[GDT] Flames @ Abbotsford. 8pm MT. Calgaryflames.com

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Honestly don't know what you're talking about most of the time.

That doesn't surprise me. You're pretty thick in the head most of the time.

Bader has a model that is becoming more and more trusted around hockey circles. What do you have again?

Bader's model is new, and it looks grossly flawed. What do I have again?
Common sense. How anyone can look at the Calgary Flames and say they have the 6th best drafting record or prospects in the league is mind bottling. Just because they drafted a bunch of guys that scored a lot in junior or college doesn't make them a good prospect. His model is not taking into consideration the challenges that each of these prospects faces along the way. Matthew Phillips is the ultimate example of that. Great scorer. Awesome skill set. Unfortunately it was obvious that skillset wouldn't translate to the NHL. Same goes for most of the Flames' prospects. As fun as having a youtube star as a prospect is, the likelihood of him turning into an NHL player are incredibly small.

And I didn't move the goal posts, you did. The assets Buffalo wants are 1st round equivalents. That's recent first round picks, and future first picks. News flash ... recent first round picks are junior aged.

News flash... they are still Flames prospects and count toward our prospect base. Imagine how piss poor our Bader number would be without those guys?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

That doesn't surprise me. You're pretty thick in the head most of the time.



Bader's model is new, and it looks grossly flawed. What do I have again?
Common sense. How anyone can look at the Calgary Flames and say they have the 6th best drafting record or prospects in the league is mind bottling. Just because they drafted a bunch of guys that scored a lot in junior or college doesn't make them a good prospect. His model is not taking into consideration the challenges that each of these prospects faces along the way. Matthew Phillips is the ultimate example of that. Great scorer. Awesome skill set. Unfortunately it was obvious that skillset wouldn't translate to the NHL. Same goes for most of the Flames' prospects. As fun as having a youtube star as a prospect is, the likelihood of him turning into an NHL player are incredibly small.



News flash... they are still Flames prospects and count toward our prospect base. Imagine how piss poor our Bader number would be without those guys?

Huh?

That honestly doesn't make any sense. Didn't say they didn't count. You said I moved the goal posts, I pointed out the junior aged players or future junior aged players are the players Buffalo would pick.

And yes Calgary would lose those players in a trade, but so would any team, and that's generally the top of the prospect pool for any organization.

What is flawed in Bader's system? Would love to know. I can clearly see what's flawed in yours ... anyone that calls their own opinion common sense is already off to a rough start.

And did you find any overtly positive things that I've said that would fit the rose coloured glasses comment?

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

That doesn't surprise me. You're pretty thick in the head most of the time.



Bader's model is new, and it looks grossly flawed. What do I have again?
Common sense. How anyone can look at the Calgary Flames and say they have the 6th best drafting record or prospects in the league is mind bottling. Just because they drafted a bunch of guys that scored a lot in junior or college doesn't make them a good prospect. His model is not taking into consideration the challenges that each of these prospects faces along the way. Matthew Phillips is the ultimate example of that. Great scorer. Awesome skill set. Unfortunately it was obvious that skillset wouldn't translate to the NHL. Same goes for most of the Flames' prospects. As fun as having a youtube star as a prospect is, the likelihood of him turning into an NHL player are incredibly small.



News flash... they are still Flames prospects and count toward our prospect base. Imagine how piss poor our Bader number would be without those guys?

My goodness you are dour. You must be a real treat to watch the games with.

[dissentowner]

What I don't get is how much time the posters who can't stand this roster spend on this forum bitching about how unlikeable this team is. If I had the opinion this team was terrible, the roster totally unlikeable, and the future bleak and hopeless because our prospect pool is a supposed barren wasteland I can think of so many other things I would rather be doing with my time. I don't get it unless the pleasure is out of being negative or stirring the pot and I don't get that either. I would love this to be a place where even when the chips are down or things are not going great we all unite under our love and passion for the Calgary Flames, instead it is like a warzone in here.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And did you find any overtly positive things that I've said that would fit the rose coloured glasses comment?

Well, from the quantity of your posts it is apparent that you can type the words ‘Calgary Flames’ without actually puking through your nose. I guess that in itself is enough to make you an apologist, a homer, rose-coloured glasses, the whole nine yards.

From now on, you must post absolutely nothing but complaints about how the Flames are the worst thing in the history of the universe and can only get worse forever. Omit no complaint, however small or out of date. Drag up mistakes made by management people who are retired, or better yet, dead. Always say the worst thing you can, even if you have to make it up.

About 50,000 years of daily posts should do it. Then, and only then, you can call yourself a true fan as opposed to one of those ignorant homers.

Sir, you must try much harder to do better at being worse.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Bader's model is new, and it looks grossly flawed. What do I have again? Common sense.

Ok, let's play a game. Think about how you talk about Bader's model and the general level of respect you have for it, right?

Ok, keep that in your head.

Now, imagine he didn't have a model. Imagine he was some random guy who had nothing but self-proclaimed "common sense," and instead of being unemotional and objective (because he was basing opinions on a model, even if it was flawed) he was constantly emotional and abrasive, and went on rants about reality and how everyone is wrong and blah blah blah you get the picture, keeping in mind we're talking about a game played for entertainment.

Imagine how much respect that second person would get, and how people would view that person, generally, compared to the first person. So, if you view the first person's opinion poorly, how do you think the second person's opinion would be viewed? In general, imagine how much respect Bader deserves, and then imagine how much less the second person would deserve.

End of the day, it's all a bit tiring. This is all supposed to be fun and entertaining, and though watching posters lose their #### complaining about things that happen in a game put on for entertainment IS fun and entertaining, it has its limits.

My advice would be to enjoy hockey. Some of you make it out to be significantly harder than it is, and seem absolutely determined to make sure that everyone knows it, and that everyone enjoys it as little as you do. It's not an endearing or interesting quality to have. I think what the adults are saying is that it would be nice to enjoy our entertainment again instead of every discussion being derailed by "I'M JUST BEING OBJECTIVE BUT REALITY IS THAT EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE AND WE'RE DOOMED AND EVERYTHING IS BAD AND I HATE THIS TEAM." Scream into a pillow, big dog. Your opinion doesn't matter. It's just negative and annoying for the sake of both. Grow up time.

It's cool to talk about mistakes, or trades that suck, or whatever. Let's all be honest. But it's the extremes. The posters who keep taking every little thing to an extreme rant about the state of the team just look stupid. And I'm kind of over stupid people. Maxed out. Too many, too loud. Let's quiet down the stupid around here and just have a good time, yeah? Maybe? Cool.

[ricardodw]

Which prospect graduated last year? This year? Next year?

Last year in Year d+4 Valimaki went from injured to 3rd pairing in the NHL. His ELC was burnt off.

This year the top prospect that graduated would be Vlader , who has exactly a value of a 3rd round pick.

The other top prospect that graduates is Mackay. The Flames feel he has graduated because he has signed a 2-year one way contract.

Other 2021-22 Calder hopes? Popisil?

Who does Bader (or any other expert) see as making a significant contribution to the Flames over the next couple of years?

Here is a list of what Scott Wheeler put up in the Athletic under Ranking the top 20 Calder Trophy candidates for the 2021-22 NHL season

1. Cole Caufield, RW, 20 (Montreal Canadiens — 15th overall, 2019)
2. Trevor Zegras, C/W, 20 (Anaheim Ducks — 9th overall, 2019)
3. Moritz Seider, RHD, 20 (Detroit Red Wings — 6th overall, 2019)
4. Spencer Knight, G, 20 (Florida Panthers — 13th overall, 2019)
5. Jeremy Swayman, G, 22 (Boston Bruins — 111th overall, 2017)
6. Quinton Byfield, C, 19 (Los Angeles Kings — 2nd overall, 2020)
7. Shane Pinto, C, 20 (Ottawa Senators — 32nd overall, 2019)
8. Jamie Drysdale, RHD, 19 (Anaheim Ducks — 6th overall, 2020)
9. Anton Lundell, C, 19 (Florida Panthers — 12th overall, 2020)
10. Alex Newhook, C, 20 (Colorado Avalanche — 16th overall, 2019)
11. Matt Boldy, LW, 20 (Minnesota Wild — 12th overall, 2019)
12. Philip Tomasino, C/RW, 20 (Nashville Predators — 24th overall, 2019)
13. Nils Lundkvist, RHD, 21 (New York Rangers — 28th overall, 2018)
14. Bowen Byram, LHD, 20 (Colorado Avalanche — 4th overall, 2019)
15. Vladimir Tkachyov, LW/RW, 25 (Los Angeles Kings — undrafted)
16. Victor Soderstrom, RHD, 20 (Arizona Coyotes — 11th overall, 2019)
17. Vasili Podkolzin, RW, 20 (Vancouver Canucks — 10th overall, 2019)
18. Joe Veleno, C/LW, 21 (Detroit Red Wings — 30th overall, 2018)
19. Marco Rossi, C, 20 (Minnesota Wild — 9th overall, 2020)
20. Grigori Denisenko, LW/RW, 21 (Florida Panthers — 15th overall, 2018)
Twelve honorable mentions
Jonatan Berggren, LW, 21 (Detroit Red Wings — 33rd overall, 2018)
Thomas Harley, LHD, 20 (Dallas Stars — 18th overall, 2019)
Ville Heinola, LHD, 20 (Winnipeg Jets — 20th overall, 2019)
Zac Jones, LHD, 20 (New York Rangers — 68th overall, 2019)
Arthur Kaliyev, LW, 20 (Los Angeles Kings — 33rd overall, 2019)
Peyton Krebs, C/LW, 19 (Vegas Golden Knights — 17th overall, 2019)
Connor McMichael, C, 20 (Washington Capitals — 25th overall, 2019)
Cole Perfetti, C/LW, 19 (Winnipeg Jets — 10th overall, 2020)
Lucas Raymond, RW, 19 (Detroit Red Wings — 4th overall, 2020)
Lukas Reichel, LW, 19 (Chicago Blackhawks — 17th overall, 2020)
Nick Robertson, LW, 20 (Toronto Maple Leafs — 53rd overall, 2019)
Cole Sillinger, C, 18 (Columbus Blue Jackets — 12th overall, 2021)


Would you make a roboust argument that Vladr/Mackey/Popisil/Pelletier should be considered as a better Calder candidate than various players on this list?

PS Mackey looks to be the only roster possible Flame that does not need to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I'm not angry, just don't like being called a chicken little by an apologist. Also don't like being told my stance is crap, especially when all of the advanced bull#### that is rammed down our throats from the apologists amounts to nothing but more of the same futility. Bongo knows this. If we were having this discussion over a beer the exact same things would have been said, then we'd laugh and say at least we aren't Oiler fans. I really hope we get to say that again this season.

It’s Bingo

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Who does Bader (or any other expert) see as making a significant contribution to the Flames over the next couple of years?

I think Bader's model recognizes some of the value in the team's later picks in the last few years.

Pushes the team up in overall value. May not turn out to be blue chippers, but more NHL depth coming along based on USHL, Junior and Euro scoring etc.

The likes of Whynot, Jordan, Beck, Poirier, Francis, Kerins, Solovyov have all had more value than when they were taken.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Bader has the Flames 6th, so yeah if they give up four pieces they'd be like any of the teams in that area, not worse in his opinion ... which has a lot more in it than you're Chicken Little schtick.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1421117051733610496

Now beyond that I'm not that far from you on the AHL guys, not high at all, but that nor the roster was the topic. It was prospect systems, of which the junior aged players are likely the ones being coveted by Buffalo.

Not likeable.
No hope.
Not good.

And you wonder why I call you out for the sky is falling crap on a weekly basis? It gets old man.

Even if you were 100% right which you aren't 100% of the time it would be a tiresome and bleak way to live.

I have an account to his site and, without saying too much, Bader is really high on Valimaki, Coronato and Zary, especially Valimaki.

I gotta say, I am too so it’s nice to see some positive information out there on the Flames.

He also sees Werner as a guy with a strong chance of becoming an NHL goalie in some capacity.

I also tend to agree that Werner has some upside that we kind of forget because of Vladar (who I was ecstatic to hear we traded for).

Tre did a good job bringing in those two and Coleman, although I obviously wish Coleman was on a shorter term.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

It’s Bingo

It's Bongo.

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think Bader's model recognizes some of the value in the team's later picks in the last few years.

Pushes the team up in overall value. May not turn out to be blue chippers, but more NHL depth coming along based on USHL, Junior and Euro scoring etc.

The likes of Whynot, Jordan, Beck, Poirier, Francis, Kerins, Solovyov have all had more value than when they were taken.

Bader's model is flawed because he over emphasizes these guys. In this train of thought, Kylington would overly inflate his worth and draft because he provided so much value, being ranked so highly, then being taken in the 2nd. Right? Guys get picked late because they have gross flaws in their games. Yes, every now and then one of the hits, but late picks rarely turn into anything of consequence for good reasons. Do I hope that some of these guys pop? Hell yes. I place them on the depth chart and hope they surprise and jump ahead. But for the most part they continue to develop on their arc and never turn into anything. I figure that Zary, Pelletier, Kuznetsov, and Wolf have a future in a Flames' sweater. Francis is a guy that I'm getting a little more excited about. The rest? Wait and see. Hopeful, but try to remain grounded with the knowledge of going through that grind.

[united]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think Bader's model recognizes some of the value in the team's later picks in the last few years.

Pushes the team up in overall value. May not turn out to be blue chippers, but more NHL depth coming along based on USHL, Junior and Euro scoring etc.

The likes of Whynot, Jordan, Beck, Poirier, Francis, Kerins, Solovyov have all had more value than when they were taken.

While you are correct on Jordan, Francis, Kerins, and Solovyov ranking higher in Bader's NHLer probability model than their draft position, Beck (191) and Poirier (86) were selected higher than Bader's model rated them and Whynot was taken exactly where Bader's model rated him. You could replace those three with Huckins and Ciona from the most recent draft as both ranked higher in Bader's model than where they were drafted.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Ok, let's play a game. Think about how you talk about Bader's model and the general level of respect you have for it, right?

Ok, keep that in your head.

Now, imagine he didn't have a model. Imagine he was some random guy who had nothing but self-proclaimed "common sense," and instead of being unemotional and objective (because he was basing opinions on a model, even if it was flawed) he was constantly emotional and abrasive, and went on rants about reality and how everyone is wrong and blah blah blah you get the picture, keeping in mind we're talking about a game played for entertainment.

Imagine how much respect that second person would get, and how people would view that person, generally, compared to the first person. So, if you view the first person's opinion poorly, how do you think the second person's opinion would be viewed? In general, imagine how much respect Bader deserves, and then imagine how much less the second person would deserve.

End of the day, it's all a bit tiring. This is all supposed to be fun and entertaining, and though watching posters lose their #### complaining about things that happen in a game put on for entertainment IS fun and entertaining, it has its limits.

My advice would be to enjoy hockey. Some of you make it out to be significantly harder than it is, and seem absolutely determined to make sure that everyone knows it, and that everyone enjoys it as little as you do. It's not an endearing or interesting quality to have. I think what the adults are saying is that it would be nice to enjoy our entertainment again instead of every discussion being derailed by "I'M JUST BEING OBJECTIVE BUT REALITY IS THAT EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE AND WE'RE DOOMED AND EVERYTHING IS BAD AND I HATE THIS TEAM." Scream into a pillow, big dog. Your opinion doesn't matter. It's just negative and annoying for the sake of both. Grow up time.

It's cool to talk about mistakes, or trades that suck, or whatever. Let's all be honest. But it's the extremes. The posters who keep taking every little thing to an extreme rant about the state of the team just look stupid. And I'm kind of over stupid people. Maxed out. Too many, too loud. Let's quiet down the stupid around here and just have a good time, yeah? Maybe? Cool.

great post.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

It's Bongo.



Bader's model is flawed because he over emphasizes these guys. In this train of thought, Kylington would overly inflate his worth and draft because he provided so much value, being ranked so highly, then being taken in the 2nd. Right? Guys get picked late because they have gross flaws in their games. Yes, every now and then one of the hits, but late picks rarely turn into anything of consequence for good reasons. Do I hope that some of these guys pop? Hell yes. I place them on the depth chart and hope they surprise and jump ahead. But for the most part they continue to develop on their arc and never turn into anything. I figure that Zary, Pelletier, Kuznetsov, and Wolf have a future in a Flames' sweater. Francis is a guy that I'm getting a little more excited about. The rest? Wait and see. Hopeful, but try to remain grounded with the knowledge of going through that grind.

Why do you think anyone would go with your opinion which you call logical, over a data set model that evaluates the entire hockey population with a consistent lens?

I'm happy to discuss the problems with anyone's assumptions within a model, but I won't just dismiss it and follow your view on all things hockey.

I'm just glad things like analytics came along. It was tiresome arguing with you 15 years ago when there wasn't actual data to bring out and show you were barking up the wrong tree.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

It's Bongo.

Ok Lenny

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Why do you think anyone would go with your opinion which you call logical, over a data set model that evaluates the entire hockey population with a consistent lens?

Because that consistent lens flies in the face of professionals who evaluate the players on actual skills, which is all that counts. Your argument is like saying go to WebMD for medical advice instead of going to an actual doctor who knows how to evaluate a patient and make a proper diagnosis. The data set that evaluates the entire population is obviously better than the professional who actually knows what to look for!

I'm happy to discuss the problems with anyone's assumptions within a model, but I won't just dismiss it and follow your view on all things hockey.

The model is flawed because it does not take into consideration actual player skills and weaknesses. There are lots of one or two skill players who put up points, but got drafted late because of their lack of skills. In this model they provide a huge bump to the curve, even though their lack of skill means their game won't translate. It's why teams rely on scouts and not spreadsheets.

I'm just glad things like analytics came along. It was tiresome arguing with you 15 years ago when there wasn't actual data to bring out and show you were barking up the wrong tree.

Yeah, I know. Still waiting on that incredible turnaround those "analytics" had you convinced was just around the corner and tried to sell to everyone. Snake oil. But keep selling it. There's lots of suckers out there who think those "statistics" mean something when clearly they don't.

[PepsiFree]

If advanced stats are WebMD then Lanny is an anti-vaxxer on YouTube

[Monahammer]

Pigs, mud, and all that jazz.

Stop feeding him with a pitchfork and start ignoring him.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Because that consistent lens flies in the face of professionals who evaluate the players on actual skills, which is all that counts. Your argument is like saying go to WebMD for medical advice instead of going to an actual doctor who knows how to evaluate a patient and make a proper diagnosis. The data set that evaluates the entire population is obviously better than the professional who actually knows what to look for!



The model is flawed because it does not take into consideration actual player skills and weaknesses. There are lots of one or two skill players who put up points, but got drafted late because of their lack of skills. In this model they provide a huge bump to the curve, even though their lack of skill means their game won't translate. It's why teams rely on scouts and not spreadsheets.



Yeah, I know. Still waiting on that incredible turnaround those "analytics" had you convinced was just around the corner and tried to sell to everyone. Snake oil. But keep selling it. There's lots of suckers out there who think those "statistics" mean something when clearly they don't.

I'll never ignore what actual scouts say. I will hardily ignore what you have to say, especially when I know it's not coming from an honest place, it's coming from a need to stir things up on the internet.

But you get more information if you have hard data as well. And trends matter, production at certain levels often translates, or at very least you can see what the % of players that translate have to say.

I'm not selling anyone anything. I just report what's available and nothing more.

Your fear of simple event counting stats has always astounded me.

[bdubbs]

I don't understand this thing and therefore I must fear it!