Climate change and human responsibility

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Wormius

My understanding was that it costs roughly half the price of the vehicle to get batteries replaced on a Tesla after warranty.

As someone else posted, engines blow too and cost about the same to replace.

I'm just 5 years the batteries have improved and gotten cheaper. This will continue.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yeah sorry, was on not completely lucid when I wrote that.

I meant to say that with all the debt that the average Canadian has, expecting them to buy brand new EV cars by raising energy prices to make gasoline cars punitive to use is ridiculous and really out of touch with the average Canadian's financial situation.

You hear stuff like this from the Liberal side all the time. Make it financially punitive to use fossil fuels so that people switch to electric. It's just not economically possible for most average people.

There will be cheap EVs soon, and then soon there will be used EVs. Even without carbon pricing EVs will be way cheaper and soon

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

There will be cheap EVs soon, and then soon there will be used EVs. Even without carbon pricing EVs will be way cheaper and soon

I've kinda been hearing this for a decade now, and I had always assumed it was going to happen, but we are still waiting. Tesla has tried really really hard to make a cheaper version, but keeps struggling with it. The cheapest model 3 is $46,389, but that's limited to 151km range, which is about 100km in the winter, so pretty useless to pay that much. The standard range plus gets you 423km range, and is $52.990. None of that sounds "cheap" when you can get a gas sedan for half the price.


I understand they are making improvements, but the process is slow. When do you see EV's being at par price wise for a similarly equipped vehicle? 5 years ago I would have said 2025, but I'm not convinced now.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by chedder

There is currently no such thing as a zero emission vehicle technically. According to this article it takes driving 30,000 miles to get to even with a tesla vs a rav 4 in co2 production.

How many people simply trade-in or end their lease at this point?

Point being, ev's aren't going to save the planet.

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/are-ele...e-environment/

How about not trading every 30,000? Also, whoever buys that car will drive it from 30,000 to 100,000 or more with much less CO2. It’s still better in the long run.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I've kinda been hearing this for a decade now, and I had always assumed it was going to happen, but we are still waiting. Tesla has tried really really hard to make a cheaper version, but keeps struggling with it. The cheapest model 3 is $46,389, but that's limited to 151km range, which is about 100km in the winter, so pretty useless to pay that much. The standard range plus gets you 423km range, and is $52.990. None of that sounds "cheap" when you can get a gas sedan for half the price.


I understand they are making improvements, but the process is slow. When do you see EV's being at par price wise for a similarly equipped vehicle? 5 years ago I would have said 2025, but I'm not convinced now.

After incentives you get relatively close in places where provinces offer incentives. 5k from feds, provinces offer anywhere from another 1000 to 8000 in Quebec.

But it will take Tesla getting more competition on the lower end. The leaf is within that same price range.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

After incentives you get relatively close in places where provinces offer incentives. 5k from feds, provinces offer anywhere from another 1000 to 8000 in Quebec.

But it will take Tesla getting more competition on the lower end. The leaf is within that same price range.

I don't like to consider government handouts when comparing prices of EV's. It's artificial.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I've kinda been hearing this for a decade now, and I had always assumed it was going to happen, but we are still waiting. Tesla has tried really really hard to make a cheaper version, but keeps struggling with it. The cheapest model 3 is $46,389, but that's limited to 151km range, which is about 100km in the winter, so pretty useless to pay that much. The standard range plus gets you 423km range, and is $52.990. None of that sounds "cheap" when you can get a gas sedan for half the price.


I understand they are making improvements, but the process is slow. When do you see EV's being at par price wise for a similarly equipped vehicle? 5 years ago I would have said 2025, but I'm not convinced now.

Firstly, I guess we'd need to define things. I've never seen a prediction of anything less than 2025, but that seems increasingly likely for manufacturing costs. That doesn't mean sticker price though because that all depends on what margins the auto maker chargers. There's also cost of ownership, and whether you include that or not.

And the progress really isn't that slow. In 2016 (5 years ago) a Nissan Leaf had only a 30kWh with a 170km range and lost a lot of money for every car they sell. They only made them in order to not pay massive fines in Europe due to total fleet emissions policies so they didn't care how much they lost. Now, just 5 years later, the battery pack is twice the size and they likely don't lose money anymore. Tesla only sold model S in 2016 and the base price was $87,000. These cars still had a negative margin. Now the model 3 can be purchased with pretty similar specifications for $53,000 and they make really good margins. I don't think it's fair to say there's been no change. The executives of Ford, Volkswagen, and GM all said that by 2025 it'll cost them the same amount to make EVs. The issue is simply manufacturing scale and that's coming, and Tesla is already doing it.


Then there's consumer behaviour. Right now, there's no real used car market for EVs because there aren't enough out there. A used model 3 actually costs more than new right now which is insane. But the used market is where most people get their vehicles and EVs aren't there yet. I also think that consumer patterns will change once people who don't need 500km range realize they don't and opt for vehicles that are way cheaper.

As for, when can I get two similar cars (one ev one ice) at the same price? I still say 2025

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[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by chedder

There is currently no such thing as a zero emission vehicle technically. According to this article it takes driving 30,000 miles to get to even with a tesla vs a rav 4 in co2 production.

How many people simply trade-in or end their lease at this point?

Point being, ev's aren't going to save the planet.

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/are-ele...e-environment/

This article is not great, but even it shows that EVs are better. Regardless of when the ownership changes, the car still gets driven and displaced an ice vehicle so I'm not sure how lease length is at all relevant. The car doesn't disappear.

Secondly, all the data they used to come to this conclusion is current data. The grid is getting cleaner fast, so current CO2 emissions from electricity shouldn't be used in a longitudinal study. Similarly for manufacturing, battery technology, etc. All of those are improving their carbon footprint so the numbers are going to be skewed. However, there's no doubt that the most benefit of switching to EVs will be in the future when more low carbon technologies are in use.

There's much more thorough studies on this:

https://theicct.org/publications/glo...r-cars-jul2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statist...nd-ice-vehicle (as usual with iea there's some really bad future predictive assumptions, but otherwise ok)


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[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The cheapest model 3 is $46,389, but that's limited to 151km range,

What specific model is this? Lowest range Model 3 I can find on Tesla Canada is 423km.

I understand they are making improvements, but the process is slow. When do you see EV's being at par price wise for a similarly equipped vehicle? 5 years ago I would have said 2025, but I'm not convinced now.

I don't think the process is slow at all the price of batteries has dropped drastically in 10 years. Right now is a bad time to judge EV prices especially from Tesla they keep going up in price due to demand.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by zamler

What specific model is this? Lowest range Model 3 I can find on Tesla Canada is 423km.



I don't think the process is slow at all the price of batteries has dropped drastically in 10 years. Right now is a bad time to judge EV prices especially from Tesla they keep going up in price due to demand.

If you click the "limit to 151km est" box the price goes down. The size of battery doesn't change, they just limit access to the battery. This is done so the model 3 has a base price to keep them eligible for federal rebates.

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[zamler]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

If you click the "limit to 151km est" box the price goes down. The size of battery doesn't change, they just limit access to the battery. This is done so the model 3 has a base price to keep them eligible for federal rebates.

Interesting, didn't know that.

[Flames0910]

I understand they are making improvements, but the process is slow. When do you see EV's being at par price wise for a similarly equipped vehicle? 5 years ago I would have said 2025, but I'm not convinced now.

IDK it's hard to see change while it's happening, but for some perspective...

I started my career 10 years ago. At the time I was working on the Nissan account marketing the LEAF and there were exactly two in Calgary -- one that was privately owned and one owned by Enmax. The Volt was their primary competitor and I only ever saw one of those in Calgary.

Three electric cars in a city of a million.

While travelling I would be stunned by the number in LA (they were everywhere thanks to HOV lane access perks), and even in Vancouver I would count dozens upon dozens of EVs. And on a trip to Palo Alto it seemed as though every second car was electric. I know progress seems slow, but even in Calgary it has now gotten to the point where I no longer turn my head at a Tesla. Now imagine what LA and Vancouver must look like. The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed.

When looking at innovation curves, progress can seem frustratingly slow, until all of a sudden it's not.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Flames0910

The Volt was their primary competitor and I only ever saw one of those in Calgary.

Three electric cars in a city of a million.

I thought at the time it came out the Volt was a better buy vs. something like a Prius. There is one a few blocks from me I think it's the only one I've ever seen in Calgary.

Why didn't GM continue the Volt but make the next generation fully electric. Instead they gave us the hideous Volt.

[Flames0910]

Re: Volt vs Prius
First mover advantage made a big difference there. Also the market was already trending towards hatchbacks for their greater utility. Having to buy a charging setup for not quite fully electric Volt and the mediocre owner reviews also played a pretty big role. And there was a lot of (justified, it turns out) worry that it would be another "GM Killed The Electric Car" type of vehicle.

Volt was an interesting idea but the wrong timing and poorly executed. The new RAV4 Prime is essentially a better version of the Volt without the GM baggage and it seems to be doing quite well.

[FlamesAddiction]

What do you do in cities where almost all the residential parking is street parking? Just have extension chords running all over the place?

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I don't like to consider government handouts when comparing prices of EV's. It's artificial.

Oh no, it's a very real $5000.

You see, what we have is this model of collective decision making, where we agree that it would be good if we pick winners and losers to ensure that up and coming industries with roughly 1/3 of of the externalized societal cost have the opportunity to thrive against entrenched legacy industries that have offloaded a bunch of hidden costs on society, so that eventually the lower impact industry can grow and compete head to head. (we call it government, and sometimes it is there job to pick winners and losers).

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

What do you do in cities where almost all the residential parking is street parking? Just have extension chords running all over the place?

There are a few companies offering solutions ranging from wires under the sidewalk to neighbourhood charging stations.

Toronto added charging stations to a bunch of utility poles with a pilot program: https://electricautonomy.ca/2020/11/...e-ev-charging/

The one that's really interesting is a company in the UK with a pop-up charger built into the curb that is tucked away when not in use -- pretty cool (though probably slightly more expensive).
https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ss-in-uk-trial

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by #-3

Oh no, it's a very real $5000.

You see, what we have is this model of collective decision making, where we agree that it would be good if we pick winners and losers to ensure that up and coming industries with roughly 1/3 of of the externalized societal cost have the opportunity to thrive against entrenched legacy industries that have offloaded a bunch of hidden costs on society, so that eventually the lower impact industry can grow and compete head to head. (we call it government, and sometimes it is there job to pick winners and losers).

That's all fine, I just don't feel that if you are directly comprising the cost of 2 things, you should interlude taxpayer funded rebates to make the numbers match. If you want to make the statement "EV's have reached cost parity with ICE vehicles"I feel like that should be free of rebates.

I also don't really agree with rebates as structured. The only people who can afford an EV are the well off, so people who can't afford them have their tax dollars handed to people wealthier than them. I'd like to see rebates go away for anything over $30k.

If the goal is to reduce emissions as much as possible while adopting a limited amount of EV's, it makes far more sense to target the largest users, not the ones who drive a short distance every day. But that would mean giving money to businesses who put on lots of miles, and transit.

[photon]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

What do you do in cities where almost all the residential parking is street parking? Just have extension chords running all over the place?

You could, though I wonder if it'd be a liability issue with people tripping over cables. Maybe use one of these and hope it doesn't get stolen more than a few times a year lol:



And you'd have to get an external cable installed, I'm not sure if the inside ones are rated for all weather.

Eventually maybe such neighborhoods would all be built with charging stations like this? Harder to put in after the fact but when it's being built? Doesn't help all the existing places.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If the goal is to reduce emissions as much as possible while adopting a limited amount of EV's, it makes far more sense to target the largest users, not the ones who drive a short distance every day. But that would mean giving money to businesses who put on lots of miles, and transit.

For sure. Electric trucks, vans and semis are probably less exciting than consumer models but could make a huge difference in reducing vehicle emissions. And once the business case is proven, you could see whole fleets turning over not for the eco-cred but for the dollar savings. Government could play a role in financing some of these deals or switching municipal fleets though I think the main problem right now isn't really access to capital but supply constraints until a few models establish dominance in the market.

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/8-e...ies-watch-2020
https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-...g-semi-trucks/