Seven Days in Kabul

[Itse]

Originally Posted by 81MC

Showing my ignorance, but how likely is it that,
A) ISIS and the Taliban work together, under a veil of ‘moderation’?

In some situations some Taleban could choose to work together with some ISIS, especially since neither organization is a strict top-down operation, and local commanders have a lot of say over their own troops.

Overall however they have conflicting ideals and goals.

ISIS can be called a doomsday cult. They're fighting to help bring about the Apocalypse where prophet Jesus will help the muslims defeat the army of Rome lead by the antichrist, or something to that tune. They're fighting a global war to purify the world of all infidels, and they consider shia muslims infidels.

To ISIS, Afghanistan is just one place to have that fight in.

Taleban in 2021 in comparison are a nationalistic ultra-conservative movement who's goal is to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan specifically and free Afghanistan from foreign control. (Including getting rid of foreign things like Christians and women's rights and some ethnic groups.) While they used to be a strictly sunni movement 20 years ago, these days they are at least making the effort to look like a coalition with room for both shia and sunni.

To Taleban, ISIS (or ISIS-K which is the local branch) is a foreign, armed militia with incompatible ideologies and no respect for the authority of the Taleban government. They are very much one of the many enemies the Taleban leaderships has.

B) ISIS takes control over the territory the Taliban has already taken back, and the entire nation is more of a horror show than it with the Taliban in power?

Taleban currently outnumber ISIS in Afghanistan something like 15:1, so military ISIS is not taking over. (Taleban is also likely better armed, has better troops and is more motivated to fight the ISIS than the other way around.)

Things could change though.

C) The Taliban battle each other for control for the foreseeable future?

In short, very possible.

Afghanistan has been at war with itself for 40 years now. While all wars end eventually, it doesn't look like peace is around the corner.

Taleban 2021 is a coalition of pretty different interests. Some of the groups are much more hardline and not really that different from ISIS, while some (including the current leadership) are relatively moderate and forward looking. The Taleban was on the brink of civil war with itself just a few years ago, and there's a very good chance that at least some bloodshed will happen within Taleban as the moderates and radical conservatives fight for power.

This could also, theoretically, lead to a split where some of the conservatives switch sides and join with ISIS.

In any case, shifting alliances is extremely common in civil wars, and Afghanistan is no exception to this. Now that this current Taleban coalition won this particular fight, the situation has changed and many commanders will be looking around considering what's the best coalition for them going forward.

Even without possible Taleban infighting, the civil war in Afghanistan is far from over. Taleban have already lost control of some of the territory they conquered while taking Kabul to forces that I guess could most easily be described as "representing the former government", and there's been some independent uprisings against Taleban.

Since Afghanistan is a country where in many areas almost every home has an assault rifle and a man who knows how to use it, it doesn't take much to form a new group to protect local interests.

Afghanistan is just a really difficult country to unite through war, in large part just because of it's geography. Take Panshjir valley for example, where the main opposition to Taleban is currently based at. The valley has two entrances, and this is the "easy" one:

http://www.traveladventures.org/coun...r-valley13.jpg

Soviet Union tried to conquer Panshjir valley nine times before giving up, so I don't see the Taleban taking it by force either.

I feel like a dummy saying this, but it seems like the Taliban would be preferable to ISIS? I believe they’re not allied, but against a common enemy?

Taleban is absolutely overall less bad than ISIS. Taleban are oppressive and murderous, but at least they have coherent, achievable goals.

It's also a bit of a stretch to even say they have a common enemy, especially now that the US occupation is over.

Taleban is, among other things, against foreign control of their country. ISIS is a movement lead from abroad, so to Taleban right now, ISIS is the enemy (Depending a bit on who you ask though I guess.)

[combustiblefuel]

How are people surprised this was the outcome? It was predictable since day one. You can't complain we occupied then when we withdraw complain. This was ALWAYS going to happen.

[red sky]

I dislike my brothers so this seems appropriate.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by combustiblefuel

How are people surprised this was the outcome? It was predictable since day one. You can't complain we occupied then when we withdraw complain. This was ALWAYS going to happen.

How is anyone surprised at the outcome and the resurgence of the Taliban? Nobody here is really saying it. Probably if we go back to any threads on Afghanistan, we'll see that probably most of us would have predicted that this exact thing was going to happen. When Biden got in and confirmed the troop withdraw deadline, everyone probably knew it would happen.

But how the fack did our leader and Biden fK this up so badly. How did they become that arrogant and out of touch on the situation on the ground. O'Toole saw it and wrote a letter to Justin, months ago warning of this exact thing. I'm betting CSIS and Military intelligence in Canada knew this was going to happen, and I'm betting that they briefed our version of a tailhook admiral in our defense minister.. The Veterans helping Afghans were screaming at Canada to get off of its ass months ago.

And the Canadian Government and Trudeau sat there with derpy looks on their faces and did nothing. Then completely under evaluated that and put the government in care taker mode when we saw what was coming.

Lets be honest, and seperate things out on your post. This isn't about the whole we occupied them and this is what's going to happen. Most people saw this was going to happen no matter how well the allied troops fought.

This is about a government that completely ignored the warning signs. Were incredibly stupid and the people in immigration with their hands on this file should be fired as should the minister for approving the paper process. They evacuated the embassy staff right off of the bat, and literally left the troops on the ground with no governmental aid, and that's why you see stories of troops ignoring Canadians or saying "We'll get someone to talk to you" and nobody came. That's on our Defense Minister who should have been screaming at foreign affairs and immigration, but oh yeah, he was out campaigning.

Our PM in a crisis should be at the head of the table. He should be directing and coordinating, and pushing. He ignored direct calls for his help from the opposition, he obviously doesn't read the paper or watch the news or get briefings because he would have seen the Veterans going to the papers after they were ignored by this government.

Sorry this entire thing pisses me off beyond reason, I went through basic and served with people that went over and fought in Afghanistan, and are now in an entire state of disbelief, and depression. People who wonder why they bothered now that they've seen a government that frankly abandoned the people they worked and fought with and for because of stupidity and politics. Frankly they don't have as many regrets about fighting over there as they have regrets in putting on the uniform for this country. That's a sad commentary, add to that veterans have a hard enough god damn time in their day to day lives without this adding on feelings of guilt and regret and fears of what's happening to those people over there.

So no, its not about a snarky, what do you expect when we occupied them. And by the way if you polled a lot of Afghanistan people they were happy for the respite from living in fear of a murder cult, they really were. Its a snarky from me about why the $$$$ do we have a government that's so out of touch, so arrogant and so lazy that it felt like they believed that the evacuation would take care of itself so lets call a stupid election and put the government in caretaker mode, and let resources sit on a runway for a week. Oh and let public servants put together a incredibly stupid and without foresight plan to get paper work done, and to and this is big, evacuate everyone first that could have sorted out the snarl of getting peoples paper work done and corrected and get them into the airport, instead of giving the next generation probably serious mental health issues over having to walk by people and say basically "I can't help you" or "I'll find someone that can help you stay right here" while knowing that it was likely that it was never going to happen.

Sorry, I'm venting on you, and I hate to use the word trigger. But your post kinda triggered me, but this one hits home for me. I'm embarrassed by what Canada did (not the soldiers on the ground, not the aircrews) and how they triggered it, I'm ashamed that this government pretty much abandoned people to a fate that is horrible to comprehend. I have nothing but contempt for the members of government that have their hands on this, because they are simply the worst part of this thing. This was their responsibility, from the PM to the Ministers to the senior civil servants, and oh yeah, they will lie, they will distort, they will deceive to protect themselves and their pensions and their salaries, and their power, and where the valor and justice in that?

[CaptainCrunch]

Heyyyyy you know what would be really cool, to give the taliban a kill list.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1430975844147732480

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Nyah

Not to mention without the $85 billion in weapons, supplies, aircraft, etc. left behind for the Taliban to help themselves to.

Between the incessant meddling of the Soviets and Americans there should be an unbelievable amount of materiel just lying around in Afghanistan.

And Biden, despite potentially being the oldest human on the face of the Earth, appears to have learned nothing in all his eons on this mortal coil.

[zamler]

Either Biden is the dumbest person alive or the multiple blunders are on purpose to justify going to war again.

[Izzle]

There was no good solution to this situation. Biden seemed to have bad info from the Pentagon about how much time American troops and civilians had to withdraw. The Pentagon and the military industrial blob have a vested interest in keeping the war going. The Republicans don't care about the Afghanis but wanted to use *something* to use as a cudgel against Biden. Biden likely calculated that he'd be spending serious political capital on this, but was probably surprised at the rate of depletion. In the end, most Americans do not have an appetite to prolong this war. It remains to be seen what kind of consequence Biden suffers in 2022.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Izzle

There was no good solution to this situation. Biden seemed to have bad info from the Pentagon about how much time American troops and civilians had to withdraw. The Pentagon and the military industrial blob have a vested interest in keeping the war going. The Republicans don't care about the Afghanis but wanted to use *something* to use as a cudgel against Biden. Biden likely calculated that he'd be spending serious political capital on this, but was probably surprised at the rate of depletion. In the end, most Americans do not have an appetite to prolong this war. It remains to be seen what kind of consequence Biden suffers in 2022.

my guess is Biden figures he needs the bad bit, the scenes from the airport, the last casualties over before Christmas and the US will forget about it in 6 months, he isnt wrong

[calgarywinning]

I think Biden was talking in context of future suicide bombers but his threat to hunt down and find the people responsible for the suicide bombing is just such bad context and one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

[Izzle]

Originally Posted by calgarywinning

I think Biden was talking in context of future suicide bombers but his threat to hunt down and find the people responsible for the suicide bombing is just such bad context and one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

He's probably going to rely on drone strikes. Don't think he'll commit to actual soldiers in Afghanistan for any extended period of time.

[CaptainCrunch]

They'll launch some drone strikes into abandoned ISIS-K bases. Kill a couple of low level guys from miles away and declare mission successful.


"WE GOT EM"

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

They'll launch some drone strikes into abandoned ISIS-K bases. Kill a couple of low level guys from miles away and declare mission successful.


"WE GOT EM"

The Taliban will be happy to provide the intel and theirs will be really good, ISIS in Afghanistan will be decimated pretty quickly if the US chooses to go along

[RoadGame]

Originally Posted by Izzle

He's probably going to rely on drone strikes. Don't think he'll commit to actual soldiers in Afghanistan for any extended period of time.

Wasn't that basically Bill Clinton's MO back in the day? Lob some Tomahawk missiles (missile count in proportion to the provocation) and call it a day?

So much of what's going on right now feels like a timewarp back to 20-25 years ago.

[CaptainCrunch]

Wonder if there are any "Baby Formula" factories that we can hit.

[GirlySports]

This is what Ramstein Airbase looks like right now.

Pretty incredible operation going on there right now.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/...tary-1.6078763

anada is contributing to a "massive humanitarian disaster" by failing to protect Afghan interpreters who risked their lives serving the Canadian Armed Forces, and are now being targeted by the Taliban, says an Afghanistan war veteran.
"If we do nothing, then Canada is going to have a huge, huge red mark on [its] international reputation, because there's going to be no end for the Taliban when it comes to hunting down and killing … and threatening and punishing all those that worked with coalition forces during the war," Dave Morrow, a retired Canadian infantry officer, told The Current's Matt Galloway.

There was a horror story today in the sun about a retired Forces member who got out an interpreter and his family on the last flight with no real help from the government.



The article showed how horrible and incompetent the government was. With the biggest boggle being evacuating the embassy staff so nobody could process and talk to refuges. That and the lost week where the government help planes and crews in Kuwait for a week.

[CaptainCrunch]

Heros


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...+Article+Links

A plane carrying Afghan translators, including one who worked for The Globe and Mail and another who served the Canadian military, as well as their families, has arrived in Kyiv following a daring operation by Ukrainian soldiers stationed at Kabul airport

The rescue of the translators was carried out early Friday morning in Kabul, a day after the last Canadian evacuation plane left Afghanistan, and hours after the deadly suicide attack at one of the gates to Hamid Karzai International Airport, which resulted in the deaths of at least 170 Afghans trying to flee the country, as well as 13 U.S. soldiers. Following the attack, which was claimed by the local affiliate of the so-called Islamic State, the U.S. said that only foreign nationals – and no more visa-clutching Afghans – would be allowed to enter the airport.

Despite that restriction, as well as the growing risks to coalition forces ahead of the scheduled withdrawal of the last U.S. forces on Aug. 31, Ukrainian troops went out into the city of Kabul on foot to escort two minibuses – carrying the Canada-bound translators and their families, 19 people in all – onto the airfield.
The soldiers had photographs of the licence plates of the minibuses, and they surrounded and escorted the vehicles for the last 600 metres into the airport.

“The convoy entered [the airport] because the Ukrainians came out. We just sent them the plate numbers of our vehicles … and they came to the local bazaar to find us. They said ‘Ukraine?’ we said ‘Yes!’ and they took us inside,” said Mohammed Sharif Sharaf, a 49-year-old father of five who spent 10 years as a fixer and translator assisting The Globe’s coverage of Canada’s role in the war for Afghanistan.

“Everybody was surprised. I tried for the last month to have someone get us. We asked the Americans, the Canadians, the Qataris, everybody – and no solution. They were scared to come out,” said Jawed Haqmal, a 33-year-old father of four who worked two years with Canadian special forces in Kandahar. “The Ukrainian soldiers were angels for us. They did an exceptional job. They have big hearts.”

[PeteMoss]

I presume this is a good news?

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pac...ve-afghanistan

[CaptainCrunch]

Sure, maybe, but there's no way to monitor it, and the Taliban isn't really all that trustworthy. "Hey brothers its ok, we're allowing people to leave, just step out into the kill zone so we can process the paperwork."