Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Based on what, exactly?
These attempts to quantify the probability are so annoying because they are totally arbitrary and not at all informative. Here is an equally valid assertion...
Chances the Flames aquire Eichel... 99.9%
How believable is either of these?
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You know how I know that 0.01% and 99.9% are pure guesswork? You didn't show your work.
The real answer is 189% chance that Eichel becomes a Flame this off-season. How do I know this.
First, you start off with the fact that Buffalo can't bring him back - we know this value as a perfect 100% that Eichel will be traded.
Now there are 32 teams this year (maybe that's why you two couldn't figure out the math in this case - you forgot to add the extra team!). Out of those 32 teams, we know that Vegas and LA have both dropped out. That's 6.25%. I will round down 6 percent just to keep the math even more simple - Flames increased their chances by 6%
We know the teams that are certainly not chasing Eichel - Arizona, Seattle (that new team that screwed up your math!), Columbus, Detroit, San Jose (thanks to their atrociously 283% over-priced contracts - another math problem with that one that I will show my work for at another time), Detroit, Ottawa and the Ducks (though the Ducks don't really understand the math either as they were in talks, but it is impossible to happen - a perfect 0% chance, in fact). So that's 8 teams, with a weighting of 25%.
However, those 8 teams also have the most cap space available to make the deals necessary - so they will steal percentage points from the rest of the teams involved. Right now (it may change when you do this calculation, so don't bother checking it yourself) they have a combined 53% of the available cap hit. Remember that number, it becomes important later.
Next, we can eliminate the bona fide contenders. Tampa is not going to change their core. Washington has stated that acquiring Eichel may interfere with Ovechkin's desire to beat Gretzky's all-time goal scoring record, for which he has a 52.88% chance of accomplishing. Pittsburgh doesn't work - they don't have the assets, and though I love Crosby, Eichel is worth 342% more (again, I don't want to confuse everyone by more mathematical computation than necessary) - so they're out. Chicago made their moves and need a goalie, thanks to Fleury's 99.943% chance at retirement, and the 31.94% contract premium on Jones' contract. They're out. Colorado was going to let Landeskog go and try to acquire Eichel, but MacKinnon told them that if Landeskog left, it would leave the rest of the team sulking for the first 43% of the season, and even Eichel's cute curls wouldn't be enough to make more than a 5% difference there.
Carolina and Florida play in cities that don't work in this case. Everyone knows that curly-haired people can't survive in hot and humid conditions, as their hair has the potential to tighten-up and grow into their brains. They did get permission to speak to Eichel's agent, and the agent did say that there was a 0.01% chance that Eichel would shave his head (maybe this is the number that confused CroCop?). So they're both 99.9% out (aha, I think I figured out Textcritic's mistake too!).
Minnesota looks to have dropped out, though we can't be certain of the number. In order to be certain of the number, we must first solve for x. So we make an equation: "X=DULL". What we know: D = Defensive team? 100%. Unapologetic at it? We know they have never apologized to their fans for playing incredibly boring hockey. Lacking Lustre - there is no lustre in their game. With this, we know that Eichel is the antithesis to their identity, and were merely trying to drive up their price, but being rather too boring at that and it didn't work at all. They are 100% out, so they're attempt merely took out the idiotic teams that fell for this manoeuvre (they should really get a GM like Treliving who is really strong at this - evidenced at how he drove prices up on the Oilers every off-season - Hyman 7 years! haha). Sorry Boston, NYI and Nashville - you were all fooled, but once you are out, you can not be pulled back in!. This brings it to 13%.
Who's left? Winnipeg, St. Louis and Dallas? Well, Winnipeg also got permission to speak to Eichel's agents, and they told Shovelonmydayoff that Eichel has reconsidered and is getting the fusion surgical procedure after all, and that he has renounced his trade request. Chevroletdanceoff believed it, and has been seen walking around having a bigger smirk on his face than Steve Tambellini did on Hall's draft day, being so proud to select 1st overall, after which he went to get every finger on his right hand sized for all the Stanley Cup rings that were sure to come. However, Shoveaforkinitoff is known to gossip worse than David Staples and Bob Staufer about who Katz is casting on his genuine leather imitation couch, and Dallas, New Jersey and Philadelphia all believed him. That's a further 13%!!
So who's left now? Calgary, Rangers, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
Let's start with the most likely - Toronto. People don't know this (but they were the first team interested in Eichel). However, Montreal took them out in embarrassing fashion, and they decided that they need some meat. They went and measured Eichel's forearms, and decided that Ritchie was much closer to Popeye than Eichel was. Fun fact: Dubas grew up never watching a single episode of Masters of the Universe, but instead, was relegated to old comics of Popeye the Sailor Man, and to this day, the leafs are contractually obligated to eat 250g of Spinach every day, and their off-season regime is involves only intensive forearm training, which actually explains Mathew's shot!). They're out! %3 difference.
Montreal - well, they just finished their Cinderella run, and they feel like bona fide contenders (even though they have an actual 22.3% chance of making the playoffs next season). Even though, they decided to some kicking where Eichel was concerned - namely these cute little puppies that Eichel was looking after. Eichel didn't like it, and told them to get out. Bergevin didn't like Eichel's morals, so he left immediately, half disgusted by Eichel's lack of evilness, but also because he hadn't eaten for a couple of months (fun fact: many snakes only need to eat every few months), and was feeling peckish for fresh newborn babies. Another 3%
Vancouver was definitely interested, but the numbers scared Benning too much. It is well known that he only likes to acquire expensive players that don't score much, so another 3%!
Edmonton. They did inquire with Buffalo, and almost had a deal done by agreeing to 3 1st round picks. However, those are nearly guaranteed to become 3 1st overall picks (98.327%), and they simply felt that Eichel was not worth 3 McDavids. They then said: "5 of anything that is not McDavid or Draisaitl". Buffalo haven't responded yet. In fact, the entire hold-up on the trade front is that Adams started laughing at that offer... but hasn't been able to stop. Nothing has worked so far, including watching Bergevin's disturbing home movies that permanently damage people emotionally for life. I would say it is 3%... but it is actually higher, since the only team left is the Rangers, but they only know the official phone line for Buffalo, and not Bergevin's cellphone. Holland is still patiently waiting for a reply from Adams, holding the phone, and admittedly a little cross-eyed by now as he has been drinking unfiltered Edmonton water. The Rangers keep trying, but they keep getting a busy signal, and once Adams finally recovers, the Rangers will have moved on.
So you start with 100%, you add up 32 teams and you are at 132%. Then you minus the 6.25, rounded down to 6%, and you get 126%. Add SJ's 283% overpriced contracts to arrive at 409%. Minus 25% for the 8 teams (we need to minus it this time since we added the other teams last time - citation is FreakofNature's 3rd Law), gives you 384%. However, we have to add the 8 for the 8 teams, so that's 392%. Minus the 53% of available cap space tied-up in the NHL on terrible teams that are setting their sights on Wright, that leaves you with at 339%. You have to further reduce this by Ovechkin's theorem of passing Gretzky of 52.88 (rounded to 53) giving you 286%. Now we have to subtract the percentage between Crosby and Eichel, which is universally known value of 342% (age related mostly), and it leaves us at -56. The inverse number to a positive would be 65, so we are at 65% now. Add Fleury's 99.943 (rounded to 100) and you get 165%. Minus the coefficient of the entire locker room in the lesser Rockies sulking (43% sulk factor) to bring the percentage to 123%, but adding back the irresistible cute-curl uplift factor, and we arrive at 128%. Add Eichel's propensity to shave his head with both Florida and Carolina being 'out', and you arrive at 228%. Add another 100% from Minnesota's faux-interest, and we are at 328%, minus 13% for all the idiot teams believing the overly-dull Minnesota franchise, and we are at 313%. Minus 13% for a further reduction of 4 teams, but don't forget to add the hidden negative that is known as Katz's Kasting Kouch - that's a huge negative, coming in at -229% (scientifically calibrated) - 71% chance so far.
To allow some of this to process, I will start the next proof in this next paragraph (and to help you avoid serious eye-strain - time to get up and rub your eyes with some ice-cubes - 88% improvement!).
So we are at 71% (after taking some time off to clean some greasy stains - I accidentally sat on that sofa! It is like a black hole that sucks you in). Add 22% for Montreal's misplaced playoff hopes - 93%. Another 3% for them being out - 96%, however it is an automatic 50% penalty for every soul Bergevin steals, so we are down to -496%. However, we apply the law of no negatives and simplify down -496 = +946 = 9(4+6)= 90%. This whole Bergevin being a monster thing really causes a lot more work.
Oops.. I almost forgot about Toronto there for a second. We have to include the 250g of spinach. When we apply the coversion, while adding their 3% share being out of it, we arrive at 122%. (I would show proof of spinach conversion, but you can just look it up - most of you who are reading this are very familiar with this conversion, except those of you who may not be on the metric system yet). Vancouver being out of this raises it another 3% - 125%. We are now at Edmonton's numbers, so 3x1st overall picks that they will receive, minus the 4 1st overall picks they have already received, equals 1, which you then add to them being out of it and arriving at 4, plus the 98% chance at said 1st overall picks, and it is 99%, so we bring it to 224%. Edmonton is officially eliminated from the Eichel sweepstakes (they always seem to be getting eliminated rather easily all the time, funny enough), and we have to weigh the negative value of every one of their 5 remaining least worst players after excluding their only two best players, which brings us down to 181%. All that is left to account for is how many days on hold the Rangers are waiting for Mr. "My parents couldn't spell Kevin" Kevyn Adams to stop laughing, and as of tomorrow, (which tomorrow it will be after you finally reach then end of this post) at 189%. That's the chances the Flames have of acquiring Eichel.
Maybe I should have provided the proof equation that would have solved this in one line first, but at least we can be 100% confident that the above proof does in fact equal the following proof:
1 Stanley Cup = 100%
1989 - eliminate and reduce to Y2K error factor = 89%
Add them to achieve 189%
