Friedman: Flames have begun extension talks with Gaudreau & Eichel speculation

[stemit14]

If Gaudreau has another solid year (at least a point-per-game), what would he likely get in free agency? Is $9.5 million per year out of the question? I don’t think it is. I imagine gaudreau’s camp is asking for that.

Unless Treliving is really low-balling him, he’s probably offering something like $8 million per year. I think if this deal gets done, it’s likely around the $9 million per year mark.

The reality is that Johnny is the most skilled player on the team. I hope the flames do re-sign him before training camp. Would be great to have a player of his talent locked in long-term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

But he's not nearly as good after the regular season. Pretty human in fact.

Look how neutered he was vs Winnipeg. How many periods of OT and he couldn't break through?

I think part of what plays into it is that teams give him more respect and space in the regular season when there is less at stake, when that changes his impact is diminished. But I think there is also a mental block on his end when the games matter.

Barkov has never won a playoff round so it's an odd argument

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by stemit14

If Gaudreau has another solid year (at least a point-per-game), what would he likely get in free agency? Is $9.5 million per year out of the question? I don’t think it is. I imagine gaudreau’s camp is asking for that.

Unless Treliving is really low-balling him, he’s probably offering something like $8 million per year. I think if this deal gets done, it’s likely around the $9 million per year mark.

The reality is that Johnny is the most skilled player on the team. I hope the flames do re-sign him before training camp. Would be great to have a player of his talent locked in long-term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think it will end up around the 8.5M mark. Hoping anyhow but if it takes 9 it takes 9, just get it done.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Barkov has never won a playoff round so it's an odd argument

Yeah I'm not making a Barkov comparison. That was someone else.

I'd be happy to make a Nate MacKinnon comparison though.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by stemit14

If Gaudreau had another solid year (at least a point-per-game), what would he likely get in free agency? Is $9.5 million per year out of the question? I don’t think it is. I imagine gaudreau’s camp is asking for that.

Unless Treliving is really low-balling him, he’s probably offering something like $8 million per year. I think if this deal gets done, it’s likely around the $9 million per year mark.

The reality is that Johnny is the most skilled player on the team. I hope the flames do re-sign him before training camp. Would be great to have a player of his talent locked in long-term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

When you get to Johnny's age and negiotating a deal which probably is his last big deal of his career it's less about the AAV and more about total $$.

I agree that Johnny might want around $9 probably $8.5 mil per year but he isn't getting that for 8 years. Maybe 5. $9 mil for 5 years is $45 million and takes him to 34 years old. If I'm Johnny I ask what would my career earnings be from 34 and older? $10 mil? Do I want a contract that takes away the risk I don't get that $10? Is a contract that expires when I'm 36 or 37 worth $50 mil to $55mil or even $60mil better to take now and sign the 8 year deal? Landeskog contract is worth $56. IMO Johnny probably wants around that and less is a bit of a hometown discount

Treliving might be waiting to decide what type of contract he is willing to accept based on what move he makes next. Signing Johnny for 8 years for me makes more sense if we land Eichel. But if we don't and Tkachuk is really looking to get out of Calgary maybe signing Johnny for less years with a higher AAV makes more sense for Treliving?

My guess is it's probably one of:

6 years at $8.75 mil

or

8 years at $7 mil

[ComixZone]

^ the rumour was St. Louis had a 7 year deal worth $8M+ for Landeskog if he had hit free agency.

Gaudreau is comparable, and he’s also been a better offensive player over his career, and offensive production tends to get you paid.

If Johnny were to go to free agency, I believe he’d be looking at 7 years at north of $8M without much difficulty. If we do manage to sign Johnny, I fully expect it to be for 8 years at well north of $8M if not all the way up at $9M per.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

^ the rumour was St. Louis had a 7 year deal worth $8M+ for Landeskog if he had hit free agency.

Gaudreau is comparable, and he’s also been a better offensive player over his career, and offensive production tends to get you paid.

If Johnny were to go to free agency, I believe he’d be looking at 7 years at north of $8M without much difficulty. If we do manage to sign Johnny, I fully expect it to be for 8 years at well north of $8M and nearing in at $9M if not $9M.

Age also matters too. Landeskog is 28 years old signing this year and signing a contract that expires when he is 35 on a 7 year deal. Johnny is a free agent next year and a contract expiring when he is 36 on a 7 year deal. Teams will factor that year in

Also, playoff success gets you paid and Landeskog is nearly a PPG in the playoffs. Johnny has very little playoff success so 7 years around $8 mil is about what he could get. If he wants $9 mil no chance he is getting that for 7 years. 5 years maybe but if I'm Johnny I would rather take $8 mil for 7 years and take the guaranteed money over banking on making $10 mil past the age of 34.

Flames can offer 8 years and Johnny has to consider that. I just don't see Johnny wanting to risk it.

Landeskog also is a big physical player who is a captain so I think that probaby got him a few extra dollars on his contract for that as well.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Age also matters too. Landeskog is 28 years old signing this year and signing a contract that expires when he is 35 on a 7 year deal. Johnny is a free agent next year and a contract expiring when he is 36 on a 7 year deal. Teams will factor that year in.

Because Johnny’s birthday is in the summer a 7 year deal will expire when he is 35 and he turns 36 during the offseason

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

When you get to Johnny's age and negiotating a deal which probably is his last big deal of his career it's less about the AAV and more about total $$.

I agree that Johnny might want around $9 probably $8.5 mil per year but he isn't getting that for 8 years. Maybe 5. $9 mil for 5 years is $45 million and takes him to 34 years old. If I'm Johnny I ask what would my career earnings be from 34 and older? $10 mil? Do I want a contract that takes away the risk I don't get that $10? Is a contract that expires when I'm 36 or 37 worth $50 mil to $55mil or even $60mil better to take now and sign the 8 year deal? Landeskog contract is worth $56. IMO Johnny probably wants around that and less is a bit of a hometown discount

Treliving might be waiting to decide what type of contract he is willing to accept based on what move he makes next. Signing Johnny for 8 years for me makes more sense if we land Eichel. But if we don't and Tkachuk is really looking to get out of Calgary maybe signing Johnny for less years with a higher AAV makes more sense for Treliving?

My guess is it's probably one of:

6 years at $8.75 mil

or

8 years at $7 mil

I don’t see Johnny accepting any deal that’s less than 7 years. I personally think Gaudreau is worth more than a lot of players that have been signed recently to $8 million+ per year. Gaudreau drives the offensive production of any line he’s on. Players that do that in the league are rare. Guys like Panarin and Kane are his comparable in wingers. He might not be at their level because they are better goal scorers but his play-making ability is on par or even better in some ways than theirs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

Have we forgotten the Kipperstofians?

Kiprusoffarian's.. come on.

[Toonage]

I think the same deal Landeskog got is fair for Johnny. Wouldn't surprise me if thats what it ends up being.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I don’t see Johnny accepting any deal that’s less than 7 years. I personally think Gaudreau is worth more than a lot of players that have been signed recently to $8 million+ per year. Gaudreau drives the offensive production of any line he’s on. Players that do that in the league are rare. Guys like Panarin and Kane are his comparable in wingers. He might not be at their level because they are better goal scorers but his play-making ability is on par or even better in some ways than theirs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes definitely from Johnny’s view

From the other view, the bus is not going very well with him driving it

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Toonage

I think the same deal Landeskog got is fair for Johnny. Wouldn't surprise me if thats what it ends up being.

I personally think Johnny is worth 1m more than Landeskog per year. I would expect Johnny to get more than 8.5m on the open market, so here's to hoping we can get a lower $ if we offer the extra year.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Yes definitely from Johnny’s view

From the other view, the bus is not going very well with him driving it

Okay, but is it his fault that the bus could use another wheel?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

When you get to Johnny's age and negiotating a deal which probably is his last big deal of his career it's less about the AAV and more about total $$.

I agree that Johnny might want around $9 probably $8.5 mil per year but he isn't getting that for 8 years. Maybe 5. $9 mil for 5 years is $45 million and takes him to 34 years old. If I'm Johnny I ask what would my career earnings be from 34 and older? $10 mil? Do I want a contract that takes away the risk I don't get that $10? Is a contract that expires when I'm 36 or 37 worth $50 mil to $55mil or even $60mil better to take now and sign the 8 year deal? Landeskog contract is worth $56. IMO Johnny probably wants around that and less is a bit of a hometown discount

Treliving might be waiting to decide what type of contract he is willing to accept based on what move he makes next. Signing Johnny for 8 years for me makes more sense if we land Eichel. But if we don't and Tkachuk is really looking to get out of Calgary maybe signing Johnny for less years with a higher AAV makes more sense for Treliving?

My guess is it's probably one of:

6 years at $8.75 mil

or

8 years at $7 mil

But that's not how it generally works out.

If Johnny had a PPG year, he's want max term and max AAV, and he'll get it.

What he might get when he turns 34 is not particularly relevant. He'll want to be paid those max dollars , especially when he knows he likely won't get it at that time. They only way to ensure he'll get that, is to get it now. Most UFA contracts will stink in the latter stages, that's just the way they go.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Everyone likes him... McDavid goes #1 100% though

No. I don't think he would be the 100% consensus #1. You'll have a very small amount of GMs who would consider MacKinnon.

Heck. With somebody like Dim Jim being a GM you may have a 3rd unthought of option!

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

I personally think Johnny is worth 1m more than Landeskog per year. I would expect Johnny to get more than 8.5m on the open market, so here's to hoping we can get a lower $ if we offer the extra year.

Possibly. However, I think the value in the extra year is what gets him to sign with Calgary rather than test free agency. I don’t think the value in the extra year will be used to lower the AAV very much.

But if the AAV comes in at $8.5 million per year, I think the flames will have gotten him at less than he would get in free agency.

Another sticking point will be the NTC/NMC. Gaudreau has one now and he will want to keep having one in his new contract. I think those have a lot of value to players when they sign long term. Agents probably tell their clients to always look for max term and money at this point in their career and, as long as they have some form of NTC/NMC, they have the power to get themselves moved to a better situation if things go bad.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Okay, but is it his fault that the bus could use another wheel?

No, I am just putting up counter argument from the other side

If everything is fine and dandy, and everyone agreed, he would have been signed by now

For full disclosure, I love Johnny and don’t want him to leave

[shutout]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I don’t see Johnny accepting any deal that’s less than 7 years. I personally think Gaudreau is worth more than a lot of players that have been signed recently to $8 million+ per year. Gaudreau drives the offensive production of any line he’s on. Players that do that in the league are rare. Guys like Panarin and Kane are his comparable in wingers. He might not be at their level because they are better goal scorers but his play-making ability is on par or even better in some ways than theirs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I personally don't see Gaudreau signing more than a five year deal.
I believe that he would like to continue playing in Calgary and for the right contract he is going to stay.
I also believe that at some point in the last part of his career he is going to want to go and play for the Flyers. Very similar to Krejic.
I think that a five year deal means at 35 he might still have a year or two left that he can join his childhood dream team and sign a reasonable contract that helps the team.

The advantage to a seven or eight year deal is that it allows for a lower AAV and spreads the money out. With a five year deal, or even a four year deal, Gaudreau is going to want his market money and the Flames are going to have to figure out how to fit that $8-8.5M into the team budget.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by shutout

I personally don't see Gaudreau signing more than a five year deal.
I believe that he would like to continue playing in Calgary and for the right contract he is going to stay.
I also believe that at some point in the last part of his career he is going to want to go and play for the Flyers. Very similar to Krejic.
I think that a five year deal means at 35 he might still have a year or two left that he can join his childhood dream team and sign a reasonable contract that helps the team.

The advantage to a seven or eight year deal is that it allows for a lower AAV and spreads the money out. With a five year deal, or even a four year deal, Gaudreau is going to want his market money and the Flames are going to have to figure out how to fit that $8-8.5M into the team budget.

I really don't mind a 5 year deal for a 28 year old. I expect he can play a lot longer, but who knows for sure, and what he will be like then. He relies on quickness and if that goes, it's pretty tough for him. I don't think he's known as a fitness freak.