[Signing] Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to extension beginning in 2022 (8 yrs, $9.25 mil AAV)

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Label however you want.

His stats are in the 155-175th range for defenseman. There are 186 dressed positions on 31 hockey teams.

He's at the 17th percentile for some metrics and the 6th percentile in xGA60, which is a key one in my mind.

Why would I need to posture with actual stats on my side?

I guess we just disagree on the importance of those particular stats then.

I see XGA/60 as mostly noise as evidenced by the Tanev example.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I don't think anyone is happy about paying Nurse over $9 million per year.

Perhaps you think the team would be better if the Oilers had kept Bear and traded Nurse?

Probably NHL GMs and coaches would think differently. They keep paying and playing guys like Morrissey, Carlson, and Rielly that have similar XgA/60 as Nurse.

We can go back and forth all day, but if you really believe Nurse's defensive ability is 3rd pairing/7th defenceman calibre and you're not just posturing, we really aren't going to make any headway.

I, for one, am happy they are paying Nurse over $9 million per year.

I get your point that offense gets paid (ala Morrisey or Carlson), but even then, the number should be somewhere between $6.75 and $8.5 and you still would need to shield your eyes in the D zone.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I don't think anyone is happy about paying Nurse over $9 million per year.

Perhaps you think the team would be better if the Oilers had kept Bear and traded Nurse?

Probably NHL GMs and coaches would think differently. They keep paying and playing guys like Morrissey, Carlson, and Rielly that have similar XgA/60 as Nurse.

We can go back and forth all day, but if you really believe Nurse's defensive ability is 3rd pairing/7th defenceman calibre and you're not just posturing, we really aren't going to make any headway.

They had a choice, 1 they had another year with him to see if his offensive numbers would normalize, and his defensive game rise to the level of passable. Thus ipso facto they'd be able to sign him to an actual contract that makes sense.


Absolutley if they felt his value was that high, and if there's a chance man, a chance that they felt that he might regress or not improve defensively next year trade his flawed butt for a kings ransom while his value is high. Or the third option. You panic sign him to a huge over payment over a huge number of years and give him a supreme no movement ability. Notice I didn't say negotiate a deal, I said give him a deal. There's a distinct and laughable difference.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I guess we just disagree on the importance of those particular stats then.

I see XGA/60 as mostly noise as evidenced by the Tanev example.

Here's the problem with using Tanev as a counter example.
You're writing off the stat because a Tanev's numbers spiked this year.
Well he had a major change in circumstances, so yeah, there was probably some external factors that affected that stat. We'll see if it's a permanent change.
If a player ends up in a better system, or other things change to affect how he plays, it's not out of the real of possibility that his stats will change.

Nurse on the other hand has been consistently terrible according to that stat.
Sure there have been changes in who he plays with, and how many minutes he plays, but those changes are not on the same level as changing teams/systems.
There hasn't been a fundamental shift in his circumstances or game.

Is it a great stat for predicting how a player will perform after a major change? Probably not.

But if it's pretty stable for a player who has had a pretty stable couple of years, can we infer that it probably carries some weight?
Well yeah, I would say so.

Just about all of the stats say that Nurse has consistently been bad at defense.
The eye test says that Nurse has consistently been bad at defense.

So what exactly has changed that makes you think Nurse will suddenly get good at something that he has consistently been bad at?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

How about just paying Nurse what he’s worth instead of such a huge overpay.

I thought Nurse at $5.6M was a huge overpay.

$9.25M? You'd have to be an idiot.

Congratulations to Darnell Nurse! Take 'em for everything you can get!

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I guess we just disagree on the importance of those particular stats then.

I see XGA/60 as mostly noise as evidenced by the Tanev example.

I would too if I’m trying to rationalize that salary. But hey, #HereComeTheOilers

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I guess we just disagree on the importance of those particular stats then.

I see XGA/60 as mostly noise as evidenced by the Tanev example.

OK ignore that one.

What about being 7th-10th percentile in giving up shots, shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances.

That's the melting pot for the xGA figure.

You may not agree with the recipe, but you kind of have to agree the ingredients are icky.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I don't think anyone is happy about paying Nurse over $9 million per year....

*AHEM*

I am thrilled. I could not be happier about this. I'm ecstatic! This is easily the most astonishing and amusing part of the entire NHL offseason.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Locke

I thought Nurse at $5.6M was a huge overpay.

$9.25M? You'd have to be an idiot.

Congratulations to Darnell Nurse! Take 'em for everything you can get!

I can just imagine that call between Nurse and his agent.

Agent - "I walked into Holland's office and I kid you not, he put down his lego and blurted 9.25 by 8 years"

Nurse - "Really"

Agent - "Then I said I want as much no trade possibility as possible so when its time to demand a trade we're in the drivers seat"

Nurse - "So we buckled on that for the cash right"

Agent - "Nope, he said derp which I think means yes and filled out the contract in crayon"

Nurse - "And?"

Agent - "Enjoy your highly paid 8 year vacation"

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

OK ignore that one.

What about being 7th-10th percentile in giving up shots, shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances.

That's the melting pot for the xGA figure.

You may not agree with the recipe, but you kind of have to agree the ingredients are icky.

Well I guess this season will be an interesting experiment.

Last season the Oilers were 12th in goals against.

This was with Nurse and Barrie in the top pairing role.

They added Keith who is essentially dead last in XGA/60 over the last 3 years. They also added Ceci who is like bottom quartile I think. Nowhere near good by this metric.

So with the expectation that Smith regresses this season and the Oilers have the worst top four group in the NHL defensively according to XGA/60 where do you think the Oilers finish the season in terms of goals against?

Last? Bottom five?

I personally think it will be closer to middle of the pack than bottom five.

[CaptainCrunch]

Smith had a a high year his highest in a decade.



He bailed out that team like crazy, he thwarted a lot of that guy score moments.



Can a 40 year old do it over a long season instead of a short season? I have my doubts.



I mean really your defensive stalwart is Russell. That alone should make your hair turn white.

[crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well I guess this season will be an interesting experiment.

Last season the Oilers were 12th in goals against.

This was with Nurse and Barrie in the top pairing role.

They added Keith who is essentially dead last in XGA/60 over the last 3 years. They also added Ceci who is like bottom quartile I think. Nowhere near good by this metric.

So with the expectation that Smith regresses this season and the Oilers have the worst top four group in the NHL defensively according to XGA/60 where do you think the Oilers finish the season in terms of goals against?

Last? Bottom five?

I personally think it will be closer to middle of the pack than bottom five.

I think that "terrifying" would fit better than "interesting" from an Oilers perspective.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well I guess this season will be an interesting experiment.

Last season the Oilers were 12th in goals against.

This was with Nurse and Barrie in the top pairing role.

They added Keith who is essentially dead last in XGA/60 over the last 3 years. They also added Ceci who is like bottom quartile I think. Nowhere near good by this metric.

So with the expectation that Smith regresses this season and the Oilers have the worst top four group in the NHL defensively according to XGA/60 where do you think the Oilers finish the season in terms of goals against?

Last? Bottom five?

I personally think it will be closer to middle of the pack than bottom five.

Did you negotiate Nurse’s contract? They played 6 teams.

SIX!

Do you seriously hold any credibility in them being 12th when they played 6 teams and McDavid roasted the Senators 8 times? Take 2 or 3 of their blowout games against the Sens and where are they at?

You think XGA/60 is noise but somehow GA vs 6 teams means anything when comparing things league wide? What?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well I guess this season will be an interesting experiment.

Last season the Oilers were 12th in goals against.

This was with Nurse and Barrie in the top pairing role.

They added Keith who is essentially dead last in XGA/60 over the last 3 years. They also added Ceci who is like bottom quartile I think. Nowhere near good by this metric.

So with the expectation that Smith regresses this season and the Oilers have the worst top four group in the NHL defensively according to XGA/60 where do you think the Oilers finish the season in terms of goals against?

Last? Bottom five?

I personally think it will be closer to middle of the pack than bottom five.

I guess some hope could be placed on adding a couple of forwards that know what to do in their own zone, and won't blow the blue line looking for a stretch pass every shift.

That will help a bit.

But yeah it looks like a firewagon season in Edmonton. Can the offence out score the defense and the expected goalie decline?

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Can the offence out score the defense and the expected goalie decline?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I don't think anyone is happy about paying Nurse over $9 million per year.

Correct, I am not happy.

I think giddy with excitement, squeezing my knees in glee, is a better explanation.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by Boreal

Did you negotiate Nurse’s contract? They played 6 teams.

SIX!

Do you seriously hold any credibility in them being 12th when they played 6 teams and McDavid roasted the Senators 8 times? Take 2 or 3 of their blowout games against the Sens and where are they at?

You think XGA/60 is noise but somehow GA vs 6 teams means anything when comparing things league wide? What?

They played the Sens 7 times before the Sens figured out how to tie their skate laces. I love that those “stat night” games where guys like Nurse were scoring on muffins from anywhere are contributing to such an insane contract.

[topfiverecords]

I’m still throwing my head back in laughter every time is see this thread title.

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

Originally Posted by Boreal

Did you negotiate Nurse’s contract? They played 6 teams.

SIX!

Do you seriously hold any credibility in them being 12th when they played 6 teams and McDavid roasted the Senators 8 times? Take 2 or 3 of their blowout games against the Sens and where are they at?

You think XGA/60 is noise but somehow GA vs 6 teams means anything when comparing things league wide? What?

If this is the case, and the Oilers only won last year, simply because they were in a weak division, do we then not have to concede the Flames are even worse off than they looked... and by a substantial margin? The team you're calling a dumpster fire, the Oilers, finished 17 points ahead of the Flames last year in that "terrible division". They also had lower GAA. The Oilers didn't lose their captain in the offseason either but instead now have a good mix of experience and youth.

In regards to Mike Smith, I remember ALL year people on here were saying, it's only a matter of time until old Grampa Smith shows his true colors. Well he didn't slow down. Yet instead of giving him credit for a good season, they say it doesn't count because it was a shortened season and it is only a matter of time next year before he dramatically slows down. Here's a simple biology fact, some athletes can play longer effectively than others. Tom Brady is an example of that, in hockey Chris Chelios, in goaltending, Hasek... there are many more. Maybe Smith slows down, it wouldn't shock me, but if he does, it wasn't a total given, like I keep hearing in here.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

If this is the case, and the Oilers only won last year, simply because they were in a weak division, do we then not have to concede the Flames are even worse off than they looked... and by a substantial margin? The team you're calling a dumpster fire, the Oilers, finished 17 points ahead of the Flames last year in that "terrible division". They also had lower GAA. The Oilers didn't lose their captain in the offseason either but instead now have a good mix of experience and youth.

In regards to Mike Smith, I remember ALL year people on here were saying, it's only a matter of time until old Grampa Smith shows his true colors. Well he didn't slow down. Yet instead of giving him credit for a good season, they say it doesn't count because it was a shortened season and it is only a matter of time next year before he dramatically slows down. Here's a simple biology fact, some athletes can play longer effectively than others. Tom Brady is an example of that, in hockey Chris Chelios, in goaltending, Hasek... there are many more. Maybe Smith slows down, it wouldn't shock me, but if he does, it wasn't a total given, like I keep hearing in here.

Now Mike Smith is Tom Brady……….. this thread is the gift that keeps on giving