG), and has been even better in the playoffs with 23 points in 32 games (0.72 PPG).

Also according to advanced stats Suzuki has been one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL the last two seasons.



Still some work to do to be worth this contract, but it's worth the bet to try and sign him now to get him locked up long term IMO.