2021 Blue Jays Season Thread

[flames_fan_down_under]

Jays win!!!!!

[flamingred89]

Haha you suck Gardner!

Win!!! Let ####ing go!

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Awesome stuff. Just keep rolling.............this is a lot more fun than a few weeks ago.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Hey Jays, I see you!

[flames_fan_down_under]

That Yankees team looked miserable even when the game was tied.

[Roof-Daddy]

It's so nice to watch games that matter.

And they really matter now because of this amazing turn of fortunes.

[Hockey]

Originally Posted by Hockey

So why can't the Jays ever go on a big win streak? Yankees had a 12 game winning streak, Rays are 8 game win streak, didn't the BoSox have a big one at the start of the year? Time for the Jays to go on one

Jays haven't lost since this post.


Sorry they lost that day, but have won 7 in a row after that.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Well now you’ve jinxed it

[Blaster86]

#### like that is why no one likes Canucks fans.

[Hockey]

My first post is the reason why they are on this win streak. My 2nd post will have nothing to do with them if they lose.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by Hockey

My first post is the reason why they are on this win streak. My 2nd post will have nothing to do with them if they lose.

At least you’re consistent.

[mrkajz44]

Nice little feature on 538 about the Jays:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-playoffs/

It uses run differential and pythagorean record to say the Jays are one of the most talented team in years that are at risk of missing the playoffs. I think that oversimplifies things a bit, but it has gotten me thinking. Are the Jays:

1) Just a little unlucky in sequencing, where they tend to cluster hits together in blowout wins and can't get balls to drop in close games
2) Not as good as we think as they run up scores in blow out games by feasting on easier pitching, but can't get it done against better pitchers when the game is close

I go back and forth on which one I think is true. I'm a big believer that luck plays a way larger roll in sports than anyone gives it credit, so I usually think that it's just bad luck. Thoughts?

[flames_fan_down_under]

I think it's just really a combination of two things:

They have had some seriously bad luck in some games.

Their relief pitching, which has been well documented, has been mostly very bad. Really up until this recent streak. All of a sudden the Richards, Mayza, Romano set up looks like a legitimate 1-2-3 shut down unit. Richards with the amazing change up. Mayza the lefty and Romano with the high velo. And with expanded rosters, Merryweather back, and a total wildcard of Pearson in the pen is in it's best shape all season.

Yes the Jays hitter have had a hard time producing runs later in games, especially in closer game, but a lot of that was only an issue because our 'pen was always coughing up leads.

Somewhat unrelated: I think the Yankees are not a good team. I know they are on a losing streak and things always look worse when they're in a rut. However, you look at their overall team stats:17th in OPS, 11th in HR, 24th in BA, 23rd in SLG, 22nd in RBI, according to fangraphs defensively they are 18th. The only thing they have is pitching. In 2019 they had young studs like Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Urshela was all of sudden a 20 HR guy. Fast forward two years later and they're old, Gleyber Torres looks nothing like the guy who hit 30+ homers in 2019, Aroldis Chapman can't throw strikes anymore, Urshela is back to being a replacement level player, LeMahieu is signed until 2026 and is not looking like the back to back silver slugger he was. It's basically Stanton and Judge and a bunch of question marks in that batting order.

[Skaloper]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Nice little feature on 538 about the Jays:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-playoffs/

It uses run differential and pythagorean record to say the Jays are one of the most talented team in years that are at risk of missing the playoffs. I think that oversimplifies things a bit, but it has gotten me thinking. Are the Jays:

1) Just a little unlucky in sequencing, where they tend to cluster hits together in blowout wins and can't get balls to drop in close games
2) Not as good as we think as they run up scores in blow out games by feasting on easier pitching, but can't get it done against better pitchers when the game is close

I go back and forth on which one I think is true. I'm a big believer that luck plays a way larger roll in sports than anyone gives it credit, so I usually think that it's just bad luck. Thoughts?

Definitely number 2) as it's clutch hitting and pitching that the Jays have been lacking. Compare them against Seattle who has a -53 run differential yet they are right beside the Jays in the standings. It's clear that when close games are on the line they have not been as consistent throughout the entire season as the rest who are comfortably in the playoffs.

On a side note I will suggest 3) Unlucky season of them not playing the entire season at Rogers Centre. The Jays have a home record of 22-22 while they were in Florida/Buffalo and are 17-8 at Rogers Centre so far this year. If they had gone 28-16 instead of 22-22 they would be where the numbers suggest.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Skaloper

Definitely number 2) as it's clutch hitting and pitching that the Jays have been lacking. Compare them against Seattle who has a -53 run differential yet they are right beside the Jays in the standings. It's clear that when close games are on the line they have not been as consistent throughout the entire season as the rest who are comfortably in the playoffs.

On a side note I will suggest 3) Unlucky season of them not playing the entire season at Rogers Centre. The Jays have a home record of 22-22 while they were in Florida/Buffalo and are 17-8 at Rogers Centre so far this year. If they had gone 28-16 instead of 22-22 they would be where the numbers suggest.

I completely agree that they're early season "home game" situation was less than ideal and likely put a huge mental strain on the players. It's such a long season and to have these external variables of not even being in your home stadium, would be mentally taxing.

But I do, respectfully, think too much is being made about "clutch" hitting. The only reason so many scenarios in which the Jays needed a clutch hit exist in the first place is because the pen had coughed up so many leads. Hold onto lead, no need for clutch hit! Simple.

The Jays have the 4th best OPS in the majors when they are behind in the score. Seattle, 27th best. When the score is tied? Jays have 2nd best OPS in the majors. I won't dismiss the fact that they do struggle late in games but I don't think those issues would matter at all if the bullpen wasn't a bottom 5 pen. The Giants, Rays, Brewers and Jays are all around the same OPS in late/close games. Three of those teams are off to the playoffs, the Jays are fighting for their lives! Again, a steady 'pen in maybe 15% of the Jays games and this is different story.

Also just a little bit of info: Seattle has the second best relief pitching staff in the majors. They also are not a good hitting ball club, so their ability to cling to tight leads is magnified by this, hence the number of 1 run games in which they win. Get a small lead and let your elite bullpen do the rest. The Jays get leads all the time, their pen just never held onto them.

[flamingred89]

Bo knows leadoff!

[KelVarnsen]

Bo!

[Skaloper]

Well we know the strike zone is big tonight. Jays better also get that call.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Buck and Pat make a good point about Pete Walker. How valuable is Walker to the Jays franchise. He turned Marco Estrada into a very effective pitcher, same with Happ, he might have Ray turned into a Cy Young winner. I would say Walker is more valuable to the franchise than Montoyo.

[KelVarnsen]

If it’s the bottom of the 9th inning. In a tie game. With the bases loaded. There’s two outs. And it’s game 7 of the World Series.

I’d still bean Gardner