[Signing] Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to extension beginning in 2022 (8 yrs, $9.25 mil AAV)

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This seems like the issue is defining a "better player". The model developer is saying, look, we have thousands and thousands of shots of data. X% of shots in this area near the slot result in goals, Y% in shots over here on the half wall result in goals, and we can see, compared to a replacement level defenseman, where players playing against Darnell Nurse take their shots from, and how many they get. We can adjust that rate by looking at where they get those shots when he's playing with teammate A, B, C, D by looking at their own individual results when playing with or without Nurse on the ice. We can do the same for opposing players, normalizing by how good they are at getting high danger shots, and the volume of them, against other competition league wide. We can then factor in things other data we have access to, such as turnovers, possession exits, completed passes out of the zone, to factor in how those affect the frequency and dangerousness of chances given up by his team when Darnell Nurse is on the ice, again adjusted according to how good his teammates are at those things and how good the competition he plays against is at securing turnovers and preventing controlled zone exits. And taken together, all of those things tell you a lot about whether Darnell Nurse is good at playing defense or not.

I gather that what you are saying is that those things can't actually tell us much that's useful about whether a player is good at defense. If so, I guess that's where we'll have to disagree. I think those things (particularly shot volume, shot location and the ability to get the puck out of the zone in transition) are the most important skills and outcomes when it comes to keeping the puck out of your team's net. I base that view on a large amount of analysis that has been done over many years by a wide variety of analysts.

I think that number of variables and the number you can't measure (coach system, goalie preferences, etc) is what leads to the concern with models.

I think these models are all good and a step up from what we've had before but their is still a ton of learn and some things that will be impossible in hockey just because its extremely fast and fluid compared to other sports.

Back in the early days of baseball metrics - two of the big conclusions they had was don't pay for relievers and defense doesn't matter much. Now you've got teams like the Rays who are extremely focused on defense and relief pitchers because its the cheapest way to be competitive. Its always a moving target with these models.

[Enoch Root]

I know what WAR is, I was trying to keep the examples simple in order to keep the everything short and to the point. Anyway, I have said enough and will let it go.

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

[MegaErtz]

The owners can't help themselves. I can't wait until they wake up and band together to get an NBA type CBA, with four years the maximum length of 99% of contracts and a fifth year available for only the very best players.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

You’re not Homer Simpson you’re what is called or referred to as a ‘blind with love’ fan.

[jg13]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

A possible top 5 team with your defence and goalie situation looking like this?

Nurse-Barrie
Ceci-Keith
Russell-Bouchard

Smith
Koskinen

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers.

Yes. Every one of us is most definitely blinded by hatred for the Oilers. They are by a wide margin the most despicable, most historically awful team in hockey history—perhaps in all of sports.

Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years.

Whoopee.

Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

Well, duh.

Beyond the universal and unrelenting haters and ridicule of the Oilers that you will discover permeating every pore and bit on this site, you will also come to see that a sizeable number of the posters here know a good deal about hockey. In this instance the criticism has been deafening and perpetual for the intractable fact that this contract just signed by Darnell Nurse is a terrible deal. Objectively speaking, this contract is already a bad one, and has the potential to be one of the most outrageously awful deals in the entire NHL after only a couple of years. It is horrendously bad, and Ken Holland deserves all the criticism he gets for it. Flames fans are ecstatic about it.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

The Oilers are garbage. Yes they have significantly bolstered their forward depth, but the blue line is easily worse and the team's hopes are pinned on a 40-year-old goaltender performing a miracle by repeating his career-best season. It's not happening, and Edmonton will be wallowing outside the playoff bubble where they usually are.

Welcome to Calgary Puck!

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes. Every one of us is most definitely blinded by hatred for the Oilers. They are by a wide margin the most despicable, most historically awful team in hockey history—perhaps in all of sports.

Welcome to Calgary Puck!

I expected nothing less. You guys are consistent if nothing else.

Thanks for the Welcome!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I expected nothing less. You guys are consistent if nothing else.

Not just consistent. Many of us are happy and handsome.

[Robo]

I still can't believe this deal

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

You like your team - cool.

How do you feel about $9.25M AAV for Nurse? (seeing how this is a thread about Nurse's contract and all)

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

Maybe YOU haven't said it but we hear it every offseason by some Oilerboi. The offseason is Oiler heaven. Dream big and enjoy this time while the games aren't being played.

Top 5 team lol.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

Haaaaave you seen their goaltending?

One guy couldnt catch a Beach Ball and the other one uses his goalie stick as a makeshift cane.

This aint your granpappy's truncated COVID season where you only play the same half-dozen teams over and over again.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

They have literally the worst defense in the league.

32nd out of 32 teams.

Buffalo's and Arizona's blue lines are better defensively.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

They have literally the worst defense in the league.

32nd out of 32 teams.

Buffalo's and Arizona's blue lines are better defensively.

Seattle cant barely even ice a team yet and its still better.

And they havent had 4 first overall draft picks.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Seattle's defense, in terms of their defensive prowess, is WAY better. Miles better. We're talking about Giordano, Oleksiak, Dunn, Carson Soucy and Adam Larsson, all of whom are better defensively than anyone on the Oilers.

The Kraken are actually set up to be pretty darn stingy if Grubauer can continue to be a solid tendy for them.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

I've been reading this forum for awhile, and while I do agree with much of what you say as a whole, especially about the Flames, you are all blind with hatred when it comes to the Oilers. Yes, I am an Oilers fan, and as an oilers fan, I am not blown away by the off season... however, I also can see how much the team has improved especially on the forward depth, something you guys have mocked for years. Now we sign our best Dman to a multi year contract locking in the core of the team for 4+ years (McD, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Nurse) and all u hear is criticism of Holland.

You can call me Homer Simpson if you like, but I like the Oilers this year to be a top 10 team at the minimum, maybe top 5. I haven't said that ever in past seasons.

While I will agree with you that it is nice for your team to have those players locked up for 4 + years, I do not think that the Nurse contract is a very good one for the Oilers. I was chatting with an Oilers fan over a fire before this contract was signed, I was saying how I was impressed with Nurse progress over the past few seasons (I do believe he has dramatically improved). The Oilers fan was saying how he didn’t want them to sign Nurse for the rumoured $9 per year.

We both thought there was no way they would sign him for that much. And agreed that closer to $7 would be a reasonable number. Anyways, I don’t hate the player, i just think the overpay on this deal is crazy. I honestly don’t think he would have got that money if he was a UFA.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Maybe YOU haven't said it but we hear it every offseason by some Oilerboi. The offseason is Oiler heaven. Dream big and enjoy this time while the games aren't being played.

Top 5 team lol.

Did that guy complaining about how hard we are on the Oilers actually say Top 5? Holy moly……

[browna]

Death, taxes and an Oiler fan wandering in to troll for reactions on CP in the middle of the summer.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by browna

Death, taxes and an Oiler fan wandering in to troll for reactions on CP in the middle of the summer.

"I hate the Oilers as much or more than anyone, but . . ."