[Signing] Rangers and Zibanejad agree on contract extension (8 yrs, $8.5 mil AAV)

[Heavy Jack]

It’s maddening seeing the NYR and Panthers lock up their big ticket players and BT continues to let days slip away with Johnny. Really was hoping this would have been tidied up ahead of the start of the season.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The market is indeed a huge factor. My main issue is that both of those guys are centres and 200 foot players. MZ also shoots right which gets you a few more dollars in the league. There aren’t many LW comparables for Johnny. JG may want to use Rantanen who I mentioned before, but Rantanen has a much higher PPG outside of his rookie year (of course with a much better centre) and also happens to be a huge person. I think the best comparable might be Kessel, with an inflation factor.

The inflation factor on Kessel’s deal puts Johnny at $10.1368M per season. His contract, $8M AAV, when signed was 12.44% of the salary cap.

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

It’s maddening seeing the NYR and Panthers lock up their big ticket players and BT continues to let days slip away with Johnny. Really was hoping this would have been tidied up ahead of the start of the season.

I still believe Johnny’s fate in Calgary is tied to Jack Eichel. Without acquiring Eichel, I don’t think the Flames continue down their current path…because they flat out can’t compete at the top of the league without an elite #1 centre.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

We also have to look at both the Zibanejad and Barkov deals and that both of those deals were signed in very desirable locations (and both teams seem better poised to compete long term than Calgary), so any talk that Gaudreau should be less etc, just doesn’t track with me.

Johnny is going to get paid, and I certainly believe it will be north of this $8.5M.

Zibanejad and Barkov are not comparables for Gaudreau, he should be getting less, a lot less than Barkov.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Zibanejad and Barkov are not comparables for Gaudreau, he should be getting less, a lot less than Barkov.

So should Darnell Nurse and Seth Jones, yet here we are.

Barkov is elite at his position, and Johnny is elite at his. Yes, Barkov’s position is more important - but also, Barkov signed in sunny Florida with a contending Panthers team. If the Flames want to extend Johnny, there will be a premium paid…unless Calgary makes some pretty dramatic changes to move the team from a non-playoff team/bubble team to a contending team.

[Jacks]

Nurse and Jones are grossly overpaid, just because someone jumped off a bridge doesn't mean everyone should.

Overpaying Gaudreau isn't going to move the Flames from a bubble team to a contending team, in fact it would do the exact opposite.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Zibanejad and Barkov are not comparables for Gaudreau, he should be getting less, a lot less than Barkov.

He won't get as much as Barkov but again he has better numbers than Zibanejad so how do you negotiate a lower contract in Calgary than New York?

Hopefully the Flames can get Gaudreau in the 8 range.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Nurse and Jones are grossly overpaid, just because someone jumped off a bridge doesn't mean everyone should.

Overpaying Gaudreau isn't going to move the Flames from a bubble team to a contending team, in fact it would do the exact opposite.

Neither is cheaping out on ppg players

Worried about cap? Get rid of Lucic and Gudbranson ect. Don't lose Gaudreau over 1M or so

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He won't get as much as Barkov but again he has better numbers than Zibanejad so how do you negotiate a lower contract in Calgary than New York?

Hopefully the Flames can get Gaudreau in the 8 range.

If you can't then you move on. He should have been extended or traded before his NTC kicked in but here we are.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Nurse and Jones are grossly overpaid, just because someone jumped off a bridge doesn't mean everyone should.

Overpaying Gaudreau isn't going to move the Flames from a bubble team to a contending team, in fact it would do the exact opposite.

The market is the market, regardless of your opinion of it. Johnny is elite, and will be paid as such.

My note about Calgary changing from a bubble/non-playoff into something else was about Calgary not currently having the same negotiating power as Florida and other good teams. You can get players to sign for “less” if you’re selling them on joining/staying on a winning team - Calgary doesn’t have that, whereas Florida/Tampa/Boston etc. do.

[Vinny01]

I think if Calgary lands Eichel it really helps their chances of extending Gaudreau. Johnny would see a superstar center signed for 4 years beyond this one where Johnny could put up a bunch of points and compete. This team is in danger of falling further down the trail of mediocrity and I bet Johnny sees that as much as we all do.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

It’s maddening seeing the NYR and Panthers lock up their big ticket players and BT continues to let days slip away with Johnny. Really was hoping this would have been tidied up ahead of the start of the season.

It's almost like it is easier to get players to re-sign in places like Florida and New York.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jacks

If you can't then you move on. He should have been extended or traded before his NTC kicked in but here we are.

Move on to what? what player of that caliber is coming here for less?

let be guess rebuild...what happens if we are lucky enough to draft good players? cheap out on them when the time comes?

If he wants 10M I agree but the difference between say 7.5-8.5 or whatever is half a Gudbranson. I would rather "overpay" for good players than lose them.

[transplant99]

So since JG entered the NHL he is 4th among LW's as far as points per game. (over 100 games played is the baseline)

Ahead of him are

Artemi Panerin who is getting an aav of 11.6
Brad Marchand who is getting an aav of 6.125
Alex Ovechkin who is getting an aav of 9.5

Just below him are

Jonathon Huberdeau at an aav of 5.9 (new deal coming here as well)
Jamie Benn at an aav of 9.5
Jake Guentzel at an aav of 6.0
Taylor Hall at an aav of 6.0

So its a bit all over the place but if you want JG long term, its gonna be in the 8.5-9M range, even though he may not be as complete a player a few of them. Particularly when you add in the bit more it seems to cost Canadian teams to keep/sign guys like this.

Just the reality of the situation.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The inflation factor on Kessel’s deal puts Johnny at $10.1368M per season. His contract, $8M AAV, when signed was 12.44% of the salary cap.



I still believe Johnny’s fate in Calgary is tied to Jack Eichel. Without acquiring Eichel, I don’t think the Flames continue down their current path…because they flat out can’t compete at the top of the league without an elite #1 centre.

Ouch. That’s too much for either Kessel or Johnny.

ETA: Of course, Kessel’s contract is 15% retained since 2015 , so he’s being paid $6.8 by AZ (and was by Pittsburgh as well). So AZ viewed Kessel as a $6.8M player in 2019 (and so did Pittsburgh in 2015).

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Move on to what? what player of that caliber is coming here for less?

let be guess rebuild...what happens if we are lucky enough to draft good players? cheap out on them when the time comes?

If he wants 10M I agree but the difference between say 7.5-8.5 or whatever is half a Gudbranson. I would rather "overpay" for good players than lose them.

Nobody said to cheap out, big difference between that and overpaying.

Maybe do a rebuild right this time instead of trading away multiple 1st round picks and signing ridiculous UFA contracts for depth players at the first sign of being a playoff team. We are where we are but compounding the mistakes isn't going to make it better.

[dino7c]

Signing Gaudreau between 8-9M isn't overpaying though

A 5M 4th liner is...that is the mistake (Neal)

Imagine the Flames lose Gaudreau because he is 1M too pricey but have 5.25M Lucic next season lol

We think the Bennett thread is bad, wait until Gaudreau leaves and plays with top end talent.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Nobody said to cheap out, big difference between that and overpaying.

Maybe do a rebuild right this time instead of trading away multiple 1st round picks and signing ridiculous UFA contracts for depth players at the first sign of being a playoff team. We are where we are but compounding the mistakes isn't going to make it better.

We don't individually decide what overpaying is though. The market sets market value.

Johnny Gaudreau at $9.5M AAV is not overpaying.

Jarome Iginla signed a 3-year deal in 2005 which paid him 17.95% of the salary cap.

He then signed a 5-year deal in 2008 that paid him 13.92% of the salary cap.

The salary cap is poised to be $82.5M next season. 11.5% of that going to Johnny (9.488M AAV) is not overpaying, and I genuinely believe that would be a very good deal for the Flames.

Artemi Panarin is probably the closest comparison in recent seasons - and he signed in New York for 14.29% of the salary cap at the time of his deal, or $11,642,857 AAV for 7 years. That's New York - one of the historically more desirable locations in the league, and a team poised to be pretty good going forward (so that's winning + location as selling points).

Markets like Calgary generally have to pay a premium, which again - is not "overpaying", it's paying a salary to compensate for the perceived downfalls of the market when compared to other more desirable locations. The key for teams like Calgary is spending the dollars wisely, and not unwisely like investing it in poorly scouted/players with bad underlying numbers (James Neal, Troy Brouwer). Invest market value in your top players, and then challenge your GM to fill out the roster with bargains/hidden gems/young internally developed players.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

We don't individually decide what overpaying is though. The market sets market value.

Johnny Gaudreau at $9.5M AAV is not overpaying.

Jarome Iginla signed a 3-year deal in 2005 which paid him 17.95% of the salary cap.

He then signed a 5-year deal in 2008 that paid him 13.92% of the salary cap.

The salary cap is poised to be $82.5M next season. 11.5% of that going to Johnny (9.488M AAV) is not overpaying.

Artemi Panarin is probably the closest comparison in recent seasons - and he signed in New York for 14.29% of the salary cap at the time of his deal, or $11,642,857 AAV for 7 years. That's New York - one of the historically more desirable locations in the league, and a team poised to be pretty good going forward.

Markets like Calgary generally have to pay a premium, which again - is not "overpaying", it's paying a salary to compensate for the perceived downfalls of the market when compared to other more desirable locations.

Love Gaudreau but he is not comparable to Iginla, one of the greatest wingers ever, probably the best Flame ever.
Panarin is also a better player and is overpaid.
Anyway, I'm moving on from this.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Love Gaudreau but he is not comparable to Iginla, one of the greatest wingers ever, probably the best Flame ever.
Panarin is also a better player and is overpaid.
Anyway, I'm moving on from this.

You're just saying players are better than Johnny - but as pointed out above, very few players have been better than Johnny during Johnny's time in this league.

I was using Iginla to bring up some historical data from a salary cap % perspective, and you're right - Johnny is no Jarome, which is why I had listed Johnny at 11.5% of the cap, whereas Jarome garnered nearly 18% and 14% of the salary cap with his last two deals with Calgary.

You saying Johnny isn't as good as Panarin is debatable to some degree, and I can just as easily say "your evaluation of Johnny Gaudreau is incorrect", but again - I'm not saying Johnny is better than Panarin. I put forward 11.5% for Johnny, whereas Panarin signed for 14.29% - and that 11.5% is also for Johnny signing in Calgary, a less desirable market than New York.

[GioforPM]

I hate using Panarin as a comparable because IMO that was just a stupid contract. Just like you can’t use a bargain contract like Marchand’s. Kucherov is the best winger in the game and he only makes $9.5 on a contract signed only a couple years ago.

So the question is how much of an overpay do you build in for Calgary, and how much of a discount do you ask for because Gaudreau is a lot weaker defensively than most of the top paid wingers? There’s also the PO factor. Gaudreau has had a lot more trouble in the tighter checking POs than Rantanen and obviously Kucherov.